00:00Asteroids are a tangible and worrying threat.
00:04Some reach a size large enough to cause terrible consequences
00:08in case of impact with our planet.
00:10Among them, one in particular is the one these last days.
00:141942, Apophis.
00:17A recent study has revealed that a low probability
00:20subsists for it to collide with Earth
00:22during its approach in 2029.
00:25But a question arises.
00:26Will the asteroid survive this encounter?
00:29Apophis, also known as Apep,
00:31the Egyptian deity embodying chaos and destruction,
00:34is today one of the most feared asteroids.
00:37Discovered in 2004,
00:39this space body measures about 340 meters in diameter,
00:42a height comparable to that of the Eiffel Tower.
00:45Because of its dimensions and its trajectory planned for 2029,
00:49astronomers consider it as a potentially dangerous object.
00:53A category grouping asteroids and other celestial bodies
00:57approaching Earth and having a size large enough
01:00to require rigorous surveillance.
01:02To date, scientists consider the risk of impact to be extremely low,
01:06less than a chance of a billion.
01:08It therefore seems reasonable to say that our planet is not in danger.
01:12The asteroid, on the other hand, could suffer.
01:15When Apophis hits Earth in 2029,
01:18the intense gravitational attraction it will undergo
01:21could shake it with such brutality
01:24that it will experience a phenomenon comparable to an earthquake,
01:27a real astro-seism, in a way.
01:31The force exerted by this gravitational interaction
01:34could cause the fragmentation of certain parts of its surface,
01:38projecting these debris into space.
01:40Although this event is not synonymous with total disintegration,
01:44it is very likely that Apophis will lose a considerable amount of matter
01:48during its passage near our planet.
01:51Some of these fragments could remain in orbit around the asteroid,
01:54while others could drift to the edges of space.
01:58In the long run, such a disruption would affect its rotation,
02:02modifying its movement or inducing an unprecedented inclination.
02:05This phenomenon arouses great interest among researchers,
02:08because it could offer valuable lessons
02:10on how asteroids react
02:12when subjected to powerful gravitational forces.
02:16Let us now return to Earth,
02:18although we have never really left our planet.
02:20It turns out that even if this asteroid does not have the necessary dimensions
02:23to cause a massive extinction,
02:25like the one that destroyed the dinosaurs,
02:28it remains powerful enough to inflict major damage
02:31to a metropolis in the event of an impact.
02:34It could also lead to global climatic disturbances.
02:37For now, forecasts indicate that Apophis will hit our planet
02:41at a distance of around 32,000 km.
02:43This remains extremely close to the cosmic scale,
02:46but far enough to avoid a collision.
02:49To better situate this distance,
02:51it represents less than a tenth of the gap separating the Earth from the Moon.
02:54Thus, even if an impact seems unlikely,
02:57this passage could disturb some satellites in terrestrial orbit,
03:00which will be much closer to Apophis than we are.
03:03The key element to remember
03:05is that the risk of collision could not be completely ruled out before several years.
03:09As the asteroid approaches,
03:11astronomers will closely monitor the evolution of its trajectory
03:16to ensure that it is not deviated by the effect of the Earth's gravitational attraction.
03:20In reality, this force could even induce major transformations
03:24within Apophis itself.
03:26Although Apophis does not directly threaten the survival of humanity,
03:29an impact with the Earth would nevertheless cause serious consequences.
03:33The impact could destroy an entire city,
03:36and the climatic disturbances that would result
03:39could compromise agriculture for several years.
03:42It would certainly not be a planetary-scale cataclysm,
03:45but these repercussions would be far from negligible.
03:48Apophis is not the only celestial threat to be monitored.
03:52Scientists are constantly scrutinizing the sky
03:55in search of other asteroids likely to represent a danger.
03:59And, thanks to recent technological advances,
04:02astronomers are able to detect and track these objects
04:05from considerable distances.
04:07An innovative approach is to observe meteor showers.
04:11These are actually generated by long-period comets
04:14that have been revolving around the Sun for centuries,
04:17even millennia.
04:19As they pass near our star,
04:21they leave dust particles and rocky fragments in their sieges,
04:25which, when they cross the Earth's orbit,
04:27give birth to these sparkling rains.
04:30Scientists examine various parameters related to these phenomena,
04:34including their speed, direction, and origin.
04:38These analyses allow us to identify the asteroid or comet of origin
04:42and, above all, anticipate the trajectory of certain celestial objects
04:46that are dangerous long before they threaten our planet.
04:49The Legacy Survey of Space and Time project,
04:52which will be conducted by the Vera Rubin Observatory in Chile,
04:55promises to strengthen its detection capabilities.
04:57Astronomers plan to elaborate a precise map of the sky
05:01by highlighting the areas where these meteor showers
05:04are most likely to occur.
05:06Thanks to these advances,
05:08it will be possible to determine which asteroids
05:10could pose a long-term threat to the Earth,
05:13thus offering a sufficient delay to design intervention strategies.
05:17However, even today,
05:19several of these celestial bodies pose a serious threat.
05:22Let's look at a few of them.
05:24Let's take the example of the asteroid Bennu,
05:26discovered by astronomers in 1989.
05:29This massive rocky block, rich in carbon,
05:32measures about 500 meters in diameter,
05:34a size equivalent to that of the Shanghai World Financial Center.
05:38To date, it is the largest known threat to our planet.
05:42However, there is no need to panic.
05:45A possible collision would not have taken place long before.
05:48According to the calculations of scientists,
05:50the probability that Bennu will hit Earth on September 24, 2182
05:54is 0.037%,
05:57a chance of 2,700.
05:59If such an impact were to occur,
06:01the released energy would be of such magnitude
06:03that it could shave off a vast area.
06:05Fortunately, an impact from Bennu
06:07would not put the entire planet at risk.
06:10However, if this asteroid came to hit a city,
06:13the damage would be catastrophic.
06:15Recently, NASA's Osiris-Rex probe
06:18took samples from its surface,
06:21allowing scientists to learn more
06:23about its composition and behavior.
06:26Another asteroid is also worth our attention.
06:28Discovered in 1950,
06:30it was only observed again in 2000.
06:33Current calculations indicate
06:35an extremely low probability,
06:37a chance of 34,500,
06:39that it will hit Earth on March 16, 1880.
06:42In more than 800 years,
06:44so much to say that I do not do it personally.
06:46In the event of an impact,
06:47the released energy would be colossal,
06:49capable of causing a catastrophe of planetary magnitude,
06:52with a potential risk of extinction of humanity.
06:55Another asteroid,
06:56spotted much more recently,
06:58is also worth the attention of researchers.
07:00It was discovered in October 2023
07:03and has a small probability,
07:05a chance of 181,000,
07:07to hit Earth on October 10, 1819.
07:10Impressive, they calculated this on the next day.
07:13If a collision were to take place,
07:15the released energy would be enough
07:17to cause devastation on vast areas.
07:19Despite the weakness of this risk,
07:21it remains an object to be monitored.
07:23Here is now an asteroid
07:25which is classified as lost,
07:27because it has not been seen since 2007,
07:29which is not surprising,
07:30as its trajectory is uncertain.
07:32According to NASA,
07:33there is a small possibility,
07:35about 1 in 10 million,
07:37that it will hit Earth on March 3, 2030.
07:40If such an event occurred,
07:42the impact would cause considerable damage
07:44at the regional scale.
07:46Finally, a last vagabond in space
07:48deserves to be mentioned.
07:49His observation dates back to 1979
07:52and scientists estimate
07:54that there is a small probability,
07:561 in 1.8 million,
07:58that it will hit our planet on December 14, 2013.
08:01Note in your agendas,
08:03if the impact were to occur,
08:05the damage would be significant,
08:07but humanity should survive.
08:09Although the probability of a collision
08:11with an asteroid remains low,
08:13the consequences of such an event
08:14could be disastrous.
08:16This is why researchers are doubling their efforts
08:18to monitor these objects
08:19and anticipate their trajectory.
08:21Thanks to technological progress,
08:23we are now able to locate
08:25the menacing objects earlier
08:27and follow their evolution with more precision,
08:29which leaves us with a margin of manoeuvre
08:31to develop protection strategies.
Comments