Why simply being Taiwanese could lead to war

DW (English)

Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged that "reunification" with Taiwan is "inevitable," but the island residents think otherwise.

Transcript

00:00This is a reality of China's threats to Taiwan.

00:06Record number of Chinese fighter jets and warships encircling the island democracy.

00:13China said these exercises were punishment for Taiwanese independence forces.

00:22And a direct response to this speech by Taiwan's president during National Day celebrations.

00:28The People's Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.

00:33It was the second round of Chinese military drills in 2024 around Taiwan, which Beijing

00:38claims as its sacred territory.

00:41Although Taiwan has governed itself for more than 70 years, few nations recognise it as

00:46a sovereign state.

00:56China calls Lai a dangerous separatist.

00:59And since he's entered office, cross-strait tensions have reached new heights.

01:04And Chinese intimidation has extended beyond just military means.

01:08We've seen a ratcheting up of pressure, no doubt, from Beijing, trying to make clear

01:14that the ultimate goal of unifying Taiwan with China is very much still the priority

01:20of Beijing.

01:21Part of this conflict is a question about identity, about being Taiwanese.

01:26But why is that threatening to China?

01:28And could it lead Beijing to take even more dramatic steps?

01:46In June this year, China sent a chill through Taiwan.

01:50Beijing announced a new interpretation to laws against separatists they believe are

01:54trying to split Taiwan from China.

01:56The maximum penalty for these crimes?

01:59Death.

02:00In September, activist Yang Jiyuan became the first Taiwanese person to be convicted

02:05under this new interpretation.

02:06A court in eastern China sentenced him to nine years in prison on charges of succession.

02:13This is Maggie Lewis.

02:14She is a professor of Chinese law at Seton Hall University in the US.

02:18He had very limited procedural rights, did not have access to a lawyer or other sort

02:23of standard rights of the accused.

02:26And moreover, his ultimate trial and sentencing was done behind closed doors.

02:31Yang is one of more than 800 Taiwanese people who have been detained or simply disappeared

02:35in China over the last 10 years.

02:38Some face separatist or other charges.

02:41That's according to Amnesty International.

02:44According to Beijing, offences punishable by death include advocating for Taiwan to

02:49be a member of international organisations that only sovereign countries can join.

02:54There's going to be a lot of guesswork here and everything's fine until it's not.

02:59And we don't know what will happen.

03:00Lai Ching-de has said nearly all of Taiwan's population could be subject to prosecution.

03:06That's unless they're willing to accept Chinese Communist Party rule over Taiwan.

03:12And what exactly is this dispute about?

03:15To answer that, we need some history.

03:21For the first half of the 20th century, Taiwan was a Japanese colony.

03:26When Japan lost World War II, it ceded Taiwan to the Republic of China under the Chinese

03:31Nationalist Party or KMT.

03:35But when the KMT lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the party fled to Taiwan.

03:42In Taipei, they established a temporary capital for the Republic of China or ROC, which remains

03:48Taiwan's official name to this day.

03:51The victors of that civil war, the Chinese Communist Party, established the People's

03:56Republic of China on the mainland that year.

04:01When the KMT arrived in Taiwan, they were concerned the people living there were not

04:05Chinese enough.

04:07So they enforced draconian policies to re-educate them on how to be what they considered properly

04:12Chinese.

04:14The KMT declared martial law in 1949, and for decades, governed Taiwan as an authoritarian

04:20state.

04:22This is Chen Cui-lien.

04:24She's a professor of Taiwanese history at National Taiwan University.

04:37Initially, China's seat in the United Nations was represented by Taipei as the Republic

05:02of China.

05:03But that changed in 1971, with Resolution 2758, which said that the People's Republic

05:09of China in Beijing was the only legitimate representative of China.

05:21Many countries then switched diplomatic recognition of China from Taipei to Beijing.

05:27Most significantly, the United States did in 1979.

05:31And that had a big impact on how people in Taiwan saw themselves.

05:50After the US switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing, it didn't completely break ties

05:54with Taiwan.

05:56US lawmakers passed the Taiwan Relations Act to define the new unofficial relationship

06:01with Taipei.

06:03The act says that the US must provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself if threatened

06:08militarily.

06:09It also encouraged Taiwan to take steps toward democratization.

06:15Martial law was eventually lifted in Taiwan in 1987, driven by a growing sense of Taiwanese

06:21identity separate from China.

06:24That allowed more open discussion of the more oppressive episodes of KMT rule, including

06:29the 228 incident in 1947, in which thousands of local Taiwanese were killed.

06:36In 1996, Taiwan held its first direct presidential election.

06:42And since then, democracy itself has become a central part of Taiwanese people's identity.

06:51Today, more than 60% of Taiwan's population view themselves as solely Taiwanese.

06:57As a democracy, power has alternated between Taiwan's two main political parties, the KMT

07:24and the now-governing Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP.

07:29And relations with China continue to dominate elections.

07:33Both main parties say they want to preserve Taiwan's ambiguous status quo, but look to

07:38achieve that by different means.

07:41The KMT, once staunchly anti-communist, now favours closer ties with Beijing.

07:47Whereas the DPP is wary of Chinese influence and advocates keeping Beijing at arm's length.

07:58So why is the conflict getting worse now?

08:01Let's outline the key players.

08:03First we've got Lai Ching-de.

08:04He's Taiwan's current president.

08:07Lai comes from the ruling DPP, the Taiwanese party Beijing views as separatist.

08:13His win in the 2024 election marked the first time any party in Taiwan's democratic history

08:19has won at three successive elections.

08:22The DPP underlay says that Taiwan is already a sovereign country and so doesn't need to

08:27declare formal independence, a red line for Beijing.

08:41Then there's Xi Jinping, the Chinese president.

08:44He believes Taiwan is a province of China and has no right to call itself an independent

08:48country.

08:49He's described reunifying Taiwan with China as one of Beijing's core goals, one that he's

08:55suggested he hopes to achieve while leader.

08:59For many in Taiwan, Hong Kong offers a troubling vision for their own future.

09:04Beijing has pointed to their one country, two systems model in Hong Kong as an example

09:08of how to reunify Taiwan with the mainland.

09:12But the suppression of protests in Hong Kong means most Taiwanese don't have faith their

09:17autonomy would be preserved under Beijing's rule.

09:21If a political solution fails, Xi has reserved the right to use military force.

09:26But the Chinese leader says any military action would only be directed at a minority of Taiwan's

09:32population.

09:33Few people in Taiwan would identify as a separatist, but Xi's definition would apply to much more

09:55than a minority.

09:56More than 80% of Taiwanese want to maintain some form of the status quo, in which Taiwan's

10:02people can decide their future.

10:23But that status quo would still fall foul of Beijing's red lines.

10:28Chen Yujie is an assistant research professor at Academia Sinica in Taiwan.

10:33For Taiwan, it's very hard to navigate.

10:36And therefore we see Taiwanese would say we want to maintain a status quo, which is to

10:42me always a code word for, we just want to be independent, just leave us be.

10:51That's why the problem has become so intractable.

10:54China says reunifying Taiwan is inevitable.

10:57But more and more Taiwanese people have a political identity that Beijing is unwilling

11:02to accept.

11:04This is Wen-Ti Song.

11:05He's a non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.

11:09So what we're seeing is a very slow fall in the relationship between the two sides.

11:14They still struggle to come to terms on what's the rightful political foundation on which

11:19to build mutual trust.

11:21For the rest of the world, a conflict over Taiwan would have an enormous impact.

11:26If China invades Taiwan, it could take control of the global semiconductor industry.

11:32Beijing could also project power around the region, emboldening China to take stronger

11:37action in territorial disputes with other countries, like with the Philippines in the

11:42South China Sea.

11:44Many US officials believe it would also bring an end to American dominance of the Indo-Pacific,

11:49gravely threatening the future of democracy in Asia.

11:53But for Taiwanese themselves, a Chinese invasion would alter every aspect of their lives.

11:59Once Taiwan is absorbed and annexed to the PRC, democracy can no longer exist.

12:07So the world will lose a democratic stronghold in Asia.

12:13Great loss for democratic countries would be losing a like-minded partner who share

12:21the same values of protecting human rights and democracy.

12:26That also happens to have a great strategic and economic interest to this democratic alliance.

12:36So how do Taiwanese parties hope tensions can be eased?

12:40We've heard from the ruling DPP, but for Taiwan's main opposition, the KMT, more communication

12:46is key.

13:00The last president from the KMT, Ma Ying-jeou, has said that Taiwan shouldn't raise its defence

13:06budget because it could provoke China.

13:09China's Beijing ramps up military intimidation.

13:32But some experts believe even with this approach, China's threats to Taiwan won't disappear.

13:39More than that, they say partisan debate in Taiwan about its identity could limit international support.

13:46We do need a bipartisan support in Taiwan on this very important issue of Taiwan's sovereignty

13:53and separation from the PRC, but we don't see that right now and that's dangerous.

13:59An October 2024 poll suggested that the majority of Taiwanese don't believe that China will

14:04invade in the next five years.

14:07That's despite some US officials saying that China could attack by 2027.

14:12I think we are likely to see more violent theory coming out of Beijing, of course.

14:27This is a dangerous time.

14:30Taiwan is doing its best to escalate the tension without losing our own identity and sovereignty.

14:39Modern Taiwanese identity is a product of its tumultuous history.

14:44From colonial rule, to an authoritarian regime, and now a vibrant democracy.

14:51What comes next?

14:53Xi has said what he calls the Taiwan question shouldn't be passed down to the next generation.

15:00And is there anything that Taiwan and the international community can do to stop him

15:05providing the answer?

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