Mega storm latest: Heavy snow, rain, severe threat, it's all happening

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00:00Well, we still have an impressive spring storm headed our way for late tomorrow

00:03into Saturday. Ahead of it, record warmth, potentially Friday, with

00:07dropping temperatures Saturday and return to warmer temperatures next week

00:10after a cold day Sunday.

00:22So some pretty impressive high temperatures tomorrow, sixties today,

00:25but seventies for the first time this season in the Twin Cities. This comes

00:29pretty early, three to four weeks earlier than normal. It could be the

00:32fifth earliest 70 degree reading on record in the Twin Cities, and we could

00:36break an actual record for the date that was set in 2012, which is the

00:39warmest March on record. Weather service is forecasting high of 76. That

00:43might be a little high, but 73 is the record. We're probably gonna be in that

00:47low to mid seventies range and a little reminder here that these temperatures

00:52are not normal. In fact, a rapid attribution statistical analysis shows

00:57that these temperatures made 3 to 4 times more likely because of climate

01:01change. We warmed March temperatures about 3 50 years, and that's enough to

01:05just exponentially increase some of these extremes. We've got another

01:09extreme to an upper level trough. Big one in the West is going to produce a

01:13very impressive spring storm here for the central U. S. On several fronts. So

01:18that upper level trough will kind of spin off an upper level low here. That's

01:22gonna swing right through Minnesota tomorrow night into Saturday, and that

01:26upper level low or trough is essentially cold air loft that creates

01:29instability, gets all sorts of dominoes falling here, and one of the things

01:34we're gonna see is an impressive low pressure, potentially 973 to 976

01:40millibars of pressure, and that puts it just above the potential record

01:44territory across Kansas. 969.9 millibars is the March record for

01:51southwestern Minnesota. It is about 969.5, and we're forecasting potentially

01:56973 millibar pressure record. So impressive storm even by March

02:01standards and a moderate risk of severe weather already being forecast in the

02:05day to outlook for March. As far north as Iowa, Missouri, Illinois is very

02:10impressive. Slight risk goes into southeastern Minnesota. The main thing

02:13we're gonna be looking is potentially some high winds and large hail. The

02:17tornado threat really is mostly to our south, but can't be ruled out if these

02:22storms hold together. We're gonna have enough instability. This is CAPE,

02:24convective available potential energy. Definitely enough energy in southern

02:28Minnesota and Iowa for strong storms. Supercell index, though, in the

02:32significant tornado parameter are on the lower end, so doesn't mean we won't see

02:36anything, but not as impressive as you'd want to see for maybe more

02:40significant severe weather. And in fact, when we look at the updraft tracks or

02:44updraft helicity tracks in some of the models, you can see that most of the

02:47stronger storms stay in Iowa, but one or two rogue cells could make its way

02:51into southern Minnesota on. These air forecast wind gusts through Friday

02:55evening and Friday night could see some 50 to 60 mile an hour wind gusts out of

02:58some of those storms late tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. So I do

03:02think we'll see the first severe thunderstorm warnings of the season

03:05somewhere in southern Minnesota. So storms are gonna pop in Iowa and then

03:09lift north and east. They will weaken as they move across our atmosphere in

03:12Minnesota. But again, it's a matter of a couple of those strong storms holding

03:16together across southern Minnesota. And then we will see a transition from

03:19rain to snow west to east. But by the time we see enough cold air in eastern

03:24Minnesota, a lot of the moisture is gonna be gone. So it's gonna be this

03:26swap of western Minnesota that sees really the significant snow and then

03:30snow will slowly make its way east towards us by tomorrow or Saturday

03:33evening into the overnight. And that's why most of the snow fall is gonna be

03:38western Minnesota. At least several inches of snow. We could see over a

03:41half foot, especially northwestern Minnesota. High winds for all of us,

03:45too. So blizzard conditions potentially by Saturday here across western

03:50Minnesota. So seventies tomorrow blizzard conditions Saturday,

03:54impressive March storm and a little ice in between, potentially for

03:58northwestern Minnesota. So a lot of things to keep track of and monitor

04:02here over the next 48 hours today. Very nice. 63 most of tomorrow. Nice to

04:08clouds will increase, but 72 for the high. At least the record high again

04:12tomorrow. 73 evening thunderstorms. Looks like those reach the metro. It's

04:17gonna be between seven and nine p.m. initially and then on and off showers.

04:20Thunderstorms tomorrow night. Then we get kind of into the dry slot for much

04:24of Saturday. Temperatures will fall and we'll see what moisture there is turned

04:28from rain to snow by evening on. Then it does look as though we'll see snow

04:32showers tomorrow night before that system pulls out Sunday. Sunny, though

04:36Sunday, Monday, Sunday will be chilly, though just upper thirties before we

04:39pop back into the fifties. And we're still watching a potential system next

04:43Tuesday into Wednesday that could deliver some snowfall. Doesn't look like

04:47a big storm, but we might see a coating of some fresh snow around here then.

04:51But that's still several days out and one storm at a time around here.

05:09Mhm.

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