Denver Broncos Season Preview with Brandon Krisztal

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00:00We are previewing the Denver Broncos season with Brandon Cristal from

00:22Gorilla Sports. Get him on Twitter at BK Denver Sports. Again, just to throw

00:26some numbers atches. It surrounds this Broncos team. An over-under of 9.5 wins, plus money to

00:31the over at plus 110 on FanDuel, minus 130 if you want to take them at 9 or below. Plus

00:37330, an intriguing number to win the AFC West. We can explore that coming up in the next little

00:42bit. 14-1 to win the conference, 28-1 to win the Super Bowl. These are all FanDuel odds.

00:47As far as make-miss playoffs, this is basically a pick-em. Minus 114 to make it, minus 106 to

00:54miss the dance, which is something they did not do last year, snapped that eight-year

00:58drought. Sean Payton and Bo Nix got them into the postseason. But as Brady was just talking

01:02about and teeing you up for, BK, it was, you know, a multitude of things, right? It was

01:08decimating opponents, you know, many blowouts, but also not going so well in the tight games,

01:15which, you know, I think in some ways you could point to inexperience, Bo Nix, obviously,

01:19and credit the defense a lot of the time, too, in some of those blowouts. And it was a great,

01:24you know, top three scoring defense last year, led by Sertan, as we talked about. But as Brady

01:29put it, the what comes up must go down as well. What do you expect here in the new year?

01:35Yeah, as we see with most teams, you know, and maybe Washington was a bit of an exception last year,

01:41you kind of have to go over these hurdles. We saw it, you know, maybe with OKC in the basketball

01:46playoffs, where they weren't ever really in close games. The Nuggets stole a couple from them,

01:51and then they figured out how to win those. So you look at the Broncos, and the last time

01:55they were good at football, and the last time they made the playoffs, they won it all in Super Bowl

02:0050 back in 2015, similar to the Chiefs last year. I know the Chiefs didn't finish it off, but I think

02:05the Broncos were in 13 one-score games that year, 11, and they won all of them on the road to Super Bowl

02:1050. And they had a really good defense, and Peyton Manning managed the offense, but, you know,

02:14it was his worst year in terms of his production, right? He had less interceptions or more interceptions

02:20and touchdowns. He missed those games with injury where Brock Osweiler started, but not to digress

02:24too much. I think that they will find ways to win those close games. Having a good defense helps,

02:29but having a quarterback that has been in those moments will also help, and the young players

02:33around him. And so if you're in closer games, though, and we do think that, obviously, you know,

02:39we touched on it a little bit. The AFC West is still going to be competitive. I, at least,

02:43I'm not saying you can't. I can't pick any team, Chargers, Raiders, or Broncos, to beat the Chiefs

02:48until we see the Chiefs lose the division. They've won it every year that Patrick Mahomes has been

02:52the starter, and they won it the year before that with Alex Smith in 2016. And so they were

02:57obviously on a heck of a run, and we know that they improved their O-line. Their defense will always

03:01be solid with Steve Spagnuolo, and obviously Chris Jones up front leading the way. So I can't pick the

03:06Broncos to win the division. It won't blow my mind if they do, because we don't know how healthy

03:10the Chiefs will be. And, you know, if the Broncos get the ball to bounce their waist, and the Chiefs

03:14maybe don't have it bounce their way the way it did so many times last year. But when you're looking

03:18for value, I still, you know, would love to see what prop bets are out there on team sack totals.

03:23I'd love to see what Bo Nix's yardage total is in touchdowns. I don't know if you go from 29

03:27to 40, but if the number's right around 27 and a half, I don't think he's going to have less

03:32touchdown passes with a better command of the offense. And you talked about continuity, Adam,

03:35before we took that break. This is the first time since high school, Bo Nix has had the same

03:40play caller year to year. He's had a different play caller all six years in college, and obviously

03:45going from his dad and that system in high school. So first time in what, eight years, he's going to

03:50have the same play caller. And that means a lot. Real quick, Brady, 3,500.5, 3,500.5, the passing

03:59yardage on FanDuel for Bo Nix this year. And the touchdown number is low. It's 24 and a half.

04:04I like the over on both. 37.75 last year as he's figuring it out. And obviously we talked about

04:09the 29 touchdowns against 12 picks. So I bet over on both. I'm not saying bet your, you know,

04:14bet your mortgage payment, but it feels like a good opportunity to make some money there if he

04:18just does what he did as a rookie. What do you do with RJ Harvey? And I don't know if the prop market

04:23has posted anything on him yet, but what is your overall assessment? What's the word there? You're right

04:29there in Denver. I think there was a lot of positivity about this guy out of UCF, you know,

04:35when they did draft him, you said some people might've felt it was a bit of a reach, but,

04:39but I know others, you know, that thought this guy, you know, really has a positive ceiling here in

04:44the NFL. What are your thoughts? What's the word around Denver on their rookie out of Central Florida?

04:50Well, we've seen Sean Payton hit on guys that weren't necessarily rated as high. Alvin Kamara being

04:55the best example. Sean Payton thought he was losing them in the second round. Couldn't believe he was

04:59there when he got him in the third round. And he talks about Kamara a lot. And you have to trust

05:05the guy that's been as productive as his offenses have been. What I, what I like for Harvey when he's

05:09on the field, I do think JK Dobbins will cut into that early workload as it probably should while he's

05:14healthy as Harvey's figuring it out, they're built about the same. So there's not much of a change of

05:20pace, if you will, from either of those guys. And they're both very stout. Neither are huge backs.

05:27And then you have Julio McLaughlin, who I think sticks on the team because of how quick he is,

05:30but Harvey might be as fast in a straight line. And if they decide that that's the case, you know,

05:35they took Odrick estimate last year in the fifth round out of, out of Notre Dame, who had, I think,

05:4023 touchdowns his last two years in South Bend had fumble issues and just couldn't get on the field.

05:45And they like these other kids. They've got Blake Watson out of Memphis and Bidet. But as to Harvey

05:50specifically and talking about Sean Payton, he's always number one or top three, top five at worst

05:55in throwing the ball out of the backfield to running backs. And I think even if we look last year,

05:59they're still there with the attempts to McLaughlin and certainly to Javante. And so I think if you can

06:05get a number on Harvey catches, I'd like to over on that because it's probably going to be low. I don't

06:08know if that probably actually exists, but they might have a yardage total. And if he's going to be out

06:14there and they are going to be committed to running it a little bit more, then you might find some

06:18value. I just don't know if the, if the markets will have an idea of what to set on any of these

06:22Broncos runners. But, you know, if we go back to the Bo Nix touchdown thing, uh, touchdown passes,

06:28there's probably value in overs on guys like Cortland Sutton and Evan Ingram specifically.

06:33And maybe it's low if they put them out there for those other young receivers, but Harvey's going to

06:37be intriguing. And I think that over time, the next couple of years, if he turns into the back that we

06:42think Sean Payton expects him to be, then he's going to certainly at least be good fantasy value

06:47every week. Even if you can't figure out exactly other than maybe an anytime touchdown, how to make

06:51money on a week to week or over the season. Nothing posted for RJ Harvey on FanDuel right now.

06:56I will tell you, Cortland Sutton is sitting at six and a half as the line for touchdowns for yards.

07:01It's probably lower than you would think. It's 900.5 after obviously going for a thousand plus last year.

07:08Okay. We've got about 30 seconds, but are we going to get another top five scoring defense

07:13out of Vance Joseph? I think we're going to have the best defense in football here in the mile high

07:18city. And I say, we, I'm just saying we, cause you said we, uh, but I think that with the pieces

07:23they added, like, like, uh, Brady mentioned with the Fonga, if he's healthy, certainly with, uh,

07:29Dre Greenlaw and adding Jade Barron in the mix with Riley Moss and PS2 and that pass rush.

07:34So yeah, they're going to be really good on defense. Brandon Cristal on Twitter, BK Denver

07:39Sports. He is a host and reporter at Guerrilla Sports. BK. Thank you, sir. Thank you.

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