00:00Attention isn't just on the economic impact, but also on the geopolitical fallout that could follow with Washington hardening its stance on China and global supply chains already under stress,
00:12the world may be entering a new phase of strategic competition.
00:16Could this trigger new global blocs? Can ASEAN remain non-aligned in an increasingly polarized world?
00:23Here to give us his insights is Dr. Benjamin Barton from University of Nottingham, Malaysia.
00:28Dr. Barton, what are the likely diplomatic consequences from key US allies and partners?
00:34Will we see more alignment with Washington's approach or resistance due to economic exposure to China?
00:41Thanks for the question.
00:43Well, I think actually that what we've seen so far is alignment with the US to a certain extent.
00:50What the main allies have been doing is to seek the application of diplomatic means in order to strike deals
00:58with the United States.
00:59So the first that we saw was the United Kingdom.
01:01But currently, both Canada and the European Union are negotiating an agreement which they hope will be reached very soon with the US.
01:10So it would seem that, you know, despite the threats, despite the rhetoric and the discourse employed by the president,
01:18notably if you think about the way that he, President Trump speaks of the European Union,
01:24those allies have been seeking, you know, to work behind the scenes as a means of coming to terms with the US
01:33and striking a free trade agreement or a trade agreement of some sorts in order to kind of mitigate some of the diplomatic fallout.
01:40So I think that, you know, for all the things which have been said, ultimately what they want is to come to terms
01:46and to limit the damage caused possibly by, you know, the application of fairly high tariffs.
01:52Yeah, you mentioned the application of fairly high tariffs and we haven't seen yet the full list so far.
02:01Now, could this trigger a wider geopolitical chain reaction?
02:04For example, a constant tariff raise, you know, realignments among middle powers,
02:09or perhaps even new blocs forming around trade and tax sovereignty?
02:12I don't really think so.
02:17I think actually the response by the rest of the international community has been to put the emphasis on a reinvigoration of free trade agreements.
02:27I mean, we're seeing this here in Malaysia, you know, talking about the European Union,
02:31that after a decade of having postponed their free trade agreement talks, now all of that is back on.
02:38And I think that there's a similar sentiment being shared across the world, whether it's states or regional actors.
02:46The recognition is that, you know, what this episode is teaching the rest of the international community
02:52is a need to diversify, to lessen dependence and to strike deals as a means of moving away from, you know,
03:03the heavy hand of trading, you know, perhaps over-exclusively with the United States.
03:09So I think that that's the way that the rest of the world is dealing with the consequences of Trump's tariffs.
03:16It's looking for that diversification of trade partners.
03:19Now, whether that would transform geopolitically into blocs, I mean, you can think of, you know,
03:26BRICS, for instance, which on paper has rejected Trump's tariffs.
03:30Does that really represent a contesting and opposing bloc as such?
03:36I think there's still a very long way to go.
03:39There's no real institutional backbone behind it.
03:42It's a fairly loose group of quite different states, although they may share kind of similar positions.
03:49On certain issues, I don't really think that that's, we can call that a bloc per se.
03:53But indeed, I think that the rest of the world is looking for ways to soften the blow
04:00and to do so by striking their own free-paid agreements.
04:04Thank you so much, doctor.
04:06I'm sure we can speak a lot more about this if time permits.
04:10That was Dr. Benjamin Martin of University of Nottingham, Malaysia.
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