As missile exchanges and air strikes intensify between Iran and Israel, the real question emerges: Who holds the upper hand in aerial warfare? 🛩️💥 In this explosive Deep Dive, MIT professor and missile defense expert Ted Postol joins Lt. Col. Daniel Davis to analyze the true capabilities of both nations’ air defense and strike systems — separating fact from propaganda 🛰️📡.
From Iron Dome vulnerabilities to Iran’s growing missile tech and potential U.S. involvement, this episode reveals how air superiority could decide the future of the conflict — and reshape global power dynamics 🌍⚠️.
#IranIsraelConflict #AirDefenseWar #TedPostol #DanielDavis #ForbiddenNews #DeepDive #MissileDefense #IronDome #MilitaryAnalysis #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #MiddleEastTensions #SkyControl #USInvolvement #AerialWarfare #GlobalCrisis #UncensoredTruth #WarUpdate #DefenseTechnology #StayInformed #RealAnalysis
From Iron Dome vulnerabilities to Iran’s growing missile tech and potential U.S. involvement, this episode reveals how air superiority could decide the future of the conflict — and reshape global power dynamics 🌍⚠️.
#IranIsraelConflict #AirDefenseWar #TedPostol #DanielDavis #ForbiddenNews #DeepDive #MissileDefense #IronDome #MilitaryAnalysis #Geopolitics #BreakingNews #MiddleEastTensions #SkyControl #USInvolvement #AerialWarfare #GlobalCrisis #UncensoredTruth #WarUpdate #DefenseTechnology #StayInformed #RealAnalysis
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NewsTranscript
00:00While the United States is on a knife's edge about possibly getting into the Iran-Israeli war, everyone's looking to see what is the Israeli Iron Dome, the Israeli air defense system.
00:12How good is it? How much is it protecting Israel right now?
00:16How good could it protect American troops in the event that we get into this war and we have to fight also?
00:23President Trump yesterday said that the U.S. definitely can protect itself.
00:27There's no problem. We are definitely protected in the Middle East.
00:30So if we get into a war, we'll be able to take care of ourselves.
00:33But is that right? Was Netanyahu right in what he thought that they could get accomplished with air power?
00:40And is President Trump right that we could defend ourselves against Iranian ballistic missiles?
00:45Now, as you certainly may recall, if you've been watching our show for any amount of time, there were two rounds of fighting between Iran and Israel in 2024.
00:53We covered both of them and we brought our absolute best subject matter expert on the issue of missiles and air defense, MIT professor Ted Postol, on to talk about it.
01:02He gave us an incredible assessment then.
01:04And so far, everything he told us last year is playing out in real time right now.
01:09So we thought we'd go right back to him to find out, get an assessment of what we've seen so far in this first six days of this new war and what we might see later on if it expands.
01:19Professor, welcome back to the show. It's always great to have you here.
01:22Well, thanks for having me on again, although I'm not sure it's for its circumstances that have called for it are not great.
01:33Yeah, yeah, of course. I mean, that's one of the pros, cons or whatever of having a show like this.
01:38You get great people on and you love to have them on, but it seems like oftentimes because of their expertise, it's like, well, I wish it wasn't for this reason.
01:45I don't know. Maybe we'll have you on one day and we'll both drink a beer or something and just talk about.
01:50Right. Well, you know, this reminds me of, you know, I come from New York City and so I, you know, this very big black humor is a big part of that culture.
02:02And I used to joke with my colleagues in the Pentagon.
02:07I'd say the Cold War has been very, very good to me.
02:12But of course, it was a bad joke.
02:16It was. But I don't know. Somehow it works.
02:20But well, listen, let's just get right into this thing here, because, you know, I went back and actually looked at some of the tapes of some of our previous shows when this new version of the war broke out here.
02:33And I'm like, wow, he was really pressing it back then, meaning you were just technically accurate in what you described about the capabilities and limitations of the system.
02:40So just let me ask, just kind of you're off the cuff, even before we get into the details of your presentation here.
02:46What is your overall assessment of how the integrated air defense system for Israel has performed up to this point?
02:53Well, it's performed poorly.
02:56It's it's probably, you know, five percent.
03:02There are intercepts.
03:03In fact, I put together a videotape where I show where an intercept actually occurred and, you know, for your audience to see things.
03:13And and I think what what's going on, I've been thinking about this a bit and reliving the work I did with a colleague of mine on the Gulf War of 1991,
03:24where we found that the patriots failed to intercept anything at that time when we started.
03:31The wisdom was that the patriot had had had a something like a 96 percent intercept rate.
03:39In fact, George H.W. Bush made this claim right here in Massachusetts where, you know, at Raytheon.
03:47OK, there went one.
03:50There goes the second up here.
03:51Kurt, follow it all the way.
03:54Follow it all the way.
03:54There's an explosion.
03:56Oh, there's an intercept.
03:58There's another intercept.
04:01Two intercept.
04:03There's something falling very near.
04:07Oh, well, that captures that captures the situation.
04:12That's a video I sent you guys from 1991.
04:18So it's 35 years ago.
04:19And what really happened in the Gulf War of 91 is what's happening again.
04:27And unfortunately, we have a press corps that doesn't seem to have any memory of any kind.
04:34You know, 35 years is a long time.
04:35But you'd think that somebody would be looking back and trying to understand what they're looking at.
04:42But basically, what's going on is people are looking at the sky and they're seeing explosions in the sky because the interceptors have warheads on them.
04:55And so the interceptors fly up and they explode.
05:01And, you know, without analyzing what you're seeing, you know, there has to be a target there.
05:07And in fact, targets can be sometimes difficult to see because sometimes they're bright and luminous as they come into the atmosphere.
05:19And sometimes because of the orientation of the camera relative to the incoming missile or warhead, it can be hard to actually see the luminous trail.
05:33But what you're seeing in the video.
05:35That's what we're seeing right now.
05:37You're seeing missiles falling.
05:40And there are no intercepts in this particular shot right here.
05:43Am I right?
05:44Nothing at all.
05:45Nothing at all.
05:45Gary, if you can put up the video I sent you first of the two videos I sent you, we can just take a quick look at that.
05:56And here is a real time version of the video that I just sent Gary showing an engagement in Tel Aviv.
06:13And the video will go to a very slow motion now so you can see it.
06:19And there you see what actually looks like it's probably an intercept.
06:24It's probably the explosion of a warhead and an incoming missile.
06:28It's brighter and it lasts much longer than the other bright spots you're seeing, which are just detonations of interceptors that didn't hit anything.
06:44So now what you're seeing is the actual explosions from two missiles that were not intercepted.
06:58And that second one there, correct me if I'm wrong, but that looks like it's very near the launch site of the interceptors.
07:03It's very near the launch site of what is clearly a Patriot defense unit.
07:09And you'll see as the video goes on a delayed launch of an interceptor.
07:14We'll see that shortly.
07:16Yeah, I was actually going to ask you about that.
07:17Yeah.
07:18And the interceptor sort of goes up and we'll see it very shortly.
07:24The intercept rises up.
07:26You see it's slow motion now, but then you'll see it real time and you see it's flattening out its trajectory.
07:32So this is an interceptor that could well have dove to the ground and caused additional damage.
07:38And is it possible in that sequence right there that the missile that came down and blew up in like literally one or so seconds later, that launches off, that that could have been a cook off because of what happened on the ground.
07:51Is that possible?
07:52Anything is possible.
07:54Anything is possible.
07:55These systems are just not working.
07:57You one of the things we saw in the Gulf War of 1991, we would see we had videos, lots of and you'd see an incoming missile and it would hit the ground and explode.
08:15And then you would see a whole bunch of Patriots being launched.
08:18And what was going on there is the missiles were tumbling at high altitude and they would break up and the warhead would break off and go onto the ground and explode.
08:34But the tumbling piece of the missile would be falling at a speed that's comparable to that of an airplane and the Patriots would misidentify them as attacking airplanes and they would launch then.
08:50So we don't know what's going on here, but it could well be a Patriot launching at a piece of falling rocket motor and thinking it's an airplane.
09:03If you recall, we decided not to show a very disturbing video of a rocket motor coming down of a rocket, of literally a rocket stage coming down and hitting a man and killing him on the spot.
09:24And we talked about that before.
09:26Yeah, I do remember that, yeah.
09:27And we decided not to show it.
09:29But what was going on there is that motor had been falling for fractions of a minute.
09:36The warhead had probably come off it and hit the ground and exploded much earlier.
09:41But once it starts tumbling, it slows up to a speed that's quite comparable to that of an airplane.
09:48So the Patriot sees it and it goes out and it tries to destroy it.
09:54And it doesn't really destroy it because the Patriot warhead is big enough to do damage to it.
10:00But it's still going to fall and tumble to pieces of debris, which is one of the reasons why you definitely always want to wear helmets in areas where air defenses are operating.
10:12So, all right.
10:12So you've sent us a presentation here where you can run through some things and kind of show us in a little bit more detail about how this is.
10:19I can simply remind you of some of the things I talked about earlier.
10:23And explain why we are seeing some of the things we're seeing.
10:31Yeah, that one right there is one of the most dramatic.
10:33Those three in a row that just roll in.
10:36Yes.
10:37And again, to make sure I understand what we're seeing here, these are tumbling warheads because you see the trails coming up from the knot interceptions.
10:44These may or may not be.
10:46Sometimes you see this bright brightness and then out of the brightness, the brightness dims and then you see a trail coming out.
10:55That may be a warhead or a piece of debris.
10:57It's hard to know.
10:58I mean, remember, you're only looking at, you know, you don't have real detail.
11:02But when you see these two bright things together and with a dim trail between them, that's a breakup.
11:12That's where something has where the missile has broken up and then another piece of it is falling ahead of it.
11:19But again, to reinforce and this image that we're seeing here, this whole sequence, there are no interceptions even being attempted.
11:24No, no, no, no, no, there's just a bunch of warheads coming in to a localized area.
11:32You know, they're trying to hit the downtown area of Tel Aviv, possibly, or some other area.
11:40And how accurate, as far as you can tell, I mean, you don't know what they chose as aim points, but how accurate do these missiles appear to be to you?
11:48Well, I think we have an estimate of their accuracy.
11:51It's about a one kilometer accuracy.
11:55We'll go through the briefing.
11:56I'll just remind you of what I concluded from data we had from the October events.
12:05But the one kilometer accuracy, as I said in October, is good enough if you want to do general damage to a city.
12:14And so there was a grave mistake, if you want to call it that, done by the Israelis to attack people inside Tehran, because once they did that, they left the door open for a retaliation in kind on the part of the Iranians.
12:40If the Iranians stick to military targets, they are going to do some damage because there will be random hits that actually succeed.
12:50But generally, they're not going to hit a specific target, you know, and destroy it, even though they would like to, because you need, you really need tens of meters of accuracy.
13:04And they have a thousand meters accuracy, or even if you say it's a few 500 meters accuracy, it's not nearly enough precision.
13:14And let's look at the other side of that.
13:16And then I'd like you to go back to your presentation there where you can show about some of these things you're talking about here.
13:21But it appears that the Israeli missiles that have fired into Tehran, especially in the early part of the war, seem to be very accurate to the point to where they hit specific apartment units inside of buildings.
13:36Well, that's a different level of technology.
13:38And it's incidentally, it's not ballistic missiles.
13:40They're drone or cruise type missiles.
13:43And those, they move slow enough that their optical systems can see a target and recognize it early enough to home on it.
13:57And these missiles are extremely sophisticated in terms of their homing and their guidance.
14:03And the Iranians may be close to that capacity now, but it may not be widely available in the Iranian arsenal, because they certainly did that, did similar.
14:17They showed similar capabilities in their attack on the Saudi Arabian oil fields quite a while back.
14:24And so just as an observation here, Gary's showing the Israeli missiles hitting Tehran at the moment.
14:30And again, I don't even see any attempted at intercepts.
14:34So it looks like both skies are pretty much wide open to the other's missiles.
14:37Is that a fair statement?
14:39Yeah, I think that's basically true.
14:42The Israelis are throwing up all kinds of interceptors in some situations, but they're not succeeding at any level.
14:49Got it.
14:49So these air defenses are not very effective.
14:52They're quite effective against drones.
14:55Yeah.
14:56Because the drones fly like airplanes.
14:58In fact, they're easier targets than airplanes because they're slower and they're, you know, they're not hardened and they're not, they don't have a pilot in it who could try to evade.
15:07But, you know, if you're dealing with drones, you can intercept them.
15:15But, of course, you need interceptors.
15:18You need, your air defenses need to be distributed in a way where they're in a position to engage the drones.
15:25You need a lot of them, you know, because the drones fly low or you need to be in a circumstance where you have line of sight to them.
15:32So having defenses may or may not help you depending on how much you have and how well positioned they are relative to the targets you'd like to defend.
15:43And I guess that really comes into, in terms of what this war can do, I guess it's really going to come down to who has the bigger arsenals of attack missiles.
15:52Maybe not even so much.
15:53Who can take more punishment.
15:54Yeah.
15:55Because, and that's just something we don't know.
15:57We don't really know on either side how many, how many offensive missiles Israel has, how many offensive missiles Iran has.
16:04But it seems like that there's, at least right now, after I think we're in the sixth day of this, so far, both sides still have plenty to throw.
16:11Well, the myth of Israeli missile defense capabilities may be evaporating with the population in Israel.
16:20Because when Israel was trying and failing to intercept artillery rockets that were being fired from Gaza, these artillery rockets did not have tremendously large warheads, a few kilograms.
16:38And if it landed near you or went through the roof of your house and exploded and you were in a room, they'd kill you.
16:44But if you have a safe room, like the Israelis mandate by law, a place that's hardened against fragments and blast in your house, and you go into it and your house gets hit, you will almost certainly survive.
17:01You won't even be injured with a very high probability.
17:04If you're outside and you lie on the ground, unless the warhead lands extremely close to you, within a few meters, you're not going to be killed.
17:15So the level of damage and havoc that was caused by these artillery rockets was not high.
17:25And when you lie to your population and you say you're intercepting 90% of them, you know, people, it's possible to deceive some high percentage of your people.
17:39They're not technically well informed about these things.
17:42But with the much higher-yield warheads on the Iranian long-range ballistic missiles, these one-ton warheads, it's a harder fiction to continue to promulgate.
17:56And I'll show you why.
17:58The promulgation of this fiction is much harder to do.
18:03And there are some reports, not yet ubiquitous, but they may get stronger, about some parts of the Israeli population beginning to wonder about how well these Israeli missile defenses are capable, how well they're working.
18:24And I think the reason for that is the level of ground damage that one of these one-ton warheads can do is enormously high.
18:34Not a nuclear weapon, but, you know, you don't want to be in the area where it falls and detonates.
18:40And people, you know, it falls in the middle of Tel Aviv.
18:45And, you know, for a diameter of 250 or 300-meter circular area, you're going to have general damage in a large area.
18:59And I'll show you some photographs of this, but, you know, this is, you know, this is captured well.
19:06By the way, I just want to jump in here real quick.
19:09I'm getting some information, I'll say, that something could be coming, something big could be coming regarding the Iran war coming from one side or another.
19:19They're kind of effusive, but they said something between 2 and 3 p.m. this afternoon could dramatically ramp up the situation here.
19:28At the same time, we also have, let me pull it back up here, sorry, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Israeli interceptors are running low,
19:37which, ironically, as you're saying, may not even matter unless there's a big drone wave coming in.
19:45Then also, and we're going to get to this in a second, the Washington Post is saying that Iran's facilities have been damaged but not destroyed.
19:52And it's unclear whether some of these bunker busters that even alleged to come from the U.S. may be able to get to them.
19:59But anyway, I will explain why those bunker busters are unlikely.
20:04I mean, you could have some success, but you never know.
20:07Even with the interceptors we see, they do intercept some of the missiles, but not many.
20:13The bunker busters are going to have a very low rate of success, no question about it.
20:19And I'll explain why that's the case.
20:21Yeah, yeah, yeah.
20:22Please continue on with the current thing.
20:23Yeah, okay, we'll just go to it right now since we're talking about it.
20:26This is a simulation of what's claimed to be the bunker buster bomb, the GBU-57, which is alleged to be able to go up to 200 feet into the ground,
20:36even through reinforced concrete, before it will then explode.
20:40What you're seeing is a simulation of what's claimed is that because of the surface of the missile itself,
20:46it will be able to burrow deep down inside there and then get into, like it's showing here, some kind of underground facility and then will explode.
20:55That's the claim.
20:56Now tell us the reality.
20:58Well, why don't we go to my slides for the moment and start with slide 16, 1-6, Gary.
21:06This is a photograph of one of these bunker busters.
21:15They weigh about 30,000 pounds.
21:17Most of their weight is steel.
21:22You know, in fact, I think it's about 5,000 or 6,000 pounds of explosives in this 30,000-pound munition.
21:30And you need a lot of steel because you want it to have a lot of weight.
21:36And you also need to protect the explosives inside it so that they don't get pre-detonated, you know,
21:45before the munition penetrates deep enough into the ground.
21:49If we go to slide 18, we'll see a diagram of how this munition is allegedly supposed to work.
22:02I say allegedly.
22:03This is another example of contractors making claims that – or people who are working for contractors
22:18or people who do not understand the details, who are advising higher-level political decision makers.
22:26This is a real problem I've talked about in the past.
22:28You have people who don't know what they're talking about bringing the information up to people who are political decision makers
22:35who may or may not care about the details.
22:39And the result is you get a big disconnect in what they think they're capable of doing relative to what is actually the case.
22:45And it may be that Trump – that 3 p.m. we're going to see some of these munitions dropped on Iran.
22:53I don't know if that's true.
22:54I'm just guessing.
22:55It's a wild guess.
22:56Yeah, that's kind of the implication from what I was told.
22:59This might be our entry into this war.
23:01That's what really worries me.
23:03And you know what?
23:04It's funny.
23:05We have seen Trump in the last 24 hours dismiss the concerns that what Iran might do to us
23:12because he says, no, we're protected, which implies to me just what you just said,
23:17that someone's telling him, oh, yeah, we've got all kinds of good air defense.
23:20And by the way, these bunker busters definitely can go 200 feet.
23:23But one other thing from this diagram you're talking about here, this also implies that Iran built these bunkers,
23:30that they didn't do any creativity, i.e. it's just straight down, so it's a nice little shaft that you can drop it into,
23:36as opposed to being offset or maybe multiple angles before where it is.
23:40We don't even know for sure under the ground where this thing may end up being.
23:43So correct me if I'm wrong, but you're kind of shooting blind anyway.
23:47You've preempted me, and that's good.
23:49Sorry.
23:50No, you and Gary do it all the time.
23:52It's great.
23:55In this diagram, what you see is a depiction of a penetrating warhead that goes 200 feet into the ground,
24:04around 60 meters, and then detonates at its maximum depth.
24:10Now, the detonation of the 6,000 pounds of explosives can create a cavity of probably around 10 or 15 meters in radius,
24:23so maybe 20 or 30 meters in diameter.
24:26Now, if there's a tunnel below it that's another 20 meters below it,
24:32it could probably punch through the top of the tunnel, too.
24:37But the tunnel's got to be within 10 or 20 meters of the location of the explosion.
24:47In other words, what if the tunnel is offset by 30 meters?
24:52We don't know where that tunnel is.
24:54We have no idea where the tunnel is.
24:55And so unless there's a big cave under there where it might penetrate to or the tunnel or the big cave is very shallow,
25:09then you might actually have a situation where, you know, you could do quite a bit of damage.
25:17But, you know, there's not necessarily any reason to believe that the Iranians would design something this way.
25:26So now, just to, in the case of the Fordow nuclear facility, let's just take a quick look at slide 19.
25:39I know Gary loves this stuff, too.
25:42He does.
25:43I do, too.
25:44He does.
25:46The notice that there, this is, the structures that are underground are under hills.
25:57You know, in other words, the surface of the ground is not flat and perfectly perpendicular to something that's coming on a perpendicular trajectory.
26:09That's relevant.
26:11And we'll see that starting with the next slide.
26:16So now, this is, I chose this article in particular.
26:21There are a lot of articles like this, incidentally, because there are a lot of people all over the world who study these things.
26:27And I chose this article in particular because there are five authors of the article.
26:34They're all Chinese.
26:36You know, this business of the Chinese somehow, you know, stealing all our technology.
26:41And, you know, Lindsey Graham and some of these other people better begin to understand that we're dealing with a highly sophisticated country, Iran among them.
26:53And there are highly sophisticated, very well-trained engineers and scientists in these countries.
27:00And the countries are utilizing these people for their defense.
27:06So this particular article here is about deflections that are caused on projectiles that penetrate into what they call composite concrete targets.
27:25But let me just, if you go to slide 22, we'll see this is an example of what they call a composite concrete target.
27:36In this particular case, this, the diamond shaped object that you see with 120 degree angle that's labeled is, is a long piece of concrete.
27:52It's an elongated piece of concrete with a diamond cross section.
27:57And if you, if you go to slide 23, the next slide, there you see, you see in the middle of this target that's set up for their test, you see this slab in front of you in the middle of it, and that's got a diamond shape.
28:15Now, if you go back to slide 22, the effect of the diamond shape is to cause the, the, the, the penetrating munition to be deflected.
28:32Let's go back one more slide to 21.
28:34Fascinating.
28:35Fascinating.
28:36That's, that's, that's, the implications are considerable.
28:39Oh, you bet.
28:40You bet.
28:41So if you're, if you're attacking a concrete, uh, uh, uh, a bunker, you really want to have your munition hit the surface perpendicular.
28:52In this case shown you here, the, um, the munition hits this, um, diamond shape.
29:02And, and, and of course the surface is at an angle of 60 degrees in this case, relative to the vertical.
29:09If you look at the front where it's labeled a, what happens is the motion of the front is slowed up by the engagement with the surface as it begins to penetrate.
29:25Well, the, the, the, the, the, the front is slowed up, but the back is not slowed up where you see the W, the Omega sign happens is the munition will twist, uh, toward, uh, the surface.
29:46It'll, it'll, it'll, it'll develop a direction, a deflection.
29:50And what we're seeing in the next slide, 22 is just an illustration of a, like a 25 degree deflection.
29:58Now, you, uh, when you build, uh, a, uh, a concrete, uh, protection, protective surface, uh, you, you intentionally put in these inhomogeneous sections.
30:12Uh, tanks have in homogeneous armor.
30:16It's a different concept, the, the armor, but, you know, spaced armor and things of that type.
30:21And, uh, it's the same concept.
30:23You know, you have a munition that's very long and very, uh, fast coming and it hits the tank and, and some part of the, uh, of the tank, uh, um, uh, protective, uh, structure is harder or more dense than the next, than the other piece.
30:41And it causes the munition to twist.
30:43And then you have a space between that piece of armor and, and the next piece.
30:47And, and you can divert the munition and keep the tank from, uh, the tank crew from being killed or hurt.
30:54So, uh, this is, uh, a concept that is very well understood and, uh, you know, studied in great detail.
31:02Now, um, who's to say what's under the ground at these shelters?
31:09I don't know.
31:10And, uh, you know, um, the United States may have people who know something about what's under the ground because, you know, our intelligence looks at how you, you know, when you, when you look at intelligence, uh, photos, you, you can often see the structure, you know, the construction.
31:30Of the underground system, you know, depending on what kind of system.
31:35And if it's a tunnel that's drilled from the outside, you can't see it.
31:38But if you're looking at structures that have been built up above the ground, you may see, uh, details of this kind, uh, uh, built by your adversary, but there's not much you can do about it.
31:49I mean, uh, if your adversary knows what they're doing, they could make, uh, the, uh, penetration of these munitions, uh, very problematic.
31:59So I don't know, uh, what the, um, uh, what, what the, uh, nature of the, uh, protective concrete or, uh, uh, stone granite that, uh, is associated with these different sites are.
32:17But, uh, uh, one source I read, which again, I have no way of knowing if it's accurate, uh, says that, uh, uh, the tents has, um, a 250 feet of, uh, of concrete.
32:31I, I don't know if that's quite a bit, but if that's the case, I can tell you, they're not going to be able to destroy things in the tents.
32:38It's a, if they built a concrete structure, that's that thick, uh, it's got to have inhomogeneous material in it intentionally put in to cause a deflection of munitions.
32:53So, and I, and I'm curious, uh, and I, again, this is maybe something you don't have specific knowledge about, but just from what you've seen and what you've experienced,
33:01when you were working in the government, how much do you think our intelligence officials are aware of all the things you're talking about here?
33:07And then getting that up to the senior decision makers?
33:11Well, there, there, I mean, I certainly met enormously capable analysts.
33:17The problem with the analysts is that they're not broad in their understanding.
33:23They, you know, they work on a specific task.
33:27So they go out, uh, the, the intelligence people go out and they get a contractor, somebody who's a real expert on penetrating munitions, maybe people at a national laboratory.
33:37And these people tell them about, oh, we can do this, we can do that and blah, blah, blah.
33:41And, uh, so the guys who get to collect the information are not first line experts and, uh, and they don't understand the broader implications of building in homogeneous concrete.
33:55And speaking of that, that non-homogeneous nature.
34:00So if, if in a, in a test, this, uh, GB 57 can penetrate 200 meters, I'm sorry, 200 feet of earth or concrete or whatever, what is your best estimate for what it can do?
34:15If there is a non-homogeneous and granite and all these different angles, how far can it go?
34:21And, and to what extent, if it's even predictable, if it goes straight in here, will it, could it be deflected maybe even multiple times before it runs out of kinetic power?
34:30It could be, uh, deflected multiple times.
34:33It could be bent when it's deflected.
34:35You know, this munition is very, very strongly built.
34:38But one of the problems you have with these munitions is they can, they were subjected to such extreme forces.
34:44If, if it deflects suddenly and it's underground, you know, cause it's constrained both on top and on the bottom, what, you know, cause it's moving through dense material.
34:54It might even bend, you know, become bent.
34:58And if it becomes bent, that, that would take a lot of force in this particular munitions case, cause it's got a lot of steel in it.
35:05But if that happens, uh, even a small bend, this thing is going to go skimming around.
35:12It's not going to penetrate, uh, you know, uniformly.
35:16I have no idea if this thing has been, uh, designed with all these, uh, uh, you know, the people who designed it are not stupid.
35:25You know, they know what they're doing.
35:27So somebody who designed this thing understands all the kind, all the things that you're, uh, you know, you're hearing from me.
35:36But, uh, the question is, does anybody above them who they've talked to understood this, you know, because all of a sudden it becomes a magic weapon at some point.
35:46And these, you know, these are technical people who, uh, often, um, you know, they, they can be retiring in terms of, you know, they can be, uh, uh, you know, when I was talking about technical things and people misinterpreted what I was saying, I would be very forceful in making it clear that they didn't, you know, that I, that what I was saying was different from what they were repeating.
36:11Uh, but, um, that was because I knew how easily misinformation propagates to the next level.
36:19And, uh, I, there's no way of knowing here.
36:22This is why, you know, I, I've said, I think.
36:26In our discussions earlier that you can't think, you can't assume that people who have all this access really know anything because they're getting information.
36:37Are you, are you aware of, obviously this, this, uh, GBU 57 has been tested at some point, the mother of all bombs, uh, the Moab or whatever was also tested or so.
36:47And I know it has a lot less penetrating capacity before it can blow up, but are you aware if any tests at all have been done against these angled defenses?
36:57Well, I don't know, but let me show you, uh, the test that was done in China.
37:03Okay.
37:03Yeah, please do.
37:04Yeah, let's look again at, uh, slide 23.
37:09And, uh, this was a target that the Chinese built to test the deflection capacity of this particular, uh, piece of inhomogeneity that was, you know, put in place so they could test its deflection capability.
37:27In slide 24, you'll see the outcome of their experiment.
37:32You can see that this munition, which was coming in perpendicular to the slab, hit the slab and probably was diverted by maybe 30 degrees or 40 degrees and slammed into the slab below almost, you know, sideways.
37:55It was really deflected tremendously.
37:57And, uh, so, uh, and, uh, if we go to, uh, slide 20 and we look at, um, the bottom table, experimental conditions and results,
38:16you can see that, uh, you can see that, uh, in the last column, they get, you know, 22 degrees, 15 degrees, 16 degrees, 28 degree, uh, deflection angles.
38:29That's, that's for this one situation.
38:33So, um, you know, if you, if you build a structure with multiple inhomogeneous layers, you know, life is going to be pretty tough for the munition.
38:44And it's not going to be, it's, it's, it's, it's a statistical question how far it goes in, but it's, it's not going 200 meters in this kind of medium.
38:53Now, this may be a question that you can't answer.
38:57I don't know, but let's, let's just say for the sense of argument that these, uh, inhomogeneous, uh, facilities and defensive, uh, barriers inside the, or under the ground rather is going to limit significantly what these, uh, whether it's GBU 57 or anything else can do.
39:16Meaning that the, the centrifuges are so below probably would be able to withstand all of that in that case.
39:23Do you have any knowledgeable about if Iran decided to race to the bomb because of all of this stuff, could they safely do so with the facilities at Fordow?
39:34Uh, without knowing the details, I could, I could guess a reasonable guess is yes.
39:40What, uh, you know, um, if you have 60% and I haven't done the arithmetic for this, I apologize because I can't do it and I haven't done it.
39:51So it's off the top of my head and people have to, uh, take it with a grain of salt.
39:56But if you get to 60% enrichment uranium, which they've already gotten to, uh, it's a myth to think that you've done 60% of the work to get to 90%, which is weapons grade.
40:10Uh, if you get to 60%, my off the top of the head, uh, guess is you've done, uh, pretty much, um, 75 or 80% of the enrichment work that you've needed to do.
40:24You probably only need 15 or 20% more enrichment effort.
40:29So, so if you don't have, so if you need to, if it takes you a year to enrich to 60%, then it takes you, uh, you know, uh, a month to enrich that 60% to 90%.
40:44So, um, so if the Iranians have truly not enriched to 90%, I, I, I can, next time we talk,
40:53I can have actual numbers for you.
40:54I just haven't had a chance to do the arithmetic, but, um, uh, the, uh, the big, the big secret about enrichment, which all the advocates for nuclear power have never wanted to talk about is that, uh, the, the first, the most effort in enrichment is at the lowest levels.
41:16So a simple minded way to think of it, it's not quite correct, but, but think of it this way.
41:21Let's say I have 1% enriched uranium.
41:24Uh, natural uranium is 0.7%, but let's say 1%.
41:28It takes me a certain amount of effort to get to 2%.
41:31It takes me a roughly similar amount of effort to get to 4%.
41:36It takes me a roughly similar amount of effort to get to 8%.
41:40It takes, so, so once I get this 50%, it takes me a roughly similar effort to get to a hundred percent.
41:48Now, this is not, um, uh, you know, this is not strictly true, what I'm saying.
41:53It's a, it's, it's not a, it's, it's, it's a conceptual picture.
41:58Yeah.
41:58Trying to paint for you.
41:59But the enrichment process gets more and more accelerated in terms of the amount of enrichment you get for the amount of work you do.
42:08And, um, the, uh, uh, uh, the, uh, so the, um, what are called, uh, SWOOs, separative work units, you need to get to, uh, 90% enrichment is, uh, uh, is, uh, is, is, is, is much lower to get to six.
42:30I mean, to get to 60%, you need almost all the SWOOs you need to get to 90%.
42:34Well, listen, we, we really appreciate you coming on today with this stuff because this has been one of, uh, potentially one of the most dramatic, uh, information shows that we've ever done with you because of the implications are pretty profound.
42:47Uh, if, and I literally just got another notification here from somebody who has some access, who claims that we are going to hit the United States is going to hit Fordow, uh, if not today, before the end of the weekend.
43:00So apparently it is coming.
43:02We'll see if that's not true.
43:04Uh, that's the point.
43:06Exactly.
43:07Because the implication being you going to enter the war to take away a capability and you probably the most likely outcome is that we'll fail to do that.
43:15But then we will enter the war.
43:17And now then we will be subject to missiles, which you showed us at the top of this episode.
43:21We don't have the ability to act adequately defend against.
43:25And our troops could be, uh, you know, sitting ducks for this and no way to defend themselves.
43:30Well, that is a terrible one to be one very important thing.
43:34And I've emphasized this every time I've been in a situation where people who are in target areas might hear what I'm saying.
43:42And I mean, this, I'm not trying to be funny.
43:44Take shelter.
43:46If you take shelter, your chances of surviving are tremendously increased, even if a munition lands next to you.
43:54Uh, so for example, in, in World War II, um, people would hear buzz bombs, these, uh, these, uh, early cruise missiles that would fly toward London.
44:09And, um, the buzz bomb would be flying in the air and then its motor would turn off and it would dive to the ground.
44:15And there was about seven seconds, uh, between the buzz bomb hitting the ground and the motor turning off.
44:24And people were told to get on the ground.
44:27You know, if you're close enough to hear the buzz bomb, it's close in.
44:30And, uh, just get on the ground.
44:32And the survival rate doubled.
44:36People were twice as likely.
44:38And this was a munition that fell one ton warhead that fell quite close.
44:42So, um, get on the ground, take shelter.
44:47That's the way, uh, you, you, you drastically reduce the consequences of a munition if it happens to be landing near you.
44:56And warning is available.
44:58People are given warning.
45:00Don't walk around thinking a defense is helping you.
45:04Don't assume anything.
45:05Just get sheltered.
45:07That's good advice.
45:09That's my advice.
45:10Appreciate that very much.
45:10And I hope that all of our troops in the Middle East watch this show and get that, that warning.
45:15I hope all guys get to take shelter.
45:16I appreciate that.
45:17Uh, listen, we really appreciate you coming on.
45:19This has been spectacular.
45:21I hope that people in the White House are watching this show today.
45:24They definitely need to invite you in for classified briefing.
45:27That would be great.
45:28Uh, but listen, we, we also have, uh, Doug McGregor coming on in about 15 minutes from now, by the way, because of the Iran side and probably because of the knowledge that they have that, uh, Ted Postal has just illuminated for us.
45:41They're saying we're not going to surrender.
45:43We're not going to give in because we get a bunch of missiles falling on us.
45:46Doug's going to explain why in about 15 minutes.
45:48Be sure and tune back in.
45:50Be sure and like, and subscribe if you haven't.
45:51Folks, that really does help us.
45:53Also, a quick reminder, we are on podcast now.
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46:07Thanks folks.
46:08And we'll, we've got a great one coming up for you.
46:10Tune in in about 15 minutes.
46:11See you then on Daniel Davis deep dive.
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