Breaking Down the CFP Semifinal Matchups with Bill Bender

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00:00We always love hooking up with our national college football correspondent, Bill Bender,

00:04from the Sporting News on Coast to Coast. He's a regular here. Good to see you, Billy.

00:08I have to say, you know, I was just going through it with you. Let's just,

00:12so the fans can understand where I'm coming from here. When Penn State played SMU,

00:17they kicked their ass. When Penn State played Boise, they kicked their ass.

00:24Because they are better than those teams. When they are on equal footing or better than a team,

00:30which I think they are on equal footing with Notre Dame, they can win the game. It's when

00:36they play teams that are better than them, flat out, on paper, knowing, going in. When they went

00:42to play Ohio State, the game was in Happy Valley, didn't matter. They knew they weren't as good as

00:48Ohio State, and they lost. They said, oh, Franklin never beats top five teams or anyone

00:54that's highly ranked. He's the worst coach ever. I don't believe that. I just know that if they

00:59play a team better than them, they lose. But when they play teams they're as good as, they can beat

01:04anybody. Well, you're starting to sound like you're talking about my Green Bay Packers.

01:09Is that who we're talking about? Or is it Penn? That's this year, anyway. As far as Penn State,

01:15you're exactly right. I mean, you look at this team, and over the last three seasons,

01:19they've lost exactly one game as an underdog. One. Or one game as a favorite, I'm sorry.

01:25One to Ole Miss in a peach bowl. And they've won one game as an underdog. And they're one in five,

01:31or they've covered one game as an underdog, 0-6 against the spread. So, it's really tough to pick

01:37Penn State in this situation. But this game still feels like a coin flip to me, you know, because

01:44Penn State's right there with them. They do some things that Notre Dame does well, and vice versa.

01:49Both teams like to run the football. Drew Aller has to be lights out in this game, can't turn the

01:54football over. And if those things happen, then the Nittany Lions are going to have a chance to

01:59win here and get a chance for James Franklin to play in a national championship game.

02:04You know, so I heard someone today say that this kid, Riley Leonard, has to be able to throw the

02:09ball. Well, I haven't seen that yet. I haven't seen him throw the ball. To who? He didn't throw

02:17anything. He ran for more yards than he threw for in the game against Georgia. I thought he played

02:24a great game, smart game, and I thought he ran the ball well and effectively. And he came up big

02:29running. But I've never seen that guy throw the ball effectively. And I got to be honest, I've

02:36seen Aller throw picks. I've seen him throw plenty of picks. Right. Well, and, Scott, Riley Leonard

02:43doesn't throw the ball down the field. They didn't throw a pass of 20 yards or more against Georgia,

02:47so they're going to keep the short passing game. I don't think they're going to change that. Whether

02:51or not Abdul Carter plays or not, they'll get the ball to Jordan Faison. They're going to try to run

02:55the ball. They use Riley Leonard like an old school fullback with the 10 to 12 carries,

03:01five yards of carry. He's basically a fullback in a quarterback's body that throws it a little bit.

03:05And for Notre Dame, it's just not turning the ball over. If they don't turn the ball over and

03:10they pick up one or two turnovers against Penn State, they're going to be in business in this

03:14game. I think their defense is somehow underrated with how they force turnovers, play on that side

03:21of the ball and continue to do the things that they're doing with Marcus Freeman and Al Golden,

03:25the defensive coordinator. You know, I remember when Al Golden was the Miami head coach. All

03:33right. And now look at him. Let me ask you this question. You saw Brian Kelly leave South Bend

03:41thinking that he had greener pastures down in the SEC in the bayou at Baton Rouge with LSU.

03:48And the bottom line is it's been a nightmare for him as far as I'm concerned down there at LSU,

03:54because believe me, if he loses two games next year, they're going to call for his head.

03:58I mean, they're going to they're going to call for his head. The fans aren't going to have it.

04:01So here comes Marcus Freeman. He gets this job and he walks into this job in South Bend and look

04:08what he's done with it. Not only is he won, he's playing in the national semifinal and they just

04:14gave him a fat new extension. Who's laughing now and who made the worst decision? I think Brian

04:20Kelly leaving South Bend was the biggest mistake of his life. Well, that and look at how NIL has

04:26changed the landscape over the last two years. And I know you appreciate this like I do. I'm an

04:31Ohio kid. Michigan wins the last national championship. And this year you have three

04:36of the traditional Midwest slash Rust Belt programs. I don't know if you consider Penn

04:41State Midwest, but they're in the Big Ten. So they count Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State

04:47doing what they've been able to do. And because they have good NIL, because they have good talent

04:52development, they have good coaches. And I think part of it is they have good offensive and

04:56defensive lines as well. I was talking to Adam Brenneman about that yesterday. That was the

05:01point he made that they have these good interior lines. Michigan was like that last year and

05:06defense as well. Defense wins championships. Now the four teams in this playoff ranked in the top

05:12five in scoring defense. The only other one was Ole Miss and the Rebels. Maybe they had a case

05:17about getting in the playoff when you consider that statistic. Yeah, that's very interesting, Bill.

05:23No doubt about it. Now let's shift gears. And I want to ask you about, because I get that opportunity

05:30today only, Texas and Ohio State basically playing in Texas, in Arlington, at Jerry's World, a home

05:39game against the vaunted Buckeyes, who everyone has been suckered by. Everyone now after what they

05:46did to Oregon at the Rose Bowl, everyone and their brothers betting on them to win the national

05:50championship. They're like, oh my God, they're a pro team. They can't be stopped. Texas has them

05:56tomorrow night at home, basically 100,000 fans. You can't tell me it's not going to be 80,000

06:01Texas fans. I don't believe for one minute that when you saw the Rose Bowl, it was Buckeye,

06:06you had the Scarlet, and then you had the Green of Oregon. It was half and half like, you know,

06:13at Pasadena. That's not happening at Jerry's World. It's not going to be a half and half.

06:18I mean, it's going to be 80-20. I think 25, well, depending on the travel too. I mean,

06:24there's snow on the ground here in Ohio, and there's going to be some travel issues. I do

06:28think it will be a Texas partisan crowd, but Ohio State fans will show up. And you know who else is

06:34going to show up? A lot of five-star players. When you have 32 players between these teams, 32

06:40five-star guys, 20 on Ohio State, 12 on Texas. That's why I don't think it's going to be an easy

06:47cakewalk for Ohio State, provided Texas survives the first quarter, because Texas has dudes at

06:52every play level as well. And they have receivers, and they have guys on defense. I think this is

06:58going to be a fantastic football game that comes down to the fourth quarter, and whichever team it

07:02could be, a who-has-the-ball-last-type game would not be surprised. Who in the hell on Texas can

07:10stop Ibuka and this kid Smith? Well, I mean, they're going to try with Jaday Barron and Andrew

07:16Mokuba. A couple corners with five interceptions each, but Jeremiah Smith is out of this world

07:21right now. You know, the way he high points the ball, these comparisons to Terrell Owens,

07:26Julio Jones. You know who I actually compare him to? The last freshman I watched where I truly said

07:32this dude could play in the NFL right away. It wasn't Miles Garrett. It wasn't Jaday Vion Clowney.

07:38It was Adrian Peterson. Adrian Peterson's the last freshman I watched where I was like, yeah,

07:43I'm good. He can go play for the Cowboys now or whoever. And that's how I feel about Jeremiah

07:48Smith. I'm like, yeah, I'm good. He can play. But it's a little trickier with receivers,

07:53as you know. We haven't had a receiver get drafted number one since 1996.

07:57That kid is he could be he could start this weekend for any team in the wildcard and score

08:04two touchdowns. And speaking of such, your Packers, while we're at it, how do you think

08:10they're going to do against the Eagles at the link? Well, I didn't I didn't like how flat they

08:17came out against the Bears. They need to run the ball. I do think they're going to cover because

08:21they don't get blown out in playoff games, but they're setting me up for another heartache. I'm

08:26hoping Jordan Love plays. I hope they can slow down that running game. Very similar game to week

08:30one. There will be no heartache. There will be no letdowns. The Packers will win the game. Take

08:36hurts, pile, drive his ass and take the game over and win in Pharrell, Adelphia. That's what I'm

08:42talking about, Billy. Enjoy the games tonight and tomorrow, Bill. Good to see you.

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