00:00The United States has laid bare to its NATO allies that its primary security focus is
00:12no longer Europe.
00:14It's dashed hopes of Ukraine joining NATO and said that Ukrainian aspirations to return
00:19to the 2014 borders before the Russian invasion are unrealistic.
00:24For the Europe Conversation, I catch up with the Lithuanian defence minister, Dovile Šakuliene,
00:29who says Europe is at the beginning of a very difficult process.
00:33Well, Minister, we now know what the Trump administration says about the fate of Ukraine
00:40on a number of issues, in particular Ukraine's membership of NATO and Ukraine's demand that
00:46it return to the borders of pre-2014.
00:50The US is saying that is unrealistic.
00:52What is your response?
00:54Well, first of all, I think that there were quite a few very significant messages that
01:00were sent today, and some of them are unpleasant, yet true, regarding financing, regarding contribution.
01:12But about what you said about Ukraine, Lithuania thinks that it's not questionable that the
01:19borders are not questionable, that our international agreements, international treaties that say
01:25very clearly that borders are unquestionable, hold true.
01:31Also choice of the nations to join any defence alliances that they deem to be suitable for
01:38them is also unquestionable.
01:41Ukraine does have its own choice to join NATO, but America has said that as a member of NATO,
01:47it won't allow it.
01:48It's going to refuse it.
01:49One of the demands of Vladimir Putin before the full-scale invasion of 2022, the US has
01:56essentially granted that now.
01:58Well, as I said, we believe that it's a choice of every nation to initiate joining of any
02:08alliance that we deem acceptable for them.
02:12And therefore, this is a discussion that needs also to be framed very clearly.
02:19Ukraine has its own volition to express wish to be in any alliance.
02:25Within the alliance, of course, we can have discussions that may be easy or tough, in
02:31this case very tough, yet it does not change the fact that the only sustainable long-term
02:38solution of Ukraine's safety is membership in NATO.
02:44OK, so do you feel that Ukraine is now in a stronger position, having been told in public
02:51that it's unrealistic to expect to be a NATO member and that any troops in Ukraine won't
02:59have NATO security guarantees?
03:01I think we are in the beginning of a very difficult process where we will have to find
03:08the specific ways to generate strength.
03:12What is a good part of the message is that peace through strength was reiterated all
03:19around the room.
03:20What does that mean, though, if you've just weakened Ukraine's position?
03:24As I said, I think we are in the beginning of a difficult conversation.
03:27And one of the elements which is going to be critical, and as I understand also there
03:32is an agreement in the room that it's necessary, is our own capabilities.
03:38Because how can we sustainably help Ukraine if our own defence capabilities are being
03:45developed slower than that of the aggressor?
03:49The size of Ukrainian army and the size of our defence industry, of our own defence capabilities
03:59from, well, I'm not going to go into details in this format, but anyhow, they are not matching
04:08the speed of Russian military industry, of Russian transition from peacetime to wartime
04:14economy, of Russian assembly of troops at quite a threatening speed.
04:20So what do you think should happen now?
04:23First of all, I think that processing of information needs to happen as soon as possible, that
04:31talks are completely irrelevant right now, funds and production is what is really relevant.
04:41Because as I said, if we really want to stand strong by Ukraine, and if we really want to
04:47stand strong in the face of Russia's preparation for the next stages of imperial expansion,
04:53then we need to be armed to our teeth, and probably more.
04:57And that needs to start happening quite soon.
04:59And therefore, in Europe, we need to have a discussion about swift and significant investment
05:06in defence of all NATO borders, not in 2028, but now, by 2026, we need to have instruments
05:14that are capable of ensuring that all the states that are on the borders of NATO are
05:20fully protected.
05:21Because if infringement happens on one inch of the territory of, I don't know, Lithuania,
05:27or Latvia, or Finland, then everybody falls.
05:30So how does that happen when stocks are low now, some would say depleted pretty badly,
05:36production is pretty slow at the moment, and Donald Trump is saying that NATO countries
05:41have to move to 5%.
05:42I mean, Lithuania is doing very well at 4%, but there are countries like Canada, Italy,
05:46Spain, who aren't even hitting 2%.
05:49But we're going to do from 5% to 6% from 2026 to 2030.
05:54And it's not easy.
05:55It's actually very intense for us.
05:58But we understand what is at stake.
06:00And also, the dynamics of GDP growth is quite different in different parts of Europe.
06:07So we need to take what's good and use it.
06:10And one of the things that is good is also our industry, investing in our industry and
06:17making defence industry a very significant element of our economy growth.
06:23Because if we had, in my opinion, the most humiliating situation when all Europe was
06:28trying to find 1 million ammo rounds for Ukraine, all of Europe, that cannot be repeated.
06:35What do you think, though, Vladimir Putin will be thinking about today when he hears
06:39that NATO membership is off the table for Ukraine, despite the June summit in Washington
06:44D.C. saying that there is an indestructible bridge for Ukraine towards NATO membership.
06:49It's irreversible.
06:51Honestly, saying what is happening in Mr. Putin's head, I don't really care because
06:56he is living in an illusion.
06:58And in his opinion, Russia's borders stop nowhere.
07:02I care more about how fast we are going to transform our economies, how fast production
07:08of ammo and weapons and platforms related to our defence is going to develop in Europe,
07:14and how fast we are going to be in a position of actual strength ourselves.
07:19What was the response by defence ministers to that announcement by Pete Hegseth when
07:23he said no NATO membership for Ukraine, going back to 2014 borders is unrealistic?
07:31What was the reaction from defence ministers, including, of course, the Ukrainian defence
07:34minister?
07:35Well, since that was a closed meeting, I would not rather share details, but the general
07:43message was very clear that Europe has contributed very significantly to support Ukraine, and
07:51it is going to continue.
07:55Another message was that Europe and United States need each other, and that Russia and
08:01China are going to coordinate, and therefore Europe and Indo-Pacific are inseparably related,
08:08and therefore we do need to think about certain team action.
08:11As I said, I think that we are opening a very difficult chapter.
08:14You think the Trump administration has made its decision, and it's going to take a very
08:19hard line when it comes to Ukraine?
08:22I think it's going to depend a lot on ability of Europe to pick up the pace.
08:28What about that?
08:29Because we've heard Mark Rutte say that, you know, and Pete Hegseth said it today as well,
08:35that the ministers have to go back to their individual countries and explain to societies
08:39really what is at stake here, and potentially governments are going to have to shave off
08:43when it comes to maybe healthcare, education and other areas.
08:47I mean, where does this money come from, from a European perspective?
08:51What is Lithuania asking, let's say, the EU to do?
08:55When we look back at the pandemic period, we realize that in the face of existential
09:01crisis, Europe is able to think creatively, to generate funds quickly for significant
09:08investments into repair of situation, which is really bad.
09:13And therefore, now, if we got maybe a little additional nudge, to put it diplomatically,
09:20well, probably a kick in the back from our large partner in the NATO alliance, then maybe
09:26we will also be able to think creatively.
09:29And I wouldn't bash against each other healthcare and defense, because certainly we can find
09:36some methods that would allow us to accumulate funds quickly, and then pay off for this investment
09:44in our future.
09:45Well, that's probably what Hegseth said.
09:47It's investment in your own future, and then pay it off in decades.
09:51So you've got common borrowing from the EU?
09:53I think that's one of the options, and one of the options that would be also feasible.
09:58And other options are being discussed by our presidents, by our prime ministers, by our
10:03finance ministers.
10:05Our own Lithuanian finance minister and prime minister are also very active in developing
10:11certain proposals regarding certain joint solutions.
10:14Because as I said, if we all understand that protection of our borders is our joint interest,
10:21we can manage, Europe can manage.
10:24And it's not about, I don't know, just shaving off, as you said, healthcare and education.
10:29It's about using your brains and doing it now.
10:32Just before I let you go, for those countries or societies who maybe don't appreciate exactly
10:37the threat of Russia, particularly for a country like Lithuania, which in living memory has
10:42suffered from the Soviet Union, but also is geographically close to Russia, explain really
10:48what your concerns are about a belligerent Vladimir Putin, who's also been told that
10:54Ukraine won't get membership to NATO.
10:57What are your fears?
10:58Memories, probably.
11:00Because I come from a family that was persecuted by Russians.
11:03My mother was born in Siberia and barely survived.
11:06My family was imprisoned, tortured, murdered, and et cetera.
11:11We know that when Russians come, then your best case scenario is that you are imprisoned
11:17or deported, but most likely you will be raped, tortured, and murdered.
11:22And therefore, that is the threat that is actually looming over Europe right now.
11:27And if we understand that stopping the active front line in Ukraine means that Russia will
11:34immediately accelerate its accumulation of forces that it is gathering for the next imperial
11:41stage expansion, that means that we have a very short time period to get ready.
11:47Well, Dovile Šakelinie, Minister for Defence for Lithuania, thank you very much for joining
11:53us on the Europe Conversation.
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