In a rapidly intensifying conflict, Iran has escalated its missile strikes, severely pressuring Israel’s already depleting air defense systems. With the Iron Dome under relentless strain, reports indicate Washington and Tel Aviv are now weighing direct attacks on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility and even supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s inner circle — a move that could cross red lines and ignite all-out war 🚨🔥.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are in close coordination, signaling a deepening geopolitical realignment against Western militarism. Alexander Mercouris provides crucial analysis as regional tensions reach a boiling point, with the threat of global confrontation hanging in the balance.
#AlexanderMercouris #ForbiddenNews #IranStrikes #IsraelAirDefense #IronDomeDepleted #FordowFacility #KhameneiTargeted #MiddleEastWar #USIsraelIran #PutinXi #GlobalAlliance #GeopoliticalCrisis #WW3Risk #NuclearFacility #BreakingNews #MilitaryTensions #RetaliationBuilds #AxisOfPower #DefenseCollapse #StayInformed #UnfilteredNews
Meanwhile, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping are in close coordination, signaling a deepening geopolitical realignment against Western militarism. Alexander Mercouris provides crucial analysis as regional tensions reach a boiling point, with the threat of global confrontation hanging in the balance.
#AlexanderMercouris #ForbiddenNews #IranStrikes #IsraelAirDefense #IronDomeDepleted #FordowFacility #KhameneiTargeted #MiddleEastWar #USIsraelIran #PutinXi #GlobalAlliance #GeopoliticalCrisis #WW3Risk #NuclearFacility #BreakingNews #MilitaryTensions #RetaliationBuilds #AxisOfPower #DefenseCollapse #StayInformed #UnfilteredNews
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00good day today is thursday 19th june 2025 and today we can say that the two conflicts
00:00:07that are raging in the world the one in ukraine between russia and ukraine or to be more precise
00:00:16between russia and the collective west and the other the one in the middle east between israel
00:00:24and iran those continue to rage there are many other conflicts going on in the world as well
00:00:31there continues to be a conflict in sudan for example which has continued for a very long time
00:00:39and which has undoubtedly almost certainly killed far more people than these two conflicts that i
00:00:48have been talking about there is also the continuing crisis if that's the right word in gaza others of
00:00:55course use much stronger words than i do or i'm able to do that too continues but in my opinion
00:01:07it's these two first conflicts the one in ukraine and the one between israel and iran that are shaping
00:01:15the international situation now let's talk first of all about the situation between israel and iran
00:01:21and i'm going to say straight away that it's become increasingly clear to me over the last 24 hours that
00:01:28neither side is telling the full truth both about the losses it is suffering and about the various
00:01:37achievements achievements that each of them claim now one thing that has been happening is that over the
00:01:46course of the last couple of days both countries both israel and iran have been steadily tightening
00:01:55their control of information so in israel has imposed increasingly stringent censorship laws and iran
00:02:04um undoubtedly bruised by the way in which some um groups operating within iran and controlled quite
00:02:16clearly by the israeli intelligence agencies have been using the um internet to coordinate their activities
00:02:24is iran is now starting to take steps to restrict internet use um this was confirmed yesterday
00:02:34in statements by iranian officials and it was published these officials were published in the guardian and
00:02:43i noticed a few hours later and this is absolutely the pattern now that um the israelis then trying to
00:02:51claim some credit for the restrictions in iranian internet use and this was then publicized those israeli claims
00:03:02were then publicized by um a by media agencies like zero hedge there is no doubt that it is the iranian
00:03:11authorities themselves who are taking the threat the step to restrict internet use in their own country
00:03:19and what is also happening is that each side is downplaying the effect of the strikes carried out
00:03:28by the other upon their own territory even whilst they overstate the extent and effectiveness of the strikes
00:03:39they are carrying conducting against the other side now i'll give an example i'll start with israel
00:03:48israel continues to make many claims about its success in attacking various iranian facilities across iran
00:03:58it has claimed that it has unrestricted control of iranian airspace including over the capital city tehran
00:04:08i'm increasingly becoming skeptical about these claims um simplicius the thinker who has studied
00:04:16all of the various reports and has looked at all the various um um footage that the israelis have provided
00:04:25of their various attacks has come to the conclusion that despite various claims israeli aircraft have
00:04:35barely crossed into iranian airspace at all in fact he appears to believe that in only one instance
00:04:46can it be said with a reasonable degree of confidence that israeli aircraft have actually crossed
00:04:56into israeli airspace in iranian airspace and conducted an airstrike and that was on a town very close to
00:05:08the um persian gulf just inside in other words um the iranian border
00:05:16all of the other strikes that israel has conducted according to simplicius the thinker have been
00:05:23conducted at long range by uh through missile strikes and any deep penetration of iranian airspace
00:05:38has been entirely carried out by israeli drones apart from that one strike close to the border
00:05:47well all i would say about that is that that might overstate the reality but i don't think
00:05:52it overstates it very far it does suggest that in fact the iran the israelis are much more careful
00:06:01about entering iranian airspace than they're claiming and it looks unlikely that they do control
00:06:08the air the sky above tehran in quite the way that they are suggesting however there is a flip side to
00:06:18this if it is true that iranian air the israeli aircraft are not conducting on any mass scale deep
00:06:28strikes inside iran then it must follow that the various iranian claims to have shot down i believe
00:06:36four f-35 aircraft and to have captured israeli pilots that those cannot be true either the iranians
00:06:46the israelis say that these claims are untrue and if it is indeed the case that israeli aircraft are not
00:06:54flying deep inside iran then that must that the israelis must be telling the truth there now there
00:07:01are things from the other side as well the iranian the israelis are also denying that iranian missile
00:07:14strikes on their country have been effective they're claiming that they expected that in the first days
00:07:21of the conflict they israel would lose up to 5 000 people killed in iranian retaliatory strikes and they
00:07:33say that only around 20 iranian missiles have managed to penetrate and reach civilian urban targets inside
00:07:45israel now the first thing to say about this is that i don't believe that figure of 5 000 people um if
00:07:55the israelis really believed that mass iranian missile strikes on their country could inflict that level of
00:08:07casualties i think it is inconceivable that they would not have ordered an evacuation of people from their
00:08:14cities before they initiated a military campaign against iran and of course they did no such thing
00:08:24nor did they try to do any such thing in the hours after the initial strikes against iran took place
00:08:33on the contrary as i very well remember on the first day they were confidently confidently telling
00:08:40everybody that the uh the strike the initial strike had been so effective that it was almost inconceivable
00:08:48that iran would be able to launch missile strikes against israel over the course of the next few hours
00:08:57and were that to happen it would be a worst case scenario so it seems to me that current
00:09:05israeli claims contradict their earlier assertions and can be confidently disregarded now further
00:09:17on the question of 20 missiles hitting targets within israeli cities i'm gonna say straight away that i
00:09:26don't know how many um iranian missiles have hit targets inside israeli cities
00:09:34my sense is that it is significantly more than just 20 but as i said i don't keep an exact count and i
00:09:41don't think anybody can actually apart from the israeli authorities themselves but what i will say is
00:09:47this if one goes to the original reports that the israelis have made where they have made that specific
00:09:55claim it's clear that they are talking about strikes on cities on urban centers and of course
00:10:06the iranians claim that most of their strikes against israel have been against military targets so
00:10:14probably this claim is untrue i suspect more missiles have hit urban centers in israel than just 20
00:10:28um but i suspect going beyond that it's probably the case that significantly more iranian missiles
00:10:38have been hitting israel certainly than the israelis want to admit to but as the iranians doubtless claim
00:10:49no i do in fact claim most of the targets have been military targets anyway and i don't get the
00:10:57impression that iran has been specifically and intentionally targeting civilians we will come to
00:11:05that shortly in light of the um strike on hospital that has taken place today so that those are my those are
00:11:13my impressions both sides are overstating the effect of their respective strikes on the other the israelis
00:11:22for example claim to have done significant damage to the iranian facility at natanz the iranians deny that
00:11:33i suspect that on this the iranians are telling the truth the iranians claim that they have inflicted
00:11:40immense damage on israel's military and intelligence complex i think they inflicted a certain amount of
00:11:50damage but not on the scale that the iranians themselves claim this is a war it is a war between
00:11:58israel and iran it is entirely predictable that each side would downplay its own losses and exaggerate
00:12:07those of the other and we need to accept and understand that and we should not rush to conclusions
00:12:15and based on claims that either side makes and assume that those claims are necessarily true
00:12:25i would add one thing i get the sense that the israelis have been deeply embarrassed by the obvious
00:12:35failures failures of their air defense system i've spoken about this at length about the fact that the
00:12:43arrow and david sling and iron dome have not had the extent the degree of effectiveness that some have
00:12:56claimed well there's been others who are now saying the same thing alistair crook british diplomat
00:13:04somebody who's much more familiar with the internal conversations within israel than i am he's been
00:13:10saying this perhaps even more pertinently so has professor postal of the massachusetts institute of
00:13:18technology he has been actually much more critical over the effectiveness or lack of it of the israeli air
00:13:27defense system than i have been it seems to me that some of the censorship restrictions we see being
00:13:35applied in israel and some of the stories that have been circulated like the one about only 20 missiles
00:13:43iranian missiles getting through and about how israel anticipated 5 000 people killed in the first days and the
00:13:54number has been obviously far short of that that all of these are intended to somehow restore the reputation
00:14:03of the israeli air defense system amid all of this cloud of misinformation and propaganda and secrecy and mystery
00:14:16um i think that there are only two facts which we can rely upon with some confidence the as a facts two
00:14:30reports that we can rely upon with some confidence both come from the american media and both i suspect
00:14:39are sourced from the u.s government ultimately one was in the war street journal the other is in the washington post
00:14:48each of these reports say that israel is indeed running short of air defense missiles
00:14:56and the one in the washington post spoke about israel running
00:15:05depleting exhausting its inventory of air defense missiles within roughly 12 days now one must be always
00:15:15extremely careful of what is known as confirmation confirmation bias the assumption that because one
00:15:22believes something uh claims made by third parties that appear to confirm one's beliefs are true
00:15:34i have always suspected or believed if you prefer that in a long duration conflict
00:15:46iran would have the advantage because it is able to produce more missiles to launch at israel than israel
00:15:56which is with its much smaller industrial base could produce air defense interceptors to intercept them
00:16:05but in spite of being aware of that confirmation bias i still am of the view that these american
00:16:14reports are probably true as i said they are consistent with what we know about the scale of the israeli
00:16:22in military industrial complex about the difficulties the united states and the european powers have been
00:16:31having in manufacturing air defense missiles and it seems logical to me especially given that
00:16:43israel has already had to use up a significant number of its air defense interceptors in over the course of air
00:16:54and missile attacks on israel over the course of 2024 by iran by hezbollah by hamas that israeli inventories
00:17:06of these missiles are now starting to run severely short so there is probably a finite point beyond which israel itself
00:17:21cannot continue to conduct this operation the iranians are talking about the need that the fact that they're
00:17:28willing to agree to agree to in a general cessation of hostilities and israel itself because of the shortage of missiles
00:17:40air defense missiles always assuming that the iranians are able to maintain the current level of missile strikes
00:17:53effects on israel um the israelis may be coming towards the end point of how long they can sustain this long
00:18:06range missile campaign i would add that the air campaign against iran that israel is conducting
00:18:19can also have only a finite length or time period that the stress on the pilots on the aircraft the
00:18:22f-35 aircraft must be intense and of course israel probably also has only a limited stockpile
00:18:42of long-range standoff missiles that it can use to launch against iran
00:18:47iran and again i know nothing about the size of that stockpile but it would not surprise me if it
00:18:55too is becoming depleted in other words based on american reports it could be that within two
00:19:04three weeks a month perhaps the israelis find that they've reached the point where they have to stop
00:19:11in which at which point the entire campaign probably comes to a stop as well because i doubt that the
00:19:18iranians would want to continue this campaign if the israelis are no longer doing so that's my assessment
00:19:30of the great general military situation i would add that my own clear impression also is that perhaps
00:19:38because each side is worried about the size of its respective stockpile i do believe that the iranians
00:19:47probably have many more missiles than iran than israel does but probably they don't want to deplete that
00:19:57stockpile too quickly either anyway because both sides are husbanding
00:20:07their stockpile the scale of the attacks that each conducts against the other has sharply diminished
00:20:17from what we saw over the first two days now in the case of the iranians i think that is largely
00:20:26acknowledged in the case of the israelis it is not but i don't get the sense that the israelis
00:20:33are inflicting as much damage on iran as they did in the early days in the early the first two days
00:20:41of the war the iranians incidentally have a further reason to husband their missile stocks which is of
00:20:53course there is the big question mark of potential us entry into the war if the united states enters the war
00:21:05the supreme leader of iran ayatollah khamenei said yesterday that iran will respond and it will attack
00:21:16u.s bases and take action against the united states and many things of that kind and of course in order
00:21:24for iran to be able to do that he would need at the very least a significant stockpile of missiles
00:21:32so anyway that is where i think we are in the conflict the big unresolved unanswered question
00:21:39is what is the united states going to do now here we're getting all sorts of enormously confused
00:21:48and contradictory signals in my last two programs last three programs in fact i took the probability
00:21:57of an american strike against iran not as a probability but as a virtual certainty i still lean very very
00:22:08strongly to the belief that that is indeed going to happen probably this weekend or perhaps even before
00:22:16but it does seem as if some doubts are circular circling or circulating and as if there is uncertainty as to
00:22:33what exactly to do you can see this in the contradictory statements that the president himself is making he
00:22:40talks he's talked about surrender he wants iran to surrender unconditionally he then gives interviews
00:22:50in which he suggests that in fact he's still open to negotiations with iran he then implies that if
00:22:58there are going to be negotiations with iran the negotiations will be fairly short because the only
00:23:05purpose of the negotiations will be for the iranians to agree to whatever terms it is that he is imposing
00:23:15we then had reports yesterday that the president had approved
00:23:21strike options against iran then we got further reports that though he had approved those options
00:23:31and in effect had made the decision to strike at iran he'd actually held back from giving his formal
00:23:38consent then there were other reports that appeared that he'd closely questioned his military advisors
00:23:47as to whether these massive bunker busting bombs carried by the b2 bombers can indeed destroy the iranian
00:23:57enrichment facility at fordor the military apparently assured the president that they could theodore postol
00:24:06by the way appears to believe that they probably can't anyway the president according to the reports
00:24:15came away unconvinced and unsure and doesn't seem to be decided or at least the reports say that he is not
00:24:26decided as to whether to give the green light for the attacks or not meanwhile apparently
00:24:35in geneva possibly tomorrow the iranian foreign minister mr araxi is due to meet the foreign ministers
00:24:45of the various european powers the united states however will not be represented at this meeting
00:24:52exactly what this meeting is therefore supposed to achieve it's completely unclear to me there are
00:24:58rumors and there are no more than rumors that the united states and iran continue to be in contact with
00:25:05each other and are exchanging ideas about how to move forward with the resolution of the question
00:25:17of iran's enrichment program there is no suggestion that i've seen that the iranians so far are making
00:25:24any substantive concessions but at least according to these claims there is some kind of dialogue
00:25:31underway and well all of this all of these rumors are taking place there's rumors of dissension within the
00:25:40trump administration the opinion polls as i discussed yesterday show sharp indeed intensifying growing
00:25:49opposition within donald trump's political base to the idea of the united states joining in the conflict
00:26:00and interestingly over the last couple of hours the president has not been publishing anything on truth
00:26:09social about the war maybe he has finally taken to heart the advice he's been getting from all sorts of
00:26:18people myself included by the way not that i expect that he pays any attention to what i'm saying or even knows
00:26:25about it but anyway um the advice that many people are giving that all of this this cascade of true social
00:26:34posts is deeply unhelpful and has made the situation much worse so you can build your hopes on all of this
00:26:47this if you choose i am not going to do so i think that it is probably already too late
00:26:59to turn back maybe the president is having doubts but with all of the military forces being deployed
00:27:09with the media and the neocons all primed with all with the israelis saying that they expect the strike to
00:27:20take place at some point within the next couple of days i think it is going to be extremely difficult
00:27:28for the president to reverse course at this time i think it would be wise
00:27:34wise and proper for him to do so i think that there would be political costs for him if he did not
00:27:45the wider greater political costs of pressing ahead are vastly greater
00:27:54but i still expect overall and by and large that the strike against iran by the united states will take
00:28:05place now there are a number of things i do want to say and some of these relate to the attack on the
00:28:14uranium enrichment facility in fordall um i am absolutely bewildered
00:28:21by some of the things i have been reading over the last 24 hours i've been reading detailed
00:28:29discussions in the american media about how an attack on fordall with b2 bombers and their massive bunker
00:28:40busting bombs would be carried out and the risks that the bombers might run if they did conduct such an
00:28:50attack i mean it seems to me that someone is going out of their way to reveal to the iranians the entire
00:29:01battle plan for the attack on fordall and i'm also reading in the media about how the israelis
00:29:13are saying to themselves that if there isn't going to be this bombing raid on fordall if donald trump calls
00:29:21the whole thing off um then maybe the right thing for the israelis to do would be to launch a commander
00:29:29raid on fordall a gigantic facility by the way and one which one presumes is well guarded
00:29:38and it is at a remote site in central iran anyway um that the israelis are conduct considering conducting
00:29:47a commando raid to destroy this facility i i just do wonder whether any of this makes sense
00:29:56whether it could possibly be true who in their senses plans a secret attack on a massive enrichment
00:30:08facility either with bombers or with commandos and gives away the plans for the whole thing
00:30:21days in advance by speculating about it in the media surely these kind of operations are covered with a deep
00:30:33cloak of secrecy what is going on could it be that the attack on fordall is really just a giant distraction
00:30:45that the iranians are having their attention drawn to fordall because the real strike the american strike if it
00:30:55comes will not be on fordall at all but at some entirely different target in iran somewhere else
00:31:05and could it be that that target is once again the iranian leadership i've said in many programs that
00:31:17it seemed to me that the real purpose the real objective of this whole operation was not to stop
00:31:22the uranian iranian enrichment program i'm not saying that the united states is unconcerned about this
00:31:30enrichment program but i cannot believe despite the president's claim that iran was only a few weeks
00:31:36from developing a nuclear weapon that either the president or any other senior u.s official truly
00:31:44believes that putting aside the fact that u.s intelligence community has been advising something
00:31:52entirely entirely different that iran could be as many as three years ahead away from developing a bomb
00:32:03and that only if iran were to single-mindedly sit decide to pursue the objective of acquiring such a bomb
00:32:15um put that aside there's also been repeated advice given from the international atomic energy agency
00:32:27whose officials have been inspecting the various iranian nuclear sites including the one in fordall
00:32:37um mr grassy the head of the iaea has actually spoken in rather vivid terms of his own visits to fordall
00:32:47of how he's had to take um um gone down deep deep tunnels deep inside the mountain to be able to inspect
00:32:57the facility and the iaea is absolutely categorically saying that they have seen no evidence that iran
00:33:06is moving to develop a bomb or is anywhere close to doing so so could it be that as i said this isn't
00:33:16or this isn't all really the plan it isn't the intention to attack fordall at all or if fordall is
00:33:23going to be attacked that is going to be a distraction from the main attack i just would quickly add by the
00:33:31way a point about this which is that if fordall is destroyed if every single iranian nuclear site is
00:33:40destroyed we would simply be back where we were after the jcpoa was signed in 2015 the jcpoa also required
00:33:53iran to give away its nuclear enriched uranium above 3.6 percent and they did so they handed it over to
00:34:02russia and to destroy the vast bulk of its centrifuges which in fact under iaea supervision they actually did
00:34:16and yet after the united states pulled out of the jcpoa in 2018 and despite the difficulties created by the
00:34:28pandemic which started in 2020 and the united states is maximal pressure sanctions the iranians were very
00:34:39very very quickly able to rebuild their entire capability they built new centrifuges to replace
00:34:46the old ones they dug the great caverns in four door and established their facility there and they
00:34:55enriched uranium up to the level of sixty percent and they built up a significant stockpile and they were
00:35:03able to do that in the space of just um seven six to seven years three of which as i said were the pandemic
00:35:15years um more likely than not if fordall is destroyed if natanz and isfahan are also destroyed provided the iranian
00:35:28government is still in place and provided it has still got the political will to pursue a nuclear
00:35:35enrichment program it will be able to resume his nuclear enrichment program and one must assume
00:35:47that it will take even more effective precautions to protect its program than the ones we have seen already
00:35:56and which would have failed if all of the facilities were indeed destroyed which some like theodore postel
00:36:05and perhaps the president thinks is unlikely so anyway maybe as i said the objective is another one and
00:36:13here we come back to my point the point i've made over many many programs that the objective of this operation
00:36:23as by the way the government and prime minister of israel have been making perfectly clear in statement
00:36:33after statement over the last couple of days the real objective is regime change or perhaps not even regime
00:36:42change but rather destruction regime destruction the destruction of the government and political system
00:36:50of the islamic republic the destruction of the entire system of power and authority which exists in iran
00:37:00today without perhaps too much concern about what if anything replaces it and that it seems to me has been
00:37:13clearly the objective that the israelis were following they carried out their various attacks on the
00:37:20iranian iranian military officials they floated the possibility of assassinating the supreme leader of iran
00:37:27ayatollah khamenei and um supposedly the only reason why ayatollah khamenei was not assassinated
00:37:37was because president trump vetoed the idea but that he published a comment on truth social in which he appeared to
00:37:47to threaten the supreme leader with death and sure enough today we're getting more reports about the
00:37:56fact that the israelis are planning to kill the supreme leader of iran now all of these follow a missile
00:38:06strike an iranian missile strike that the israelis say perhaps truthfully has caused significant damage
00:38:15to a hospital in israel now there are some things i absolutely feel i must say about this the first is
00:38:23that any attack on a hospital is absolutely wrong if it is conducted intentionally it is clearly a war crime
00:38:33it is possible that this attack was unintentional i say it is possible i think it is highly likely
00:38:45that it was unintentional it seems to me much more likely that if it was an iranian missile
00:38:53that struck this hospital then that missile went astray and that this was all a tragic a tragic event
00:39:03which was not intended it is also and this must be said to the case that over the operations at gaza
00:39:12as i discussed at length at the time in this on this channel the israelis themselves have conducted
00:39:19attacks against hospitals in gaza they've laid siege to them they've shoved them they've sent armed men
00:39:28into them they've claimed at various times that these hospitals were being used as places of refuge and
00:39:37sanctuary and even as fortified positions by hamas they've claimed that there were long elaborate tunnels
00:39:46and bunkers created under some of these hospitals i've never seen really convincing evidence confirming
00:39:54any of that and i have to say this and um well there were lots of criticisms of what the israelis were
00:40:01doing then and i'm struck by the complete failure to make those comparisons between this attack
00:40:11and the hospital in israel now and to notice that if one thing is unacceptable then the other should also be
00:40:24i'm not going to lay late at this point i'm just going to make it there is also the third possibility
00:40:31um there is at least one film it may have been the film by the way which caused israel to tighten up its census
00:40:41relationship restrictions which appears to show and i want to stress again appears to show because
00:40:47i'm never somewhat able to understand films very well and it could be that i'm misunderstanding it and
00:40:55following incorrect information about it but there is a film which appears to show an iranian israeli air
00:41:05defense missile missing its target presumably an incoming iranian missile and landing on the ground and doing
00:41:18damage following an explosion and it could be and i believe this is what the iranians themselves
00:41:26are claiming that this is how the hospital in israel was hit to my absolutely certain knowledge
00:41:36things like this have happened on several occasions in ukraine and i don't see why they couldn't happen
00:41:46in israel also none of this is to deny that the attack on the hospital is in itself a frightful thing
00:41:57and one very much wishes it didn't happen and of course it is a terrible tragedy
00:42:01tragedy for those who were inside nothing i say about that about what you know the possible way in which
00:42:10this might have happened um detracts from that in any way but without an independent investigation
00:42:22which of course will never take place i doubt that we can ever be completely sure that an actual war crime
00:42:30took place anyway leave that aside the israelis had been very busy making statements after the partial
00:42:41destruction of the hospital hospital they've been talking about how um ayatollah khamenei the corrupt
00:42:51dictator of iran hiding in his bunker is attacking civilians in israel
00:42:58um some people in iran like find comments about attacking civilians in israel rather difficult to swallow given that
00:43:08there have also been plenty of civilians killed in iran probably in fact definitely many more
00:43:15that have been killed that had been killed in israel but again let's not dwell too much on that
00:43:22anyway the israelis have been talking about that and over the last few hours after the israelis
00:43:30worked their some themselves up to this they've been talking about the need to take out as they put it
00:43:39the supreme leader of iran to come and to kill ayatollah khamenei and i wonder whether for the next couple
00:43:50of hours that is what we're going to see that that is what this real the strike may be involving the
00:43:56americans is really all about whether perhaps there will be some attack on four door but the the real
00:44:04strike the one where the greatest attention to which the greatest attention is being given is the one
00:44:14which aims to kill ayatollah khamenei and as many other senior officials of the iranian political leadership
00:44:24as israel and perhaps the united states can track down and find now i am going to say
00:44:33something here which again i don't say with huge degrees of confidence because i as i have already
00:44:42said i'm not familiar with the internal structures in iran very well but i do think that there is at least
00:44:52a possibility that the americans and the israelis might be over emphasizing the importance of khamenei
00:45:05as a person in holding together the structure the political structures in iran together obviously he is
00:45:14an extremely important person he has been iran's supreme leader ever since the late 1980s he has been
00:45:23a permanent fixture of the iranian political scene since before then he is clearly the key decision maker
00:45:31in iran but even if he is the principal or leading authority in the country he is not the only one
00:45:43he does not occupy a position in iran analogous to that of say saddam hussein in iraq or muammar qaddafi in libya
00:45:54or bashar al-assad in syria when those three individuals
00:46:01fled fled or were killed the entire political structure of the country collapsed around them because
00:46:12the entire political structure of the country iraq libya and syria was corrupt constructed either around
00:46:23these individuals or in the case of assad his immediate party and family i don't think the
00:46:33same is true in iran at least not to anything like the same degree iran is a very very different country
00:46:40for syria libya and iraq syria libya and iraq had no history of states prior to the 1920s they are very
00:46:52very very recent state constructions um they were largely into the creation of the european colonial
00:47:05powers who drew the lines on the maps the famous sykes-pico agreement between britain and france
00:47:12for example made during the first world war the italian conquest of libya and all that they are not
00:47:22countries which remotely come close to the storied history and antiquity you see in the case of iran
00:47:36which has a history a continuous history extending back to perhaps 700 bc so we are not talking about
00:47:50like state systems and of course the structures also seem to need to be completely different because iran
00:47:59has a political system of bewildering complexity it's made up of many overlapping layers of authority
00:48:13there are the people who come from within the religious establishment which um ayatollah khamenei heads
00:48:23there is the civilian structures connected with the presidency currently had headed by president pezishkan
00:48:31there is the parliament the majlis which is a long history in iran and which it exists separately
00:48:41there are the various state institutions the army the irgc others as well this is a very very complex
00:48:50system and it is a system where there is constant argument and dispute and controversy carried out
00:48:58pretty much in the open um newspapers take entirely different discordant views there are quarrels about
00:49:08economic policy about foreign policy there are different people with many different perspectives about
00:49:15all of these things and as i said there are also very highly developed institutions um some of which don't
00:49:22dovetail with each other very easily or comfortably or very well but which all of which exist and as i said
00:49:30they exist in all sorts of strange ways all knitted together and forming in their totality a very complex web
00:49:43of institutions that amount to the iranian political system now khamenei is clearly an important figure
00:49:55within this but i doubt that he is irreplaceable i think that as soon as he is killed there will be
00:50:02someone to replace him just as as soon as hassan nazrallah was killed the leader of hezbollah hezbollah found
00:50:12a replacement for him and when the replace the successor to hat nazrallah was also killed
00:50:20the iranians the hezbollah quickly found a successor as well and in iran in the case of iran i suspect that this will be
00:50:31done even more smoothly and it could even be that the death of khamenei
00:50:43a old and apparently not very well meant that he is could ultimately lead to iran gaining a leadership that is younger
00:50:55and more familiar with the realities of the modern world and perhaps more effective in meeting the challenge
00:51:06that iran is currently facing and that also the assassination for the iranians of their supreme
00:51:16leader who is also their religious leader far from dismaying them is more likely to make them angry
00:51:24and to consolidate and combine more closely together with each other i have to say that just as i
00:51:33think that there is at least a possibility that destroying four door will simply mean that iran is able to
00:51:43reconstitute its enrichment capability in perhaps a far shorter time period than the americans and the
00:51:53israelis expect so i think that there is at least a possibility that assassinating
00:52:00um harmony is not going to lead to the collapse of the structure but will simply see the structure
00:52:08reconstitute itself at extreme speed whilst simultaneously regaining or requiring more authority amongst the
00:52:21iranian public than it previously had anyway these are the thoughts i have we're going to have to wait and
00:52:27see what happens over the next couple of days and weeks it remains an incredibly complex situation
00:52:35i believe that there will be an american strike on iran over the next couple of days but until that
00:52:43happens it's important to hold on to one the one remaining probably incontestable fact
00:52:55which is that the americans are now saying that israel is running out of air defense interceptors
00:53:04given that the united states cannot afford a prolonged war against iran given that according to some reports
00:53:14the president of the united states donald trump himself understands that and is worried about the united
00:53:22united states getting involved in the united states getting involved in a prolonged war against iran given that we are
00:53:29indeed looking at a potential attrition war american plans israeli plans attacks on fordor attacks on
00:53:40khamenei important though they doubtless are might not in the end be the most important thing
00:53:50questions of resource and resources and adaptability and sustainability in conditions of attrition
00:54:04may in the end matter more i'm going to say one final thing and it does relate to ayatollah khamenei yesterday
00:54:14he delivered a publicized television a public television address um basically saying that iran was not going to
00:54:22compromise that he was going to hit back at the united states if the united states attacked iran warning
00:54:30the united states not to underestimate iran all of the usual things that you would expect the leader of an embattled
00:54:38country to say but he did say something else he also said that iran had been taken by surprise
00:54:46by the initial israeli attack they assumed that because they were going to meet with the americans on the 15th of june
00:54:55that there would not be an attack before then i will say again that i'm absolutely baffled and incredulous
00:55:06about this given that alex christopher and i reading what was being openly discussed in the western media
00:55:17about israel preparing an attack given that jeffrey sachs and i and jeffrey sachs by the way together with
00:55:28other people was also seeing the fact that an attack was coming i just cannot begin to comprehend how it could
00:55:42be that the iranians were caught by surprise in that kind of way it astonishes me it again appears to show
00:55:53at least to me that there is chaos and disorganization within iran which unfortunately we've seen all too much of
00:56:04of over the course of this conflict but which it does seem is starting to be brought under control
00:56:17anyway let's move on putin and c had their conversation yesterday and apparently it went on
00:56:27for something like an hour and the kremlin has now provided its account of that conversation and it's
00:56:35a fascinating account and the kremlin seems to have given up on readouts seeing the way that trump
00:56:44discusses reader just discusses things on truth social they don't provide readouts anymore instead
00:56:52they get yuri ushakov who was also party to this call to actually um provide a very long summary of
00:57:02this call which you can now find on the kremlin website and it's very interesting and it's very long
00:57:12and um i'm going to read some extracts from it um ushika says the conversation was friendly constructed
00:57:20and was devoted quite logically mainly to discussing the aggravated situation in the middle east both
00:57:28sides adhere to identical approaches and resolutely condemn israel's actions which violate the un charter
00:57:37and other norms of international law both moscow and beijing fundamentally proceed from the fact
00:57:45that the resolution of the current situation and issues related to the iranian nuclear program
00:57:51cannot be resolved by force and this solution must be achieved exclusively by political and diplomatic
00:57:59methods the russian president informed his counterpart about his latest international contacts namely telephone
00:58:07and conversations with key players netanyahu trump and pesis khan to name them in the context of the israeli
00:58:15iranian standoff our leader that was putin confirmed russia's readiness to cast carry out possible
00:58:24mediation efforts if necessary the chinese leaders spoke in favor of this kind of mediation since he believes
00:58:31it could serve to de-escalate the acute situation taking into account this complicated situation both
00:58:40leaders agreed that they would give orders to the relevant departments and services of the two countries
00:58:49to conduct the closest contacts in the coming days and exchange possible information and possible
00:59:00considerations that's all very interesting and it does look as if putin and c agreed an outline plan
00:59:10together about how china and russia should jointly respond to this crisis and it's not just going to be
00:59:21words we're told that the relevant departments and services of the two countries would conduct the closest
00:59:28contact contacts in the coming days and exchange possible information information and possible
00:59:34considerations for the record following putin and erdogan's conversation the day before the russians and
00:59:44the turks appear to have agreed on the same thing now this isn't this does not confirm but neither does it
00:59:53exclude the possibility at some point of positive assistance being provided by china russia and perhaps
01:00:06turkey to iran this could be in the form of weapons it could be in the form of technology it is more likely
01:00:14at this stage of the conflict to be in the form of intelligence assistance of advice on help with tightening up
01:00:23security inside iran with proofing iranian communication systems against the kind of hacking attacks that the israelis
01:00:34now regularly conduct including one which they conducted recently against iran's one of iran's state banks
01:00:43so putin and c china and russia are coordinating and working together now
01:00:56i'm not going to discuss in more detail in this program what they're going to do
01:01:01i would say that the telephone call was not just about iran the situation between israel and iran
01:01:09though as we see ushikov says that the conversation was just devoted mainly to this topic they did also
01:01:21discuss however economic and trade relations the development of the bricks and the situation in
01:01:28central asia where c has just had a meeting with the leaders of the central asian states in astana and where
01:01:36putin is also due to meet the leaders of the central asian states fairly shortly so a lot took place
01:01:46between this meeting but clearly iran and israel are for the moment at the top of the agenda to repeat
01:01:56again again the longer this conflict goes on especially if there is no sign of a diplomatic resolution
01:02:06the more likely it becomes that the eurasian powers china and russia if they see that iran
01:02:15is successfully withstanding the blows that china and russia will start to provide iran with ever
01:02:26greater levels of assistance and that will alter the dynamic of this attrition war we've seen already
01:02:35that the chinese and the russians have been able the russians by themselves basically have been able to
01:02:42exhaust the west in ukraine if china and russia start working together and providing assistance to iran
01:02:53given that iran already has relative to the united states but even more israel
01:03:02a much greater depth of resources the intervention of the eurasians could very easily prove over time to be decisive
01:03:18now shortly before this call putin had a massive meeting with journalists from various news agencies
01:03:32from around the world including by the way western news agencies and he spoke very interestingly
01:03:37about the relationship between russia and iran and what he said incidentally dovetailed very closely
01:03:46with what i heard whilst i was in russia in st petersburg and which i discussed in the live stream that
01:03:55um we did on the duran two days ago with brian baletic and i said that i'd heard from the russians i'm not
01:04:04going to say which person that russia had found iran a rather difficult country to help and putin effectively
01:04:13said the same thing he said that when it when the russians and the iranians were discussing the new
01:04:22partnership treaty the one that they have signed and which if i can just correct a mistaken view that i
01:04:30had it seems both have ratified anyway when they were discussing this treaty the russians proposed that
01:04:38there should actually be a mutual defense black fact in it a provision of essentially the same as the one
01:04:46which exists in the specific in the strategic partnership treaty between russia and north korea
01:04:55it was the iranians who refused the iranians did not want to become an ally of russia they were too
01:05:08concerned about preserving their sovereignty and their independence it seems that the russians also
01:05:17at various times this is according to putin of course the iranians might have their own things to
01:05:23say but so far we only have putin's account anyway according to putin the russians also suggested
01:05:30to the iranians that whilst russia would be prepared to sell ed defense equipment to iran
01:05:43what russia was prepared to do was to work together with iran to establish there an integrated
01:05:53air defense system based on some measure of joint production within iran itself
01:06:04and the iranians again said no they weren't interested they preferred to build up their air
01:06:10defense system by themselves it was again important to them to preserve their own sovereignty
01:06:17and lastly putin also said that so far russia has received no request from iran for assistance over the
01:06:30course of this crisis now i'm afraid all of this shines true ever since the revolution of 1979
01:06:40the iranian government and i suspect this mirrors widespread sentiment in iran has been determined to
01:06:49assert iran's status as a fully sovereign fully independent self-reliant country and there has also been
01:07:02a very long history of suspicion between russia and iran in the 18th century especially there were several
01:07:11russian iranian wars in which russia by the way tended to come out the winner and that has had a long-term
01:07:20effect souring relations between iran and russia in 1907 the russian empire
01:07:29and the british empire and the british empire did a typical colonial era deal with each other in
01:07:38which they effectively partitioned iran between themselves even though iran remained a nominally
01:07:46independent country the russians and the british divided iran into separate spheres of influence
01:07:54then in the second world war in 1941 in an event that is almost unknown today the soviet union and britain
01:08:05cooperated with each other in an invasion of iran in order to prevent iran from slipping into an alliance with germany
01:08:16the result being that the soviets advanced on tehran from the north and the british advanced into iran
01:08:25from the south causing the collapse of the iranian state and of the iranian army and leading to the
01:08:32soviet occupation of tehran which then became the venue for the tehran conference between churchill
01:08:41roosevelt and stalin in 1943 just saying and then after the end of the second world war the soviet union
01:08:51continued for a time to operate a significant area in northern iran in azerbaijan with some suggestions
01:09:00that the soviets that the soviets were looking to annex the territory and to unite it with the soviet
01:09:08republic of azerbaijan north of the border so all of this is well remembered in iran itself
01:09:17and it has massively complicated the improvement of relations between russia and iran it's also the case
01:09:24that of course the republic that was established in iran in 1979 was an islamic republic and the leadership
01:09:36the islamic leadership of iran was deeply hostile to the atheistic government that was at that time
01:09:45governing russia so there's been this long history of difficult relations and that together with this
01:09:55desire by iran to continue to assert its independence has clearly complicated the development of the
01:10:03relationship between these two countries between iran and russia well i am going to suggest that iran needs
01:10:12to put all that to us to one side now as is or ought to be obvious the threat to iran today is not from
01:10:20russia it is from israel and the united states the russians and the chinese most definitely are in a
01:10:29position to provide iran with significant help iran was extremely unwise in my opinion to reject a russian
01:10:38offer for an outright military alliance that would have completely changed the calculus ahead of this
01:10:46crisis and the iranians were certainly mistaken to refuse russian offers of assistance to iran
01:10:57to set up an air defense system which would have again changed the entire strategic calculus
01:11:04if it was in existence today um assuming that iran gets through this crisis it needs to revisit all of
01:11:18these questions i am going to suggest that this these russian offers which are offers which will undoubtedly
01:11:27be backed by china provide far more secure long-term security for iran than enrichment programs
01:11:42to the level of 16 for uranium which never get converted in the end into an actual working nuclear device
01:11:52anyway that's all i'm going to say about this putin over the course of the same interview had a great
01:11:58deal to say about the situation in ukraine and he was asked about this a lot and he talked about it a lot
01:12:05he said that the situation um of the ukrainians is very poor he said and i'm no reason to doubt that
01:12:15what what he says is true because it correlates closely with what the ukrainians themselves are saying
01:12:22that um the ukrainian armed forces are now at 40 47 strength and that the frontline units are
01:12:34are even weaker he also again revisited the long tangled history of negotiations to end the conflict
01:12:48and he made very clear his intense bitterness about the way in which the negotiations ended and about
01:12:55what he sees as the duplicity of western leaders including angela merkel especially he rejected any
01:13:05idea that the european states could act as mediators of the conflict in ukraine he also gave a fascinating
01:13:14account of a conversation he had shortly before the start of the war with president biden he said
01:13:21he's claimed that he's claimed that he made proposals to avert the war to president biden he didn't provide
01:13:30great details as to what they were but he did say that he did make proposals and he gave the impression
01:13:37that biden proved completely unresponsive and that this was a major factor in bringing the war about
01:13:47he also um spoke about a offer that the russians made in the early autumn of 2022 which is that the russians pull back
01:14:04to donbass that zaporozha and her son's region be returned to ukraine but that the russians be granted
01:14:18a right of passage a kind of secure corridor from their territory to crimea so across land across ukrainian
01:14:30territory so that they would not be solely reliant upon the crimean bridge which the ukrainians were
01:14:37repeatedly trying to destroy putin appears to have had something in mind similar to the arrangements
01:14:46that were agreed during the cold war with berlin um the allies of course remained in control of west berlin
01:14:56and west berlin eventually fell under the jurisdiction of the west german government
01:15:04but west berlin remained an island in east german territory but the western powers and the west germans
01:15:16were provided with a motorway and rail corridor from west german territory to west berlin that they
01:15:28could use without having to go through any kind of customs or security checks putin seems to have
01:15:35had something similar in mind linking together russia and crimea he says that the ukrainians rejected it
01:15:43outright that when the western official and he was careful not to name the western official
01:15:51to whom the russians made this proposal when he passed it on to the ukrainians the ukrainians
01:15:58indignantly accused this person of being an agent of the kremlin anyway um putin made it very clear that in
01:16:08light of all of this the russians now consider the four regions to be russian territory and that they are
01:16:16not prepared to give up on that territory or to compromise on any of these issues in fact
01:16:26reading all of putin's comments i got the sense that he was not prepared to make
01:16:31any compromises at all he did say that if the ukrainians insisted that he meet with zelensky and appointed
01:16:43zelensky his chief negotiator that he had no objection to doing so in principle though he regarded such a meeting
01:16:51at this time as premature he would expect some further progress to be made in the negotiations
01:17:01before such a meeting took place but he also again said that zelensky is an illegitimate president of
01:17:09ukraine that he is in office well beyond his legal term and that he therefore has no authority
01:17:21to sign any final settlement agreement with russia and that as far as the russians are concerned
01:17:31before such a settlement can be agreed the question of zelensky status the question of the status of the
01:17:42signatory must be resolved now reading all of that i have to say i came away with a clear view
01:17:53that putin does not believe that there is going to be any kind of negotiated outcome to the conflict in
01:17:59ukraine um he clearly expects that the conflict in ukraine is going to be settled through military means
01:18:09i i cannot imagine that he honestly thinks that the negotiation process is going to provide a
01:18:18resolution a solution which will satisfy the russians and which the ukrainians themselves will accept he did
01:18:28say that the russians have proposed a further meeting with the ukrainians after the 22nd of june
01:18:36and he did suggest that the ukrainians have indicated that they will indeed go to that meeting
01:18:45but i would say that if so that flatly contradicts statements made by zelensky and other ukrainian
01:18:54officials which suggest that they no longer have any interest in the istanbul process and are no longer
01:19:02prepared to engage in negotiations within its format so i don't think that there's going to be any
01:19:11negotiations to end the conflict in ukraine and i think that is putin's own belief i believe he now
01:19:21expects a military outcome and i think that he is confident that that military outcome
01:19:29in other words a russian victory is within sight he talked at length about the fact that the taurus
01:19:36missiles would not be able to change the military situation in any way on the conflict line because
01:19:43however sophisticated and powerful these weapons are they cannot redress the fact that the ukrainian army
01:19:52is at only 47 strength and that the initial units on the combat lines are weaker still so
01:20:03it seems to me that putin thinks that the russian army is going to win this war and probably win it within
01:20:12the next few months year at most he does not feel under any great pressure to negotiate now i am
01:20:22not going to discuss the military situation on the ukrainian battlefields in this program i would say that
01:20:28it fully coordinates with a corresponds with putin's apparent beliefs i will say something at this particular
01:20:38moment in time russia is hosting the st petersburg international economic forum in st petersburg it's
01:20:49going to be held in the same conference hall by the way uh conference center as the legal forum i attended
01:20:57about four three three or four weeks ago um one of the interesting things is that a public argument
01:21:09is currently underway about russia's economic policies between top russian officials elvira nabulina and the
01:21:22central bank uh recently shaved one percent off the interest rates which had risen to 21 percent the
01:21:33economy minister maxim roshetnikov says this is nowhere near enough he complains that the russian economy
01:21:41because of the interest rates being too high and monetary conditions being too tight is as he claims on
01:21:48the brink of recession now i have to say he may be right but that is contradicted by the latest pmi data
01:21:59both of which on the contrary point to renewed expansion just saying but anyway that is what russianikov
01:22:06said and he called on the central bank to lower interest rates um the industry ministry is saying that
01:22:16inflation the true rate of inflation now in russia the actual rate of price growth is closer to is is
01:22:26around five percent that ten percent and all of those other figures are historic that there's been a marked
01:22:36decline in price increase the rate of price increase over the course of the last few months
01:22:45and by extension the time is therefore ripe for monetary policy to be eased and the uh head of rostec
01:22:58the russian industrial conglomerate which brings together by the way the um russian military industrial
01:23:05complex has been was complaining to putin yesterday that because of the high interest rates certain projects that
01:23:13rostec has would be frozen the finance minister anton siluanov has also weighed in he said that the cooling of the economy
01:23:26was a planned measure by the central bank to reduce inflation but after a period of coolness a period of warmth
01:23:38comes after the winter comes the spring which of course is a clear signal that the finance ministry also
01:23:47wants to see monetary policy eased it seems to me that there isn't that there is now a campaign to start
01:23:56bringing interest rates down uh the view is that inflation has been basically defeated that inflation is
01:24:06being brought back down to normal levels that the pressure is now on nebulina to start lowering interest
01:24:15rates and i suspect that despite her own very natural and understandable caution that is precisely what
01:24:24she's going to start to do and what we're going to start to see over the course of the summer
01:24:31anyway it's all very interesting because i said with pmi data actually pointing to a
01:24:37further expansion if interest rates are indeed brought down it could be that economic growth will be higher than
01:24:50some people expect the key in that case will be to ensure that that doesn't read lead to another inflation
01:25:01spike like we saw last year i will talk probably more about this in future programs but this is where
01:25:10i finish my program today let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various
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