How economically damaging are the Californian wildfires?

CGTN Europe

CGTN Europe interviewed Stefan Doerr, Professor of Wildfire Science at Swansea University

Transcript

00:00Well, as these wildfires sweep through some of America's most exclusive neighborhoods,

00:05attention is already turning to the cost of this disaster.

00:08The commercial weather forecaster AccuWeather estimates losses so far of around $52 billion,

00:15but warned that's likely to rise.

00:18The world's largest reinsurance group says hurricanes, fires and other disasters

00:23caused a total of $320 billion of losses in 2024.

00:28That's around a third higher than the previous year.

00:32Well, let's talk now to Stefan Doerr, who's a professor of wildfire science at Swansea University.

00:38Good to see you, Stefan. Welcome to the program.

00:40So clearly these fires are still not under control.

00:43Lots of damage there, but how damaging could they be economically and for insurers?

00:51Well, of course, because a lot of properties have already been destroyed.

00:55These are very high-value properties.

00:58Chances are this may well turn into the most expensive wildfire disaster,

01:02at least for insured losses, in Californian history and likely also in U.S. history.

01:08The verdict is still out, for example, how much exactly the Maui fire in Hawaii actually costs.

01:14But it's very probable that these fires exceed those costs.

01:18And why have these particular ones been so bad?

01:23It's been a combination of a number of factors.

01:25One is the very strong Santa Ana winds, which are not unusual this time of the year.

01:30But what is unusual is that we've had the summer drought extend well into winter,

01:35so we haven't had any significant winter precipitation, and that meant that the vegetation is tinder dry.

01:41All it takes is a single ignition and you have one big fire.

01:44We now have five fires in the area, and they are extremely challenging to suppress.

01:49So hopefully with the change in wind that we're expecting in this area, there will be some progress.

01:55Looking at figures from last year, there was a big rise in the cost of losses from various natural disasters.

02:01Are they really getting worse or more frequent?

02:05Absolutely. I mean, as far as fires are concerned, what we're seeing,

02:10and that's well demonstrated through studies, is that the fires are globally becoming more extreme.

02:16It doesn't necessarily mean that the fires are bigger everywhere,

02:19but certainly when it comes to the United States and also Canada,

02:22fire size, fire intensity and fire frequency are all on the rise.

02:26And this, of course, brings with it a much greater damage.

02:30The other part of the equation is that we have more and more properties, infrastructures,

02:35in areas that are prone to wildfire, and Malibu is a key example here.

02:39If you bring this together with more extreme fire behavior, of course, the costs are going through the roof.

02:45So let's talk about North America and Canada that you mentioned there.

02:48Why are those areas so vulnerable to natural disasters?

02:54Again, when it comes to fire in particular, North America, especially Western North America,

02:59has an almost unique combination of very dense vegetation and also very flammable vegetation and ignition.

03:06Many fires are caused by lightning, especially in Canada, for example, but also many fires are caused by humans.

03:11Most fires actually are caused by humans.

03:14And because many of the areas are densely populated, the possibility of an ignition,

03:18whether that is directly by, say, a campfire, by a discarded cigarette, by an electrical fault or anything else,

03:25if you increase population density, you will increase the risk of fire.

03:29So bring on to this the increased occurrence of drought.

03:33That basically means that we are likely to have many fires into the future in the United States,

03:40especially in the West Coast.

03:42What we've also been seeing across the world, but especially in the Western United States, is that the fire season,

03:48so the conditions under which fires are likely to occur, has lengthened.

03:52Globally, it lengthened for about 27 percent since 2018.

03:57Sorry, since 2008, yes.

04:05And that means that the probability of a fire occurring at any time of the year has increased.

04:10And, of course, in California, the situation is even worse.

04:13The fire weather season has lengthened even more, and that means greater probability of fire.

04:19I mean, we are talking about some areas which are just becoming uninsurable, aren't they,

04:23because of the high risk of living there.

04:25What does that mean for all of us, for our premiums?

04:30I think it means two things.

04:32Ultimately, it's all about business, so if you can cover the costs, it may well be insurable.

04:36But for many people, it has become uninsurable.

04:39This is the case for many natural disasters, whether it is in floodplains, whether it is in fire-affected areas.

04:44But there is also, I think, there's some small positive twist in there.

04:49The insurers have a role to play in actually lowering the premiums when house owners,

04:55basically property owners, actually do everything they can to reduce the fire risk.

04:59And there's a lot of things that people can do.

05:01Professor, great to talk to you. Thank you so much for joining us on the program.

05:04That's Professor Stephan Doerr from Swansea University.

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