Strategic Baseball Bets on Pitchers’ Strikeout Prop

Watch Strategic Baseball Bets on Pitchers’ Strikeout Prop - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Let's go, man. Pitcher's props, Tom. Roll them off the assembly line. What you got here, huh?

00:04Let's go to Zach Littell. Over four and a half strikeouts at plus 104. You look at him overall

00:08in the season, you're going to say, okay, he's not a big strikeout pitcher. Overall in the year,

00:12he's coming with a 17.2% strikeout rate. He has a good matchup going up against Pittsburgh. They

00:16have a 22.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching. That is the seventh highest in the

00:20league. We look to his recent starts. We're getting eight, four, four, five. Yeah, a couple

00:25starts at three or two. However, every single start since April, he's pitched at least five

00:32innings. He's really never getting blown up too bad. The length will always be there for him to

00:37get deeper into the game. With the plus matchup he has going up against the Pirates, I think we will

00:42start to see that four, five, six type of range. I don't see him falling at two or three. If we lose,

00:47it's going to be losing by the hook, but we're going for plus money today on two different props.

00:50We should be in a good spot. I like it, man. I like it. How about this? Sometimes I just look

00:55at numbers and say, this number doesn't make any sense. Let me do some math on why I should be

01:00batting or at least going contrarian on a certain prop bet today. And that prop bet's going to lie

01:04with Mackenzie Gore. If we line him up over his last 30 days, Tom, 85 batters he's faced. He's got

01:10an 11.8% K rate, which is terrible. He's got an ISO against a 348 and a weighted on base percentage

01:16of 520. Terrible. You can't look for him. You can't have him. Hear me out on this. The San Francisco

01:21Giants don't hit left-handed pitching all that well, and they've been dreadful against it over the

01:25past 30 days. But then you also take a look, Tom, and say, well, let me go back to a game log for

01:30Mackenzie Gore. His last four starts, Tom, 2Ks, 4Ks, 4Ks, and 0Ks. You go, oh man, it's going to be a

01:39Donnie special under 3.5Ks today. No. Did you know Mackenzie Gore's prop today, Tom, is 5.5 strikeouts,

01:46and it's juiced at the 5.5 strikeouts at minus 122? So that's ridiculous. Who would do that? It's the

01:51easiest bet in history to go under. We're just going to tell you a little bit of that caveat,

01:54letting you know how bad San Francisco is. It's a pitcher's ballpark, but also on the season

01:59for Mackenzie Gore. How about this? A 315 ERA and a 340 X skip number and a K rate on the road here for

02:07us at 11.05 per nine innings. You say, he didn't even get a strikeout in his last game. You're going

02:12for six. He never gets that. I'm telling you, Tom, I'm going contrarian today with my boy Gore

02:17out on the West Coast. What did I say about the Mariners? If not now, when? It's the same thing

02:24with Mackenzie Gore. If he can't get it going today against the Giants, you might as well just shut

02:29him down for the final six weeks of the season, get him ready for next year.