National security expert says President Xi no longer refers to ‘peaceful reunification’ of Taiwan

ABC NEWS (Australia)

Chinese President Xi Jinping has renewed calls for unification with Taiwan in his New Year address. The comments come after days of Chinese live-fire exercises around Taiwan. The military drills forced Taiwan to cancel dozens of domestic flights and dispatch jets and warships to monitor. Taiwan has rejected the mainland's claims that it's part of territorial China. President Xi says he believes reunification is inevitable. Jennifer Parker is a national security expert at the Australian National University and offers her analysis.

Transcript

00:00Look, I think the comments that Xi Jinping made about reunification of Taiwan being unstoppable

00:06are consistent with the things that he's been saying since his tenure, you know, over 10 years

00:12now. There's a point, though, that's changed in the last couple of years. So previously,

00:17Chinese officials would refer to the peaceful reunification of Taiwan being their goal,

00:22trying to highlight that it wasn't about military takeover of Taiwan. Over the last couple of years,

00:27we've seen the term peaceful reunification not used and just talking about the unstoppable

00:31reunification. So I think this really reaffirms Xi Jinping's aim of reuniting Taiwan or reuniting,

00:39in his terms, Taiwan with China and really highlighting that they have the military

00:44capability to do that by force if necessary, which is consistent really coming off the back of two

00:49days of drills where they rehearsed taking Taiwan by force. Well, exactly. This is what we saw,

00:55I suppose, in those drills earlier this week. You talked there about sort of the change in

01:02phrasing when it comes to this so-called reunification of China and Taiwan. How much of an escalation

01:10physically are we seeing now with those drills? How much of an escalation were they this week

01:17compared to previous Chinese activity around Taiwan? Well, these drills are quite significant.

01:23They're certainly the largest and most complex drills China has conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan.

01:29And it's been part of a growing trend. So, you know, we know that President Trump said during the

01:34week China does this all the time. That's not quite true. In 2022, China did its large joint exercise

01:40around Taiwan in response to Nancy Pelosi, the then US Speaker of the House visit. Since then,

01:46we've seen about two of these exercises a year. But every time we see these exercises,

01:51they grow in the number of assets contributing to that, so ships and aircraft, and the complexity of

01:57that. So, this iteration of the exercise, and really, I mean, exercise undermines really what it

02:01is. It very much is a rehearsal. It showed China pretending to blockade ports. It had rocket firing,

02:09so firing rockets that landed within the contiguous zone, so 24 nautical miles of the north and south of

02:16Taiwan, exercising the strikes on Taiwan, and really kind of coming in line with a strategic

02:24communications plan from China, or a propaganda plan that showed posters of China punching Taiwan,

02:32firing at Taiwan. It was a really aggressive exercise. It involved the army, navy, rocket force,

02:38air force, and the Coast Guard of China. So, certainly the most comprehensive. And it really does show

02:44how China has developed this massive military capability to take Taiwan by force if they

02:51chose to do so. And the US Pentagon recently put out a report about two weeks ago that talked about

02:56China's capability. They do this every year. And they highlighted in that report that they still

03:01believe that China has a goal for their military, a modernisation goal, to be able to take Taiwan by

03:06force by 2027 if they choose to do so.

03:09And so, Jen, in your view, does that indicate, you know, are we likely to see an invasion of Taiwan

03:16by China this year?

03:19Look, this is a really difficult question. I think that despite the fact that China and Xi Jinping in

03:25his New Year's Eve speech is not referring to the peaceful reunification anymore, I still think it is

03:30part of China's long-term strategy to try and reunify Taiwan by other means than military if they can.

03:36The challenge is that as we're seeing in domestic politics in Taiwan, it is looking increasingly

03:43unlikely that that could ever happen peacefully. Now, if China makes the assessment that it can't

03:49happen peacefully, then I think they will do it militarily. And we're seeing the design of their

03:53forces. So, investment in amphibious ships and specifically amphibious ships used to bridge

03:59the beaches around Taiwan, which are generally quite shallow. So, specifically being designed

04:04for that mission. So, I think the chances of military action around Taiwan by China are increasingly

04:12likely, although not inevitable, but it's something we need to be deeply concerned about.

04:17Jen, we've also heard this morning from Taiwan's president saying he would try everything he could

04:24to protect the nation and defend democratic and free way of life.

04:29How prepared is Taiwan to defend itself in the case of, you know, military action by China?

04:38Look, Taiwan has a number of kind of internal domestic issues where they've struggled to get

04:43their recent defence budget through and things like that. But I think Taiwan is increasingly focused

04:47on this mission of being able to defend the island. Its military capability is quite old. Notably,

04:54in fact, about two weeks before these drills commenced, the US announced its largest $1.1 billion

05:01of military aid for Taiwan to help them get greater missile capability and drone capabilities to try and

05:08defend the island. But I don't think that if Taiwan is invaded or blockaded, so we're trying to stop

05:15merchant vessels coming in to resupply Taiwan, I don't think it'll be just Taiwan defending itself.

05:20I think that there are a number of countries that would come to Taiwan's aid. And to be honest,

05:24I think that if China made the decision to take Taiwan militarily, this would be a regional

05:29conflict quite quickly.

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