Antisipasi Dampak PPN 12% ke Pasar Saham

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Senin (23/12/2024) dengan Tema Antisipasi Dampak PPN 12% ke Pasar Saham"

Transcript

00:00GAMES PLUS ARCADE is available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!

00:05Thank you, Mr. Miyarusa, for joining us again.

00:07We're still in the BUS market, and we're still going to talk about information and capital market recommendations.

00:12We'll start, Mr. Miyarusa, with the highlight market.

00:14First, we'll highlight some sentiments, especially the Rupiah,

00:17which has increased from 0.58% to 16,190 USD on Friday trading.

00:25Then, from MI10, there's Exel Asiata, or XJL,

00:28which cooperates with XHNH, or SM Enterprises, for IoT solutions.

00:34And, Mr. Miyarusa, there's news from Waskita Karya, or WSKT,

00:38which established the office building of the Governor of Papua,

00:41with a value estimated to reach Rp215 billion.

00:46We turn, Mr. Miyarusa, to some agendas that should be considered,

00:49from the United States, consumer trust,

00:51then, from the UK, there's the domestic product, Bruto,

00:55and the consumer price index from the domestic market.

00:57Let's continue, Mr. Miyarusa, to the MI10 agenda.

01:00There's COCA, or General Stockholders' Meeting,

01:02as well as MHKI, IPCC,

01:06cash dividend payment, as well as DUTY,

01:09and IPCM, DPS, Interim Cash Dividend,

01:12as well as GMFE, XHMETD.

01:17An update from Bursa Asia, Mr. Miyarusa,

01:22MHKI is expected to increase by 0.98%,

01:25Stratimes increased by 0.24%,

01:27Kospi increased by 1.07%,

01:29and Hang Seng, Hong Kong,

01:31everything is moving in a positive direction

01:33for the main indexes from Asia this morning.

01:39Let's continue, Mr. Miyarusa.

01:49This time, we will discuss, Mr. Miyarusa,

01:51about PPN 12%, which is estimated to have an impact

01:55on the capital market for various sectors,

01:58especially consumer goods, Mr. Miyarusa,

02:01then there's the property sector, banking, and retail.

02:06We will discuss with Mr. Ezarido Ibnutama,

02:09an economist from NHK Securities Indonesia.

02:12Mr. Ezarido, how are you?

02:14I'm good.

02:15Mr. Ezarido, are you on vacation?

02:17Not yet.

02:18Or are you in the middle of a vacation?

02:22Not yet, not yet, 100% vacation.

02:24Not yet 100% vacation, but are you in Indonesia?

02:27No, I'm in Japan right now.

02:29Okay, thank you for your time.

02:32Okay, Mr. Ezarido,

02:34in this vacation,

02:36what will be the market opportunities?

02:39And the most important thing is the anticipation of PPN 12%,

02:42because it is very,

02:44what is it,

02:46it has become the main concern in society.

02:49It is even estimated that the increase

02:52can be seen from 11% to 12%.

02:54But if you look at it,

02:55actually what has to be paid is around 9%,

02:58which is considered quite large.

03:00And it will have an impact on many things,

03:02including a number of sectors that I have mentioned in the capital market.

03:05What do you think, Mr. Ezarido?

03:08So if we look at the PPN that will go up,

03:12we have to look at what sectors are affected,

03:16like what was mentioned earlier,

03:19so the consumer sector.

03:21So if we look at the consumer purchasing power in Indonesia,

03:25it has begun to decline,

03:27and loan growth has also begun to slow down.

03:30That is one of the indicators that many people

03:35may not be too confident to use loans anymore,

03:41to use loans for their basic necessities,

03:45for their grocery shopping,

03:47or their monthly expenses.

03:49They tend to save more for now.

03:57That is from the retail side.

04:00And if we look at the average selling price,

04:03in some TBK companies as well,

04:07it has begun to decline.

04:09That is not because the company has lowered its price.

04:13That is because consumers have begun to buy

04:18cheaper products,

04:20compared to last year.

04:23So if we look at it,

04:24it is not keeping pace with inflation.

04:29That is exactly the point here.

04:35And we also see that if the PPN is increased,

04:38the consumer purchasing power will weaken.

04:44One more thing,

04:46we can see that there is a prospect for the defensive sector,

04:53but it is not certain.

04:54Because the defensive sector,

04:56such as healthcare,

04:57has a significant impact as well.

04:59Because VIP rooms will receive 12% PPN.

05:03This is going to be something

05:08that a lot of patients will consider.

05:13Because if they look at the price

05:16for a hospital in Indonesia,

05:19for a VIP room,

05:21if we compare it to Malaysia or Singapore,

05:24the standard of VIP rooms in Indonesia

05:26might be lower or middle up.

05:32So if a lot of patients do the calculation,

05:36why do a lot of Indonesian patients

05:39flock or migrate to Singapore

05:46to use their healthcare services?

05:51So you see,

05:53with the 12% PPN policy,

05:55which includes a few things that are considered premium,

05:57including in the health sector,

05:58this will make people who are able

06:02to choose more countries like Singapore or Malaysia, Penang.

06:07Even though the government has seen the great potential

06:10of the health industry in the country.

06:12That's why it is encouraged.

06:13But with this,

06:15maybe more people will stay in those countries.

06:20For example,

06:22Mr. Ezak,

06:23you said that the increase in minimum wage

06:30will not replace the increase in PPN.

06:34It means that even though the PPN is increasing,

06:37but with the 12% PPN policy,

06:40it will not cover it.

06:41You still see that the people's livelihoods

06:42will still be affected.

06:44Actually, if we look at the data from the BPS,

06:48currently 65% of people are paid below the minimum wage.

06:57So around 65%.

07:00If the minimum wage is increased to 6.5%,

07:05the contribution or the payment segment

07:08below the minimum wage will increase.

07:10That's the logic.

07:12Because if we look at it,

07:14there are formal sector and informal sector.

07:16And this informal sector is like a contract

07:19or paid maybe weekly.

07:23So that's one of the things I see

07:30why the increase in PPN is not too significant.

07:36Because there is a major proportion of the workforce

07:39who are also paid below the minimum wage right now.

07:42So if we increase it,

07:43more people will be paid below the minimum wage.

07:47Because the job opportunities in Indonesia

07:51are probably not too good right now.

07:55If it's good,

07:57the formal sector above the minimum wage

08:00or equal to the minimum wage

08:01should contribute to our job labor force increase.

08:06But it turns out that in Indonesia's effects stock market,

08:08most companies are more affordable.

08:16And with employees who meet the policy standards

08:19to be listed in Indonesia's effects stock market.

08:22You don't see that this business will be affected twice.

08:26Increased UMP,

08:27then later with PPN 12%,

08:29it may also affect their products

08:31or other multi-flayer effects.

08:34So the people's purchasing power is already low,

08:37then affected by the UMP costs,

08:40what is it like?

08:42It's possible that companies like those who sell consumer products

08:47will pass over the costs to the consumers

08:53if they have to increase their labor force

09:03to 6.5%.

09:04It's possible that they're just going to pass over

09:07to the consumers.

09:09Okay.

09:10So what are the steps of anticipation for investors

09:12in the middle of January 2025

09:16if PPN is indeed and certainly increased?

09:20What are the steps of anticipation for now?

09:23What should be done with the intention of saying

09:25that the sectors that will be affected are quite a lot?

09:29Negative impacts.

09:32I think investors should just wait and see.

09:36Wait and see.

09:37Just wait and see for now.

09:40Because there are many uncertainties

09:42about how the market will react.

09:44Maybe the market's reaction is already quite negative.

09:47It also affects the Fed,

09:49which appears to be less dovish for next year.

09:54We also see a lot of foreigners

09:57who want to leave Indonesia.

10:02So I would recommend for investors to wait and see

10:06how the markets will react.

10:09I think the market will react very bearish at the beginning of the year.

10:15The market will be very bearish at the end of the year.

10:19What are the targets for the end of the year?

10:21It looks like there are only 5 trading days left.

10:30Yes, we do see that it can reach 7,500

10:34for the end of the year.

10:35It can rebound.

10:36We have anticipated.

10:387,500?

10:40Yes, that's our target for the end of the year.

10:447,500.

10:45Even though there are only 5 trading days left?

10:47Yes.

10:48If we look at our bond yields,

10:52they have started to correct.

10:54Yesterday, there was a negative sentiment from the FOMC meeting

10:59and Jerome Powell said that

11:02they're going to be less dovish for next year.

11:05So there are a lot of net foreign sales.

11:09But if we look at Friday,

11:11it's more stable for the net foreign inflow.

11:16Okay.

11:17So you see that even though the IHSG is down 7,000

11:21at the end of Friday,

11:22you see that in the next 5 days,

11:24there is still a chance to pull 7,500?

11:28Yes.

11:29So we are anticipating for the Santa Claus Rally.

11:34There is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally

11:36and window dressing, maybe.

11:37Yes.

11:38Okay.

11:39I'm a bit pessimistic,

11:41but you're more optimistic, right?

11:43Okay.

11:44What will bring the IHSG down to 7,500?

11:48It's possible.

11:50Usually, at the end of the year,

11:53the IHSG is quite significant.

11:58For example, last year,

12:00at the end of the trading day,

12:03the IHSG was able to reach the all-time high

12:07at the end of December.

12:10So I wouldn't get past them.

12:12I wouldn't get past the investors

12:15to gain renewed confidence

12:18at the end of the year.

12:20Or the retail investors,

12:22before they go on vacation,

12:24they want to withdraw their money

12:26or want to trade first

12:28before the end of the year

12:30to prepare for the trading position,

12:34their investment for next year.

12:37So I think that it's going to be very...

12:41I think it's going to have a rally

12:45at the end of this year.

12:47It's possible to reach 7,500.

12:51Some people even said it could reach 7,600.

12:55But I'm not as optimistic as them.

12:57Okay.

12:58You see 7,500 on the 31st.

13:02There's a chance the IHSG will reach it.

13:05Are there any opportunities

13:07for the investors to reach 7,500?

13:11Actually, if we look at it,

13:14from the technology sector,

13:16from the coal sector, energy,

13:19it's very prospective too.

13:22And also from the logistics sector.

13:25So if we look at those three aggressive sectors,

13:28usually those three aggressive sectors

13:31rebound quite strongly at the end of the year.

13:35So I recommend to monitor those three sectors.

13:39Okay.

13:40Maybe we will discuss the recommendation of the stock.

13:42What kind of stocks do you recommend, Mr. Ezzah?

13:46So I recommend Brand, Aman, and Pani for today.

13:54For today.

13:55So it's very short-term.

13:57And later we will discuss the timeframe,

13:59how long is the short-term.

14:00And for those who already have stocks,

14:02but you asked for a wait-and-see first

14:04about the PPN 12%,

14:06how is it?

14:07Don't hesitate to join us in MarketBas.

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