Maiden Horse Publisher Targets Kentucky Derby Victory

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00:00Is it going to be lucky number 13 this year for Publisher? Maybe, but Pete, this horse is a maiden.

00:07He's never won a race before, and he's in the Kentucky Derby, but he has outfinished some other

00:13really nice horses. I mean, most recently, he was in the Arkansas Derby. He ran second. He finished

00:18behind Sandman. He was in front of Cole Battle, so he's picked up some points along the way.

00:24Do you think he's got a shot in here for Steve Asmussen, one of the all-time great trainers

00:29who's never won the Derby? Yeah, I mean, he's got the right running style, if you believe,

00:34of course, that there's going to be a hot pace. He'll be coming from the back. I just think the

00:38Arkansas Derby was a race that is such a freakishly run race. They went so, so, so fast early that the

00:45horses, of course, in front had to get tired, and they all came running at the end. So I'm actually

00:50fading the entire Arkansas Derby this year. I'm not using any of them. I think they all lucked

00:56into that trip. While, in theory, it could happen again, I think now you have the California

01:01horses, likely, you know, if Baeza makes it in as well, which is journalism, and the New York

01:07horses. I think, I just don't think they're as good, in my opinion, at this point. So I'm fading

01:14publisher, for sure. We're coming out of a time like March Madness. A lot of people think about

01:18college basketball. So what Pete's doing here, he's kind of like fading one of the conferences,

01:22right? Just saying, like, that conference isn't quite as strong when they step up and

01:26have to face some of the others. We see that happen quite often, and Pete's going to do

01:30it with the Arkansas Derby and some of the horses coming out of that race. What do you

01:33think, Alexa, about publisher, the maiden? Yeah, I mean, playing a maiden in the Derby

01:38is a bold move, right? So, so there's that. But also, I kind of agree with Pete, where he's

01:44gotten the perfect setup for his running style, and his last two starts, both in Arkansas Derby

01:49and the Rebel. He had fast paces to run at, and still couldn't quite run them down. So

01:53I think that's a big negative. I think you could play him underneath for a big price if

01:57you'd like, but I'm going to leave him out. I think we've had three maidens win the Kentucky

02:03Derby, but we have to go back a long ways. I'm looking at 1884, 1919, and 1933. So nothing

02:10recent for horses who have never won going into the Kentucky Derby. Pete, up next, it's

02:16his tastic. He won the Louisiana Derby over at the fairgrounds this year, and he's another one

02:22for trainer Steve Asmussen right next door. What was impressive about him, he looked good when he

02:28ran in the longest distance race of his career. So distance probably isn't going to be a problem

02:33for him. It's just more of like, how good is he really? Yeah, no, I'm going to use him underneath

02:39for sure. I mean, he's in shape. He only has one bad race. You just throw out the Arkansas race

02:45in the Rebel where he was from the outside post. He never fired. I think he's rounding

02:50into good form. He's by tis the law. Of course, I'm no problem with the distance to your point.

02:55He's got a couple of races at Churchill already. So he's been here and he's sort of been in

02:59training the entire since July. Right. So he's got a lot of bottom. I feel like the distance

03:05and his foundation is there. He's I think he's definitely a must use and you're going to

03:10get a very good price on the Louisiana Derby winner. And Alexa, he has one of my personal

03:15favorite jockeys and maybe the strongest finisher of all of the jockeys out there in Joel Rosario.

03:21So this horse is a closer with a very good closing jockey aboard. What do you think about

03:26his tastic? I mean, he's the top earner in this field. He's won over one and a half million

03:31dollars already. So, I mean, you can't really throw shade at him. He's very, very talented.

03:35I really struggled on whether or not to include him in my top four. I ended up leaving him out,

03:40but absolutely can see playing him at the long odds. I would want, I know morning line,

03:44they have him at 20 to one or plus 2000. I would want at least 12 to one on him.

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