00:00So Thomas, as of recording this, we're seeing two Chinese aircraft carriers operate in the
00:04Indo-Pacific. I want to speak specifically about the Liaoning, the one that's in the
00:08Western Pacific. Do you think this deployment is trying to send a message to Taiwan like we've
00:13seen in previous exercises or transits by this carrier? Obviously, when it comes to something
00:19moving in the Taiwan Strait or the east of Taiwan, it has to be about Taiwan. And with
00:24these recent movements, I don't necessarily see a particular reason why Taiwan may have
00:31allegedly made a provocation against the PRC to do something to conduct these exercises.
00:36And frankly, based on the movements, they don't look like that. They look like a normal kind of
00:41transit, normal exercise, things that the PRC Navy would like to do going and regularizing
00:46operations in the Western Pacific and slowly moving further east in the Pacific Ocean. Things
00:52could change on the way back. When the carrier returns, there could be that's when like a Taiwan
00:58related exercise could occur. But as of today, it looks like a normal operation in the Western Pacific.
01:05As China continues to modernize its military, specifically its Navy, do you think we're going
01:10to see more of these exercises geared less towards Taiwan and sending a signal and more to just
01:16training in general? The PRC now has two aircraft carriers. They're not just going to sit somewhere
01:21in port. They're going to be operating regularly in the same way that other countries and other
01:25navies have aircraft carriers. So while given the state of cross-street relations, U.S.-China relations,
01:31any movement of these two carriers is going to be looked at and analyzed with a magnifying glass. But
01:38there will come a time where like, yes, you don't necessarily have to cry wolf every time the
01:42Shandong or the Liaoning operate. You look at what is the circumstances that cause the specific
01:49movements? Is there something larger going on with the aircraft carrier movements? And we don't
01:54really see that. And if you look at the map of the movements over the last couple of years,
01:58you could argue that these movements are not necessarily even about Taiwan. They're more to
02:03the Philippines east, further south, and to Taiwan's east. So we don't really talk about what is the
02:08intimidation of these aircraft carriers operating and what is essentially the Philippines see?
02:13Why is the conversation always about intimidating Taiwan when given the state of PRC-Philippine
02:18relations in the South China Sea, we have an aircraft carrier operating on both sides of the
02:23Philippines. We have one in the South China Sea and one in the Philippine Sea. There's been a lot of
02:27speculation about how advanced China's navy and its military is. Where do you think we are in terms of
02:33having capabilities to go out deep into the Western Pacific? So yeah, they do have capabilities,
02:39like that's clear. They have two aircraft carriers that are now able to operate in the Western Pacific,
02:43but they're getting better at things. And like we saw with like the air defense identification zone
02:48incursions, it took, we're on year four and a half of those. They started in September 2020 regularly,
02:54and it took them a long time to go from the South China Sea and then using provocations or so-called
03:01provocations to move further north and now around Taiwan. So obviously they're going to need to have more
03:06aircraft carriers. They're going to need to be able to carry more aircraft and fly more sorties
03:10off of them and practice that in the Western Pacific. So I think we should keep an eye on those
03:16things and how they relate to other intimidation tactics of Taiwan. And yeah, over the next couple
03:21of years, we're likely going to see greater competencies. We may see them moving further east,
03:26closer to Guam or Hawaii. And then that may be determining on what US-China relations are,
03:31not necessarily China-Taiwan relations.
03:36you
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