- 1 year ago
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00:00Steve, I want to update your percentages in a moment on Soto.
00:02Okay.
00:02I just want to react to something that I saw going on in the Twitch chat.
00:05There were a bunch of these.
00:06They've all scrolled upwards.
00:07Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:08But...
00:09There's a dog pile in there.
00:10Neither you or I like the Oraldas Chapman sighting.
00:12No.
00:13Bad guy.
00:14He's a hundred years old.
00:15Old.
00:15Bad dude.
00:16Not great.
00:16And decent money for one year.
00:18Not great the last couple of years.
00:19I stand by all those things.
00:20The money, though, we were called to task for, and this is somewhat fair, I think.
00:25We complain about the Red Sox not spending money.
00:27Yes.
00:28And then they sign someone, and we go, that guy stinks.
00:31We don't like that signing.
00:32Well, we're not going to like every signing.
00:33Okay, but also we specifically reference that's too much money for this guy.
00:37Now, I personally think you can say they didn't really spend.
00:43This is a one-year, $11 million signing, but are we being hypocrites by saying,
00:47sign, sign, sign, spend, spend, spend, then they sign somebody and spend,
00:50and we go, too much money.
00:51Is that hypocritical?
00:53So, I don't think so.
00:55I think like every single contract isn't going to be great.
00:59See, there's a commitment to the team.
01:01Like a commitment to the team, and like a long-term commitment, is one of these
01:05like mega deals, which they haven't signed in a long time.
01:07I mean, re-signing Devers, sure, but like a 12, 13-year deal to Soto, or
01:13six-plus years, let's say, to like Corbin Burns or somebody like that,
01:16that is a big-time commitment.
01:18They spent more money for Chris Sale to win the Cy Young somewhere else
01:21last year than they did on Chapman.
01:24We're just saying, for a one-off guy who may or may not be your closer,
01:27that seems like a lot.
01:28And so, if that takes away from some of your other big moves, I wouldn't
01:31love that.
01:32That's it.
01:32Okay.
01:32So, right.
01:33I just want them to spend.
01:34I do.
01:34I do.
01:34Yeah.
01:34If they signed Soto and Corbin Burns and then they spent $11 million on
01:38a role as Chapman, I won't care about the money aspect because they're
01:41just spending like crazy.
01:42But to be consistent, like we, neither one of us really wanted Blake
01:46Snell, so if they won the Blake Snell sweepstakes, I'm not going to be
01:49like, yay.
01:50I'd be like, really?
01:51Is that the best use of your money?
01:52I would, that one, I would have applauded them for spending.
01:55I wouldn't have liked the signing.
01:56I wouldn't have picked this up.
01:57I think I would have applauded them for spending.
01:58You're not going to like every player.
01:59Here's my point.
02:00If you have, this really is a criticism of them not spending.
02:03If they have 70 million to spend and they're not going to spend into
02:07the luxury tax, okay, they have 70 million until they hit the CBT.
02:11Is this an indication?
02:12Number one, they're not going to spend big on Soto or Corbin Burns.
02:15They're going to spread it out.
02:17Yeah.
02:17And if you only have 70 million to spend because they refuse to go into
02:20the luxury tax, now I need to criticize how you spend it.
02:24So I think we're okay there, but I understand the blowback saying
02:27they need to spend money and then we criticize the spending.
02:29I don't think it's, I don't like the timing.
02:31I don't think anybody, any, no Red Sox fan has ever liked Aurelius
02:34Chapman.
02:35Right.
02:35Some will convince themselves they do now because he's on the team
02:38and that's what happens, whatever, but he's a bad dude.
02:40The optics of making him first.
02:42That's what I'm saying.
02:42Yeah.
02:43So like, let's say, you know, the pipe dreams all come true and they
02:47are major players and they make trades.
02:49They sign either Soto or Burns or whatever.
02:52And then also like the fifth name is Chapman.
02:55You're like, well, that's kind of odd, but whatever.
02:56Hey, we still got Soto and like, you're still fired up about it.
02:59And then, you know, if this guy is mowing down hitters in the eighth
03:03and ninth inning, like people will move on to the guy, whatever.
03:05He's, he's good now.
03:07And, you know, second chances and all that other stuff, but for him
03:10to be like the first guy is kind of obnoxious.
03:12And in retrospect, if he's kind of the face of, again, they spend
03:1670 million and they spend it on five or six different guys and they're
03:18all $10 million players and Chapman was first.
03:20So kind of be the face of it.
03:21Yeah.
03:21So he, we will forget about it.
03:23If they sign Soto, fine.
03:24Yeah.
03:24Forget about everything.
03:25But this does not.
03:26We'll forget about all our problems.
03:27Seriously.
03:27Soto.
03:28So let's get to Juan Soto and you guys can react to a Rawldus
03:31Chapman that's signing here in a very busy Jones and Keith on a
03:35tier Tuesday, which we'll do coming up about 10 minutes from now.
03:38A Tommy Tuesday.
03:39We'll talk to Tommy current at high noon.
03:42We got a key for madness scheduled for 1245 and looks like Brian
03:45just dropped off our.
03:47I'm going to go Brian.
03:48D'Angelo Tuesday.
03:50He did almost drop it.
03:52Did he?
03:52Yeah.
03:52He almost dropped away.
03:53He's opened the door.
03:54Oh, the sounds that would have.
03:56It would have.
03:57It's all right.
03:57Still just delicious.
03:58Would have embarrassed John Heyman sitting in a diner of the sounds
04:01we would have made if that got that got dropped.
04:02That's precious cargo there.
04:03Brian.
04:03That's right.
04:04But at D'Angelo Tuesday, it's our lunch spot every Tuesday here on
04:07Jones and Keith.
04:08We're very thankful for it.
04:10Randy Miller nj.com is kind of dominated.
04:12A lot of this reporting.
04:13What is it?
04:13Randy Miller?
04:14Juan Soto.
04:15Randy Miller.
04:15Randy J Miller.
04:16Randy J.
04:17Miller nj.com is Randy short for Randolph probably Randall.
04:22Oh Randall.
04:22Yeah, or Randolph Randolph Randolph Childress Randall Cunningham.
04:26Yep, Randall J.
04:27Miller.
04:28Okay, fine.
04:29He says the Red Sox have emerged as a favorite.
04:31Maybe the favorite a favorite maybe the favorite.
04:36That's what he said for Juan Soto.
04:38That's a little wishy-washy.
04:40Apparently they're trying to sell Juan Soto on him not being the only
04:46signing.
04:46I hope Chapman is one of these guys.
04:48He's like, okay, but they're signing Juan Soto.
04:51We got Chapman going out and getting and recruiting another arm or
04:55to Corbin Burns Max freed get them to sign with you.
04:59Have what will really upgrade the talent and you surmise before
05:02maybe that would work for a trade to like why is Juan Soto so
05:05interested in the farm system?
05:07100% maybe it's so they can bundle all these prospects to go get
05:10another arm like Garrett crochet or one of the arms in Seattle.
05:14Yeah, Logan Gilbert or whatever.
05:16Right Red Sox Mets Blue Jays all have made offers upwards of 600
05:20million dollars.
05:21That's according to Randy Miller and j.com that correlates by the
05:25way with Hector Gomez his reporting over the weekend.
05:27The Red Sox made a 13-year 625 million dollar offer to Juan Soto
05:33Keefe.
05:33I was 10% last week before we went on Thanksgiving break.
05:36You were 0% last week before Thanksgiving break.
05:39Yeah, what is the percentage on Juan Soto?
05:41The Red Sox get it can't still be 0 and they're offering 625 changed.
05:45I've changed if the six were yes 1% I am now giving them a 1% chance
05:50that's movement.
05:51That's huge movement.
05:52That's significant movement.
05:53Yes, they say.
05:54Oh, I had 0% you don't know.
05:56I was like, what's the point of talking about?
05:57You don't need to call my friend Dale with that kind of not today.
05:59I don't know.
06:00No, not today.
06:01Call me tomorrow.
06:01Maybe but I think there's there's a lot of buzz around it.
06:05There's a lot of people talking about it and he hasn't signed
06:08anywhere yet and there's no like removing of teams or there's not
06:13a ton of smoke around even Mets Yankees Blue Jays like the same
06:17team's kind of piling like on top of each other and it just it hasn't
06:20really gone away and you know people are putting their their their
06:24entire careers on the line to suggest that it's going he's going
06:28to be with the Red Sox.
06:30I just I would still be shocked.
06:32That's why I can't go much north of that.
06:34But I think it'd be crazy at this point to say 0% K I'll reference
06:38another report here.
06:39Andy Martino SNY don't know his reporting track record all out
06:42there.
06:42That's fine.
06:43He says there's widespread belief that among the bidders.
06:46Yeah, you heard the five bidders there from John Heyman Toronto will
06:49come in with the highest offer.
06:50It's Canadian money though.
06:51That's a good point.
06:51We let's do the converter.
06:52You're paid in loonies and toonies not good enough.
06:54What does that really work out to so I was at 10% I had I thought
07:01Keith outflanked but Billy last I want to say 25.
07:04You were 25%?
07:05Yeah.
07:05He Billy okay still.
07:08Yeah.
07:08Where are you now?
07:08Higher lower same 30.
07:10Wow, see I was going to I was I'm going to go to like 30% I'm going
07:14to go to like 25 where Billy was I'm sure 25% that's the only still
07:17has me outflanked.
07:18Yeah, there's still only one out of four key.
07:19Nick.
07:20What do you think?
07:20I kind of wanted to go to 35 teams.
07:22I'm going to go 20% so that I want to go a little north of all
07:24because I okay.
07:25I don't everybody a fair chance.
07:27I don't look at that even slice of the pie.
07:28Okay, everybody.
07:29Let's go through the contenders to sign him.
07:31Ready?
07:32Where do you think he's signing?
07:33Well, I guess I know your answer.
07:34Keep it's going to be everywhere else.
07:37New York.
07:38Do you think it's going to be Red Sox or Blue Jays if it's down
07:41to those two teams?
07:42Who's he choosing?
07:43I thought you're blue.
07:44The Red Sox are the Blue Jays.
07:46I didn't really bought the Blue Jays.
07:47Maybe it's the Otani thing from last year and if SNY is right
07:50Blue Jays have highest offer.
07:51Yeah, he's going to Boston.
07:52No, I think he probably goes to whatever the actual highest
07:55offer is as of this moment.
07:56Maybe the Blue Jays have the highest offer but Boris and Soto
08:00are waiting for one of the New York teams to go north of Toronto
08:03north of Toronto.
08:05Go north of the Canadian team Saskatchewan.
08:07Correct.
08:08They're going to go to the North Pole, but I think as soon as
08:11the Yankees or Mets put pen to paper with here's the offer and
08:16it's the highest offer which it will be.
08:18I think the highest offer will come out of New York one of
08:20those two and that's where he'll go, but it's Red Sox or Blue
08:22Jays Red Sox for you.
08:23Yes.
08:23Okay, I would say Red Sox.
08:25It's Red Sox or Dodgers.
08:27Where are you going?
08:28If you're him, where do you think he goes Dodgers?
08:30I would tend to think everybody goes to the Dodgers tend to
08:32think the Dodgers are real serious about it.
08:35Have the Dodgers missed anybody?
08:36They want it.
08:38Good question.
08:38Has there ever been a guy that they really wanted and didn't
08:41get? I don't want to say no, but not to my knowledge.
08:43Nothing.
08:43What do they want?
08:44Jumps to the front of my mind.
08:45They want to know Tawny got him.
08:46They want to Betts got him.
08:48Yamamoto got him.
08:48Yamamoto got him.
08:49Snell got him.
08:50Glasnow.
08:50I mean, I was a trade, but they still got him signed him.
08:52Do you say Freeman?
08:53Freeman got him.
08:54Freddie Freeman.
08:55If they really really are serious about it, they'll get
08:57him. Yeah, and I wouldn't blame anybody for wanting to go to
09:00LA. Imagine joining that team. And a chance to win a championship.
09:03Imagine that lineup.
09:05Yankees or Red Sox. Yankees.
09:07I would also say he stays with the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets.
09:11Mets.
09:12I still think if you sign him fourth on the list, I guess I
09:15have him somewhere, but look, it all comes down to I'm with
09:19dollars and cents.
09:20The highest bidder.
09:21I mean, if the Red Sox are willing to outspend New York, well
09:24then I think he would go to Boston.
09:26I just don't know if that's going to happen.
09:27I think the most desperate team and the team most likely to
09:30land them is the Mets.
09:31I wonder if the Red Sox, if the money ends up being crazy and
09:35kind of similar, then they probably all have to do that.
09:38Well, we'll give you an opt-out after year three, you know, and
09:41then we got to play this game all over again.
09:43And that's what you got to do.
09:44You got to do it.
09:44I am totally fine with that.
09:46If that's the game you got to play.
09:47It's kind of obnoxious to me and I know it's baseball.
09:50That's the way the contracts work.
09:51But after all of this and who knows when he's actually going
09:54to sign could be Christmas, could be middle of January.
09:58We have no idea.
09:58Could be Valentine's Day.
09:59It sounds like though.
10:00Most of the reporting is that this could be done next week.
10:02Well, it's supposed to be before meeting.
10:04Yeah, it's within the next 10 days.
10:05I think there should be like a push for it because once he signs
10:10then Corbin Burns can sign then a number of other players can
10:14sign teams can actually the five teams that are think they're
10:16in on it.
10:17Baseball should be pushing hard for this.
10:19Yes, because those five teams that we just named are going to
10:21be major players.
10:22I would imagine for other guys and nobody's really willing to
10:25make a big swing at like Chapman's a one-year deal, whatever
10:27other teams can do one-year deals, but who's going to sign
10:30another 10-year deal until they know they have soda or not?
10:33Yeah, the one thing I would try to sell one soda on and I forget
10:36who made this point.
10:37I want to say it was Tamazi, but I might be miscrediting.
10:39I would try to sell one soda on if you come to the Red Sox, you
10:44are the franchise.
10:45You're the face of the franchise.
10:47It's your team.
10:48It's not your team.
10:49If you go to the Dodgers, it's not your team.
10:51If you go to the Yankees, I guess the Mets and Blue Jays, it
10:54could be your team.
10:55Lindor was an MVP candidate last year.
10:57I think he would be the face of the Blue Jays.
10:59I don't know if everybody wants that.
11:00Well, I don't know that either.
11:01I don't want that because I don't think Yamamoto wanted that.
11:04I don't know.
11:04My answer is I don't know, but if that plays to his ego at all,
11:10I would try to play that up.
11:11Now you need to couple that with giving him the best offer, you
11:15know, or at least that is something within shouting distance
11:17or equal to whatever the best offer is.
11:19But in a tiebreaker scenario, the Mets and Red Sox have the same
11:22dollar figure on the table.
11:23How do you get him to choose Boston?
11:26You're the face of the franchise where you want influence on
11:29who we're going to sign.
11:30We'll go get player X, Y, and Z.
11:32We'll trade away these prospects for player X, Y, and Z.
11:35You give him that sort of power and influence and that to me is
11:39a tiebreaker.
11:39It's not the reason he would sign here for less money, but that
11:42would be a tiebreaker.
11:42I would try to play to that if that's something that interests
11:45him at all.
11:46One thing they keep playing up and I don't know if this is just
11:48all the the the internet detectives or if this is reality is
11:54the history of Dominican players with the Red Sox, which I mean
11:57Eduardo Perez was talking about the food.
11:58A lot.
11:58Yeah, it's true.
11:59The guy was out in Miami, but regardless he was here at one
12:02point and I understand like it is a great history and you know
12:05Ortiz and Manny and Pedro specifically and you know, most
12:09of that was 20 years ago, but I don't know.
12:12There's a lot of great Dominican players around baseball like
12:15without going through the history of the Yankees Mets like
12:18can't they make a similar pitch probably with a few of their
12:21guys even now like flag railroad juniors in with the Blue Jays
12:26right now.
12:26Like I feel like that is true.
12:28Like you have these three like superstar players with Boston
12:32and they were all fan favorites.
12:33They were all faces of the team.
12:35So that's great.
12:36Like you can lean on it, but I don't know how much of a separator
12:40that I would make.
12:41I would have that down my list on the pitch.
12:42Yeah, you know, I would have your the friend you're the guy
12:46you're not along for the ride.
12:47It's not you and Aaron judge.
12:48It's you.
12:49It's not you and a million guys on the Dodgers.
12:51It's you.
12:51Do you think he wants to just to go like a little bit further
12:53down?
12:54Do you think he wants to play right field at Fenway Park?
12:58It's not great, right?
12:59It's a hard right field to play.
13:00No, it's not a great outfield.
13:02No, he's not.
13:02He was a gold glove finalist, but he's right.
13:04The metrics are not friendly to him.
13:06I saw Harold Reynolds making the case.
13:08He could play left.
13:09Okay, look at any kind of just play the wall and if he wants
13:12to play right field, go ahead and play right.
13:13Yeah, whatever you want.
13:14You can pitch go ahead and play it in your one.
13:16If it's a disaster that we'll talk about moving you.
13:18You have to tell him that up front.
13:20Yeah, but I wonder if like that's part of his thing because
13:21you don't want, you know, and listen, I'll take Soto no matter
13:25what I'm not talking about like, oh, we're going to play him.
13:26I'm just saying like you find where he wants to go.
13:28I don't know if that's also part of the pitch, but it seems
13:31like they already have a team that half the team should just
13:34be a DH.
13:35Yeah, like Devor should be a DH.
13:37Kostas should be a DH.
13:38They've already said Yoshida can only DH.
13:40You're like you're running out of places for some of these
13:42guys. And then if Soto comes in, you're like like play right
13:44field a couple years and then like he needs a DH.
13:45So it is sort of an interesting thing.
13:47They need to figure out.
13:48Yeah.
13:49So look, I I would lean in on what you want to do is what we're
13:53going to do.
13:54Same the idea that you know, the Red Sox if they can bring in
13:59Soto with another arm that to me feels like the most far-fetched
14:03thing like Soto and Burns.
14:05The idea that they're going to sign Soto is such a that's out
14:09there.
14:09It's so out there and so atypical for how they've been acting
14:13now.
14:13I already have enough trouble, you know, extending my disbelief
14:19or what's the word?
14:20I'm looking for just just believing in something that feels
14:24so far-fetched.
14:25Yeah, and a dream.
14:27Yeah.
14:27Now they're going to do that and a big ticket pitcher like that
14:30just doesn't seems unlikely.
14:32Joe doesn't sound right to me, but maybe maybe things have
14:35happened.
14:35Maybe it's a trade.
14:36Maybe it's one Soto and a trade.
14:38Maybe it's not a free agent signing because Soto and Burns,
14:42I'd love to think the Red Sox are back to that.
14:44Yeah, but even I can't quite go there.
14:45Suspend my disbelief.
14:46Well, it's funny.
14:47I was looking at the yes.
14:48Okay suspension of disbelief the top free agents for this year
14:52and to me it kind of drops off a little bit.
14:54So MLB did like a beginning of the offseason.
14:57They're top 25 free agents.
14:59Yeah, and one Soto's number one makes sense Chapman to Corbin
15:02Burns.
15:03Oh Corbin Burns is number two makes sense.
15:05Number three is Sasaki the 23 year old from Japan.
15:09All right, Blake Snell is already fourth and he's gone already
15:13signed with the Dodgers add him to the list another guy that
15:17they wanted.
15:17They got him.
15:18Number five is Alex Bregman who we've brought up before coming
15:21here.
15:22And I think that would be in addition to another big player.
15:25You'd be like, oh, that's great, but he's already the fifth
15:27best at least according to MLB.com free agent.
15:30Yeah, I like him.
15:31I think so like more than you.
15:33I think he's getting kind of towards the downside and then
15:35maybe that might require a move for Devers.
15:38Yeah.
15:38Oh for a hundred percent.
15:39It would unless he's playing second base.
15:40That would be that would require a move for Devers off a third
15:43and then Max Fried.
15:44We've brought up from the Braves is number six on this list.
15:47Anthony Santander right?
15:49I'm going to be some good if I hit and stuff there.
15:52That would be great.
15:52If I hit Anthony Santander and like Teoscar Hernandez that level
15:56of free agent.
15:57Those are nice players and useful players, but you're not getting
16:00big ticket guy.
16:00Like sounds like there were six big ticket guys the way they
16:03have it, right?
16:04Yeah.
16:04I mean, I don't even know.
16:05I like you like Bregman more than I do.
16:06I like Alonzo.
16:07I'd throw Alonzo in there too.
16:08That feels like a big ticket guy, but yeah, I Kikuchi was 20th.
16:13He's already signed to it drops off.
16:14It drops off real quick to your point.
16:16It's not real quick.
16:17Tyler O'Neill is number 22.
16:19Yeah, you just said you just had him who's good like when he
16:22was healthy.
16:23You know, they're good at finding the right-handed stick for
16:26one year.
16:27The Adam Duvall the 250 25 home run right fielder who switches
16:31teams once a year.
16:31They're good at finding that guy.
16:32That's what I'm saying.
16:33I feel like just in free agency alone.
16:36If it's not Corbin Burns Juan Soto, it's going to be a tough
16:41sell.
16:42It's like a big success.
16:43Yes, right?
16:43Like especially when you're talking about not just signing
16:45Soto, but Soto and Burns.
16:46That's what you're saying.
16:48The hopes are up.
16:49So this is this is part of why we're bitching and complaining
16:51about her all this time.
16:52Yeah.
16:52Yeah.
16:52Yeah.
16:53Yeah, let me let me see the full thing I guess but in the
16:55meantime, I don't like the Chapman signing and I don't like
16:57what I think it signifies.
16:58So if they end up with Max Fried and Alex Bregman, I'll probably
17:01talk myself into hey, maybe maybe playoff.
17:03I'll talk myself into that big time.
17:04Yeah.
17:05Yeah.
17:05Yeah, but I mean, but there's a big difference between like
17:09Juan Soto Logan Gilbert in a trade and this oh for sure.
17:14So yeah.
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