00:00Welcome back everyone. Thank you for joining me today. The Strait of Harbuz is a narrow strip of
00:05water just 33 kilometers wide at its tightest point. But don't let that size fool you. This
00:12waterway may be the single most important piece of maritime real estate on earth. Following Israel's
00:20unprovoked and illegal, according to international law, aggression against Iran, Iran has the right
00:26to defend itself. And so it launched a response in retaliation. According to reports, and one of
00:33them is Al Jazeera, an Iranian lawmaker now says that Tehran may be considering shutting down the
00:39Strait of Harbuz. Could that actually happen? And if it did, what would be the consequences not just
00:45for the Middle East, but for the entire world? Let's break it down. The Strait of Harbuz lies between
00:52Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south. It connects the Persian
00:58Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and from there to the wider Indian Ocean. The Strait
01:06is the only maritime gateway into the Persian Gulf. And of course, that makes it an essential choke
01:13point for global trade, especially for energy trade. And of course, I'm referring to crude oil
01:20transport. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, roughly 20% of the world's oil
01:27consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz every single day. That is about 17 million barrels
01:34of oil per day, 20% of global consumption on a daily basis. That's about 17 million barrels of oil
01:41daily. No other waterway on the planet plays a bigger role in the global energy supply.
01:48At its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz is only about 21 miles wide, as I mentioned earlier. But the
01:55actual shipping lanes that vessels use are even smaller than that, just two miles wide in each
02:02direction, and they are separated by a two-mile buffer. That means large oil tankers pass through
02:09a very confined space, which makes it easier, of course, to close, to blockade in unforeseen
02:17circumstances. In a time of conflict, that is a serious vulnerability. These waters are already
02:25heavily patrolled, and the risks of attack, seizure, or blockade are real, and they are escalating.
02:32We've seen it happen before. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, and by the way, many of you might
02:38remember that the United States supplied chemical weapons to the Iraqi regime at the time to wage
02:44war on Iran. But during that war, both sides targeted oil tankers and cargo ships in what became
02:52known as the Tanker War. Despite the attacks, the Strait of Hormuz was never completely shut down.
02:59More recently, in 2019, four ships were attacked near the Strait off the coast of Fujairah in the UAE.
03:08The United States blamed Iran for the attacks, and Tehran pointed to the Western interests in that
03:15event. But tensions, of course, ran high, as they typically do in the region, and global markets
03:21trembled after the attack and the impact that it had on the supply and the shipment of crude oil.
03:28Now, five years later, last year, in April of 2024, as conflict between Israel and Iran intensified,
03:36fears once again escalated that Hormuz could become another issue. Now, if Iran were to close
03:44the Strait of Hormuz, the global oil market would be thrown into a complete and utter chaos. However,
03:50it should be said that the Strait of Hormuz is a legitimate card for Iran to play in the worst-case
03:56scenario. It's part of economic leverage that Iran can and arguably should use to help aggressors
04:05understand the broader implications of waging attacks on Iran and declining to practice diplomacy.
04:14Oil prices, of course, would spike, possibly overnight. Even countries that don't really import oil directly
04:20from the Persian Gulf would feel the shock, without a doubt, because oil is traded on the global market
04:26and a supply disruption anywhere affects prices everywhere. So this will have global implications.
04:34This wouldn't just raise gas prices. It would drive up shipping costs. It would drive up energy bills and,
04:40of course, inflation worldwide. And crucially, there's really no alternative route for maritime exports
04:47from the Persian Gulf. If Hormuz closes, Gulf nations like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE
04:55wouldn't really be able to get their oil by sea. The supply chain bottleneck would be immediate and it
05:02would be extremely severe. This brings us to a critical question. Could Iran actually pull it off?
05:08Well, technically, given the geographical details and given how narrow the Strait is in certain points,
05:16Iran would be successful. Its navy and Revolutionary Guard can block commercial vessels in the Strait
05:22using such resources as drones, as speedboats, and other means. But a full closure of the Strait
05:29would be viewed as a major escalation and Washington would be very much against it. It would likely invite
05:36military retaliation, and not just from Israel, but from the United States too. The U.S. Fifth Fleet,
05:42which is headquartered in Bahrain, maintains a very strong naval presence in the region and previously
05:49issued multiple warnings effectively threatening Iran in the event of a closure of the Strait of
05:57Hormuz, saying that it would be considered a red line by the United States. Now, this threat may not
06:03be as strong of an argument as the harm that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would inflict on
06:10Iran's energy trade partners, primarily on China. And this may serve as a major reason not to go
06:19through with using this leverage. Now, according to Iranian lawmaker Ismail Khosari, Tehran is, quote,
06:27seriously considering it in response to escalating attacks from Israel. This could be, of course,
06:33just an idea that was verbalized during an interview, or it could be a warning. But if
06:39ships can avoid the Red Sea by rerouting around Africa, of course, it's longer, but it's possible
06:47to do that in the event of a blockade of the Red Sea. But the Strait of Hormuz is a different story.
06:53There's no plan B. What we are seeing now is a dangerous dance of escalation. Israel has launched
07:01unprovoked and illegal deep strikes into Iranian territory, including attacks on military and
07:07nuclear facilities, which, by the way, is an act of terrorism under the international law. Iran has
07:13responded with missiles, but the United States provides U.S. military personnel to defend Israel
07:20against a response to its own aggression. So, needless to say, the situation has escalated
07:26quickly, and there is a lot of room for further escalation. But closing Hormuz would change the
07:34equation. It would directly impact American consumers and likely force Donald Trump to reconsider his
07:41involvement in a, what appears to be, an escalating conflict that may very well spiral into a third
07:48world war. Right now, Iran hasn't closed the Strait of Hormuz, and it's unclear if it ever will. It can
07:57if it chooses to. But the very fact that it is on the table at this time, and it is publicly discussed
08:03by lawmakers, shows how high the stakes have become as Iran's sovereignty is being threatened. This isn't
08:12just about Israel and Iran anymore. It's about the global economy, energy security, and the thin blue
08:18lines that keep oil flowing and ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. As the world watches,
08:27one of the smallest waterways on Earth may hold the power to unleash some of the biggest consequences
08:34in this escalating, escalating story. Thank you very much for watching. Please remember to show
08:41your support. Like, subscribe, and share. It goes a long way. Support my work. You can do so by joining
08:48my Patreon, and you can do so by becoming a member on my YouTube channel, as well as a subscriber on
08:54Substack. You will find those links in the description below. Thanks so much for watching, and I will see you
09:00back here tomorrow. Bye for now.
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