- 4 months ago
In this episode of India First, the focus is on mounting pressure on India-US relations. The discussion centres on a 'triple whammy' from the Trump administration: a sudden $100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, the revocation of a crucial sanctions waiver for India's operations at the Chabahar port, and additional tariffs on exports due to India's purchase of Russian oil.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savanth, U.S. President.
00:04Donald Trump is speaking at the United Nations General Assembly.
00:08And for the nth time, he's claimed that he ended seven wars in just over seven months of his presidency.
00:16He's claimed credit for ending seven un-un-endable wars, as he described,
00:23emphasizing his role in global peace efforts.
00:27One of the seven wars, he said, was also the war between India and Pakistan.
00:42Do this job. He listed out the seven wars when he said Cambodia, Thailand, Kosovo, Serbia, Congo, Rwanda, Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran, and Armenia, Azerbaijan are the wars that he ended.
00:56He, of course, has emphasized on his foreign policy initiative and narrative, which he insists focuses extensively on reducing American military involvement overseas.
01:09Before I get you more on this big story, let's listen in to U.S. President Donald Trump at the U.N.
01:15It's not making Russia look good.
01:16Likewise, in a period of just seven months, I have ended seven un-endable wars.
01:24They said they were un-endable.
01:26You're never going to get them solved.
01:28Some were going for 31 years.
01:30Two of them.
01:3131.
01:32Think of it.
01:3231 years.
01:33One was 36 years.
01:35One was 28 years.
01:37I ended seven wars.
01:41And in all cases, they were raging with countless thousands of people being killed.
01:48This includes Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Congo and Rwanda, a vicious violent war that was,
01:59Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Armenia and Azerbaijan.
02:09It included all of them.
02:11Now, the big story coming in.
02:20The Donald Trump administration is now exploring significant changes on how H-1B visas are issued.
02:28Now, the filing that's been submitted in the Office of the Information and Regulatory Affairs,
02:34and this has been submitted on the 17th of July, the Department of Homeland Security or the DHS,
02:39it's proposed introducing a weighted selection process for applicants under the cap portion of the H-1B visas.
02:49Now, because the number of applicants far outstrips the openings, there was a lottery system
02:56that's currently being used to determine who are beneficiaries of the H-1B visas.
03:02And India, of all the visas that are issued, 71% beneficiaries are Indians.
03:08Now, this change would impact and affect the 85,000 statutorily capped visas and prioritizes factors like a salary or a qualification.
03:21Indians who make the majority of H-1B visa recipients may be impacted by this.
03:28And I quickly want to cut across to India Today's Foreign Affairs editor, Geeta Mohan, who joins us for more on this.
03:33So, Geeta, from the lottery system to the weighted system that will be issued on educational qualifications, on salary caps,
03:44what are the changes that are being proposed and how does that impact the H-1B visa seekers in India?
03:50Well, again, you know, we'll have to wait for a detailed explanation.
03:53But from what we are seeing and what I gather, Gaurav, it's very clear from the statements that were made earlier by the Trump administration,
04:02by senior officials in the Trump administration and by President Trump himself when he said we want Americans to get the jobs.
04:09Now, what kind of jobs are the Americans going to get?
04:12They're going to get the jobs which, because of cheaper labor and skilled labor coming from India,
04:21were also occupying the spaces which basically categorized about $65,000 and less income group as well.
04:30Now, high-skilled techies from India are not replaceable.
04:35They're irreplaceable, very strong assets, not just for India, but particularly for the United States of America.
04:41So, this H-1B visa that now is capping or weighing the categories will in all probability have to do with the high-skilled,
04:54high-paying jobs which will be secured by Indians who are hired for very specific, very high-end jobs
05:02and very high-end and high-skilled or high-intensive skills.
05:07Stay with me for a moment. There's more breaking news coming in from the UNGA address of the U.S. President Donald Trump.
05:14It's a big comment on India and China.
05:17President Donald Trump says China and India are the main funders of Russia's war on Ukraine.
05:25This is President Trump targeting China and India.
05:29Now, it remains to be seen whether he also talks about U.S. that continues to import from Russia
05:37palladium fertilizers and European Union that continues to be the biggest importer of natural gas from Russia
05:45and continues to import oil.
05:47Or even in his UNGA address as he blames the United Nations for an escalator that does not work
05:53or his teleprompter that was not working, does he only pass the buck blaming China and India
06:00and not the European Union and the United States of America?
06:05And, of course, China remains the biggest importer of Russian oil.
06:10I want to once again bring in India Today's Foreign Affairs editor, Gita Mohan.
06:13So, Gita, it's almost like, you know, a template that he's made, whether it's at the White House
06:21or at the UN, it's the same speech.
06:23Now, he says China and India are the biggest funders of Russia's war.
06:27Well, if you look at everything that he said, it's a reiteration.
06:30Whether they're calling the United Nations an irrelevant agency, poor, dilapidated, broken,
06:38making fun at the United Nations, hurling insults at the United Nations,
06:43so for that matter claiming the seven unending wars that he ended
06:47and now going ahead and reiterating what he's been saying all along,
06:52that India and China are the main funders of the Russia-Ukraine war.
06:56Also, more importantly, Gaurav over here, he's reiterating something that's very important
07:00in which Marco Rubio also only a while ago said in an interview,
07:04saying that Europe has also been, one, buying oil from Russia, that they should stop
07:10and secondly, he's insisting that as America has done, so should Europe impose sanctions
07:17on countries that are importing oil and gas from Russia.
07:21Now, that's an impossible ask because we know that there are countries in Europe
07:24who not only take oil or gas from Russia but also import oil indirectly from India
07:31and that's Russian oil. So, in all probability for Europe, it will be an impossible
07:36but Trump reiterating that in no other place but the United Nations General Assembly Hall
07:42is certainly a big, big news, a big development.
07:46Trump upping the ante over here, escalating those tensions that we're seeing
07:51between India and the US, not so much between US and China, Gaurav.
07:56And this happens at a time, Gita. There you have India's External Affairs Minister
08:00who's at the UNGA. You have India's Commerce Minister, Piyush Goyal.
08:05So, you have Dr. Jai Shankar and Piyush Goyal at two different interactions
08:09with the United States. One with the US Secretary of State
08:14and the other with the Commerce Secretary and the Trade Representatives.
08:17Also, the two leaders met, Marco Rubio and Dr. Jai Shankar, had met yesterday in New York
08:25ahead of Donald Trump's speech. And the readout, whatever, the brief readout that was put out
08:33was about how they're looking at the developments and relations and wanting to move forward.
08:39Marco Rubio in an interview today said that, yes, that they have levied extra 25% tariff
08:45but they would want to fix it. But in the same breath, also spoke about how
08:49not just America, countries as in Europe also should start sanctioning other countries
08:54to dissuade them from importing Russian oil. So, mixed signals coming from Washington.
09:02Doesn't seem like they're going to move forward on a thaw in the tense ties between India
09:09and the US anytime soon, Gaurav. They do have an ask.
09:12And trade negotiations are on. Now, all of these, are these levers of negotiation?
09:17And Geetha, stay with me. Absolutely.
09:18Because for the benefit of viewers who are joining us, the India-US trade negotiations,
09:23we are being told they're in a crucial phase. Optimist signal progress towards a resolution.
09:29Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is heading the Indian team. Rajesh Agrawal,
09:33special secretary in the Department of Commerce and the chief trade negotiator. They're already
09:38in the US. This follows a visit by the US team led by US trade representative for South
09:46and Central Asia, Brendan Lynch. He'd earlier visited Delhi. However, there are those analysts
09:51who say that US President Donald Trump not only imposed the initial 25%, but an additional 25%
09:58tariff or sanctions on India for continuing to buy the Russian oil. But he also hit India
10:03with a double whammy. First, the revocation of the exemption from sanctions for the Chabahar port
10:10and then the H-1B visa fee hiked to $100,000. This is being seen as a potential negotiation
10:17or a negotiating lever. External Affairs Minister Dr. Jayashankar has met US Secretary of State Marco
10:23Rubio, New York, on the sidelines of UNGA. Jayashankar also met US Ambassador nominee Sergio
10:28Gore, who spoke of strengthening bilateral ties. But let me elaborate a bit on this triple whammy.
10:35First, the H-1B visa. That's a sudden shock. Trump has ordered a $100,000 fee on every new H-1B
10:43visa petition. Now, this order came into effect midnight September 21. It's the biggest hit on
10:48Indian IT firms, which are the largest users, 71% of this entire visa program. Industry experts
10:55warn this is a massive cost burden. It threatens both competitiveness and future hirings from India.
11:03Now, let me now focus on number two, the Chabahar port sanctions. Again, on the 20th of September,
11:08very quietly, US revoked India's waiver for operations at this very crucial Chabahar port
11:14that India and Iran were working on. Now, this waiver that was granted in 2018 had been vital for
11:21India's not just trade, but connectivity, not just with Afghanistan, but also with Central Asia and beyond.
11:27Now, this reversal, part of Trump's maximum pressure on Iran policy, directly impacts India's strategic
11:34interests and India's economic interests and the outreach to the region. The third,
11:39the tariffs on exports that we were talking about, the 25% additional tariffs beyond the 25%,
11:46the 25% that were imposed on the 27th of August, and that's because of India continuing to buy Russian
11:52oil. So, what does this indicate? 50% plus tariffs, the steepest on a trading partner. What does this
12:01mean? Let's try and make sense of these developments. Joining me on this India First
12:04special broadcast, our ambassador Vivek Karju, former secretary, Minister of External Affairs,
12:09and he's been our ambassador to Afghanistan. Craig Kafura is director of public opinion and
12:14foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. And in a moment, I'll be joined by my
12:19colleague Sandeep Unnithan for more on this big story. Ambassador Karju, you've been our ambassador to
12:24Afghanistan. Trump is seeking that Bagram Airbase again, and he's revoking the sanctions exemption
12:31given to India for Chabahar port. Now, do you see this as a negotiations lever ahead of forward
12:39movement on the trade deal? Or is there more to it than meets the eye? Before I answer your question,
12:47let me say this, that it is one thing to make statements nationally on positions which are bilateral,
12:58and it's quite another thing to make them in a UNGA speech. Today, he is up the ante exponentially.
13:07India, at this crucial stage, when Jay Shankar is there, when Piyush Goyal is also there to negotiate
13:18the trade deal, I think the first decision that they will have to take is whether they exercise the
13:25right of reply, which is that whether some Indian diplomat will, at some stage today, say that the
13:35war, the India-Pakistan clash, Operation Sindur was ended on Indian terms, bilateral. That will be a test
13:48of the Modi government's resolve. That is the first point. And the second point, will we say that as far as
13:58oil is concerned, we will continue to buy Russian oil or buy oil from any source that is in conformity
14:07with our interests. This is a very delicate moment for Indian diplomacy. And I would hate to be in the
14:16position of the two ministers, especially in Jay Shankar's position today, because if we place this on record
14:25in the United Nations, then it will stay there forever. And it would mean that in the UN, we have refuted
14:33the US president's statement. So, that is a first dilemma that our diplomats will face. And indeed,
14:41our political leadership will also face at the highest level. Now, second, coming to your specific
14:47question. Well, I've seen that the Taliban have said that there is no question of their handing over
14:53Bagram to the US. In response, Trump has indicated that he has levers. I don't know what kind of levers
15:02he is talking about because he is the one who withdrew from Afghanistan and accepted a humiliating defeat,
15:12strategic defeat at the hands of the Taliban, aided by Pakistan in the forever war.
15:18So, I, for one, do not see how he can, in the face of Taliban intransigence, hope to get Bagram.
15:28Even if, now, this is my last point, even if he were to offer them diplomatic recognition,
15:35which, of course, the Russians have, but I don't see it, see that happening easily. As far as Chabhar is
15:41concerned, he is, of course, squeezing us. It is in conformity with what he has done on H-1 visas, on the
15:50three, on tariffs, and on Chabhar. So, it's part of the same continuum. He will, Agora, mind you,
16:02he will not be satisfied with getting relief, getting his way only on the trade deal. He will also want us to bend on
16:12on Russian, purchase of Russian oil. And my fear is, my fear is that he want, he might want his appetite
16:24witted, he might want more. And you know what I mean when I say he want, might want more. So, this is a very difficult
16:32time for us diplomatically.
16:35Craig Kafura, how do you look at all that Donald Trump is saying, especially after India had made it very clear,
16:42he had no role to play whatsoever, uh, in bringing about the ceasefire between India and Pakistan. If he spoke to
16:50Pakistan and got Pakistan to speak to India for a ceasefire, that's for him to clarify. But does
16:56that put India-US relations in a very difficult situation right now? Because India may have to,
17:02or perhaps would have to, uh, exercise the right to reply and refute him. So, I think you framed it
17:09earlier as mixed signals from Washington, and I think that's right. So, you've identified these three
17:14different things that all affect India, right? You've got the increased tariffs because of Russian
17:19oil purchases, you've got the Chabahar port, uh, revocations, and you've got the H-1B changes.
17:26But I suspect that all of those have come out of different sources and different policy processes,
17:31right? We've seen previously that US immigration policy and US trade and security policies are not
17:37talking to each other, right? We saw this in the, in the Hyundai plant raid in Georgia, right?
17:42South Korea agreed to invest huge amounts of money. They just closed to deal with the US.
17:46They're going into negotiations on their issues, but that seems to have been a completely unrelated
17:52raid that has really tanked US-South Korea relations. I suspect that the Trump administration
17:57did not even think of the impacts on US-India relations when it decided to make H-1B changes.
18:03On the Chabahar port, same thing. I suspect they thought only about how do we pressure Iran more.
18:09And I say this because, as far as I can tell, a lot of the interagency processes,
18:13a lot of the things that would normally characterize US policymaking have sort of just
18:18fallen apart under the Trump administration, right? Different parts of the government are
18:22not necessarily talking to each other. They're not necessarily coordinating policies. They aren't
18:26thinking of second order effects that their decisions are making. I think the one where things
18:31really are about US-India are the tariffs for Russian oil purchases. And I'm not convinced that
18:36Donald Trump cares that much at his core about Russian oil purchases. I think this is motivated
18:42almost purely out of spite for Modi not lavishing him in praise for whatever he happened to do
18:49with the India-Pakistan conflict. And you can see him bringing it up again today at the UN,
18:53listing all of these wars that he claims to have solved going on for so long and saving so many lives.
18:58How much involvement do you really think he had in any of those wars ending? He seems to just be openly
19:04campaigning for a Nobel Prize Prize and wanting to see which leaders are going to go along with him,
19:09which leaders will bend the knee and sort of abase themselves before him.
19:13Before I bring in Sadeep, Ambassador, do you want to quickly respond to that point that various agencies
19:18in the United States of America may be working in silos and the three things, the H-1B visa,
19:26the increased tariffs and all of that that he's saying, they may not be interlinked?
19:34Gaurav, it is 101 of practical diplomacy that I learned that it doesn't matter what the internal
19:44processes of a country are. That is for that country. What matters is how my interests are being armed.
19:54And if in each case, at the level of the prime minister, we have pointed out how our interests
20:02are being damaged and the Trump administration takes the plea that one arm doesn't speak to another arm
20:11and there is no coherence, there is no communication, then what am I supposed to do?
20:18How am I supposed to respond? As far as I'm concerned, I'm not concerned what is the,
20:26what is the, my damage is coming from which direction of the United States administration.
20:33What concerns me is that my interests are being damaged and that the White House,
20:38which is supposed to coordinate policy in any government, it is the top leadership,
20:44which coordinates policy. And I find this fissile to say that the chief of staff,
20:51that the national security advisor are not in a position to coordinate different aspects of US policy
20:59and that they are not able to present in a coherent fashion, these elements to the president.
21:05Okay, let me get Sandeep Punnithan.
21:07These are excuses and these excuses we should just simply brush at night.
21:12Okay, let me bring in Sandeep Punnithan because that 2018 waiver for Chabahar port held India in good stead.
21:20How do you see Trump administration revoking the exemption quietly ahead of trade talks,
21:27unless these are levers being pressed to extract the maximum bank for their buck for the US?
21:35Absolutely, Gaurav. There's no doubt about it. Every lever that can be pulled, every lever that can be pushed to pressurize India has already been pushed.
21:44We've seen that over the last couple of days. Of course, Chabahar was the final act. They've done everything, the kind of rhetoric.
21:51And, you know, Gaurav, to give you an analogy of how the entire US, you know, negotiation style has been.
21:58It's like, you know, a military assault. First, you have the artillery, the heavy artillery, and then the tanks move in.
22:06And then finally, the infantry moves in. And the infantry here is the trade delegations. And before that, you've seen this unparalleled bombardment on social media with all of Trump's acolytes coming and, you know, hitting out at India at, you know, at our buying of Russian oil.
22:21The kind of language that we've seen, Gaurav, is something that we have not seen coming out of the United States in a very long time.
22:28Some people say this is our…
22:29Dead economy, laundromat, the kind of terminology they're using.
22:331998. Is it 1971? I'm not quite sure the kind of language that's coming out. And Trump is singularly responsible for setting India-US relations back by a quarter of a century.
22:47And I've spoken to some of Ambassador Karju's colleagues and they tell me, you know, my question to them is, why is India playing it so calm? Why is it, you know, so measured in the statements that are coming out?
22:58And they said, look, whatever we say now is going to echo decades from now, right? We have a responsibility to ensure that this is the kind of line that India took and it was, you know, respected.
23:10And the world has taken note of it, Gaurav. The language that India has used in these last couple of weeks in the face of very great provocations in the United States has been outstanding.
23:22And, you know, you say that we've been set back if it's either by 20, 25 years, if it's back to 98 or by 50 years, if we go back to 71.
23:32And Craig Kafura, U.S. actions so far, including going soft on Pakistan, indicates that this comprehensive strategic partnership is not valued by the U.S. president much.
23:43Of course, he didn't care for allies like the EU or Japan or South Korea.
23:47But do you see more headwinds in India-US relations?
23:51Because in India, the assessment at least of the strategic community or the civil society is this relationship is not important for President Trump at all.
24:00I mean, you're right. He doesn't really seem to care about U.S. relationships with other allies and partners.
24:07Look at how he treated the Japanese, the South Koreans, the Europeans.
24:11I think you're accurate to say that he doesn't value the strategic aspect of this relationship.
24:16I think he's really reacting on a personal level, right?
24:19His personal relationship with Modi and how that's gone and how that's evolved.
24:23I do also think the other factor here is how does Trump's relationship with Xi evolve in his second term?
24:29Because the other way that this can turn around for the U.S.-India relationship is for Trump to have a falling out with Xi.
24:34If they don't get along, if relations between the U.S. and China sour, Trump likely to turn around, reverse all the previous statements, right?
24:42You have to remember also, Trump says a lot of things, does not hold a lot of very deep beliefs on most issues.
24:49So, as bad as things are now, if the wind changes six months from now, he could be in a completely different position.
24:56But I agree with the ambassador. It is not India's job to deal with the problems of internal U.S. policymaking.
25:03You may have to connect the dots in some meetings, though.
25:06You may have to line things up and explain to your American counterparts,
25:09hey, all of these different things are having this series of effects, and this is how we're seeing it from our side.
25:13And I say that simply…
25:16Okay. Ambassador Kaju, do you see more headwinds ahead?
25:21Because there are already reports from the U.S. that suggest Trump may be looking at that OPT program
25:26or that optional practical training program which permits students to work during and after their studies.
25:33There's a new bill that aims to end the OPT program and then put a tax on the earnings from OPT program.
25:40There's also a proposed 3.5% tax on foreign remittances by non-citizens to the U.S.
25:46That too could adversely impact India. Will adversely impact Indians there?
25:50Look, at the end of the day, all my experience has taught me that countries look at who can harm them.
26:03more than who can help them. Why is Trump a little wary of China?
26:10Because China has leverages against the United States.
26:15Even at a personal level, if his ties with Xi break down, he's a smart man.
26:21Unless he was a smart man, he could not have been in the position he is in. He is a very egoistic, egoistical man.
26:30But that's a separate thing. He is smart, no doubt. And he realizes when… how China can damage him.
26:37His allies, Japan, the EU allies can't harm him in that way. So he treats them with disdain. We can't harm him today. China can. And that is what he is respecting. And that is what he is responding to.
26:53Okay. Sandeep, is this an opportunity for India? As Amitabh Kant, India's G20 Sherpa put it, you know, he said words to the effect, by slamming the door on global talent, America pushes the next wave of labs and patents and innovations and startups in Indian cities, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Gurgaon.
27:13So, would that be an apprehension in the US or in Trump's thinking or not at all?
27:18Well, you know, to some extent, yes, Gaurav. And, you know, I agree with what Amitabh Kant said. Because in India, we don't move until we've got a jolt.
27:28And we've seen that the greatest example of that was in 1991. Liberalization. We moved to liberalize the economy only when our gold reserves had to be flown out to the United Kingdom.
27:39And this is possibly our 1991 moment again. A lot of people have been saying that, that, you know, the kind of pressure that we are facing from the United States over tariffs and, you know, other issues.
27:51This is the moment for India to actually make good of that Aatmanirbar Bharat slogan that we've been hearing for so long.
27:58And, you know, all these other slogans, Gaurav, ease of doing business and all that. You just talk to the businessman and they'll tell you how they have to actually put in a lot of grease for doing business.
28:09And it's not so much of ease. So, you know, things like this, it's time for us to wake up and make it easier for Indian businesses to stand up and make a difference.
28:18And, you know, whether it is high technology issues like, you know, fighter jet engines, fifth generation fighter aircraft, we need special programs.
28:27There are those templates we have done. We have done it with the nuclear submarine project, for instance, when we've had the kind of laser focus of the PMO.
28:36We need to do it with all of these other programs as well.
28:39So, this is, I think, our moment and it is for us to, you know, completely lose it. So, this is a moment that…
28:47So, in this, if we look at it, crack of Ura, if India were to look at this opportunity and adversity, do you see this put massive damage, lasting damage on India-US relations?
28:57It could, depending on how long this lasts. And I do think that the damage, especially on H-1Bs, on if the OPT program has ended,
29:07I think the people-to-people ties is where the damage is really going to be most severe, if it lasts for more than a couple years.
29:12And I'd be really curious to see if that OPT decision ends up going through, given how much Silicon Valley relies on students who are fresh out of universities,
29:22fresh out of PhD training programs, on those OPTs to, you know, build those first products, to work at those startup companies.
29:29If Silicon Valley doesn't revolt over this, I don't know what they'd revolt over. This would be immensely damaging to their interests.
29:35Okay. I will let that be the last word of this part of the show, but that's a story we'll be tracking very closely.
29:40To my guests, many thanks for joining me.
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