00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes.
00:07Joining me now is Clifford Winston, a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings
00:11Institution. Clifford, thank you so much for coming on again. I think something that a lot
00:18of people perceived as a joke is now becoming a bit more serious, and that is President Trump
00:24ruminating on this idea of a third term because he's joked about it at rallies before. He
00:29now appears to really be considering it because reportedly in a phone call with NBC News,
00:35he said while it's still too early, a lot of people do want him to run for a third term.
00:39He's not ruling it out, and there are methods to do so. And you recently wrote,
00:45the Supreme Court must resist Trump's threat to democracy. Talk to us about the piece.
00:49Well, sort of Trump's operations. I mean, he usually tests the waters. So he'll say something
00:56in joking, but he'll see what the reactions are. And it was something like this. I'm going to run
01:02for a third term. I have no doubt people close to him said, that's a great idea and you ought to do
01:09it. And he started throwing out suggestions on how he could be able to do it and what legal
01:17justifications he would have. So, you know, we start with that. And, you know, things are going
01:23to go back and forth. But, you know, my concern is really, as this goes on, all it's going to do is
01:31brew more hostility between the two sides, if you will, MAGA and the rest of the country.
01:37And that's not good. We have enough. And I think this is an area where the Supreme Court can step in
01:43and simply say, look, this is something that's pretty cut and dry. You're not able to run. We
01:50have the 22nd Amendment. It's pretty easy to interpret. You know, we should dispense with this.
01:56But it does not appear they're going to be doing anything like that.
01:59I do want to read the language of the 22nd Amendment. It says no person shall be elected
02:04to the office of the president more than once. And the loophole that seems to be there is that term
02:10elected because President Trump was reportedly asked about different methods. And one of the
02:15methods being Vice President J.D. Vance, he runs for president. Trump runs as vice president. And
02:21then J.D. Vance hands it on over to President Trump. I mean, how strong of an argument is that?
02:27The response to that is you actually can't run for president with a vice president who couldn't
02:34serve as president. So, yes, Vance could run and he will, no doubt. But I think he would not be able
02:44to choose Trump as a vice president simply because then Trump wouldn't be able to serve because of the
02:5022nd Amendment. So I think that's hard to get that one by. But, you know, my bigger point in this article
02:57and has more to do with just everything the court does is so much of what they do is based on their
03:05ideological preferences. You know, this is not mathematics with cut and dry answers and, you
03:12know, serious science with theory and empirical evidence. This is what they think. And, you know,
03:18I think Judge Richard Posner put it well. You know, you think about what the decision is that you want
03:24to reach and you find the law to support it. And that's really pretty much what they do. And they
03:30could do it in this case. I have no doubt that Thomas and Alito would certainly support it. I think
03:38there's a pretty good chance that Gorsuch and Kavanaugh would support it. So it really gets down to
03:44Roberts and Barrett. Are they going to go along with it? And who knows? I don't see the harm.
03:54I mean, there are counterarguments to this we can get into of them just saying,
03:59fully, let's stop this. And let's not have this hanging over us for three plus years. You know,
04:06this is not going to go away until they say it's over. And you know how Trump is. I mean,
04:10he'll dig in on something he will not let go. And so that really is the issue that I'm motivating it
04:16because I am concerned in general that the justices make decisions that are based on their
04:23ideological preferences. They can justify them in terms of the law, however they want.
04:28And they certainly could do it in this case. And I think it would be helpful to make a statement
04:34early rather than later.
04:36One counterargument could be, hey, President Trump hasn't done anything formal about this. He's simply
04:42ruminating, simply floating the idea out there, seeing what, you know, is said about it. He's
04:48saying it's still too early. So what exact action would you want to see from the Supreme Court?
04:56Does not make any comments about cases that are not brought before them. All right. So that's the
05:04argument right there. They shouldn't say anything because there's no case before them. This sort of
05:10breaks with ethics. You're not supposed to do that. Just general behavior by the court. You know,
05:16why do we need to do something like this? Okay. A couple of reasons. One, as I said, this is a source,
05:24a pretty serious division in the country. And, you know, who knows how these things can flare up
05:29as things go on? Two, you know, one knows that Trump will try to use this for leverage in any way
05:38he can. He'll hang it over people. And if he can use it to bargain in something, someone creative can
05:44think of how he could do it, maybe to get a commitment that he won't be prosecuted for any
05:49crimes after he becomes a citizen. You know, who knows? Right. Third, I don't see the harm. I really
05:56don't. I think you could say in a very clean way. And, you know, it's not unheard of that justices
06:04make comments that have implications for cases. Just to say, look, the 22nd, you know, have a
06:12justice say, here's my opinion of the 22nd Amendment. And simply say, you know, somebody who served two
06:19terms cannot run for a third, period. That would be enough. What justices here do you think are going
06:26to be the most important when it comes to this? Because you did float Justice Amy Coney Barrett
06:30and Chief Justice John Roberts. Where do you think they would land? And have they broken with Trump
06:36before? And most importantly, have they broken with President Trump recently in the second term?
06:43You know, Roberts did not like Trump's call for a judge to be impeached,
06:49because he disagreed with him on a ruling about someone. And Robert said, no, that is not the
06:59appropriate behavior or action that we do with a judge. We appeal. So he clearly has indicated his
07:08dissatisfaction with that. And, you know, Coney Barrett just recently sided with the liberal justices
07:13on a case about, you know, again, one of Trump's actions. So I think she could think independently.
07:21MAGA let her know about it, that they didn't like what she did. So she's got to be thinking about
07:27that, I have no doubt. So those are the two who have shown that they're not completely in lockstep
07:34agreement with Trump. And they could make a statement about that. I don't know, in terms of your
07:41question, what are they likely to do? You know, most of the people who, in the legal area, who get
07:48back to me, are saying, in the end, they're not going to go along with it. If they think they will
07:54uphold the 22nd Amendment, and if push comes to shove, they will say, no, you cannot run for a third term.
08:03And I hope they're right. But my feeling is still, if that's what they think, I just don't think it
08:10would be such a bad idea if they said it earlier, rather. But a lot of people say, no, well, that's
08:16not what they do, which is kind of strange, given that we have the executive branch, which has broken
08:22every tradition we've ever thought of what the executive branch does. I don't see that it would
08:28be so horrifying that the judicial branch does something different for once, and says, no,
08:34you're bound by the 22nd Amendment, you can't run again.
08:38Speaking of Trump running for a third term, I spoke with a member of Congress, Congressman Andy
08:44Ogles, who introduced a resolution to amend the 22nd Amendment, and it would allow President Trump
08:50to seek a third term. And the language was very specific. It was because President Trump didn't
08:55serve consecutive terms. But there has been, I mean, Democrats have gone really against that.
09:01Even some Republicans said that, hey, that's a long shot. That probably won't happen. Do you think
09:07that there is appetite amongst even the American people to see any president, even President Trump,
09:13serve a third term?
09:15I mean, to be honest here, I mean, this is really sort of cult devotion that he's been able to inspire.
09:23So I have no doubt that, you know, that 40 plus percent would love to see him in for a third term.
09:30You know, it's really a question, obviously, of the people in the middle. So no, I don't think,
09:36and also, they're very passionate about their views, probably more passionate than the people
09:42who oppose him. So there may be more people who oppose him. But I think the MAGA people seem to be,
09:47at this point, anyway, more passionate. So yes, I think that there certainly would be a notable
09:52fraction of this country that would be happy to see him serve a third term,
09:56and continue to carry on the way he's carrying on.
10:00So let's say that the Supreme Court doesn't wade into this just yet. From the legal experts you talked
10:07to, I mean, how feasible is it that President Trump actually tries running for a third term?
10:13I mean, the 22nd Amendment is pretty cut and dry.
10:15I think, but I think they're going to say, look, let's, we have nothing to lose. Let's bring the
10:24case to the court, right? I mean, I don't think they anticipated when they brought the case about
10:31Trump's immunity for criminal actions while he was in office, they would get the ruling they got.
10:38They got a lot more than what they expected, right? So I think they're feeling, look, we may win this.
10:45Who knows? And so I think they will, if he wants to run again, then I have no doubt they will bring
10:52a case. And I think their attitude will be, we have nothing to lose. We may win it. They'll come up
10:58with crazy things and make the argument. And who knows what the justice is going to do? I mean,
11:04as I said, I think most likely it would be a five, four cases as we see things now, but
11:10you know, I'm not, I'm not putting any guarantees. I don't know how anybody could.
11:16What specifically then are you looking out for? Because as we talked at the beginning of this
11:20conversation, this seemed to start as off as a joke and now it's ratcheting up to something
11:25a little more serious. I mean, he said this is still early on. He hasn't made any formal plans,
11:31but what specifically are you looking out for next?
11:35It depends, again, how his popularity is maintained. You know, if people like what he's doing,
11:46me, obviously he's very sensitive to public opinion. If somehow we get through this tariff
11:52mess, you've been speaking to people about that. So that's a long shot, but he's defeated a lot of
11:59long shots in his life and our economics are good. And we wind up getting foreign policy
12:08settlements, reducing chances of war, ending certain fights that we have now or conflicts
12:15that we have now, all this looking good. He's going to say, he's going to think to himself,
12:20look, I don't want to be a private citizen. I know they're going to come after me and they will.
12:25There's no question that any people on the left have a chance to bring back cases against him or
12:32even new cases. They're going to do it. And he says, look, as long as I'm president, they can't
12:37touch me. So he's going to want to do it. He'll see how things obviously are going in the country.
12:44But if that's the case, then I expect that the Supreme Court will be given the case.
12:47It's going to be taken very seriously. And to your point, I mean, no one would have thought
12:53after January 6th, after all of the legal challenges President Trump faced, that he would
13:00then be elected, win the popular vote in November. It was the biggest historical or biggest comeback
13:07of arguably in modern history. Do you think if the Supreme Court offers their opinion now on this,
13:14do you think that's enough for President Trump to kind of back down on even commenting on running
13:19for a third term? You know, he is. No, no. I mean, he'll interpret that as that's just a starting
13:26point for negotiation. But I think it would still be a valuable signal for the country that if they
13:34did that and it made it clear, you know, we're going to oppose the law here and he's not to do this.
13:42This is a cut and dry case. And we're going to let you know now. But no, that won't stop him.
13:47You know, he'll bring the case. But at least people will have expectations that, no, this is not going
13:54to go the way that other cases have gone that are clearly based on ideology. We know what to expect,
14:01which I think we think would be healthy at this point. But look, this has all been a shock to me
14:07for decades, for well, since he's got into this. So who knows what will happen?
14:13Well, there's certainly a lot to look out for. And per usual, I always appreciate your insight.
14:18You are welcome back anytime. Clifford Winston, thank you for joining me.
14:21See you again.
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