00:00Ali Renison is a former UK Trade Department official. Great to have you on Global Business Studio.
00:05So what for you really stands out from here? Which of these measures really count?
00:11I think the most important measure really is the part about sort of export controls that China has now placed,
00:18not just on drones, but drone components with associated technologies.
00:22So obviously it's sort of added in sort of like-for-like countermeasures around placing some US companies
00:28on sort of similar bans in the way that the US has done with Chinese companies.
00:32However, I think the biggest takeaway is really the dangling of the fact that they're saying basically
00:38if you want to take these kind of measures against our companies, we can kind of hit you more where
00:43it hurts
00:43because there are quite a few drone manufacturers in both the US and across the West who rely on components
00:48from China.
00:49This came just days after what both sides had called a constructive call.
00:56Is the real story here that the timing as much as the measures themselves?
01:02I think they're both fairly important.
01:04We've seen this pattern of escalation sometimes on either end,
01:08not only as sort of a meeting between the two leaders of both countries,
01:13but also around sort of big calls.
01:14And I think that there is some testing of the waters,
01:17an escalation in terms of creating leverage,
01:19because we may see some meeting between the heads of state in the future,
01:23and that provides a pretext for, I think, potential de-escalation.
01:26You talked about we might see the two leaders meeting,
01:30and that there has been talk of Xi and Trump meeting in person soon.
01:33Do you think this kind of exchange actually threatens it,
01:37or is it just the two sides of jockeying for position before they sit down?
01:42I think there's some substantive concerns, particularly from China's end,
01:46that they want addressed in terms of they don't like this sort of up-and-down bumpy ride that they
01:50see.
01:50They want some consistency.
01:52However, we've also seen this happen before, where measures are escalated,
01:56and then through a summit between President Xi and President Trump,
02:01they're effectively de-escalated.
02:03So jockeying for position is certainly part of it.
02:05But there's this one phrase that both sides keep using, strategic stability,
02:10even while they're trading sanctions.
02:13What would it actually take to make that kind of language meaningful?
02:19I think that if you had, certainly we've seen the relations between Scott Bessent,
02:24the sort of Treasury Secretary, and his sort of counterpart in the Chinese government meeting,
02:27to try and resolve some of these sensitive issues through dialogue.
02:30I think what China is perhaps looking more from is to have a sense of an overarching approach
02:35to relations with China on trade that don't mean that even when you have a summit that de-escalates,
02:40you then get different parts of the United States government and regulators coming in
02:43and some whacking bans on sort of Chinese companies, you know, here, there, and everywhere.
02:48I think they want to see.
02:50We do know that the U.S.-China Board of Trade idea that was proposed at the last summit between the
02:54leaders,
02:54that is meant to try and deal with some of these issues,
02:57but it's not going to tackle the really sensitive issues.
02:59So I think they want some stability in how both President Trump approaches China
03:03and the rest of the U.S. government does as well.
03:05Ali Renison, thank you very much indeed.
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