Donald Trump to be sentenced in hush money case - What next for US politics? - video Dailymotion

CGTN Europe

CGTN Europe spoke to Professor of International Politics at University of Birmingham, David Dunn

Transcript

00:00Now David Dunn is a professor of international politics at the University

00:04of Birmingham. Professor thanks so much for your time. The judges already

00:07indicated that jail time is unlikely so does this case actually matter to Donald

00:12Trump? Yes it matters to him hugely in terms of his reputation and he has been

00:19consistently calling for these charges to be thrown out. In fact one of the

00:24reasons why this hearing has been scheduled at this date is that he

00:28complained that that would hang over him over the next four years and

00:31interrupt his concentration as president. So the judge said fine we'll

00:35do it now then. And it matters also to the judge. The judge is very keen to show

00:41that the rule of law in America still applies. That actually he has been

00:46found guilty of 34 felonies and therefore the one of the jury which was

00:51unanimous should be seen to prevail and the justice prevail and that he is found

00:56guilty and given a sentence, a token sentence, for the crimes that he has

01:01been found guilty of. So Trump is furious. The judge is keen to hold the rule of

01:06law. It will be interesting to see whether actually Trump is able to

01:11actually postpone this hearing or whether he would appeal the sentence but

01:14there is an attempt to have a legal reckoning in this interregnum between

01:19the election and him being sworn in as president on the 20th. In other

01:24developments in the run-up to the inauguration on the 20th, on Friday Mike

01:28Johnson re-elected House Speaker. However there is concern among some Republican

01:33representatives that he might not be able to further Trump's agenda. Could you

01:38explain why this role of Speaker is so crucial for Trump's agenda? Well the

01:45Speaker of the House really does manage the whole legislative program of a new

01:49administration and is responsible for getting it through Congress and what we

01:53have is the new Congress when it's sworn in in January has an even thinner

01:58the majority than the one that's in there just now and there are

02:02many people in that Republican majority are unhappy with aspects of the agenda

02:08that Trump is putting forward. Trump wants to extend the tax cuts that he

02:13put forward last time he was in office which will cost four trillion dollars

02:18and favor mostly the rich. What that is likely to do is increase America's

02:22deficit and there are many fiscally conservative Americans are very

02:26concerned about that. Add to that that there are many aspects of the agenda

02:30that are very radical. The very radical deportation plans, the trade policy

02:35that are very confrontational, plans to cut the federal budget which will mean

02:41cutting into programs that are dearly popular among many of the American

02:47people which could have electoral effects for members of Congress. So it's

02:50by far from clear whether this very radical agenda across a

02:56whole variety of issues will get the support even within the Republican Party

03:00to get the majority needed to actually get them through Congress and the

03:05Speaker's role is crucial in this and many regard him as ineffectual, regard

03:09him as captured by Trump and they are not entirely happy with him of support

03:15of his leadership. So what we're likely to see despite the fact that Trump has

03:19the White House and both houses of Congress and a quiescent Supreme Court

03:23we're likely to see a very fractious set of politics in the next four years or

03:28certainly the next two years as Trump tries to push through what are

03:32controversial and radical policies. At the same time Trump's been having many

03:36meetings at his Mar-a-Lago home. What is his agenda in this period running up to

03:42his inauguration? What's he trying to do do you think? Well Trump is very keen to

03:48avoid what happened last time round when he was sworn in with very little clear

03:52idea of what to do or what agenda to follow and he was largely reacted and

03:57really unfamiliar with the ways of Washington. So this time round he's

04:01actually trying to be thoroughly prepared across a range of issues. He's

04:06trying to get as many people into positions of authority who are loyal to

04:09him as their first priority to ensure that he doesn't get blocked on all the

04:13policy changes he wants to do. So as I say there's a radical agenda there. He

04:18also is indicated that he's quite keen to actually affect retribution on his

04:23political enemies and there are plans to do that as part of his new administration

04:27coming in from January the 20th. So he plans to hit the ground

04:32running. He wants to actually make sure that he makes a whole flurry of

04:36announcements as soon as he's back into the White House and he wants to do that

04:41across a range of issues. So that the activity in Maduraga has been

04:47very frenetic. There have been many people trying to lobby him in Florida to

04:53make sure that their agenda is pursued. This includes business interests,

04:59international interlocutors, many foreign powers have sent representatives

05:04down there, diplomats down there to talk to him in his winter White House as it

05:10were, in order to try and influence what he does when he comes into office. Because

05:14there is a huge amount at stake not just in terms of all the domestic things I've

05:19talked about but also in terms of actually the future of relations with

05:22Russia and Ukraine, the future of the Middle East, not least of which is the

05:28future of Syria which is far from clear, that where what happens with Iran, whether

05:32Israel gets to go ahead to attack Iran if it moves towards a nuclear weapon

05:37capability and of course more broadly in international trade policy and of

05:41course a subset of that is also China and with that China and the relationship

05:45to Taiwan. So there are many many issues that Trump will have to face as

05:50president. It's far from clear what the positions will be on all of those

05:56issues given that Trump is keen to be a disruptor, he's keen to actually impose

06:01his own agenda and particular style on those relationships and therefore we're

06:06in for a fairly frenetic period as we enter the White House from January

06:11onwards as those policy positions are outlined and whether they are successful

06:17both in Congress and in terms of the interlocutors that they are aimed at as

06:22part of that wider policy. For example we're already seeing today the

06:26Prime Minister of Honduras saying that they will kick out the American base

06:30there if the Americans try to deport Honduran and other Latin American

06:35citizens who are in America allegedly illegally. So I think what we're in for

06:40an exciting time in terms of the news agenda, in terms of the political agenda

06:45because this administration is not business as usual.

06:48Absolutely, thank you so much for your time David Dunn, Professor of International

06:52Politics at the University of Birmingham.

Donald Trump to be sentenced in hush money case - What next for US politics?

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