US President Donald Trump has threatened India with an unspecified "penalty" over its growing ties with Russia, particularly in defense and energy sectors. This move comes as part of Trump's push for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Here's what's happening ¹:
- *Trade Tensions*: Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports, effective August 1, citing India's high tariffs and non-monetary trade barriers. - *Russia Ties*: India is Russia's largest buyer of military equipment, and Russia accounts for over half of India's military hardware. Russia is also India's top oil supplier, providing around 35% of its oil imports. - *India's Response*: The Ministry of External Affairs has dismissed suggestions of strained India-Russia relations, emphasizing that India's bilateral relationships are independent and based on national interests. - *Potential Impact*: The tariffs and penalty could affect India's economy, particularly in sectors like agriculture and dairy, which are key areas of focus in trade deal negotiations between the US and India.
This development has sparked concerns about the future of US-India trade relations and the potential consequences for India's economy ² ³.
00:05As a military strategic partner, a former planet, you don't want politicians
00:13telegraphing what your next moves are going to be.
00:16The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too.
00:21A peacekeeping force does not exist with a ceasefire.
00:30Now, President Trump has announced that the United States will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from India starting on August 1st.
00:39He also said the world's fifth largest economy will face an unspecified penalty for continuing to trade with Russia on military capability.
00:46It comes as Mr Trump's shortened deadline for Russia to come to the table on a ceasefire in Ukraine inches closer.
00:53With me to discuss, as ever, is our resident analyst, Mikey Kaye, former assault helicopter pilot and senior officer in the British military.
01:01Good to see you again, Mikey.
01:02Me too.
01:03So, lots of talk now on secondary sanctions.
01:08We hear Donald Trump talking about this week.
01:11How does that affect President Putin's ability to target Ukraine if these secondary sanctions do indeed come in?
01:18Yeah, lots to get through tonight.
01:20So, let's start by taking a look at Trump's announcement on bringing the deadline on secondary sanctions and tariffs forward against Russia.
01:30Here he is speaking in the UK earlier this week.
01:32Let's take a look at what he said.
01:34I'm going to make a new deadline of about 10 or 12 days from today.
01:41There's no reason in waiting.
01:43There's no reason in waiting.
01:45It's 50 days.
01:46I want to be generous, but we just don't see any progress being made.
01:52Yeah, in terms of a response by Russia, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia is, quote unquote, immune from the impact based on previous sanctions.
02:03But interestingly, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Putin, responded on Twitter.
02:10Let's have a look on slide.
02:11Medvedev wrote, each new ultimatum, quote, is a threat and a step towards war, not between Russia and Ukraine, but with Trump's own country.
02:21So, Gita, from a military perspective, Trump's true social post today is a good example of how the US is trying to use secondary sanctions as a threat.
02:32Let's go slide and have a look at what he said.
02:34I won't read it ad verbatum, but basically Trump is going after India on its purchase of energy from Russia.
02:40That's around just over two million barrels a day for which Russia is using that funding towards its war in Ukraine.
02:49Twenty five percent tariff indicated by Russia on that post.
02:52And then he also mentions India's purchase of military equipment from Russia.
02:56And there's a penalty that he says, but there's no idea of what that penalty actually is.
03:02The Indian government have responded today saying that the two countries have been engaged in negotiations on concluding a fair, balanced and mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreement over the last few months.
03:13We remain committed to that objective.
03:16So while Trump has said what his potential intent is, there's this sort of indication that there's still some wiggle room from India to actually sort something out.
03:25Now, what's interesting is the truth social post by Trump goes after India and its Russian military capability equipment purchases.
03:33But the counter to that is that India could then pivot away from the US on the purchasing of military capability.
03:40So, for example, India's fast jet fleet comprises of around 70 percent Russian made jets.
03:46I'll give you an indication of what they got.
03:48Let's go slide, please.
03:49So this is the Indian Air Force Russian made Sukhoi 30.
03:55It entered service with India in 2002.
03:58It's its latest purchase, but it's still quite old, 23 years.
04:01Then if we go slide, this is the Indian Air Force Russian made MiG-29.
04:06Now, this has been upgraded with a life extension that could see it in service with the Indian Air Force into the 2030s.
04:14And important to point out just historically, India has had a very long running and established relationship with Russia, partly as a juxtaposition to being under too much US pressure.
04:27The US had historically supported India's arch nemesis in a way, Pakistan, who it sees as a security threat.
04:35But also just just to bring in the whole question of oil imports from Russia, because the Indian High Commissioners to the UK speaking last week in an interview to Times Radio said many of India's European partners are continuing to buy rare earth and other energy products from the same countries that they are, quote, refusing to let us buy from.
04:53And you said, don't you think that seems a little bit odd?
04:56So there are these, you know, other political factors, aren't there?
05:01In terms of where we are now, to what degree does the Indian Air Force have US made fast jet aircraft right now?
05:08So it doesn't. It does have US made transport aircraft.
05:11It's got the Hercules, for example, and the Globemaster, the C-17.
05:14It does have helicopters, but it doesn't have fast jets.
05:17But this is sort of where Trump has to tread a very careful path.
05:22He will be well aware of the current deliberations by India in their aspiration to procure a fifth generation fighter.
05:29Basically, it has the stealth technology involved.
05:31And there are there are two contenders for that.
05:34Let's go slide and have a look.
05:36So this is taken at the India air show in February this year.
05:40On the left of shot, that is the Russian made Sukhoi 57.
05:44Its NATO code name is the Felon.
05:46Russia's fifth generation fighter on the right of the shot.
05:49So they were both at the same air show.
05:51You've got the US made F-35, both vying for India to buy them.
05:56Now, what would India get with this Sukhoi 57?
05:59It would get full full autonomy of the Sukhoi 57.
06:02So what that means is it includes not just assembly in India.
06:06So Russia would make the parts and it would be assembled in India, but also transfer of technology and something called source codes.
06:12Basically, source codes would give India the ability to change the software inside the jet and integrate its own radars, avionics and weapon systems.
06:21Now, when it comes to the F-35 in terms of some of its capability, the F-35 is more advanced, so better stealth technology, for example.
06:28And this allows the F-35 to get closer to targets avoiding radar.
06:34Yeah. And again, in terms of where we are now, it's a move that is being questioned from the US, isn't it?
06:40Within India in that it's seen that really Trump has been very focused on countering China and therefore to target India like this in security terms and military terms is puzzling to some.
06:53But sanctions is what's being discussed now, whether we're going to see these secondary sanctions and how effective current sanctions are.
07:01Where else can the US and Europe target Russia further on sanctions?
07:05I mean, if you look at a pure kinetic capability, what I mean by kinetic is the ability for Russia to launch advanced weapons capability on Ukraine.
07:14The massive problem, it's almost like the elephant in the room, is foreign components being used in Russian military capability that Zelensky has actually highlighted the issue.
07:24I mean, it's been ongoing for some time now, but Zelensky highlighted the issue at the NATO summit last month.
07:30Let's take a look at what Zelensky said.
07:32Please make sure your countries and your companies are not helping Russia or its bodies in any way.
07:41This is very important. This is crucial, really.
07:44And there is no significant Russian weapon today that is produced without components, without equipment or materials from other countries.
07:55Sadly, including some from Europe and NATO. Yes, of course.
08:00And this must stop. Such components can be found in every Russian missile, in most of their drones and in military vehicles.
08:12And it's not just China. Also Taiwan. And some of these parts come from the European countries and from the United States.
08:25And every single component or machine tool delivered to Russia's defence sector helps prolong the war and is a crime against peace.
08:36Every scheme that helps them build Shahid drones or any other tools of killing is not just aiding a war against us. It's a threat to you.
08:49So what capability is Zelensky referring to that basically foreign components that pervasive across a lot of Russian weapons?
08:57In fact, according to the organised crime and corruption project, that's the same organisation that blew the top of the Panama Papers.
09:04So very credible. Customs data found that from 2022 to January 2024, more than 200,000 shipments of restricted microelectronics entered Russia.
09:16Among the most frequently found components in Russian weapons are microprocessors and they are produced by American companies.
09:23Let's go side and I'll give you a look at what we're looking at. So this is the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.
09:29It's basically dropped from a Russian strategic bomber. We saw that attack by Ukraine on strategic Russian bombers well out in the east.
09:35They're the type of aircraft that carry this cruise missile. Let's go slide.
09:39This is the Kinzel hypersonic missile. It's fairly old now, but it's got a speed of Mach 4 plus. That's four times the speed of sound.
09:46And then you have the Shahed 136 drone. Now, why these are important is in June alone, Russia launched over 5,400 of these drones on Ukraine.
10:00So absolutely vital that these components are targeted. Now, this is these are the type of capability.
10:06There's more. But these are sort of the headlines in terms of the capability.
10:09Now, the U.S. companies that are providing these components have publicly come out and oppose their products being used for military purposes, especially by Russia,
10:17but have struggled to supply or fully control their supply chains in terms of sanctions and the loopholes, which are absolutely widespread.
10:25Many Russia's importers, the way they're doing is they continue importing Western parts through shell companies or intermediaries.
10:32And so that is U.S. companies. What about other countries?
10:36Well, worryingly, for me, Russia's latest hypersonic missile, it's called the Oreshnik.
10:42That also contains foreign components. I'll just show you a bit of video footage here.
10:46This is the Oreshnik. People say or test fired on Dnipro last year, which is in Ukraine.
10:53And what's what's absolutely deadly about this is it's got a speed of about Mach 10, which is 10 times the speed of sound.
11:00What's deadly about this is that it can carry nuclear or conventional warheads.
11:03It can carry six warheads with each warhead having six sub munitions.
11:07So that's 36 off one missile going at 10 times the speed of sound.
11:12And according to the Financial Times, this also requires foreign parts or has foreign parts for manufacture.
11:18I mean, the Reliance Gita is particularly pronounced in the field of what's called computer numerical control, CNC.
11:25This technology allows factories to rapidly shape materials at high precision by using computers to control the tools.
11:31Now, there's a Japanese company involved in that and there's two German companies involved in that.
11:36And they make the systems for this technology.
