00:00That's a significant majority.
00:02But as you say, this no longer is a meaningful vote.
00:06It's just not like that.
00:09It's so confused, so many amendments, so many concessions in this.
00:15And you're right, it's not only this.
00:18It's borders, it's loads of different things, migration going on.
00:24The backlash is already here.
00:26I mean, we're already reformer ahead.
00:28And, you know, and I say this, I'm not going to say I say this with respect,
00:33but I don't, it's just the reality.
00:35The Conservatives aren't even in the conversation at the moment
00:37because of your record during the last government.
00:41So the stakes are enormously high now.
00:44Now, there's one thing that is true, is that Stephen Timms did say
00:47that when this review comes in autumn, so he gave it a specific time.
00:52Now, we can say that autumn's been September and November, more or less.
00:58He's going to have to come up with a very, very serious welfare reform bill.
01:03There's no prospect of delivering it.
01:05There's no prospect now of delivering meaningful welfare reform in this parliament.
01:09They just haven't got the votes.
01:10And actually, you've got a committee and report stage now coming up of a bill
01:14where you presumably have some sort of amendment,
01:16some description come forward from backbenches,
01:19and I think will set a further direction of travel
01:21that just goes completely in the opposite.
01:23You cannot take people where they don't want to go.
01:25I don't know what Alice is, but I can see there are different dynamics at work.
01:27Suddenly, Labour MPs are looking at the fact that they're going to lose their seats.
01:31That adds another dynamic to the matter, and I think, you know what?
01:35That can change people's principles very quickly.
01:38Well, I think if we're going to change the dynamic,
01:40I think we're going to see a reshuffle, is my prediction,
01:42and I think Morgan McSweeney's job is in peril.
01:45I think Rachel Reeves is definitely in danger, and possibly Liz Kendall as well.
01:48And then maybe there's a chance to change the dynamic before autumn.
01:52But yeah, I mean, absolutely right.
01:53This isn't a victory.
01:54This is like they've castrated their own bill.
01:56And what this actually reminds me of, and Tom, you'll remember this,
01:58is when Liz Truss tried to make the fracking bill a sort of confidence motion.
02:02There were these chaotic scenes in the lobbies, whips in tears,
02:05and then eventually she had to pull the whole thing,
02:07and then she quit a few days later.
02:08This is what, with that level of chaos, a year into the Labour government.
02:12I agree with that.
02:12And I think, actually, when you track back what will follow on from today,
02:17the seeds of Keir Starmer's demise have been sown in these few days,
02:21because this has eradicated trust with backbenchers.
02:24You've alienated the whip's office.
02:26You've created a huge public fracker with people alarmed about what's being proposed,
02:32causing massive concern, and that's damaged relationships.
02:35Boris Glassman, I read an excellent interview with yourself in The Times of the weekend,
02:39and, you know, a lot of people watching this show will agree with your vision
02:44of what the Labour Party at least once was,
02:46and that is a party that represented the working classes,
02:49supported them in their darkest hours,
02:51but didn't enable them to sit on their backsides and fester and rot
02:55and drain away from the country.
02:57That's what's just been voted for by your Labour Party.
03:00Let's be brutally honest.
03:01That vote there won't even scratch the surface of the financial and the moral duty
03:08to get people out of this cancerous idea of sitting around and getting handed out.
03:13This has gone the opposite way of your vision for your party.
03:17Yeah, and it's also a complete failure of strategic planning.
03:23I mean, but as I say, this welfare reform was, what was it, 2% of a future increase?
03:29Yes. So, in a way, what's going to happen now is there's going to be, Martin,
03:34I can assure you, a genuine political argument within the party now.
03:38So, for example, I don't think Morgan McSweeney is under threat at all.
03:42I think I would abolish the Treasury.
03:44You know, I'd just get rid of the Treasury because it's...
03:47A lot of ministers are like that.
03:48No, because it's an impediment to industrial growth.
03:51It's full of Osbornomics, it's full of your stuff,
03:55of useless neoclassical economists who don't understand the first thing about industry.
04:00I mean, and how to produce things.
04:02We've lost it.
04:03We've got to look at the tragedy of the last 50 years.
04:06You know, first as farce and then as tragedy.
04:08I mean, Margaret Thatcher decimated our industrial production.
04:12She destroyed our shipbuilding.
04:14She destroyed mining.
04:15She destroyed a very industrial base.
04:18And everything's been coped.
04:19This whole welfare explosion is to deal with the lack of work.
04:23So, when I'm talking about my vision for the party,
04:26on the back of the defence spending, which we have committed to,
04:30and it's going to be 4% by the end of the Parliament at least,
04:33that's the basis of an industrial strategy.
04:35That industrial strategy is fundamental to the direction.
04:39So, don't imagine, Martin, or any of you, that this argument is over.
04:43It's only just begun.
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