00:00Well, yeah, three, three batters today that you'd like to go yard.
00:04Let's start off with Jose Ramirez on the Guardians going up against Jose Arena up at plus 390.
00:10Jose Arena allowing a nearly 300 ISO versus lefties this season.
00:15J-Ram hit a home run yesterday, and if you bet on J-Ram often, his home runs come in bunches.
00:20He'll hit like three and four games, three and five games, then go five, six games without a home run,
00:24and then we get back-to-back games with a home run.
00:27That's a little bit of a storyline, but I like J-Ram at plus 390.
00:29Next up, Luis Robert, plus 470 going up against Jack Kohanowicz.
00:33You know, we're talking about this game, maybe not having a whole lot of runs overall,
00:36but I do like Luis Robert and what he's doing, and Jack Kohanowicz is not a good pitcher.
00:39And then a super deep shot, Matt Shaw at plus 1060 going up against Brandon Young.
00:46If you look on Baseball Savant at the rolling slugging leaderboards of the last 50 plate appearances,
00:53Matt Shaw has the second highest increase in slugging percentage.
00:57It was 163.
00:59Now over his last 50 plate appearances, it's up at 633 slugging percentage.
01:04It's at Wrigley.
01:05Brandon Young is not good.
01:071060 for a home run on Matt Shaw.
01:09I love that, too, because I like where we're going in Wrigley.
01:11We'll get to that in just a moment.
01:12My three dinger prop options today.
01:14Number one is Kyle Schwarber just going up against tonight.
01:16Look, it's a hot ballpark tonight in Philadelphia.
01:19Charlie Morton's on the mound.
01:20Left-handed ISOs past 30 days, 206.
01:22Take a look at Kyle Schwarber's ISO, a 549.
01:26One swing of the bat will get you done tonight in Philadelphia.
01:29But then also, let's focus on Wrigley here, which apparently a lot of the show is going
01:32to be in.
01:33Pete Crow Armstrong.
01:34How about his last 30 at-bats against Brandon Young's right-handed pitching, right?
01:37Not necessarily against him himself, but just the right is him.
01:40383 ISO, 469 weighted on base percentage.
01:43Get out of town.
01:44And also, let's stay in the environment, but just switch locker rooms here.
01:47I'll go to the other side.
01:48How about Gunnar Henderson here?
01:49You take a look at him, a 267 ISO going up against right-handed pitching.
01:53Kyle Ray is bad.
01:54Look at the price points.
01:55Schwarber plus 210.
01:56Ridiculous.
01:57They don't want to take it.
01:57Why?
01:58Because he's going yard tonight.
01:59PCA plus 440.
02:00And then a banger with Gunnar Henderson at a plus 550 price.
02:04I'm going to Citizens Bank.
02:05Ballpark, Tom.
02:06And I'm headed out to Wrigley.
02:07Get it done.
02:09A lot of run scoring potential because there are some bad pitchers on Stasely.
02:13And that's what I'm going to continue as the season goes on as pitchers are shut down.
02:17Other pitches are called up.
02:19We're going to have a lot of run scoring potential to close out the final two months of the season.
02:23Runs, runs, and more runs today.
02:25But now is the time we love here.
02:26Most people like to take favorites.
02:27Most people like to take RBIs.
02:29Most people like to take overs.
02:30We like to take the dogs of the day.
02:40Beware of that big dog out here, Tom.
02:42That big dog.
02:43Where are you hunting?
02:44Where's that bone at?
02:44Let's turn to the Royals dog, plus 120 on the money line.
02:50You know, the Blue Jays are certainly a very good team.
02:52There's no doubt about it.
02:53But they've been struggling as of late.
02:54And more importantly, their bullpen has been struggling as of late.
02:57And when push comes to shove, you know, Seth Lugo versus Chris Bassett, I think, is a pretty darn even matchup.
03:03And frankly, I give a little bit to Seth Lugo on that side.
03:06And like I said during, you know, we were discussing that game.
03:08If things were flipped and this game was in Kansas City and we were getting plus 120 on the Blue Jays, I would be having the same conversation of just give me the plus money when the pitching matchup is actually really close.
03:17He may have a favor in Seth Lugo.
03:19But the fact that we're getting plus money with it now, I will take this spot for the Royals to come away with the win.
03:25Love plus money.
03:26And by the way, Valdez did get out of that first inning jam here.
03:29No runs on the board just yet.
03:31Houston to Boston as they enter into the top of the second inning.
03:33For me, big dog hunting today.
03:36Actually, the dog was a little bit bigger than what we're showing now because handicapping this baseball game in the morning.
03:40It was like, all right, Mizorowski's on the mound.
03:42I think Lord can hang around and maybe steal one.
03:44And it was a pretty big price point of plus 150.
03:47You look at the marketplace right now, Tom, plus 150s have turned into plus 130s and plus 125s and plus 128s.
03:53Why Henderson is starting on the mound instead of Mizorowski.
03:55So I got a little bit lucky there.
03:56Sometimes you do get the breaks.
03:58But looking at Brad Lord, his last 24 innings pitched over the past 45 days, Tom, a 263 ERA, a 341 XFIP number.
04:05So my big dog of the day is a plus 150 price for the Nationals, which again, they're the favorite now, right?
04:11They're still getting plus 130s, plus 135s, depending on shopping in the marketplace.
04:15But I just got a little bit better price because Mizorowski has been scratched for Henderson.
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