White Sox vs. Royals: KC's Edge with Kris Bubic on Mound

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00:00If you're going to take on the Chicago White Sox,

00:02you got to make it worth it.

00:042.11 p.m. Eastern time.

00:06First pitch today inside Kauffman Stadium in KC.

00:09Some afternoon baseball.

00:10The Royals, a now $2.50 favorite DRS against the Sox.

00:15Total stands at 8.50.

00:17Will KC continue its winning win?

00:18Yeah, you might say that's crazy.

00:19Over a $2 price here for Kansas City.

00:21Who's actually on the mound?

00:22Is it Big Game James from back in the day?

00:24No, it's actually Chris Bubich.

00:25He's doing very well again this season.

00:2741 innings pitch.

00:28How about an ERA of under two?

00:29It's actually listed at 1.98.

00:31His XFIP number, 3.65.

00:33Very manageable.

00:34Then you take a look at Davis Martin,

00:35who might as well be Dean Martin out there

00:36on the mound for the White Sox.

00:38He's got a 3.52 ERA, which you like,

00:40but a higher XFIP number of 4.38.

00:43So let's take a look at the correlation with these pitchers

00:45and how they actually match up.

00:46You take a look at Bubich.

00:47Not much that you don't love.

00:48Last year's statistics, only 140 batters.

00:51Stellar.

00:51This year's statistics, already over that at 168 batters.

00:54How about an ISO against of 0.91?

00:56Fantastic.

00:57Weighted on base percentage of 270.

00:59Fantastic.

00:59Not a huge K-rate guy, but doesn't give very many free passes here

01:03on the bases per walks.

01:04Then you look at the Chicago White Sox lineup,

01:06and it seems like it's an everyday occurrence.

01:09Who would you like in this lineup?

01:10Well, Luis Robert actually threw 37 at-bats against left-handed pitching,

01:13a .233 ISO, and a weighted on base percentage of .382.

01:16You also take a look at Carroll ripen ahead of him,

01:19only 20 at-bats, but a .420 weighted on base percentage.

01:21Everybody else below the bar.

01:23So, if you just pitch around one or two guys, Bubich really should have a day here,

01:27which is why their favorite's so high.

01:28But also, Martin on the other side does struggle with lefty and righty batters here.

01:32Low K-rate, so the ball should be in play.

01:34If you're looking for a guy in this lineup every single day,

01:36it's usually Bobby Witt and Mikel Garcia as the two go-to options.

01:40They should win in a lower-scoring game.

01:42I don't even know if you want to take a look at a team total for the Royals itself,

01:45because I don't think they need very many runs, and the pressure's going to be on.

01:48And they are the home team, which probably means, Ben, only eight at-bats as opposed to nine.

01:51Yeah, 8-14, the start for Kansas City on April 19th.

01:56Not a very good start for a Royals team, of course,

01:58that had a lot of optimism following a playoff appearance a season ago.

02:02Since then, DRS, Kansas City has won 14 of their last 16,

02:06hoping for a four-game series sweep against the White Sox.

02:09If Chicago is in your division, take advantage.

02:13And some teams around the AL Central are doing exactly that.

02:16DRS, first two weeks of this year, it's like, ah, same old AL Central.

02:20Everybody flirting with around 500, maybe a few games above or a few games below.

02:25The Royals now 22-16.

02:27The Guardians now 22-15.

02:29And the team with the best record in the entirety of the American League,

02:33that would be the Detroit Tigers.

02:34There's a 23-13 mark and a doubleheader today expected at Coors Field between the Tigers and the Rockies.

02:42Colorado, the worst team in Major League Baseball.

02:45Now 6-29 after an opening loss in this series yesterday.

02:50First day of this series on Tuesday, DRS.

02:53We got a postponement due to weather.

02:54That's why we're playing two today to end out this three-game set.

02:58First game, a little bit after 3 p.m. Eastern time.

03:02Casey Mize on the bump for the Tigers.

03:04They're a hefty favorite, minus 180, as you would expect for every team that takes on the Rocks this year.

03:09Yeah, and you take a look at Freeland on the mound.

03:115.7 ERA.

03:12Always terrible, but understand that with a grain of salt.

03:14He does pitch in Colorado, but how about his XFIP number?

03:163.38, much better than that ERA.

03:19Now, also, I just wanted to bring that up because when you're taking a look at the batters

03:22and how they line up in both of these games, right?

03:25Yesterday, I liked a few batters for Detroit.

03:27They scored six runs, eight runs yesterday, last night.

03:29I didn't even cash in any RBI props in that game, which is crazy.

03:31Should have just went with the team total.

03:33Didn't work out for me.

03:34But if you're jumping back on Detroit today, and let's just say going up against Freeland,

03:37who does have pretty good statistics, you're probably locked and loaded on some right-handed

03:40batters.

03:41And I believe it was yesterday, Gleyber Torres, who had the big day here.

03:45Excuse me, Javi Baez, I believe, had the big day, like the nine-hole yesterday for Detroit.

03:49That can happen.

03:50That lineup presents itself extremely well against right-handed pitching.

03:53If you remove Riley Green, who's a left-handed batter with underwhelming statistics against

03:57lefties and also in the last batter in the lineup, who's another lefty in Trey Sweeney,

04:00everybody has a high-weighted on-base percentage, which holds well.

04:04If you look at the opposite side in game number one with Casey Mize, he's not a great pitcher.

04:08But nobody, even like Colorado, every time you break down this card, you should be like,

04:11man, their numbers are sensational because they play a course.

04:14But the game doesn't adjust the course here.

04:17These are just the numbers based on home and away, which they always should have the advantage.

04:20Everybody in the lineup stinks outside of Drew and Beck, who actually did have an RBI yesterday.

04:23Game number two, if we just jump to that one, Kyder Montero, high XFIP number on that port

04:28for the Detroit Tigers, that could get you into problems with Tanner Gordon with no statistics

04:32in Major League Baseball this season.

04:33You're probably looking at, and rightfully so, every time Colorado plays, I don't care

04:36if it's a doubleheader.

04:37It's hard to take them in either one of these two games, Ben.

04:39Let's go.

04:46Let's go.

04:48Let's go.

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