00:00Look, I think the comments that Xi Jinping made about reunification of Taiwan being unstoppable
00:06are consistent with the things that he's been saying since his tenure, you know, over 10 years
00:12now. There's a point, though, that's changed in the last couple of years. So previously,
00:17Chinese officials would refer to the peaceful reunification of Taiwan being their goal,
00:22trying to highlight that it wasn't about military takeover of Taiwan. Over the last couple of years,
00:27we've seen the term peaceful reunification not used and just talking about the unstoppable
00:31reunification. So I think this really reaffirms Xi Jinping's aim of reuniting Taiwan or reuniting,
00:39in his terms, Taiwan with China and really highlighting that they have the military
00:44capability to do that by force if necessary, which is consistent really coming off the back of two
00:49days of drills where they rehearsed taking Taiwan by force. Well, exactly. This is what we saw,
00:55I suppose, in those drills earlier this week. You talked there about sort of the change in
01:02phrasing when it comes to this so-called reunification of China and Taiwan. How much of an escalation
01:10physically are we seeing now with those drills? How much of an escalation were they this week
01:17compared to previous Chinese activity around Taiwan? Well, these drills are quite significant.
01:23They're certainly the largest and most complex drills China has conducted in the vicinity of Taiwan.
01:29And it's been part of a growing trend. So, you know, we know that President Trump said during the
01:34week China does this all the time. That's not quite true. In 2022, China did its large joint exercise
01:40around Taiwan in response to Nancy Pelosi, the then US Speaker of the House visit. Since then,
01:46we've seen about two of these exercises a year. But every time we see these exercises,
01:51they grow in the number of assets contributing to that, so ships and aircraft, and the complexity of
01:57that. So, this iteration of the exercise, and really, I mean, exercise undermines really what it
02:01is. It very much is a rehearsal. It showed China pretending to blockade ports. It had rocket firing,
02:09so firing rockets that landed within the contiguous zone, so 24 nautical miles of the north and south of
02:16Taiwan, exercising the strikes on Taiwan, and really kind of coming in line with a strategic
02:24communications plan from China, or a propaganda plan that showed posters of China punching Taiwan,
02:32firing at Taiwan. It was a really aggressive exercise. It involved the army, navy, rocket force,
02:38air force, and the Coast Guard of China. So, certainly the most comprehensive. And it really does show
02:44how China has developed this massive military capability to take Taiwan by force if they
02:51chose to do so. And the US Pentagon recently put out a report about two weeks ago that talked about
02:56China's capability. They do this every year. And they highlighted in that report that they still
03:01believe that China has a goal for their military, a modernisation goal, to be able to take Taiwan by
03:06force by 2027 if they choose to do so.
03:09And so, Jen, in your view, does that indicate, you know, are we likely to see an invasion of Taiwan
03:16by China this year?
03:19Look, this is a really difficult question. I think that despite the fact that China and Xi Jinping in
03:25his New Year's Eve speech is not referring to the peaceful reunification anymore, I still think it is
03:30part of China's long-term strategy to try and reunify Taiwan by other means than military if they can.
03:36The challenge is that as we're seeing in domestic politics in Taiwan, it is looking increasingly
03:43unlikely that that could ever happen peacefully. Now, if China makes the assessment that it can't
03:49happen peacefully, then I think they will do it militarily. And we're seeing the design of their
03:53forces. So, investment in amphibious ships and specifically amphibious ships used to bridge
03:59the beaches around Taiwan, which are generally quite shallow. So, specifically being designed
04:04for that mission. So, I think the chances of military action around Taiwan by China are increasingly
04:12likely, although not inevitable, but it's something we need to be deeply concerned about.
04:17Jen, we've also heard this morning from Taiwan's president saying he would try everything he could
04:24to protect the nation and defend democratic and free way of life.
04:29How prepared is Taiwan to defend itself in the case of, you know, military action by China?
04:38Look, Taiwan has a number of kind of internal domestic issues where they've struggled to get
04:43their recent defence budget through and things like that. But I think Taiwan is increasingly focused
04:47on this mission of being able to defend the island. Its military capability is quite old. Notably,
04:54in fact, about two weeks before these drills commenced, the US announced its largest $1.1 billion
05:01of military aid for Taiwan to help them get greater missile capability and drone capabilities to try and
05:08defend the island. But I don't think that if Taiwan is invaded or blockaded, so we're trying to stop
05:15merchant vessels coming in to resupply Taiwan, I don't think it'll be just Taiwan defending itself.
05:20I think that there are a number of countries that would come to Taiwan's aid. And to be honest,
05:24I think that if China made the decision to take Taiwan militarily, this would be a regional
05:29conflict quite quickly.
Comments