Cattle market vodcast: why finished cattle prices are rising again

Farm Online

Shan Goodwin speaks with Nutrien livestock and wool manager for the Eastern Region, Adam Mountjoy.

Transcript

00:00Well young cattle prices are going down but feeder steers in the finished end are on the rise again.

00:04The eastern young cattle indicator has dipped nearly 18 cents in the past week.

00:09I'm with NewTrends Livestock and Wool Manager for the eastern region, Adam Mountjoy.

00:14Adam, how's 2025 travelling so far?

00:17Yeah we've had a really positive start to the commencement of 2025.

00:22Obviously we've seen our majority of our early weaner sales being completed and

00:28they got off to a really good start.

00:29We've certainly seen a downturn in pricing maybe the last week of January into the first

00:35week of February.

00:36I mean that was sheer weight of numbers I believe which has hit the market.

00:39Now starting to see with improved seasonal conditions in the north and the south getting

00:44ever closer to an autumn break, we may have actually found the bottom and prices are now

00:49starting to increase.

00:51I mean it'll traditionally follow what we're starting to see now with feeder rates and

00:57also prime cow rates this week.

01:00So we're looking at our exchange rate if you like.

01:03Our highlight of our week this far has been really around the slaughter rates for finished

01:08cattle and as you touched on earlier up to $3.30 for cows in places, live weight getting

01:12up towards $4 for heavyweight cattle.

01:15That's quite amazing really and what sentiment are you hearing from producers particularly

01:20with that finished end?

01:21Is there a lot of knowledge around the rails about the US situation and the demand coming

01:26out of there?

01:28There certainly is a lot of commentary and I guess that lends weight again to the heavy

01:31finished product and I think our industry at the moment is in a really sweet spot from

01:36a trading, from a breeding perspective.

01:38If we look back to what we've achieved from a weaner sale perspective, some of those calves

01:42making around $4 a kilo in the early days, we're starting to see that now equivalent

01:49or very close to in a feeder steer market.

01:51So we get a $4 for a 450 kilo weaner and $4 for a 300 kilo calf, that's a sensible

01:58trade.

01:59It's a reasonable reward for the breeder, leaves a bit in there for the backgrounder,

02:03the finisher and then eventually onto the processor and we start to see that processing

02:08demand really kick right now which is obviously pre-autumn and will only strengthen going

02:13into the winter is our call.

02:15Yep, that's terrific and Adam, the ABS released quarter four data this week showing we're

02:21definitely moving towards production and slaughter highs for 2025.

02:26Can you give us some commentary around that?

02:28Yeah, most definitely.

02:29I mean we were buoyed to read that report yesterday.

02:32So beef production obviously yesterday announced 2.57 million tonnes, that's 16% higher year

02:41on year so it's quite a stark increase in number.

02:45MLA reporting the slaughter number exceeding 6.7 million head.

02:50So the appetite is certainly there.

02:53You mentioned the US trade there earlier, the 90 CL prices is at an all-time high again

02:58of 1,064 cents so it's really adding to the demand.

03:03We see the US market now certainly touted as our highest export partner, their volumes

03:11increased 60% alone.

03:12So we're in pretty rare air at the moment for us a lot of those prices.

03:18That's brilliant.

03:20Thank you so much, Adam.

03:21We know you guys are dreadfully busy around the rails so we really appreciate you taking

03:26the time to share those insights with us today.

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