- 7 months ago
President Trump says the existing system is rigged—and he’s doing something about it. From restructuring the US education and health systems, imposing tariffs on most trade partners, cutting US support to traditional allies, and withdrawing from the global fight against climate change—it’s clear he wants a new world order. But can one man rewrite the rules of the global game?
Join Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr. Woo Wing Thye and Melisa Idris as they break it down in the second episode of Woo Says.
Join Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr. Woo Wing Thye and Melisa Idris as they break it down in the second episode of Woo Says.
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00:00hello folks welcome to another episode of wu says where we get real about the u.s china and
00:15everywhere and everything in between it is two superpowers but one global story i'm melissa
00:22idris and with me is professor wu wingtai who has been studying u.s china relations since long
00:29before tariffs became headline news and this week we will be taking a closer look at trump's mission
00:36to blow up the current world order and what that means for the rest of us as you know president
00:43trump says the global system is rigged and he wants to do something about it so he's gone from tearing
00:51up trade deals to ghosting global climate efforts and it's very clear that he wants a new world
00:58order but one that is on his terms now the question is can one man even one that used to run the
01:06apprentice can one man truly reset the world order so let's ask professor wu uh prof when you think
01:15about what trump is doing um in his second term as as president what what do you think his current beef
01:22his beef is with the current world order what is his what has gotten him so riled up what is he
01:28what issues does he have with how the world is currently run today
01:34i think uh it is less a beef with the world than that he wants another term in office
01:44he wants to be popular and to be able to succeed himself by acclamation if possible and which means
01:54the objectives of getting re-elected means at least two explains two of his key actions so far
02:06the first objective that he wants to achieve is to bring back manufacturing jobs into the united states
02:17which is why he has imposed all this tariff number two is to show that we are unrivaled and to show that we
02:26are unrivaled he's trying to hold back china by slowing down the the transmission of leading edge technologies
02:37to china the third action that he's done is that he thinks that the us has been extremely generous to
02:50the world and the world has been very ungrateful about it that biting the hand that is feeding it
02:57okay i i want to question a couple of things there so when you talked about trump wanting to make america
03:04great again i'm thinking about the return to hegemony of the 20th century for the for the us
03:13is that still possible in a world where circumstances are no longer the same the global
03:19order is no longer the same it's no longer a unipolar world the way trump wants it to be
03:25um is his vision ultimately flawed in the 21st century
03:33well china right now has a gdp in i was his production capacity equals that of the united states
03:44which means that china right now can make the same number of aircraft carriers as the us is able to make
03:51so in terms of production capacity china now equals that of the us and the big difference is china's
04:04gdp per person is only one third that of the us is less than one third that of the us it's more
04:11like one quarter of the us but the chinese population is more than three times that of the us
04:19so you could see that if china continues to upgrade technologically the gdp per person would go up to
04:29us level basically what explains the difference in gnp per person it is the level of technology
04:38so the chinese growth potential is to reach that of the us level so which means that if you're able to
04:46get the technology to get the technology of the present it will be three times bigger than the united states
04:55in production capacity and you could see that this diffusion of technology is going to be very
05:01difficult to stop largely because the chinese can buy from the europeans can buy from the japanese can
05:08buy from the koreans while learning how to make up what that is denied to them
05:15so the catching up for china is two-thirds because it's less than one-third of the us so on that sense
05:24you could see that the us is going to be one-third the size of china eventually
05:32now does that mean that china is going to be the global hegemon like the united kingdom was in the 19th
05:40century and the us in the 20th century well china should china is under no illusion that it will be
05:49the global hegemon not because it's afraid of not catching up not because it doesn't want to be the
05:56global hegemon the fact is it is not possible because india is also growing rapidly and india is going to
06:07equal china in size if not exceed china so it's not just the chinese dragon displacing the american eagle from
06:17the sky there will be this gigantic elephant that can reach up to the sky so the world stage will have
06:25at least two big giants so the idea of a unipolar world means that you have to stop the rise of india
06:34as well and given trump's actions lately it has certainly greatly increased the resolve of europeans
06:47to tighten their integration and to have a common uh military force outside of nato so if europe
06:59were to become uh the what was envisaged by its founders other words a one european country that
07:09dominates dominates the continent that will be certainly as big as the us okay so you could see
07:18that uh the age of global hegemon is over the diffusion of technology has allowed has made the world
07:27a multi-polar one this is so interesting what happens when giants jostle right um when the eagle and the
07:38tiger the dragon and the elephant all jostle for global power and influence what that happens to
07:47everyone else all the smaller countries the mid-sized countries how do we avoid getting trampled
07:57well even though trump says we want to have primacy in the world to be number america first
08:08and biden also subscribe to american primacy but that is rhetoric for election purposes
08:17these people are smart enough to know that there is no number one in a nuclear age
08:24we will all there only be cockroaches left if we accidentally start a war
08:30so you can talk big but you realize in the end we mustn't fight and what is the traditional way to not fight
08:39it is that at some point we will have to agree this is your part of the world that is my part of the world
08:46so we have got spheres of influence and this in this spheres of influence you know
08:55you can be benevolent and helpful to your members
09:02while leading them to greatness of course but the truth is if you are mem if you are a smaller countries
09:09basically you get you are being asked choose whose sphere of influence would you like to be in that's
09:17what it is and um this explains why the chinese have uh the nine dash line which brings the chinese
09:26maritime border right up to the doorstep of malaysia philippines indonesia vietnam because it's trying to
09:36define its sphere of influence because they are both in a defensive face they haven't agreed yet on
09:43what the sphere of influence is so now is the time to build it and to be in a sphere of influence for a
09:49country like malaysia means that we are a member of a club and we will freely trade with members of this
09:57club but we will have not have the same market access to the members in the other clubs so that
10:05means that our market access is reduced so it's not so good and of course when you've got a big brother
10:12setting the tone that means your sovereignty is also compromised i think the best uh best outcome is that
10:24we have to think about
10:28being what's the possibility of creating a buffer zone between the giants in other words do we have the
10:40the imagination do we have and do we have the capability to form a caucus of buffer states
10:52to such that we are friends to both sides and because the buff the caucus of buffer state is big enough
11:00we have enough economic weight both the superpowers have to be nice to them
11:06and i think that would be the best uh that would be the best uh that would be the preferred outcome
11:15to the world just being divided into different spheres of influence
11:23okay this idea of having a kind of club or the buffer the caucus of buffer states as you
11:31talked about a kind of band of middle powers saying okay we're not going to pick sides we're not going
11:37to pick spheres of influence bruv i think it's great and you you called it imaginative whether or not we
11:43have that imagination or we have that will to do that but in all honesty is it realistic in all honesty
11:50what would it take to build such a coalition is it even possible to take those steps
11:57i think it is very possible but the first steps are very important you the the whatever caucus of
12:08countries it has to achieve critical mass in economic rates quite early in other words you have to become
12:18big enough quickly enough such that people have to pay you attention you become respectable when you are big
12:30okay now for for a country like malaysia if you do not want to choose to be in any of this sphere
12:41how would one go about it i think uh all this talk about should we negotiate bilaterally the u.s
12:50or collectively in the u.s it's just uh missing the point of uh you cannot negotiate bilaterally or
13:00collectively unless the u.s chose to accept but uh collective bargaining with you
13:08so collective bargaining is something that you have to create and how could that be created
13:16instinctively one instinctively many third world countries would think of a new bandung conference
13:24in other words uh as a global south coalition that's a possibility and in fact the dynamics are
13:34leading that way but i think this is not a good solution a better solution is a north south coalition
13:45of middle power countries because what is a global south a global south would be uh joining the brics
13:56b-r-i-c-s after all malaysia indonesia vietnam and thailand some already members some are having observer status
14:09so that seems like uh the old roots of reviving the bundle conference i think that's a mistake because
14:17the why should we bring class warfare to the international level the whole goal is to ensure is to maximize
14:29global prosperity and to ensure peace the goal is not global class warfare so that's why i think that
14:40there's a coalition of a coalition of not just a seo but you must get japan and korea involved so that's the north
14:48south coalition in asia but it shouldn't be anywhere be ethnic based either i think that the middle
14:58income countries of europe who are traditionally friends of the u.s could should also be approached
15:06to form such the this north south coalition so that we are more like a a club that resembles the united
15:15nations rather than a poor the bunch of a union of poor states who are crying for social justice we should be
15:26working for maximum global prosperity okay so it doesn't the good news is all of this like japan
15:38korea are really rich countries and eu are really rich countries so you just these countries together with
15:47asia we would have a large economic weight which would be which you would get a respect from china and the
15:56united states and clearly it is not a caucus that is biased for the u.s or bias for china whereas bricks
16:08looks very much like uh is bias in favor of r and c so i i i at which they are going to be the new giants
16:18in the future so i think that uh a better uh outcome is not to instinctively call for a global south alliance
16:28kind of like promoting international class warfare but more like a big enough version of the united
16:40nations can i ask you if we do get the buffer states to band together um what what what kind of new world
16:49order would we be stepping into is there actually a silver lining to all of this global turbulence that
16:56was triggered by trump's vision of reshaking the current world order well the u.s will certainly
17:08have to return to the global order for the simple reason that climate change and by was biodiversity
17:15protection threatens our common survival and so biodiversity destroying biodiversity is destroying
17:26the food chain and destruction of the food chain means that even though we sit in the top of it will be
17:32the first to die so just for and self-interest the u.s will have to return to that but it might be a
17:41number of years i would say unfortunately it could be a long as long as 10 years before an enlightened
17:49group of american elites displaced this populist coalition when the populist coalition has failed
17:59in doing what it promised to do the u.s will then be ready to return but what do we do in the meanwhile
18:08in the meanwhile we keep free trade going for the rest of us for those who don't want to participate you can
18:16you can stay out and the other thing we do is to continue the work on fighting pandemics
18:27and uh fighting global climate change basically there are uh global missions that we have to undertake
18:37like peacekeeping mission so the first part is economic we want of the free trade area with whoever wants
18:45to be a member we want to have a peace caucus where we do not want to take sides and we try to come up with
18:54good ideas to the major powers of how they could resolve their distrust of each other the third part that is
19:04important for this new caucus to do is to have a development agency assistance agency because the rich
19:16countries in this caucus must help the poor countries in the caucus to to develop because
19:23how why do you think many of them join spheres of influence because the major powers
19:30bright them into joining so instead of leaving them vulnerable to being bought up by money
19:38we will for our own self-interest help them to develop so that such a caucus will have three components
19:49one is the economic to protect the global trade system the second one is the peacekeeping
19:56mission and other global public goods like fighting climate change and protecting power diversity
20:04and the third is actually a moral imperative the rich helping the poor and that is actually a good idea
20:13it's just like uh uh if one were the richest man in the village you should certainly the first thing to do is
20:21to start a good school so that everybody gets educated so your own children have better marriage partners
20:26in the future and better workers for your business enterprises too so it's enlightened self-interest
20:37okay bravo i think that takes us to the end of this episode of who says thank you so much for
20:44for getting real about the us and china and everywhere and everything in between uh appreciate your
20:51insights that's it from this episode of who says i'm melissa idris and we will see you same time next
20:56week bye
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