John Mearsheimer The Palestinian Genocide Cut_Subs 1

nikola Никола Михайлов

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00:00:00Professor, thank you for doing this.

00:00:02The arc of, and it's not the topic of today's conversation,

00:00:05but the arc of your career as someone who's just watched it pretty carefully

00:00:08all of these years, you've wound up where I think all of us want to be,

00:00:11which is universally respected, regarded as an oracle.

00:00:15It must be sort of nice to look back and be vindicated.

00:00:18So anyway, so I'm honored to have you.

00:00:21Where are we in Ukraine right now?

00:00:23Well, we're in deep trouble if you mean the United States and Ukraine.

00:00:30You talk about we.

00:00:50The fact is that the Russians are winning the war,

00:00:55and there's no way that Ukraine can rescue the situation.

00:01:00If you look at the balance of power in terms of weaponry and in terms of manpower,

00:01:05the number of soldiers that each side has, the Ukrainians are in a hopeless situation.

00:01:11And furthermore, they're heavily dependent on the West for support.

00:01:15And President Trump has made it clear that he's not going to refill the Biden pipeline

00:01:20once all the weaponry in that pipeline runs out.

00:01:24So the Ukrainians are doomed.

00:01:26And if you look at what's happening on the battlefield,

00:01:28it's quite clear that the Ukrainians understand that.

00:01:32Their defenses are slowly but steadily collapsing.

00:01:36Now, one might say, well, can't we get a negotiated settlement?

00:01:40Can't we bring this war to an end?

00:01:42And the fact is that neither the Ukrainians nor the West,

00:01:46and here we're talking mainly about the Europeans,

00:01:48is willing to cut a deal that's acceptable to the Russians.

00:01:53So there's no way you're going to have a diplomatic settlement to this war.

00:01:58It's going to be settled on the battlefield,

00:02:00and the Russians are going to win an ugly victory,

00:02:03and you're going to have a frozen conflict.

00:02:06Why can't you have a negotiated settlement?

00:02:10Because Russia has a set of demands.

00:02:13There are three main demands, and I'll spell them out in a second.

00:02:16But they are unacceptable to the Ukrainians.

00:02:19They're unacceptable to the West.

00:02:22Donald Trump may find them acceptable,

00:02:25but he's surrounded by people in his administration,

00:02:29and it's certainly true in the American foreign policy establishment,

00:02:32who wouldn't accept those demands.

00:02:34And the big three demands are, number one,

00:02:37that Ukraine has to be a neutral state.

00:02:41It cannot be a NATO,

00:02:43and it cannot have a security guarantee from the United States

00:02:47or from the West more generally.

00:02:48So it has to be neutral.

00:02:50Second is that Ukraine cannot have a significant offensive military capability.

00:02:59Ukraine has to be demilitarized to the point

00:03:02where it doesn't present a threat to Russia.

00:03:05And then third, and maybe most important of all,

00:03:09the Ukrainians and the West have to accept the fact

00:03:12that Russia has annexed Crimea

00:03:15and those four oblasts in eastern one-fifth of Ukraine

00:03:20that they now almost occupy.

00:03:23So in other words, you're asking Ukraine to give up about 20% of its territory,

00:03:29and the Ukrainians won't do that,

00:03:31and they won't agree not to be a NATO,

00:03:34and they will not agree to disarm in some meaningful way.

00:03:38So there's no way you get a settlement.

00:03:40So, but there will be a settlement by your description

00:03:45because there will be a victory,

00:03:47so there will just be,

00:03:48it's not an official settlement,

00:03:49but there will be a new status quo

00:03:51in which Russia controls a fifth of what was Ukraine,

00:03:56and that's just going to happen.

00:03:58So why wouldn't you want to get out of that

00:04:00with as little destruction as possible?

00:04:03Well, you're going to get an armistice in all likelihood,

00:04:06and this is why we say you'll have a frozen conflict

00:04:10that will present all sorts of problems moving down the road.

00:04:14I have long argued that the Ukrainians should cut a deal now

00:04:19because what's going to happen

00:04:22is the Russians are going to end up taking more territory,

00:04:25and the Russians have made it clear

00:04:27that any territory they take, they'll keep.

00:04:30And furthermore, more Ukrainians are going to die

00:04:33the longer the war goes on.

00:04:35So if you believe like I do,

00:04:37and many people do,

00:04:38that Ukraine is losing,

00:04:39the smart thing to do is cut a deal now

00:04:41and minimize your losses,

00:04:43both in terms of territory

00:04:45and people killed on the battlefield.

00:04:47But you just can't sell that argument.

00:04:49Why can't you sell that argument?

00:04:52I think it's probably nationalism

00:04:55in the case of the Ukrainians.

00:04:57The Ukrainians view the Russians as existential threat,

00:05:01and they're willing to fight and die in huge numbers.

00:05:04They're willing to make incredible sacrifices

00:05:07to do everything they can to win this war,

00:05:09and they just won't quit.

00:05:11And in terms of the West, it's easy for the West.

00:05:14So I just want to say,

00:05:14I understand that and respect that.

00:05:16First, I think they're wrong,

00:05:17but I think it's self-defeating,

00:05:19but I certainly think it's honorable,

00:05:21those impulses.

00:05:22But I don't understand the West's stake in this exactly.

00:05:26Well, I don't believe the West has a strategic stake in this

00:05:30for one second,

00:05:31but the Russophobia in the West is so powerful

00:05:36at this point in time,

00:05:38especially among the elites in Europe

00:05:41and in the United States,

00:05:43that getting them to concede

00:05:47that the Russians have won this war

00:05:51or are going to win this war is just unacceptable.

00:05:53And have legitimate security concerns on their border.

00:05:56I mean that...

00:05:57They're not allowed,

00:05:58the Russians are not allowed

00:05:59to have legitimate security concerns

00:06:02in the minds of most Western elites.

00:06:05Why?

00:06:07I don't know.

00:06:08It befuddles me.

00:06:11If you look at the Russian reaction

00:06:13to NATO expansion into Ukraine,

00:06:18which I believe is the taproot of this war,

00:06:21it's analogous to America's Monroe Doctrine.

00:06:25The United States,

00:06:26under those circumstances,

00:06:27would allow the Soviet Union

00:06:30to put missiles in Cuba

00:06:31or to locate a naval base

00:06:33at Cienfuegos in Cuba.

00:06:35That was just unacceptable.

00:06:36This is what the Monroe Doctrine is all about.

00:06:39We'd never allow China

00:06:40to station military forces

00:06:42in Mexico or in Canada.

00:06:46But yet we think we have the right

00:06:49to move NATO far enough eastward

00:06:52to include Ukraine

00:06:53and then put NATO assets,

00:06:56including American military assets,

00:06:58in Ukraine.

00:06:59And this is not of concern to the Russians.

00:07:02They shouldn't care.

00:07:03They should recognize

00:07:05that Ukraine has the right

00:07:06to do whatever it wants.

00:07:07NATO has the right

00:07:08to expand wherever it wants.

00:07:10And Russia has no say in the matter.

00:07:12The Russians, of course,

00:07:13don't accept this

00:07:14because they have

00:07:15a Monroe Doctrine of their own.

00:07:17But we can't get it

00:07:19through our thick skulls

00:07:20that this is foolish thinking

00:07:23on our part

00:07:24and is destined to lead to trouble

00:07:26as it has.

00:07:28It's interesting that the standard

00:07:30that U.S. foreign policymakers

00:07:33apply to Russia

00:07:35is different from a standard

00:07:36they'd apply to any other country,

00:07:37including China

00:07:38and even North Korea.

00:07:40They don't have the same level

00:07:42of emotion

00:07:43about any other place.

00:07:45It's Russia, Ukraine.

00:07:47And I find it baffling

00:07:49because on some level,

00:07:50this is, as you said at the outset,

00:07:51this is not about

00:07:52America's strategic interests.

00:07:54We don't really have many there.

00:07:56This is about

00:07:57an almost overwhelming

00:07:59emotional response

00:08:01from our leadership class

00:08:03to this conflict,

00:08:04to this region.

00:08:06I think it's weird.

00:08:08Yeah, yeah.

00:08:09Well, I think also

00:08:10at this point in time,

00:08:11we have convinced ourselves,

00:08:13both the Europeans

00:08:14and the Americans,

00:08:15that Russia is a mortal threat

00:08:17to dominate all of Europe.

00:08:19This is a ridiculous argument.

00:08:21Do you think it is ridiculous?

00:08:22It's a ridiculous argument.

00:08:23As you have seen,

00:08:25the war started in 2022.

00:08:28We're well over five years

00:08:30into this war.

00:08:31And the Russians have had

00:08:33a very difficult time

00:08:35conquering the eastern

00:08:37one-fifth of Ukraine.

00:08:39Just think about that.

00:08:40Over three plus years,

00:08:42they have been unable

00:08:43to conquer all of the territory

00:08:46in those four oblasts

00:08:48that they've annexed.

00:08:49Please tell me how this army

00:08:51is going to overrun

00:08:52all of Ukraine,

00:08:53then overrun eastern Europe,

00:08:55and then overrun western Europe.

00:08:57This is a laughable argument.

00:08:59Furthermore, if the Russians

00:09:01are foolish enough

00:09:02to try to occupy western Ukraine,

00:09:04they're going to find themselves

00:09:06in a quagmire.

00:09:08They're going to find themselves

00:09:10dealing with a huge amount

00:09:11of resistance

00:09:12from all of those

00:09:13ethnic Ukrainians

00:09:15in the western part of Ukraine

00:09:16who hate Russians.

00:09:18This is why I don't think

00:09:19Putin is going to even try

00:09:21to conquer the western half.

00:09:23Much less Poland and Romania

00:09:24and the rest.

00:09:25Exactly.

00:09:27Their view on that, by the way,

00:09:29in terms of occupying eastern Europe

00:09:31is we've been there,

00:09:32done that,

00:09:32and it did not work out very well.

00:09:34Remember, they occupied

00:09:35eastern Europe roughly

00:09:37from 1945 to the early 1990s

00:09:40when they pulled out

00:09:41after the Cold War ended.

00:09:42They had to invade Hungary in 56.

00:09:44They had to invade Czechoslovakia in 68.

00:09:47They had to put down

00:09:48a major insurrection

00:09:49in East Germany in 1953.

00:09:52They almost went into Poland

00:09:54three times.

00:09:55They had their hands full

00:09:57dealing with the Romanians

00:09:58and the Albanians

00:09:59and the Yugoslavs.

00:10:01I mean, the idea

00:10:02that a country like Russia

00:10:03is going to, you know,

00:10:05invade and occupy

00:10:07and run the politics

00:10:09of countries in eastern Europe

00:10:10is a remarkably foolish idea.

00:10:14And again,

00:10:14they don't even have

00:10:15the military capability

00:10:16to do that.

00:10:17But that is the idea.

00:10:18And when you talk

00:10:19to Europeans about it,

00:10:20as I often do,

00:10:21they say that Putin's aim

00:10:24is to restore the Soviet empire.

00:10:27And he said that

00:10:28and, you know,

00:10:29just listen to what he says.

00:10:30He wants,

00:10:30he pines for the Soviet era

00:10:32and he wants to restore it.

00:10:34He's never said that.

00:10:35In fact,

00:10:36he said that, you know,

00:10:37he can understand

00:10:38why someone

00:10:39in his or her heart

00:10:41pines for the Soviet Union,

00:10:43but in his or her head,

00:10:45it makes absolutely no sense.

00:10:47He said that.

00:10:48The idea that you can recreate

00:10:50the Soviet Union,

00:10:51number one,

00:10:52and then two,

00:10:53recreate the Soviet empire

00:10:55is a pipe dream.

00:10:56And you might not like

00:10:58Vladimir Putin,

00:10:59but he is a very smart man.

00:11:01He is a first class strategist

00:11:03and he surely understands

00:11:04that, you know,

00:11:05the idea of recreating

00:11:07the Soviet Union

00:11:08or the Soviet empire

00:11:09makes no sense at all.

00:11:11You spent 10 years

00:11:12in the U.S. military,

00:11:13graduated West Point

00:11:14during the Cold War.

00:11:16Yes.

00:11:16So your life for 10 years

00:11:18was focused on the Soviets,

00:11:20of course.

00:11:21No question.

00:11:22No question.

00:11:23So that's 10 years.

00:11:24That's a long time

00:11:25in your young life.

00:11:27How were you able

00:11:28to transition mentally

00:11:31from viewing Russia

00:11:33as an enemy

00:11:33to viewing them

00:11:34as, you know,

00:11:35another country?

00:11:36It's an interesting question.

00:11:37Why weren't others

00:11:38able to do that?

00:11:40Well, a lot were,

00:11:41but a lot weren't.

00:11:43I think that what happened

00:11:47was that during the Cold War,

00:11:50when I started to think

00:11:51about the U.S.-Soviet competition,

00:11:54the subject that I got interested in

00:11:56was the conventional balance

00:11:57of forces in Europe.

00:11:59It was the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance.

00:12:02And I wrote my dissertation

00:12:04on the subject

00:12:05of conventional deterrence,

00:12:07and it focused on

00:12:08the NATO-Warsaw Pact balance.

00:12:10And my argument was,

00:12:12which was very controversial

00:12:13at the time,

00:12:14was that the Soviets

00:12:15were not 10 feet tall.

00:12:18And actually,

00:12:19if a war did break out

00:12:20in Central Europe,

00:12:22the West or NATO

00:12:23would do very well,

00:12:25that we would hold off

00:12:26the Soviets,

00:12:27that they would not win

00:12:28a quick and decisive victory,

00:12:30which was the conventional wisdom

00:12:33at the time.

00:12:34So in a very important way,

00:12:36I was engaged

00:12:37in threat deflation.

00:12:39I always thought

00:12:40when you looked

00:12:41at the Soviet Union,

00:12:42this is during the latter part

00:12:44of the Cold War,

00:12:45when I was coming of age,

00:12:46that we greatly overestimated

00:12:49the threat

00:12:50and that the Soviet Union

00:12:52was not 10 feet tall.

00:12:54So once the Cold War ends

00:12:56and then we segue

00:12:57into the unipolar moment,

00:13:00I'm already moving

00:13:01in that direction.

00:13:02And then during the 1990s,

00:13:05the Soviet Union,

00:13:06which has become Russia,

00:13:07is a total basket case.

00:13:09I mean,

00:13:09it's the only threat

00:13:11that it represents

00:13:12is to itself.

00:13:13It doesn't represent

00:13:14a threat to the West.

00:13:16And in fact, Tucker,

00:13:18NATO expansion,

00:13:19which really gets going

00:13:21in 1994,

00:13:22that's when Bill Clinton

00:13:23decides to expand NATO,

00:13:25is not designed

00:13:26to contain Russia

00:13:27because there is

00:13:29no Russian threat.

00:13:31So then Putin comes to power

00:13:32and what happens

00:13:33from about 2000

00:13:35up until the present

00:13:36is that the West,

00:13:39and here we're talking

00:13:40about the United States

00:13:41as well, of course,

00:13:42becomes increasingly

00:13:45Russophobic

00:13:46and hostile to Putin.

00:13:49And I think it's in large part

00:13:50because Putin stands up to us.

00:13:52I think that we get used

00:13:55to the idea,

00:13:56certainly in the 1990s,

00:13:57that we call the shots.

00:13:58It's the unipolar moment.

00:13:59And when we tell countries

00:14:01to jump,

00:14:02their only question

00:14:03is how high.

00:14:04And we get away with that

00:14:06to some extent

00:14:07with Putin to begin with.

00:14:09But then he begins

00:14:10to play hardball with us.

00:14:12And he gives a very famous speech

00:14:13in Munich in 2007

00:14:15where he throws down the gauntlet.

00:14:18And from 2007 forward,

00:14:20relations really deteriorate.

00:14:24And as they deteriorate,

00:14:25the Russophobia

00:14:26comes racing to the fore

00:14:28and remains firmly

00:14:30in place today.

00:14:32What is the point

00:14:33of NATO now?

00:14:36Why do we still have NATO?

00:14:37What's its objective?

00:14:39Well, I think

00:14:40if you asked most Europeans

00:14:41and even many Americans

00:14:43in the American

00:14:43foreign policy establishment,

00:14:45the argument would be

00:14:46that NATO serves

00:14:48as a pacifier.

00:14:50In other words,

00:14:51it keeps the peace

00:14:52in Europe.

00:14:53The United States

00:14:55is the most powerful state

00:14:57in NATO.

00:14:58And the United States

00:15:00sits on top

00:15:02of all the European countries.

00:15:03It provides security

00:15:05for them.

00:15:06It provides a nuclear umbrella

00:15:08for them.

00:15:09And that prevents

00:15:10the European countries

00:15:13from engaging

00:15:14in security competition

00:15:16with each other.

00:15:17So we are a pacifying force.

00:15:21And this is the reason

00:15:22that the Europeans today...

00:15:23To prevent

00:15:24intra-European conflict?

00:15:25Contra-European conflict,

00:15:26right?

00:15:27Well, if you think about it,

00:15:29up until 1945

00:15:32when World War II ends,

00:15:35you had had two world wars

00:15:36in the first half

00:15:37of the 20th century.

00:15:38And then if you go back

00:15:39in time,

00:15:40European countries

00:15:40have been fighting

00:15:41against each other

00:15:42almost since

00:15:45the beginning of time.

00:15:46Well, that's why

00:15:46there are so many

00:15:47European countries

00:15:48and so many languages

00:15:49and different

00:15:50distinct cultures.

00:15:51You might also make

00:15:53the argument

00:15:53that's why Europe

00:15:54was so successful

00:15:55because they were...

00:15:56You can certainly

00:15:56make that argument

00:15:57and you can make

00:15:58the argument

00:15:58that that's why

00:15:59they were able

00:16:00to conquer

00:16:00huge chunks

00:16:02of the planet

00:16:02and create

00:16:03these empires

00:16:04because they were

00:16:05very good

00:16:06at projecting

00:16:07military power.

00:16:08These were martial societies

00:16:09before they became

00:16:10tourist destinations.

00:16:11Yes.

00:16:12But anyway,

00:16:13what happens

00:16:13during the Cold War

00:16:15is the Soviets

00:16:16dominate one side

00:16:17of Europe

00:16:17and we dominate

00:16:19the other side

00:16:20of Europe.

00:16:21And as long as

00:16:21those two great powers

00:16:23are dominating

00:16:24those two halves

00:16:26of Europe,

00:16:26the countries

00:16:27located below them

00:16:29cannot fight

00:16:30among themselves.

00:16:31Okay?

00:16:32So what happens

00:16:33when the Cold War

00:16:34ends in 1989

00:16:36and then into

00:16:37the 1990s

00:16:38is that we decide

00:16:40that we're going

00:16:41to expand

00:16:42NATO eastward.

00:16:43And as I said

00:16:44to you,

00:16:44it's very important

00:16:45to understand

00:16:46that when we expand

00:16:47NATO eastward

00:16:48in the 90s

00:16:48and then

00:16:49the early 2000s,

00:16:50we're not aiming

00:16:51at containing Russia.

00:16:53What we're interested

00:16:55in doing

00:16:55is taking

00:16:57the pacifier,

00:16:58the American pacifier

00:16:59that sits over

00:17:00Western Europe

00:17:01and putting it

00:17:02over Eastern Europe

00:17:04and making Europe

00:17:05one giant

00:17:07zone of peace.

00:17:09And the Europeans

00:17:10liked that idea.

00:17:12You want to remember

00:17:12after 1989,

00:17:14lots of Europeans

00:17:15were very worried

00:17:16about Germany,

00:17:17which reunified

00:17:19when the Cold War

00:17:20ended.

00:17:20And you can understand

00:17:21why Europeans

00:17:22were very nervous.

00:17:24Yes.

00:17:24But as long

00:17:25as the Americans

00:17:26stay in Europe,

00:17:28as long as NATO

00:17:30remains intact,

00:17:31the pacifier

00:17:33is there.

00:17:34You know,

00:17:34most people

00:17:35don't realize this,

00:17:36but the Soviets

00:17:37and then the Russians

00:17:38were perfectly content

00:17:41to see the United States

00:17:43remain in Europe

00:17:44and for NATO

00:17:45to remain intact

00:17:47after the Cold War

00:17:49because the Soviets

00:17:50slash Russians

00:17:51understood

00:17:52that we served

00:17:54as a pacifier.

00:17:55What they didn't want,

00:17:57and they made this

00:17:58very clear,

00:17:59was NATO expansion.

00:18:01And of course,

00:18:02what we did

00:18:03starting in 1994

00:18:05was to expand

00:18:06NATO eastward,

00:18:08again,

00:18:08to move the pacifier

00:18:10from over just

00:18:11Western Europe

00:18:12to over all

00:18:14of Europe.

00:18:15And that is what

00:18:16has produced

00:18:17the catastrophe

00:18:18in Ukraine.

00:18:19By the time

00:18:19NATO gets to the Baltics

00:18:21and then we start

00:18:21talking openly

00:18:22as the Biden administration

00:18:23did just openly,

00:18:24like at press conferences

00:18:25about moving

00:18:26NATO into Ukraine,

00:18:28it's very obvious

00:18:30that that's going to

00:18:31trigger a conflict

00:18:31with Russia

00:18:32at some point.

00:18:33You know,

00:18:33how could it not?

00:18:35Why didn't anyone

00:18:36pause and say,

00:18:37okay,

00:18:37NATO's great,

00:18:38obviously there's

00:18:39a massive budget,

00:18:40we're all getting

00:18:40richer from NATO

00:18:41also,

00:18:43but let's balance

00:18:45that against

00:18:45like a war

00:18:46with Russia.

00:18:47We don't want that.

00:18:48Did anyone

00:18:48raise that point?

00:18:50A couple points.

00:18:51Just to get

00:18:52the dates right,

00:18:53the second big

00:18:55tranche of NATO

00:18:56expansion,

00:18:56which brings

00:18:57the Baltic states

00:18:58in,

00:18:58is 2004.

00:19:00Yep.

00:19:00The first big

00:19:01tranche is 1999.

00:19:02That's Poland,

00:19:04Hungary,

00:19:04and the Czech Republic,

00:19:0599.

00:19:06Then 2004

00:19:07is when the Baltic states

00:19:09come in.

00:19:102008 is when

00:19:11the critical decision

00:19:13is made,

00:19:14April 2008,

00:19:15to bring Ukraine

00:19:16into NATO.

00:19:17Okay?

00:19:18To get to the heart

00:19:19of your question,

00:19:21what's very interesting

00:19:22is if you go back

00:19:23and look at many

00:19:24of the planning documents

00:19:25from the 90s

00:19:27about NATO expansion,

00:19:29people recognize

00:19:31at the time

00:19:32that Ukraine

00:19:33is a special case

00:19:34and it will be

00:19:36a huge source

00:19:38of trouble

00:19:39if we move

00:19:40NATO into Ukraine.

00:19:42So you can get away

00:19:43with Poland,

00:19:43you can even get away

00:19:44with the Baltic states,

00:19:45but Ukraine

00:19:46is a different matter

00:19:47and it's very important

00:19:49to understand

00:19:50that we understood

00:19:51that from the get-go.

00:19:53So the question

00:19:54then becomes,

00:19:55which you're asking,

00:19:56is why did we do it,

00:19:57right?

00:19:58What's going on here?

00:19:59Why didn't we just back off?

00:20:01And I think the answer is

00:20:03we thought we could

00:20:04shove it down their throat.

00:20:06You want to understand,

00:20:07they opposed

00:20:08the 99 expansion,

00:20:10the first tranche.

00:20:11We just shoved it

00:20:12down their throat.

00:20:13Yeah, what's Boris Yeltsin

00:20:14going to do about it?

00:20:15That's right.

00:20:15That's exactly right.

00:20:17What's he going to do about it?

00:20:18And then 2004,

00:20:20Putin's in control now,

00:20:21we shove it down their face,

00:20:23down their throat again.

00:20:25So in 2008,

00:20:26immediately after NATO says

00:20:29at the Bucharest,

00:20:30April 2008,

00:20:31NATO-Bucharest summit,

00:20:33immediately after he says

00:20:34that NATO says

00:20:37that Ukraine

00:20:38will be brought into NATO,

00:20:39Putin makes it manifestly clear

00:20:41that this is unacceptable,

00:20:43that this is an existential threat

00:20:45and that Russia

00:20:46will not let it happen.

00:20:48And by the way,

00:20:49at that April 2008,

00:20:52NATO summit,

00:20:53they said they were

00:20:54not only going to bring Ukraine

00:20:55into NATO,

00:20:56they're going to bring

00:20:57Georgia into NATO.

00:20:59That's April 2008.

00:21:00A war breaks out

00:21:01in Georgia

00:21:02in August of 2008

00:21:04over this very issue.

00:21:07So you would expect us

00:21:08to back off at that point,

00:21:10but we don't back off.

00:21:11In fact,

00:21:12we double down.

00:21:13And then when the crisis

00:21:14first starts,

00:21:16this is in 2014,

00:21:19February 22nd, 2014,

00:21:21that's when the crisis starts.

00:21:23That's when the Russians

00:21:24take Crimea.

00:21:25This is when you understand

00:21:27or should understand

00:21:28the Russians mean business.

00:21:29Do we back off?

00:21:31Do we try to accommodate

00:21:32the Russians in any way?

00:21:34Absolutely not.

00:21:35We plow forward.

00:21:37And then, of course,

00:21:37we get the war in 2022.

00:21:39And you ask yourself,

00:21:40why did we do this?

00:21:42And by the way,

00:21:43if you look at the process,

00:21:46the decision-making process

00:21:48after Joe Biden

00:21:49moves into the White House

00:21:50in January 2021,

00:21:52January 2021,

00:21:54and then 13 months later,

00:21:56the war breaks out,

00:21:58Biden makes no effort

00:21:59whatsoever

00:22:00to accommodate the Russians.

00:22:03So again,

00:22:03the question is why?

00:22:04What's going on here?

00:22:05Yes.

00:22:06We're just going to

00:22:07shove it down their throat.

00:22:08We think we're Godzilla.

00:22:10We think it's still

00:22:11the unipolar moment.

00:22:13But why would you want to?

00:22:14Even if you have

00:22:14absolute power,

00:22:15which of course doesn't exist,

00:22:17but let's say

00:22:17you believed you had it,

00:22:18why would you want to do that?

00:22:20I believe that

00:22:21once the decision is made

00:22:23in 2008

00:22:24that you're going to bring

00:22:26NATO to Ukraine,

00:22:29you're going to bring Ukraine

00:22:30into the alliance,

00:22:32that the idea of backing off

00:22:35is unacceptable

00:22:37to the United States

00:22:38and to the West.

00:22:39You just don't do that.

00:22:41That would be a sign of weakness.

00:22:42And we cannot show weakness.

00:22:44And I think a lot of this thinking

00:22:46has to do with

00:22:46why we won't quit now.

00:22:48One should say

00:22:50to him or herself

00:22:51at this point,

00:22:52it's time to put an end

00:22:53to this war

00:22:54and accept the fact

00:22:55that the Russians

00:22:56have won an ugly victory.

00:22:58But we can't bring ourselves

00:22:59to do that.

00:23:00That would be showing weakness.

00:23:02So instead,

00:23:03we continue to plow on.

00:23:05But in,

00:23:06you know,

00:23:07attempting to show strength,

00:23:08we reveal weakness.

00:23:10I mean,

00:23:10that's my concern

00:23:11is,

00:23:11you know,

00:23:12once you project force

00:23:14and it doesn't work,

00:23:14then you're revealed

00:23:15to the world as weak.

00:23:18The limits of your power

00:23:18are obvious to everybody.

00:23:19It's better to threaten

00:23:21than have,

00:23:22you know,

00:23:22your true power concealed.

00:23:23People can guess

00:23:24at what you can do.

00:23:25But now there's no guessing.

00:23:26We couldn't beat Russia.

00:23:28And that's correct.

00:23:29Right.

00:23:29So we lost a war to Russia.

00:23:32It's a proxy war,

00:23:33but it was a war.

00:23:35And so what does that mean?

00:23:38Well,

00:23:38it is,

00:23:39you know,

00:23:41a devastating defeat

00:23:43for NATO.

00:23:44Yeah.

00:23:44Because we have invested

00:23:45so much

00:23:46in this war.

00:23:48Right.

00:23:50The other problem

00:23:51that we face

00:23:52is that the United States,

00:23:53and this is true

00:23:54of both the Biden

00:23:55and Trump administration,

00:23:56consider China

00:23:58to be

00:23:59the principal threat

00:24:00to the United States.

00:24:01China is a peer competitor.

00:24:03Russia is not

00:24:04a peer competitor.

00:24:05Russia is not

00:24:06a threat

00:24:06to dominate Europe.

00:24:08Russia is not

00:24:08the Soviet Union.

00:24:10China is a peer competitor.

00:24:12It's a threat

00:24:12to dominate Asia.

00:24:14And what we've been

00:24:14trying to do

00:24:15since 2011

00:24:17when Hillary Clinton

00:24:18announced it

00:24:19when she was

00:24:20Secretary of State

00:24:21is we've been trying

00:24:22to pivot to Asia.

00:24:24But what's happened here

00:24:26is we've got

00:24:26bogged down

00:24:27in Ukraine

00:24:28and now we're bogged

00:24:29down in the Middle East

00:24:31and this makes it difficult

00:24:33to fully pivot

00:24:34to Asia.

00:24:35And this is not

00:24:36in the American

00:24:37national interest.

00:24:38But to make matters

00:24:39even worse,

00:24:41what we have done

00:24:42is we have driven

00:24:43the Russians

00:24:44into the arms

00:24:45of the Chinese.

00:24:47If you think about it,

00:24:47we live in a world

00:24:48where there are

00:24:49three great powers,

00:24:50United States,

00:24:51China,

00:24:51and Russia.

00:24:52If the United States

00:24:53views China

00:24:54as its principal competitor,

00:24:56and the United States

00:24:57is interested

00:24:57in containing China

00:24:59in East Asia,

00:25:00it would make

00:25:01eminently good sense

00:25:02to have Russia

00:25:03on its side

00:25:03of the equation.

00:25:05Instead,

00:25:05what we've done

00:25:06with the Ukraine war

00:25:07is we've driven

00:25:08the Russians

00:25:08and the Chinese

00:25:11closer together.

00:25:12So that's so obvious

00:25:13even to me,

00:25:14a non-specialist,

00:25:15just like,

00:25:16it's obvious,

00:25:17look at a map,

00:25:18that it had to have

00:25:19been obvious

00:25:20to the previous

00:25:21administration

00:25:21but they did it anyway

00:25:22so you have to

00:25:23kind of wonder

00:25:23did they want that?

00:25:24Yeah.

00:25:26I think

00:25:28you're

00:25:29underestimating

00:25:31how much

00:25:32strategic sense

00:25:33the American

00:25:35foreign policy

00:25:35establishment has.

00:25:37So they're just

00:25:37so incompetent

00:25:38they didn't see

00:25:39that coming?

00:25:40Yes.

00:25:41I mean,

00:25:41I'll take it

00:25:42a step further.

00:25:43Come on.

00:25:44Let's talk about China.

00:25:46This is an even

00:25:47bigger issue.

00:25:49The Cold War

00:25:50ends

00:25:50and as you well

00:25:51remember,

00:25:52at the end

00:25:52of the Cold War,

00:25:54China and the

00:25:54United States

00:25:55were basically

00:25:56allied together

00:25:57against the

00:25:58Soviet Union.

00:25:59Of course,

00:25:59that was the

00:26:00whole point.

00:26:00Yeah.

00:26:00Right.

00:26:01So the

00:26:01Cold War

00:26:04ends,

00:26:04Soviet Union

00:26:05disappears

00:26:05and there's

00:26:07no longer

00:26:08any need

00:26:08for us

00:26:09to have

00:26:09a close

00:26:10relationship

00:26:10with China.

00:26:12We don't

00:26:12need them

00:26:12to help

00:26:13contain

00:26:13the Soviet

00:26:14Union.

00:26:15So the

00:26:15question is

00:26:16what do we

00:26:16do with

00:26:17the Chinese

00:26:17moving forward?

00:26:19And economically,

00:26:20China is a

00:26:21backwards

00:26:21country

00:26:22in the

00:26:23early

00:26:231990s.

00:26:25What we

00:26:25do is

00:26:26we adopt

00:26:27a policy

00:26:28of engagement

00:26:29with China.

00:26:31Engagement

00:26:31is explicitly

00:26:33designed

00:26:34to turn

00:26:35China

00:26:35into

00:26:36a very

00:26:37wealthy

00:26:38country.

00:26:39This is a

00:26:40country that

00:26:40has over

00:26:41four times

00:26:42the population

00:26:43of the

00:26:43United States

00:26:44and you're

00:26:45talking about

00:26:46making it

00:26:47very rich.

00:26:48For a

00:26:49realist

00:26:49like me,

00:26:50this is

00:26:51lunacy.

00:26:52You are

00:26:52in effect

00:26:53creating

00:26:54a peer

00:26:54competitor.

00:26:55In fact,

00:26:55you may

00:26:56be creating

00:26:56a country

00:26:57that is

00:26:57more

00:26:58powerful

00:26:58than

00:26:59the

00:26:59United

00:26:59States.

00:27:00But the

00:27:01foreign

00:27:01policy

00:27:02establishment

00:27:02in the

00:27:03United

00:27:03States,

00:27:04almost to

00:27:05a person,

00:27:06including

00:27:06hawks like

00:27:07Zbigniew Brzezinski

00:27:08and Henry

00:27:09Kissinger,

00:27:10said that

00:27:12China can

00:27:13grow

00:27:13economically,

00:27:15we can

00:27:15integrate it

00:27:16into

00:27:17institutions

00:27:18like the

00:27:19World Trade

00:27:19Organization

00:27:20and so

00:27:20forth and

00:27:21so on.

00:27:22And it

00:27:22will become

00:27:23a democracy

00:27:24and we

00:27:25will all

00:27:25live happily

00:27:26ever after.

00:27:28Right?

00:27:28So what we

00:27:29did is

00:27:30that we

00:27:31helped

00:27:32fuel

00:27:33China's

00:27:34phenomenal

00:27:35growth

00:27:36between

00:27:371990

00:27:38and

00:27:392017

00:27:40when it

00:27:41became a

00:27:41great power.

00:27:43You want

00:27:43to remember

00:27:43that when

00:27:44the Cold

00:27:44War ends

00:27:45and then

00:27:45the Soviet

00:27:46Union

00:27:46collapses

00:27:47in December

00:27:48of 1991,

00:27:48we enter

00:27:50the unipolar

00:27:50moment,

00:27:51which by

00:27:51definition

00:27:52means there's

00:27:53one great

00:27:53power on

00:27:54the planet.

00:27:55That's the

00:27:55United States

00:27:56of America.

00:27:57By

00:27:572017,

00:27:59there are

00:27:59three great

00:28:00powers on

00:28:00the planet

00:28:01and one

00:28:02of those

00:28:02three great

00:28:03powers is

00:28:04a peer

00:28:04competitor

00:28:04and we

00:28:05helped

00:28:06create that

00:28:06peer

00:28:07competitor

00:28:07on the

00:28:08foolish

00:28:09belief

00:28:09that

00:28:10if we

00:28:11turned

00:28:12China

00:28:13into a

00:28:13rich

00:28:13country,

00:28:14it would

00:28:14become a

00:28:15liberal

00:28:15democracy

00:28:15and it

00:28:16would

00:28:16become a

00:28:17friend of

00:28:17the United

00:28:17States

00:28:18and it

00:28:18would allow

00:28:19us to

00:28:20run

00:28:20international

00:28:21politics

00:28:22the way

00:28:22we did

00:28:23during

00:28:23unipolarity.

00:28:24This is a

00:28:25remarkably

00:28:26catastrophic

00:28:27decision.

00:28:29It must be

00:28:30strange for you

00:28:30having spent

00:28:31your life

00:28:31in this

00:28:32one field

00:28:33both in

00:28:34the military

00:28:35effectively

00:28:35and then

00:28:36in academia

00:28:37and you've

00:28:38had tenure

00:28:38at Chicago

00:28:39since 82.

00:28:40Is that right?

00:28:41I went to

00:28:41Chicago in

00:28:4282.

00:28:42I got tenure

00:28:43in 1987.

00:28:45So you've

00:28:46been there

00:28:46over 40

00:28:46years working

00:28:47on this

00:28:48suite of

00:28:49topics,

00:28:49this group

00:28:50of topics.

00:28:51When you

00:28:52look around

00:28:52and everybody,

00:28:53even the most

00:28:54famous people

00:28:55in your field

00:28:55are buying

00:28:56into something

00:28:57that stupid,

00:28:59how does

00:28:59that make

00:28:59you feel?

00:29:02Brzezinski

00:29:02and Kissinger

00:29:03are saying

00:29:03things that

00:29:04are just

00:29:04obviously

00:29:05dumb.

00:29:06That must

00:29:06be weird.

00:29:08It's very

00:29:08weird.

00:29:09I remember

00:29:09I debated

00:29:09Zbeg

00:29:10in the early

00:29:112000s at

00:29:12Carnegie

00:29:13in Washington

00:29:13D.C.

00:29:14on whether

00:29:15China could

00:29:16rise peacefully

00:29:17and there's

00:29:18actually a

00:29:18big story

00:29:19in foreign

00:29:20policy,

00:29:20the magazine

00:29:21that has

00:29:21an abbreviated

00:29:23transcript of

00:29:24our debate

00:29:25and I

00:29:27remember

00:29:27Zbeg was

00:29:28arguing that

00:29:29China can

00:29:30rise peacefully

00:29:30and I was

00:29:32arguing that

00:29:32China could

00:29:33not rise

00:29:33peacefully

00:29:33and that

00:29:34our policy

00:29:34of engagement

00:29:35was foolish

00:29:36and as he

00:29:37was speaking

00:29:38and I was

00:29:38sitting on

00:29:39the dais,

00:29:39I was saying

00:29:40to myself,

00:29:40I don't

00:29:41get what's

00:29:42going on

00:29:42here.

00:29:43Zbigniew Brzezinski

00:29:44who's about

00:29:4510 notches

00:29:45to the right

00:29:46of me

00:29:46on almost

00:29:47all foreign

00:29:48policy issues

00:29:49shouldn't be

00:29:50making this

00:29:51argument but

00:29:52he's making

00:29:52this argument

00:29:53and I'm

00:29:55the one

00:29:55who looks

00:29:55like a

00:29:56super hawk

00:29:57when at

00:29:59the end

00:29:59of the

00:30:00Cold War

00:30:00I was

00:30:01more on

00:30:02the dovish

00:30:02side arguing

00:30:03the Soviets

00:30:04were not

00:30:0410 feet

00:30:05tall and of

00:30:06course Big

00:30:06was always

00:30:07arguing the

00:30:07Soviets were

00:30:0810 feet

00:30:09tall.

00:30:09So it

00:30:10was really

00:30:10perplexing

00:30:11and throughout

00:30:12the 90s

00:30:13and throughout

00:30:14the early

00:30:152000s when I

00:30:16argued China

00:30:16could not

00:30:17rise peacefully

00:30:18I could not

00:30:19get a hearing

00:30:19in the United

00:30:20States.

00:30:21People just

00:30:21didn't take

00:30:22me seriously.

00:30:23They'd say

00:30:23John's a very

00:30:24smart guy,

00:30:25he's very

00:30:25entertaining,

00:30:26he's amusing

00:30:26but he's

00:30:27basically crazy

00:30:28when it comes

00:30:28to China.

00:30:29That was the

00:30:30view.

00:30:30Now of course

00:30:31I think everybody

00:30:32understands that

00:30:33I was basically

00:30:34right and they

00:30:34were wrong.

00:30:35It's just

00:30:36but there

00:30:36hasn't I

00:30:37mean if you

00:30:38had a field

00:30:39just pick

00:30:39some other

00:30:39field,

00:30:41structural

00:30:41engineering

00:30:41and if you

00:30:42had America's

00:30:44sort of

00:30:44corpus of

00:30:44structural

00:30:45engineers,

00:30:46they also

00:30:46know each

00:30:46other,

00:30:47the eminent

00:30:47ones are

00:30:47friends and

00:30:49all the

00:30:50bridges they

00:30:50built started

00:30:51to fall

00:30:52down.

00:30:53There would

00:30:53be an

00:30:54immediate

00:30:54reorganization

00:30:55of the

00:30:55field.

00:30:56You would

00:30:56say this

00:30:57just but you

00:30:57don't know

00:30:58what you're

00:30:59doing,

00:30:59look at the

00:30:59results.

00:31:00I don't

00:31:01understand how

00:31:01you could

00:31:02have this

00:31:03many decades

00:31:04of back-to-back

00:31:04foreign policy

00:31:05disasters and

00:31:06not have a

00:31:07wholesale

00:31:07reorganization

00:31:08of the

00:31:09brain

00:31:09trust.

00:31:11I agree.

00:31:12Let me just

00:31:12tell you one

00:31:15other story.

00:31:16Let's go back

00:31:17to the

00:31:171990s,

00:31:18talk about

00:31:19NATO

00:31:19expansion.

00:31:20As I said

00:31:20to you,

00:31:21the Clinton

00:31:21administration

00:31:21made the

00:31:22decision in

00:31:2394.

00:31:24One might

00:31:25think that

00:31:26there was

00:31:26overwhelming

00:31:27support for

00:31:29NATO expansion

00:31:30in the foreign

00:31:30policy establishment.

00:31:32There actually

00:31:33was not.

00:31:34Bill Perry,

00:31:35who was

00:31:36Clinton's

00:31:37secretary

00:31:37of defense,

00:31:38was adamantly

00:31:39opposed to

00:31:40any NATO

00:31:41expansion and

00:31:42thought about

00:31:42resigning as

00:31:43secretary of

00:31:44defense over

00:31:45the issue.

00:31:45The chairman

00:31:46of the

00:31:46Joint Chiefs

00:31:47was opposed.

00:31:48Gene Kirkpatrick,

00:31:50Paul Nitsa,

00:31:51George Kennan.

00:31:52There's a

00:31:53laundry list of

00:31:54prominent people

00:31:55who were

00:31:56opposed to

00:31:57NATO

00:31:57expansion.

00:31:58Anyway,

00:31:59the decision

00:32:00is made in

00:32:0094.

00:32:01The first

00:32:01tranches in

00:32:021999 and

00:32:04then the

00:32:04opposition

00:32:05disappears.

00:32:06There's no

00:32:06more opposition.

00:32:08Disappears.

00:32:09And as

00:32:10this situation

00:32:11regarding NATO

00:32:12expansion

00:32:13deteriorates over

00:32:14time, especially

00:32:15once the decision

00:32:16is made to

00:32:16bring Ukraine

00:32:17into NATO,

00:32:19you would think

00:32:20that we would

00:32:20begin to do

00:32:21an about-face,

00:32:22that more and

00:32:23more people

00:32:23would begin to

00:32:24appear who

00:32:26make the

00:32:26argument that

00:32:27NATO expansion

00:32:27into Ukraine

00:32:28is a bad

00:32:29idea.

00:32:29Again, in the

00:32:301990s, people

00:32:31were making

00:32:31that argument.

00:32:32But that

00:32:33doesn't happen

00:32:34at all.

00:32:35And I

00:32:35become, in

00:32:37many ways,

00:32:38the principal

00:32:39person who

00:32:40argues that

00:32:41we're responsible

00:32:41for the

00:32:422014 crisis.

00:32:44I wrote a

00:32:44piece in

00:32:45Foreign Affairs

00:32:45after the

00:32:46crisis broke

00:32:47out in

00:32:47February of

00:32:482014.

00:32:50But there

00:32:50are remarkably

00:32:51few people

00:32:52who are

00:32:53questioning

00:32:54whether

00:32:54further

00:32:54pushing down

00:32:57the road

00:32:57to bring

00:32:58Ukraine into

00:32:59NATO makes

00:33:00sense, right?

00:33:01No, they're

00:33:01doubling down.

00:33:02They're doubling

00:33:03down.

00:33:03And then you're

00:33:03getting people

00:33:04at the

00:33:04Atlantic Council

00:33:05saying, you

00:33:05know, well, I

00:33:06guess we have

00:33:06to use nukes

00:33:06now.

00:33:08I mean, you

00:33:08see people

00:33:08get not

00:33:10just refuse

00:33:11to reflect

00:33:11or repent,

00:33:13but become

00:33:14like actively

00:33:15crazy, just

00:33:16crazy.

00:33:17Like, no,

00:33:17tactical nukes,

00:33:18I mean, you

00:33:19know, we're

00:33:19not going to

00:33:19win without

00:33:20them.

00:33:20People are

00:33:20saying that,

00:33:21as you know.

00:33:22What is

00:33:23that?

00:33:24Well, it

00:33:26will be a

00:33:27devastating blow

00:33:28for us to

00:33:29lose the war

00:33:30in Ukraine.

00:33:32And when

00:33:33foreign policy

00:33:34elites get

00:33:35desperate, they

00:33:36do reckless

00:33:38things or they

00:33:39talk in

00:33:39reckless ways.

00:33:40Right.

00:33:41Right.

00:33:41This is why, by

00:33:42the way, the

00:33:43Ukraine war,

00:33:44even once it's

00:33:46settled and

00:33:46becomes a

00:33:47frozen conflict,

00:33:48will be so

00:33:49dangerous, right?

00:33:50Because the

00:33:52fact that it

00:33:53is a defeat

00:33:54for the West

00:33:55and that we

00:33:56have been

00:33:56humiliated and

00:33:58that we lost

00:33:59this major

00:34:00war that we

00:34:02were so

00:34:02deeply committed

00:34:03to, will

00:34:03give people

00:34:04incentives to

00:34:05try to reverse

00:34:06the tide, to

00:34:07rescue the

00:34:08situation.

00:34:10And when

00:34:10people are

00:34:11desperate, they

00:34:12sometimes pursue

00:34:13very risky

00:34:14strategies.

00:34:15So once this

00:34:16war becomes a

00:34:17frozen conflict,

00:34:17we're going to

00:34:18have to worry

00:34:19about it

00:34:20re-escalating.

00:34:21It seems

00:34:23very easy

00:34:24for, you

00:34:27know, a

00:34:27reckless

00:34:27government in

00:34:28Kiev to

00:34:29provoke

00:34:31Moscow, basically.

00:34:33I mean, you've

00:34:34seen it, you

00:34:35know, sending

00:34:35drone swarms

00:34:36onto air

00:34:37bases or

00:34:37in, you

00:34:38know, setting

00:34:38the Kremlin

00:34:39on fire, which

00:34:39they did and

00:34:41got no publicity,

00:34:42but they have

00:34:42done that.

00:34:43It's just, it's

00:34:44this weird

00:34:45asymmetrical

00:34:46arrangement where

00:34:48they, Ukraine

00:34:49actually has quite

00:34:50a bit of power

00:34:50to stoke a

00:34:52global conflict

00:34:53and incentive

00:34:54to do it,

00:34:55don't they?

00:34:56That's exactly

00:34:57right.

00:34:57What they want

00:34:58to do is they

00:34:59want to see the

00:34:59war escalate

00:35:00because they

00:35:01want to bring

00:35:01us in.

00:35:02If the Ukrainians

00:35:04have any hope

00:35:05of rescuing

00:35:06the situation,

00:35:07it's to bring

00:35:08NATO into

00:35:09the fight.

00:35:09Exactly.

00:35:10Actually doing

00:35:11the fighting.

00:35:13We've seen

00:35:13this in other

00:35:14regions.

00:35:14It's a bad

00:35:15idea to

00:35:16allow other

00:35:17countries an

00:35:19incentive to

00:35:19suck in the

00:35:20United States

00:35:20because they

00:35:21will.

00:35:22Yeah, well,

00:35:23I mean, you

00:35:23see this with

00:35:23the Israelis

00:35:24and Iran,

00:35:25right?

00:35:25In 2024,

00:35:27the Israelis

00:35:27tried to

00:35:28bait us

00:35:29into the

00:35:31war, into

00:35:32a war against

00:35:33Iran on two

00:35:34separate occasions.

00:35:35And the

00:35:36Biden

00:35:36administration,

00:35:37much to its

00:35:37credit, did

00:35:38not take

00:35:40the bait.

00:35:40But Donald

00:35:41Trump did

00:35:42take the bait,

00:35:43right?

00:35:43The Israelis

00:35:44have long had

00:35:45a deep-seated

00:35:46interest in getting

00:35:47us involved

00:35:49against Iran

00:35:50because they

00:35:50understand they

00:35:51can't defeat

00:35:52Iran by

00:35:52themselves and

00:35:54they can do

00:35:54it, they

00:35:56think, with

00:35:56us.

00:35:58So this is

00:35:58analogous to

00:35:59the situation

00:36:00with regard to

00:36:01Ukraine.

00:36:01The Ukrainians,

00:36:02as you said,

00:36:03have a deep-seated

00:36:03interest in getting

00:36:04us into the

00:36:05fight.

00:36:06So as long as

00:36:06we're tied to

00:36:07Ukraine, if

00:36:09there's an

00:36:10implicit security

00:36:11guarantee, which

00:36:12there kind of is

00:36:13at this point,

00:36:14I mean, there

00:36:14has been, why

00:36:16don't we have an

00:36:17interest in

00:36:17controlling the

00:36:18government of

00:36:19Ukraine?

00:36:20In other words,

00:36:20why do we have

00:36:21Zelensky running

00:36:22Ukraine, this

00:36:23unelected lunatic

00:36:25running Ukraine,

00:36:26when we have

00:36:27skin in the game?

00:36:28Why do we

00:36:28allow that?

00:36:30Well, we've been

00:36:30content with

00:36:31Zelensky up to

00:36:32now, and the

00:36:34Europeans love

00:36:34Zelensky.

00:36:36Why?

00:36:37Because he's

00:36:38committed to

00:36:39continuing the

00:36:40war, and he

00:36:43is very good at

00:36:44public relations

00:36:44in the West, he

00:36:47has excellent

00:36:47advisors, he's a

00:36:48former actor, he

00:36:49knows how to play

00:36:50the game, so he's

00:36:52good at dealing

00:36:53with the West, and

00:36:55he does what we

00:36:57want.

00:36:57I mean, it's not

00:36:58like he's doing

00:36:59things that we

00:36:59don't want him to

00:37:01do.

00:37:01No, that's right.

00:37:02He is our man, and

00:37:04once he ceases to

00:37:05be our man, we'll

00:37:06go to great lengths

00:37:06to put somebody

00:37:07else in his place.

00:37:08But both Europe

00:37:10and the United

00:37:10States have become

00:37:11poorer and weaker

00:37:12during the course of

00:37:13the Ukraine

00:37:14war, partly as

00:37:16a result of the

00:37:16Ukraine war, so I

00:37:18don't really see how

00:37:18we're winning.

00:37:20How is the U.S.

00:37:20benefiting from

00:37:21this?

00:37:21How is Western

00:37:22Europe benefiting

00:37:23from this?

00:37:23Well, I think that

00:37:24it's Europe, Western

00:37:27Europe in particular,

00:37:28that's been hurt

00:37:29economically by this

00:37:30war, not so much

00:37:31us, and one could

00:37:32argue that we've

00:37:33benefited on the

00:37:35margins at the

00:37:36expense of the

00:37:37Europeans.

00:37:38Well, the U.S.

00:37:38dollar kind of

00:37:39is, I mean, it's

00:37:42obviously not a safe

00:37:43haven anymore, so I

00:37:44mean, it's just a

00:37:45matter of time, I

00:37:46would say.

00:37:46Well, the question

00:37:47is how much of that

00:37:48is due to the

00:37:48Ukraine war versus

00:37:49other American

00:37:50policies?

00:37:51I'm sure that there

00:37:52are a million

00:37:52factors, but kicking

00:37:53Russia out of

00:37:54swift, just stealing

00:37:55the personal property

00:37:56of the so-called

00:37:57oligarchs, behavior,

00:37:59lawless, crazy

00:38:00behavior like that

00:38:01sends a message to

00:38:03the world that,

00:38:03like, don't keep

00:38:05your wealth in

00:38:05dollars because it

00:38:06can become an

00:38:07instrument of war.

00:38:08I mean, that's my

00:38:09view on it anyway.

00:38:10Yeah, there's no

00:38:11question about that.

00:38:12Yeah.

00:38:13There's no question

00:38:14about that.

00:38:15But we, the problem

00:38:18is that we're now so

00:38:19deeply committed that

00:38:22we just can't turn the

00:38:23ship around.

00:38:24Do we have any

00:38:25leverage at all

00:38:27left?

00:38:28I notice the

00:38:28administration is

00:38:29threatening today that

00:38:30in 12 days we're

00:38:31going to do something

00:38:32with sanctions, then

00:38:34secondary sanctions

00:38:35against China and

00:38:36India.

00:38:36they buy Russian

00:38:37oil.

00:38:39I mean, is that

00:38:40any of that

00:38:41meaningful?

00:38:43I don't think

00:38:43secondary, the threat

00:38:45of secondary sanctions

00:38:46is meaningful.

00:38:47I mean, the economic

00:38:48consequences for the

00:38:49world and for the

00:38:50United States would be

00:38:51disastrous if they

00:38:53actually were put into

00:38:54effect and worked.

00:38:55I think the Chinese

00:38:57and Indians would just

00:38:58blow them off at this

00:38:59point.

00:39:00Yeah.

00:39:00So I don't think that

00:39:01they'll work.

00:39:02We have no cards to

00:39:03play.

00:39:04If we had cards to

00:39:05play, Biden would

00:39:06have played those

00:39:07cards.

00:39:07I mean, one

00:39:08fundamental difference

00:39:09between Biden and

00:39:11Trump is that Biden

00:39:12was fully committed

00:39:13to the war and

00:39:14wanted to do

00:39:15everything he could

00:39:16to make sure the

00:39:18United States stayed

00:39:19in the game and

00:39:21continued to support

00:39:23Ukraine no matter

00:39:24what.

00:39:25Trump definitely

00:39:27wanted to end the

00:39:28war.

00:39:28He's been

00:39:29unsuccessful.

00:39:30He really doesn't

00:39:30know what he's

00:39:31doing.

00:39:31He doesn't know

00:39:32how to end the

00:39:33war, but he does

00:39:34want to end it.

00:39:36And the question

00:39:37you really have to

00:39:38ask yourself is what

00:39:39is he going to put

00:39:40into the pipeline,

00:39:41the Biden pipeline,

00:39:42once the weaponry

00:39:43dries up?

00:39:45And I don't think

00:39:47that Trump is going

00:39:48to end up giving

00:39:49the Ukrainians a lot

00:39:50more weaponry.

00:39:52So I think he's

00:39:53going to basically

00:39:54allow the Ukrainians

00:39:56to be defeated on

00:39:57the battlefield.

00:39:58This is going to be

00:39:59a huge problem for

00:40:00Trump because he's

00:40:01going to be blamed

00:40:02for losing Ukraine.

00:40:04The problem that

00:40:05Trump runs into is

00:40:07the same problem

00:40:08that Biden ran

00:40:09into with

00:40:10Afghanistan.

00:40:11Remember, Trump

00:40:12was the one who

00:40:13wisely decided we're

00:40:14getting out of

00:40:15Afghanistan.

00:40:16Yes.

00:40:16He was smart to do

00:40:17that.

00:40:18But it was Biden

00:40:19who actually took

00:40:20us out of

00:40:22Afghanistan.

00:40:23And that was a

00:40:24disaster.

00:40:25And he got all

00:40:27sorts of mud

00:40:28spilled on him

00:40:29for taking us

00:40:31out of

00:40:32Afghanistan.

00:40:34Well, what's

00:40:35going to happen

00:40:35in Ukraine at

00:40:36some point is

00:40:37the Russians are

00:40:38going to win and

00:40:39Trump is going to

00:40:39get blamed for

00:40:40that.

00:40:41And I think one

00:40:41of the reasons

00:40:42that Trump is so

00:40:43hesitant on Ukraine

00:40:45is not simply

00:40:46because he's

00:40:47surrounded by

00:40:48advisors who are

00:40:49super hawks on

00:40:50Ukraine and want

00:40:51to hang on to

00:40:52the bitter end.

00:40:53It's also because

00:40:53Trump understands

00:40:55that when Ukraine

00:40:56loses, it will be

00:40:59seen as having

00:41:00happened on his

00:41:01watch.

00:41:01No question.

00:41:02Yeah, no question.

00:41:03He doesn't want

00:41:04that to happen.

00:41:05This is why Trump

00:41:06was deeply committed

00:41:07to negotiating

00:41:08the settlement.

00:41:09Why couldn't

00:41:10that work?

00:41:12It didn't work

00:41:13because Trump

00:41:14would have to

00:41:15accept Russia's

00:41:17three key demands

00:41:18that I spelled

00:41:19out to you at

00:41:20the start of the

00:41:20show.

00:41:21And those three

00:41:22key demands are

00:41:23unacceptable to

00:41:25almost every

00:41:26person in the

00:41:26American foreign

00:41:27policy establishment

00:41:28and almost every

00:41:30foreign policy

00:41:31elite in Europe.

00:41:33Trump is an

00:41:34outlier on the

00:41:36whole issue of

00:41:37Ukraine.

00:41:37He, J.D.

00:41:38Vance, and a

00:41:39handful of other

00:41:40people.

00:41:40And they're not

00:41:42in a position to

00:41:43bite the bullet

00:41:44and say, we will

00:41:46accept the main

00:41:47Russian demands

00:41:48and go from

00:41:49there.

00:41:50And by the way,

00:41:50even if they do

00:41:51accept the main

00:41:52Russian demands,

00:41:54the fact is

00:41:56that there

00:41:57will be huge

00:41:58resistance from

00:42:00the foreign

00:42:00policy establishments

00:42:02on both sides

00:42:02of the Atlantic.

00:42:04Well, I can't

00:42:04think of a group

00:42:05I'm less interested

00:42:06in listening to

00:42:07than the foreign

00:42:07policy establishment.

00:42:08I mean, again,

00:42:09that just seems

00:42:09so totally

00:42:10discredited.

00:42:11It's like dating

00:42:12tips from

00:42:13Jeffrey Epstein.

00:42:14It's like, who

00:42:14cares what they

00:42:15say?

00:42:16But I guess...

00:42:17Well, they still

00:42:17wield enormous

00:42:18power.

00:42:19Yeah, apparently.

00:42:19This is the

00:42:20problem that

00:42:21Trump faces,

00:42:22right?

00:42:22I mean, Trump

00:42:24had this problem

00:42:24in spades the

00:42:25first time he

00:42:26was elected.

00:42:27Trump comes

00:42:28into the White

00:42:28House and he

00:42:30has to pick

00:42:31advisors.

00:42:32But it's not

00:42:32like he has

00:42:34a large number

00:42:35or even a

00:42:36small number

00:42:37of foreign

00:42:37policy experts

00:42:38who share

00:42:40his foreign

00:42:40policy views,

00:42:42right?

00:42:43Because he has

00:42:43to draw from

00:42:44the establishment.

00:42:45Right.

00:42:45So you want

00:42:46to remember

00:42:46that Trump

00:42:47was very

00:42:48interested in

00:42:49improving

00:42:50relations

00:42:51with

00:42:52Russia

00:42:54and with

00:42:54Putin in

00:42:55particular

00:42:55the first

00:42:56time round.

00:42:57And he

00:42:57failed completely.

00:42:59Where Trump

00:43:00succeeded was

00:43:01on China.

00:43:02Trump

00:43:02abandoned

00:43:03engagement.

00:43:04We talked

00:43:04about engagement

00:43:05being a

00:43:05disastrous policy.

00:43:07Trump

00:43:07abandoned

00:43:08engagement

00:43:09and moved

00:43:10to containment

00:43:11in 2017.

00:43:13He ran

00:43:14as a candidate

00:43:14in 2016

00:43:16explicitly

00:43:16against engagement,

00:43:18got rid of it

00:43:18immediately.

00:43:19I believe

00:43:20that was a

00:43:20smart thing

00:43:21to do

00:43:21and to

00:43:21pursue

00:43:22containment.

00:43:23He also,

00:43:24Trump,

00:43:24wanted to

00:43:25improve

00:43:25relations

00:43:26with Putin,

00:43:27which I

00:43:28think made

00:43:28eminently

00:43:29good sense.

00:43:30He couldn't

00:43:30do that

00:43:30in part

00:43:31because of

00:43:31Russiagate,

00:43:32but also

00:43:33because the

00:43:33foreign policy

00:43:34establishment

00:43:34was so

00:43:35committed

00:43:35to NATO

00:43:36expansion.

00:43:37So he

00:43:37failed on

00:43:38that count.

00:43:39But the

00:43:39problem is

00:43:40he was

00:43:40surrounded

00:43:41by advisors

00:43:42in that

00:43:43first

00:43:44administration

00:43:45who were

00:43:46all very

00:43:47hawkish

00:43:47on Ukraine

00:43:48and very

00:43:50hawkish about

00:43:51American foreign

00:43:51policy in

00:43:52general,

00:43:53very hawkish

00:43:53about the

00:43:54forever wars.

00:43:55So I don't

00:43:57understand since

00:43:58you raised it,

00:43:59what is the

00:43:59connection?

00:44:00The same

00:44:00people who

00:44:00are telling

00:44:01me we

00:44:01need to

00:44:02fight a

00:44:02regime

00:44:03change war

00:44:03against

00:44:04Iran

00:44:04are the

00:44:05same

00:44:06ones who

00:44:06are hysterical

00:44:08about supporting

00:44:09Ukraine

00:44:10and continuing

00:44:11our war

00:44:12against Russia.

00:44:13The Mark

00:44:13Levins and

00:44:14then the

00:44:15smarter

00:44:15people,

00:44:17but same

00:44:18orientation.

00:44:19What do they

00:44:20have in

00:44:21common?

00:44:21I don't

00:44:21really

00:44:21understand.

00:44:23Well,

00:44:23you have a

00:44:23foreign policy

00:44:24establishment.

00:44:25Whether you're

00:44:25talking about

00:44:26the Republican

00:44:26side or

00:44:27you're talking

00:44:28about the

00:44:28Democratic

00:44:29side that

00:44:30is deeply

00:44:31committed to

00:44:33pursuing hawkish

00:44:34foreign policy.

00:44:35Just for its

00:44:36own sake?

00:44:37No,

00:44:37no.

00:44:37They believe

00:44:38that that's

00:44:39what's good

00:44:39for the

00:44:40United States.

00:44:41They believe

00:44:41we should

00:44:42spend

00:44:42exceedingly

00:44:44large amounts

00:44:45of money

00:44:46on defense,

00:44:47that we should

00:44:47be willing

00:44:48to use

00:44:49military force

00:44:50in a rather

00:44:51liberal fashion.

00:44:53They believe

00:44:54that military

00:44:54force can

00:44:55solve all

00:44:56sorts of

00:44:57problems.

00:44:58They believe

00:44:59that the

00:45:00United States,

00:45:01and this was

00:45:01certainly true

00:45:02during the

00:45:02unipolar moment,

00:45:03can use that

00:45:04military force

00:45:05to spread

00:45:05liberal democracy

00:45:06around the

00:45:07world.

00:45:08We can

00:45:08spread democracy

00:45:09at the end

00:45:10of a rifle

00:45:10barrel.

00:45:11This is what

00:45:12the Bush

00:45:12doctrine was

00:45:13all about

00:45:14in the

00:45:14Middle East.

00:45:15Iraq was

00:45:15just the

00:45:16first stop

00:45:17on the

00:45:17train line.

00:45:18We were

00:45:18going to do

00:45:19Iran,

00:45:19Syria,

00:45:20and eventually

00:45:21everybody

00:45:21would just

00:45:22throw up

00:45:22their hands.

00:45:23We were

00:45:23going to

00:45:23democratize

00:45:24the entire

00:45:24Middle East

00:45:25and we

00:45:25were going

00:45:26to use

00:45:26military force

00:45:27to do

00:45:27that.

00:45:28So we

00:45:29are,

00:45:29in a very

00:45:30important way,

00:45:31addicted to

00:45:32war.

00:45:33Now,

00:45:33it's important

00:45:34to emphasize

00:45:34that a lot

00:45:35of this has

00:45:35to do with

00:45:36Israel,

00:45:36right?

00:45:37Because Israel's

00:45:38supporters have

00:45:39a deep-seated

00:45:39interest in

00:45:40making sure

00:45:41that the

00:45:42United States

00:45:42has a

00:45:43remarkably

00:45:43powerful

00:45:44military

00:45:44and is

00:45:45willing to

00:45:46use that

00:45:47military

00:45:48in a rather

00:45:49liberal fashion

00:45:50because they

00:45:52believe that

00:45:53if Israel

00:45:54ever gets

00:45:54into trouble

00:45:55and it

00:45:56needs help

00:45:57from the

00:45:57United States,

00:45:58the ideal

00:45:59situation is

00:46:00to have a

00:46:01U.S.

00:46:01military that's

00:46:02like a

00:46:02cocked gun.

00:46:04And if you

00:46:04think about

00:46:04the recent

00:46:05war between

00:46:06Israel and

00:46:08Iran,

00:46:08it really

00:46:09wasn't just

00:46:09between Israel

00:46:10and Iran.

00:46:11It was

00:46:12Israel and

00:46:13the United

00:46:13States

00:46:14against

00:46:15Iran,

00:46:16right?

00:46:17Clearly.

00:46:17Clearly,

00:46:18right?

00:46:19And the

00:46:19United States

00:46:20had a

00:46:20huge number

00:46:21of military

00:46:22assets in

00:46:23the Middle

00:46:23East,

00:46:25right,

00:46:25that were

00:46:25there in

00:46:26large part

00:46:27to help

00:46:28the Israelis

00:46:28in their

00:46:29war against

00:46:31Iran.

00:46:32Well,

00:46:33if you think

00:46:34about it,

00:46:35it makes

00:46:35perfectly sense

00:46:36if you're a

00:46:37supporter of

00:46:38Israel to

00:46:39want to make

00:46:39sure that

00:46:40the United

00:46:40States has

00:46:42a large

00:46:43military,

00:46:44military,

00:46:44and that

00:46:45it is

00:46:46willing to

00:46:46use that

00:46:47military,

00:46:48and that

00:46:49if need

00:46:49be,

00:46:49it can

00:46:50help

00:46:50Israel

00:46:50if it

00:46:51gets into

00:46:52trouble.

00:46:53I didn't

00:46:53hear any

00:46:53reference to

00:46:54American

00:46:54interests in

00:46:55that description.

00:46:57Well,

00:46:58when it

00:46:58comes to

00:46:59Israel,

00:47:00right,

00:47:00and what

00:47:01Israel

00:47:01needs,

00:47:02right,

00:47:03that has

00:47:03little to

00:47:04do with

00:47:04American

00:47:05interests,

00:47:06right?

00:47:06The truth

00:47:07is,

00:47:08any two

00:47:09countries in

00:47:10the world

00:47:11are going

00:47:12to have

00:47:13similar

00:47:14interests

00:47:15plus

00:47:15different

00:47:16interests,

00:47:17right?

00:47:17So,

00:47:17there's no

00:47:18question that

00:47:18Israel and

00:47:20the United

00:47:20States

00:47:20sometimes have

00:47:21similar interests

00:47:22and sometimes

00:47:23have different

00:47:23interests.

00:47:24Let me give

00:47:24you an

00:47:24example of

00:47:25this.

00:47:25The United

00:47:26States has

00:47:26a vested

00:47:27interest in

00:47:27making sure

00:47:28Iran does

00:47:29not have

00:47:29nuclear weapons.

00:47:30We're against

00:47:31proliferation.

00:47:32It's in the

00:47:32American national

00:47:33interest.

00:47:34It's obviously

00:47:35in Israel's

00:47:36national interest

00:47:37for Iran

00:47:37not to have

00:47:38nuclear weapons,

00:47:39right?

00:47:40So,

00:47:41two states

00:47:42can have

00:47:42similar interests.

00:47:44In the case

00:47:44of Israel

00:47:45and the

00:47:45United States,

00:47:47they also

00:47:47happen to

00:47:48have different

00:47:48interests.

00:47:50And what

00:47:51we have

00:47:52in the United

00:47:52States is a

00:47:53situation where

00:47:54we have this

00:47:55thing called

00:47:55the Israel

00:47:56Lobby,

00:47:56which I,

00:47:57of course,

00:47:57have written

00:47:57about with

00:47:58Steve Wald,

00:47:59which goes

00:48:00to great

00:48:00lengths to

00:48:01push the

00:48:02United States

00:48:03to support

00:48:04Israel

00:48:05unconditionally.

00:48:06In other

00:48:07words,

00:48:07no matter

00:48:07what Israel

00:48:08does,

00:48:09we are

00:48:10supposed to

00:48:11support Israel.

00:48:12And the

00:48:13lobby is so

00:48:14effective,

00:48:15it is so

00:48:15powerful,

00:48:16it is so

00:48:16effective,

00:48:17that we

00:48:18basically end

00:48:19up supporting

00:48:19Israel

00:48:20unconditionally.

00:48:21What that

00:48:22means,

00:48:22Tucker,

00:48:23is in those

00:48:23cases where

00:48:24Israel's

00:48:25interests are

00:48:26not the

00:48:26same as

00:48:27America's

00:48:28interests,

00:48:29we support

00:48:30Israel.

00:48:31We support

00:48:32Israel's

00:48:32interests,

00:48:33not America's

00:48:34interests,

00:48:35because...

00:48:35Over and

00:48:36against America's

00:48:37interests.

00:48:37Of course.

00:48:38Because the

00:48:39interests clash

00:48:40in those

00:48:40specific

00:48:41instances.

00:48:41Right.

00:48:42Which is,

00:48:43as you

00:48:43noted at

00:48:44the outset,

00:48:45just the

00:48:45nature of

00:48:46sovereign

00:48:47countries doing

00:48:47business with

00:48:48each other.

00:48:48You're going

00:48:48to agree on

00:48:49some things

00:48:49and disagree

00:48:49on others.

00:48:50Absolutely.

00:48:51But can

00:48:52you think

00:48:52of any

00:48:53moment in

00:48:55the last,

00:48:55say,

00:48:5540 years

00:48:56where there

00:48:57was that

00:48:57clash between

00:48:59non-converging

00:49:01interests where

00:49:02the United

00:49:02States chose

00:49:03its own

00:49:03interests over

00:49:04Israel's

00:49:04interests?

00:49:04Right.

00:49:07No.

00:49:09No, I

00:49:10can't think

00:49:11of anything

00:49:12that fits

00:49:13that description.

00:49:14I mean,

00:49:14one could

00:49:15argue that

00:49:16Israel wanted

00:49:17us to

00:49:17fight against

00:49:18Iran in

00:49:192024,

00:49:20that they

00:49:21tried to

00:49:21bait us

00:49:22into attacking

00:49:23Iran in

00:49:25April and

00:49:26then in

00:49:27July.

00:49:28And as I

00:49:29said before,

00:49:29the Biden

00:49:30administration

00:49:30did not

00:49:31take the

00:49:32bait.

00:49:32can you

00:49:33think

00:49:33conversely

00:49:34of

00:49:35instances

00:49:35where

00:49:36the

00:49:37U.S.

00:49:37government

00:49:38chose

00:49:38the

00:49:39interests

00:49:39of

00:49:39a

00:49:39foreign

00:49:39power

00:49:40over

00:49:40and

00:49:40against

00:49:41its

00:49:41own

00:49:41interests

00:49:41and

00:49:42its

00:49:42people's

00:49:42interests?

00:49:44Besides

00:49:44the

00:49:44Israeli

00:49:45case?

00:49:45No,

00:49:46no,

00:49:46in the

00:49:47case of

00:49:47Israel,

00:49:49you know,

00:49:49we're

00:49:49allied with

00:49:50Israel

00:49:50informally

00:49:52and,

00:49:52you know,

00:49:53they want

00:49:54us to do

00:49:54something

00:49:55that is

00:49:56hurtful to

00:49:57us,

00:49:57does not

00:49:57help our

00:49:58interests at

00:49:58all,

00:49:58but we do

00:49:59it anyway.

00:50:00Can you

00:50:00think of

00:50:00examples of

00:50:01that?

00:50:02Two-state

00:50:02solution is

00:50:03the best

00:50:03example.

00:50:04Every

00:50:05American

00:50:05president

00:50:06since

00:50:07at least

00:50:08Jimmy

00:50:08Carter

00:50:09has

00:50:09pushed

00:50:10forcefully

00:50:11for

00:50:11creating

00:50:12a

00:50:12Palestinian

00:50:12state.

00:50:13We

00:50:14have

00:50:14long

00:50:14believed

00:50:15that

00:50:15the

00:50:16best

00:50:16solution

00:50:16to

00:50:17the

00:50:17Palestinian

00:50:18problem,

00:50:18which

00:50:19is the

00:50:19taproot

00:50:20of so

00:50:20many

00:50:20other

00:50:21problems

00:50:21that

00:50:22we

00:50:22face

00:50:22in

00:50:22the

00:50:22Middle

00:50:23East

00:50:23is

00:50:24to

00:50:24create

00:50:24two

00:50:25states.

00:50:26So

00:50:26every

00:50:27president

00:50:27has

00:50:28pushed

00:50:28hard,

00:50:28except

00:50:29for

00:50:29maybe

00:50:29Donald

00:50:29Trump

00:50:30for

00:50:30two-state

00:50:31solution

00:50:32in the

00:50:32Middle

00:50:32East.

00:50:33The

00:50:34Israelis

00:50:34have

00:50:35rebuffed

00:50:35us

00:50:36at

00:50:37every

00:50:37turn,

00:50:38and

00:50:38the

00:50:39end

00:50:39result

00:50:39is we

00:50:40now have

00:50:41a

00:50:41greater

00:50:41Israel,

00:50:42and

00:50:42there's

00:50:42no

00:50:42possibility

00:50:43of a

00:50:43two-state

00:50:43solution.

00:50:44How does

00:50:44it hurt

00:50:45the United

00:50:45States

00:50:45not having

00:50:46a

00:50:46Palestinian

00:50:47state?

00:50:47Why is

00:50:47it in

00:50:48our interest?

00:50:49Why is

00:50:49every

00:50:49president

00:50:49pushed

00:50:50for that?

00:50:50Because

00:50:50the

00:50:51United

00:50:51States

00:50:51has

00:50:51a

00:50:52vested

00:50:52interest

00:50:52in

00:50:53having

00:50:53peace

00:50:53in

00:50:54the

00:50:55Middle

00:50:55East.

00:50:56It's

00:50:57not

00:50:57in

00:50:57our

00:50:58interest

00:50:58to

00:50:58have

00:50:58wars

00:50:59in

00:50:59that

00:50:59region.

00:51:01First

00:51:01of all,

00:51:02it forces

00:51:02us to

00:51:03commit

00:51:03military

00:51:03forces,

00:51:04it forces

00:51:04us to

00:51:05fight

00:51:05wars,

00:51:06and that's

00:51:07not in

00:51:08our

00:51:08interest.

00:51:09And we

00:51:10have long

00:51:11felt from a

00:51:12strategic point

00:51:13of view that

00:51:13what you want

00:51:14to do is

00:51:14make sure

00:51:15you have

00:51:17peace in

00:51:18that region.

00:51:19You want to

00:51:19remember right

00:51:20before October

00:51:207th,

00:51:21Jake Sullivan,

00:51:22who was then the

00:51:22national security

00:51:23advisor,

00:51:24was crowing

00:51:25about the

00:51:25fact that

00:51:26we had

00:51:27not seen

00:51:27the Middle

00:51:29East so

00:51:30peaceful in

00:51:30a long

00:51:31period of

00:51:32time.

00:51:32And he

00:51:33understood

00:51:33full well

00:51:33that this

00:51:34is in

00:51:34our

00:51:34interest.

00:51:35Well,

00:51:35if you

00:51:36compare

00:51:36the

00:51:36world

00:51:37on

00:51:39October

00:51:396th,

00:51:402023,

00:51:43with the

00:51:43world that

00:51:45exists in

00:51:45the Middle

00:51:45East today,

00:51:46we are

00:51:47much worse

00:51:47off today.

00:51:49This is

00:51:50not in

00:51:50our

00:51:51interest.

00:51:52And this

00:51:53is in

00:51:53large part

00:51:53because of

00:51:54Israel.

00:51:55And this

00:51:56is just

00:51:56a strategic

00:51:57dimension.

00:51:57We're not

00:51:58even talking

00:51:58about the

00:51:59moral dimension.

00:52:00I mean,

00:52:00the Israelis

00:52:00are executing

00:52:02a genocide

00:52:03in Gaza,

00:52:04and we are

00:52:05complicitous in

00:52:06that genocide.

00:52:07When you say

00:52:07it's a genocide,

00:52:08what do you

00:52:08mean?

00:52:09Well,

00:52:10if you look

00:52:10at what the

00:52:11definition of

00:52:12a genocide

00:52:12is,

00:52:14right,

00:52:14it's where

00:52:15one country

00:52:15tries to

00:52:17destroy

00:52:18either all

00:52:20or a

00:52:20substantial

00:52:21portion

00:52:21of

00:52:22another

00:52:22group,

00:52:24another

00:52:24ethnic

00:52:25or

00:52:26religious

00:52:26or

00:52:27national

00:52:28group

00:52:28for the

00:52:30purposes of

00:52:31basically

00:52:31destroying that

00:52:33group identity,

00:52:34that's what

00:52:35you're talking

00:52:35about here.

00:52:36I think

00:52:38that's the

00:52:40definition

00:52:41of genocide.

00:52:43It's laid

00:52:44out in the

00:52:451948

00:52:45convention.

00:52:47I think

00:52:48that what

00:52:48the Israelis

00:52:49are doing

00:52:49fits that

00:52:50description,

00:52:51and lots

00:52:52of people

00:52:52and organizations

00:52:53agree with

00:52:54me on that

00:52:55point.

00:52:56It's very

00:52:56important to

00:52:57understand here

00:52:57that just

00:52:58killing large

00:52:59numbers of

00:53:00Palestinians

00:53:01is not

00:53:02necessarily

00:53:03genocide.

00:53:03I mean,

00:53:05the United

00:53:05States,

00:53:06when it

00:53:06firebombed

00:53:08Japan in

00:53:09World War

00:53:09II,

00:53:10killed many

00:53:11more Japanese

00:53:12than the

00:53:12Israelis have

00:53:13killed

00:53:13Palestinians

00:53:14in Gaza.

00:53:15There's no

00:53:15question about

00:53:15that.

00:53:16But no one

00:53:17would ever

00:53:17accuse the

00:53:18United States

00:53:18of executing

00:53:19a genocide

00:53:20against Japan.

00:53:22The United

00:53:23States was

00:53:24killing large

00:53:25numbers of

00:53:26Japanese

00:53:26civilians,

00:53:27and by the

00:53:27way,

00:53:27we killed

00:53:28large numbers

00:53:28of German

00:53:29civilians as

00:53:30well.

00:53:30Millions.

00:53:31for purposes

00:53:33of ending

00:53:34the war.

00:53:35We wanted

00:53:35to end

00:53:35the war.

00:53:36And if you

00:53:36look at how

00:53:37we treated

00:53:37the Japanese

00:53:38and how we

00:53:39treated the

00:53:39Germans once

00:53:40the war

00:53:41ended,

00:53:42it was very

00:53:42clear that we

00:53:43were not

00:53:43bent on

00:53:44genocide.

00:53:45This is

00:53:45not to

00:53:45excuse what

00:53:47we did

00:53:48against Japan

00:53:49and Germany.

00:53:50And I do

00:53:50believe we

00:53:51murdered,

00:53:51I would use

00:53:52the word

00:53:52murdered,

00:53:53large numbers

00:53:54or millions

00:53:55of Japanese

00:53:56and Germans

00:53:57together.

00:53:57But in

00:53:58the case of

00:53:59what's going

00:54:00on in

00:54:00Gaza,

00:54:01what's

00:54:02happening

00:54:03here is

00:54:03that the

00:54:04Israelis are

00:54:05systematically

00:54:06trying to

00:54:07destroy the

00:54:08Palestinians as

00:54:09a national

00:54:10group.

00:54:11They're

00:54:12targeting them

00:54:13as

00:54:13Palestinians

00:54:14and they're

00:54:14trying to

00:54:16destroy

00:54:17Palestinian

00:54:18national

00:54:19identity in

00:54:20addition to

00:54:21murdering

00:54:22huge numbers

00:54:23of Palestinians.

00:54:24I mean,

00:54:25it's not just

00:54:26a rage

00:54:26reflex.

00:54:27This is a

00:54:27strategy.

00:54:28Of course,

00:54:29two and a

00:54:29half years

00:54:29later,

00:54:30almost three

00:54:30years later.

00:54:31What is

00:54:32the strategy?

00:54:33What's the

00:54:33goal of

00:54:35this?

00:54:36My view

00:54:36on this

00:54:37is that

00:54:39the Israelis

00:54:40have long

00:54:41been interested

00:54:42in expelling

00:54:44the Palestinian

00:54:45population

00:54:46from greater

00:54:47Israel.

00:54:48If you look

00:54:48at greater

00:54:49Israel,

00:54:49this includes

00:54:50the Israel

00:54:51that was

00:54:52created in

00:54:531948

00:54:53and the

00:54:55occupied,

00:54:55plus the

00:54:56occupied

00:54:56territories.

00:54:57this is

00:54:58the West

00:54:59Bank.

00:54:59The post

00:54:5967.

00:55:00Post 67.

00:55:01West Bank

00:55:02and Gaza.

00:55:02So West

00:55:03Bank,

00:55:04Gaza,

00:55:05and what we

00:55:05call Green

00:55:06Line Israel.

00:55:07That's

00:55:07greater Israel.

00:55:08Inside

00:55:08greater Israel,

00:55:10there are

00:55:11about 7.3

00:55:12million Jews

00:55:13and about

00:55:147.3

00:55:15million

00:55:15Palestinians.

00:55:18And from

00:55:19the get-go,

00:55:19going back

00:55:20to the

00:55:21early days

00:55:22of Zionism

00:55:23and the

00:55:25views of

00:55:25people like

00:55:26David Ben-Gurion,

00:55:27they believed

00:55:28that you

00:55:29needed a

00:55:31Jewish state

00:55:31that was

00:55:32about 80%

00:55:33Jewish and

00:55:3420%

00:55:35Palestinian.

00:55:36In an

00:55:37ideal world,

00:55:37you would get

00:55:38rid of all

00:55:38the Palestinians.

00:55:40But the

00:55:41least bad

00:55:41alternative is

00:55:4280-20.

00:55:43But you

00:55:44actually have a

00:55:44situation in

00:55:45greater Israel

00:55:45where you have

00:55:4650-50.

00:55:47So October

00:55:487th happens,

00:55:49and what the

00:55:49Israelis see is

00:55:51an excellent

00:55:51opportunity for

00:55:52ethnic cleansing.

00:55:54And they

00:55:54make this

00:55:54clear.

00:55:55In other

00:55:55words,

00:55:56it's an

00:55:56excellent

00:55:57opportunity to

00:55:58go to war

00:55:58in Gaza

00:55:59and drive

00:56:00the Palestinians

00:56:01out of

00:56:02Gaza and

00:56:04solve that

00:56:04demographic

00:56:05problem that

00:56:05they face.

00:56:06That's such

00:56:07a dark

00:56:08thing, and

00:56:10therefore,

00:56:10that's a

00:56:10very strong

00:56:11allegation.

00:56:12On what

00:56:12basis are

00:56:12you making

00:56:13it?

00:56:13Oh,

00:56:14there's just

00:56:14a huge

00:56:15amount of

00:56:16data that

00:56:18supports this

00:56:19in the

00:56:20Israeli

00:56:20press.

00:56:21They have

00:56:21been perfectly

00:56:24willing to

00:56:25make this

00:56:25argument loudly

00:56:26and clearly.

00:56:27The issue

00:56:27of genocide,

00:56:28which I'll

00:56:28get to in a

00:56:29second,

00:56:29is a

00:56:29different issue.

00:56:31I'm

00:56:31separating

00:56:31ethnic

00:56:32cleansing

00:56:32from

00:56:33genocide.

00:56:34So what

00:56:35happens after

00:56:35October 7th

00:56:36is that the

00:56:37Israelis see

00:56:38an opportunity

00:56:38to drive the

00:56:39Palestinians

00:56:40out of

00:56:41Gaza.

00:56:42And you

00:56:42want to

00:56:43remember that

00:56:43you had

00:56:44massive

00:56:44ethnic

00:56:45cleansing in

00:56:461948 when

00:56:47the state

00:56:47is created.

00:56:48virtually all

00:56:49of those

00:56:50people in

00:56:51Gaza are

00:56:51descendants of

00:56:53the ethnic

00:56:54cleansing of

00:56:551948.

00:56:55They were

00:56:55kicked out of

00:56:56another place

00:56:57and sent to

00:56:58Gaza.

00:56:59And by the

00:57:00way, there

00:57:00was another

00:57:01massive ethnic

00:57:03cleansing after

00:57:04the 1967

00:57:04war in the

00:57:05West Bank.

00:57:06So this is

00:57:07the third

00:57:08attempt at a

00:57:09massive ethnic

00:57:10cleansing in

00:57:10Gaza.

00:57:11So this is

00:57:12hardly surprising

00:57:12at all.

00:57:13And in fact,

00:57:13if you go

00:57:14back and read

00:57:14the literature

00:57:15on the

00:57:16creation of

00:57:17Israel,

00:57:18this is all

00:57:19thoroughly

00:57:19documented,

00:57:20ethnic cleansing

00:57:21was a subject

00:57:22that the

00:57:22Zionists talked

00:57:24about from

00:57:24the get-go.

00:57:25And they

00:57:25talked about

00:57:26extensively

00:57:26because there

00:57:27was no way

00:57:28they could

00:57:28create a

00:57:29greater Israel

00:57:30without doing

00:57:31massive ethnic

00:57:32cleansing.

00:57:32You want to

00:57:33remember that

00:57:34when the

00:57:34Zionists come

00:57:35to Israel

00:57:36starting in

00:57:37the late

00:57:371800s,

00:57:38early 1900s,

00:57:40there were

00:57:40remarkably few

00:57:41Jews in

00:57:42Palestine.

00:57:43And those

00:57:44Jews are not

00:57:45Zionists.

00:57:46The Zionists

00:57:46are the Jews

00:57:47who come

00:57:47from Europe.

00:57:48And they

00:57:49understand that

00:57:49they're moving

00:57:50into a territory

00:57:51that's filled

00:57:52with Palestinian

00:57:53villages and

00:57:54Palestinian people.

00:57:55And the

00:57:55question you

00:57:56have to ask

00:57:56yourself is,

00:57:57how can you

00:57:58create a

00:57:59Jewish state

00:58:00on a piece

00:58:01of territory

00:58:02that's filled

00:58:03with Palestinians

00:58:04without doing

00:58:05ethnic cleansing,

00:58:06massive ethnic

00:58:07cleansing?

00:58:08And the answer

00:58:08is you can't.

00:58:09So they're

00:58:10talking about

00:58:11and thinking

00:58:11about ethnic

00:58:12cleansing from

00:58:13the get-go.

00:58:14So the

00:58:14idea that

00:58:15they wouldn't

00:58:17think of

00:58:18what the

00:58:20situation looks

00:58:21like after

00:58:21October 7th

00:58:22is an

00:58:23opportunity to

00:58:24do ethnic

00:58:24cleansing,

00:58:26you know,

00:58:26it belies...

00:58:27So it wasn't

00:58:27really a land

00:58:28without people

00:58:28for a people

00:58:29without land?

00:58:29Absolutely

00:58:30not.

00:58:31Absolutely

00:58:32not.

00:58:33And David

00:58:34Ben-Gurion,

00:58:35Vladimir Jabotinsky,

00:58:36all these

00:58:37key Zionist

00:58:39leaders understood

00:58:40that full well.

00:58:41And they

00:58:42understood that

00:58:43they were going

00:58:44to have to do

00:58:45horrible things

00:58:46to the

00:58:46Palestinians.

00:58:47They understood

00:58:48that.

00:58:49And they were

00:58:50explicit in saying

00:58:51that they did

00:58:53not blame the

00:58:54Palestinians one

00:58:55second for

00:58:56resisting what

00:58:57the Jews from

00:58:59Europe were

00:58:59going to do

00:59:00to them.

00:59:01They fully

00:59:01understood that

00:59:02they were

00:59:03stealing their

00:59:04land.

00:59:04And they fully

00:59:05understood that

00:59:06it made perfect

00:59:07sense for the

00:59:08Palestinians to

00:59:09resist, which of

00:59:10course they did.

00:59:12But anyway, just

00:59:14to fast forward

00:59:15to October 7th.

00:59:16What happens

00:59:17after October 7th

00:59:18is that the

00:59:20Israelis see an

00:59:21excellent opportunity

00:59:22to ethnically

00:59:23cleansed

00:59:23Palestinians in

00:59:25Gaza.

00:59:25You have about

00:59:262.3 million

00:59:27Palestinians in

00:59:28Gaza.

00:59:29Just to be

00:59:30clear, you have

00:59:30about 2.3

00:59:31million Palestinians

00:59:32in Gaza, about

00:59:343.2 million

00:59:35in West Bank,

00:59:39and about 1.8

00:59:40in Greenline

00:59:42Israel.

00:59:43Okay?

00:59:43So this is an

00:59:44opportunity to get

00:59:45rid of those

00:59:45Palestinians.

00:59:47And the way to

00:59:47do it is to

00:59:49turn the IDF,

00:59:50the Israeli

00:59:50military loose,

00:59:52and let them

00:59:53tear the place

00:59:54apart.

00:59:54And the idea

00:59:55is that that

00:59:56will just drive

00:59:57the Palestinians

00:59:58out.

00:59:59But the

01:00:00problem that

01:00:01the Israelis

01:00:02face is the

01:00:03Palestinians don't

01:00:05leave.

01:00:06Both the

01:00:06Egyptians and

01:00:07the Jordanians,

01:00:09which are the

01:00:09two countries

01:00:10that the Israelis

01:00:11would like to

01:00:11drive the

01:00:12Palestinians into,

01:00:14make it, you

01:00:15know, unequivocally

01:00:16clear that that's

01:00:17not going to

01:00:17happen.

01:00:18Jordan is just

01:00:18a giant refugee

01:00:19camp already.

01:00:20It already is.

01:00:21From all these

01:00:21other wars that

01:00:22have been inspired

01:00:23for the same

01:00:24reason.

01:00:24So, I mean,

01:00:26I think Jordan

01:00:27is, what

01:00:27percentage

01:00:28Jordanian is

01:00:28Jordan?

01:00:29I mean, tiny

01:00:30percentage Jordanian.

01:00:31Well, it's

01:00:31definitely less

01:00:32than 50%.

01:00:33Way less.

01:00:34Way less.

01:00:34Yeah.

01:00:35Yeah.

01:00:36And Egypt has

01:00:37100 million

01:00:37people already.

01:00:38So.

01:00:39But here's what

01:00:40happens, Tucker.

01:00:42And I think it

01:00:43makes sense if you

01:00:44listen to the

01:00:45logic.

01:00:46They start with

01:00:47the goal of

01:00:48ethnic cleansing.

01:00:48I don't believe

01:00:50they want to

01:00:51murder all of

01:00:52the Palestinians

01:00:53in Gaza.

01:00:55They just simply

01:00:55want to drive

01:00:56them out.

01:00:58But the problem

01:00:58is they don't

01:00:59leave.

01:01:00And then the

01:01:01question is,

01:01:01what do you

01:01:02do?

01:01:02And what they

01:01:03do is they

01:01:04continue to

01:01:05up the

01:01:06attacks,

01:01:07increase the

01:01:08attacks,

01:01:09kill more and

01:01:10more people in

01:01:12the hope that

01:01:13they will drive

01:01:13them out.

01:01:14And I'm

01:01:15sorry, I

01:01:16should have

01:01:16asked this.

01:01:16Why do they

01:01:17want Gaza in

01:01:17the first

01:01:18place?

01:01:18It seems a lot

01:01:19of trouble

01:01:19killing all

01:01:20these people

01:01:20committing,

01:01:22you know,

01:01:23atrocities on

01:01:24camera.

01:01:25I mean, the

01:01:25press are

01:01:25barred, but

01:01:26we're still

01:01:26getting a lot

01:01:27of video out

01:01:28of the area.

01:01:29That's a big

01:01:29hit.

01:01:30Why would you

01:01:31be willing to

01:01:31go through all

01:01:32of that to

01:01:34get Gaza?

01:01:34Why do they

01:01:34want it?

01:01:36Well, the

01:01:39Zionists from

01:01:39the beginning

01:01:40have wanted a

01:01:42greater Israel.

01:01:43Israel, and

01:01:45David Ben-Gurion

01:01:46wrote a piece

01:01:47in 1918, and

01:01:49David Ben-Gurion,

01:01:50of course, is the

01:01:51founding father of

01:01:52Israel, wrote a

01:01:53piece in 1918.

01:01:54I don't think it's

01:01:54ever been published

01:01:55in English, it's

01:01:56just in Yiddish,

01:01:57where he describes

01:01:58what his goals are

01:02:00for a greater

01:02:00Israel, right?

01:02:02And it obviously

01:02:03includes Green

01:02:04Line, Israel,

01:02:05Gaza, the

01:02:07West Bank, it

01:02:07includes parts of

01:02:09the East Bank, it

01:02:10includes parts of

01:02:11southern Syria, it

01:02:13includes parts of

01:02:14southern Lebanon, and

01:02:16it includes the

01:02:17Sinai Peninsula.

01:02:19Just think about

01:02:19that.

01:02:20That was Ben-Gurion's

01:02:21vision.

01:02:22And this was a

01:02:24vision that was

01:02:24shared by almost

01:02:26all the early

01:02:28Zionist leaders.

01:02:29And there are

01:02:30still many people

01:02:31in Israel who are

01:02:33in favor of a

01:02:34greater Israel.

01:02:35They don't want a

01:02:36tiny Israel.

01:02:37The Israel that was

01:02:38created in 1948 is a

01:02:40tiny state.

01:02:41Yes.

01:02:42Even with Gaza and

01:02:44the West Bank, it's

01:02:45quite small.

01:02:46It's a postage

01:02:47stamp-like state,

01:02:48right?

01:02:49They want more

01:02:49territory, and they

01:02:51believe they have a

01:02:52historical right to

01:02:53that territory.

01:02:55Israel has never

01:02:56said, these are our

01:02:57final borders.

01:02:59What are Israel's

01:03:00final borders?

01:03:01They've never been

01:03:02articulated.

01:03:03And the reason is

01:03:04the Israelis don't

01:03:05want to say out

01:03:06loud.

01:03:06The early Zionists

01:03:07did not say out

01:03:09loud what their

01:03:10intentions were.

01:03:11David Ben-Gurion

01:03:13didn't get up on a

01:03:13soapbox and say,

01:03:15we are going to

01:03:16create a greater

01:03:17Israel, and it's

01:03:18going to include

01:03:19southern Lebanon,

01:03:20southern Syria, the

01:03:22occupied territories,

01:03:23Green Line Israel,

01:03:25the Sinai, and so

01:03:26forth and so on.

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