Insights Chiefs vs Raiders SGP Strategy & Key Player Bets

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00:00All right, I mentioned this already.

00:04I altered some things down.

00:06I took Travis Kelsey down to 40 plus at minus 280 just because, as I mentioned, as you and

00:10I have talked about, Tom, sometimes we don't know what his role will be yardage wise, but

00:14we know where Mahomes will look for one of his key teammates.

00:17Now, outside of that, I also altered down DeAndre Hopkins to 25 plus yards as well.

00:23He's sitting between that 21 to 35 mark over a number of games.

00:28I also talked about how his production has switched up.

00:31It's either been 56 receiving yards or 25 receiving yards, so altering them down just

00:35felt right.

00:36But here's where some juice comes in.

00:38Noah Gray to grab a touchdown plus 340.

00:40I like this one because four touchdowns in the last two games and the tight ends.

00:45We talked about how productive the tight ends are against both of these teams.

00:49You're talking about tight ends that can get 70 plus yards versus the Raiders team.

00:53You're also talking about the fact that if they lock in on Travis Kelsey, like teams

00:57tend to do, at least in the first half, because of those slow starts that we've seen, Noah

01:00Gray has to throw on his cape and be the hero in the end zone.

01:03So this is coming up plus 685 for my three-legger same game parlay.

01:07Tom, what do you got?

01:09All right, let's roll into it.

01:11This one's up at plus 484 and it starts off very simply.

01:15Chiefs team total over 27 and a half is sitting at minus 110.

01:19I expect them to come out and put up some points today.

01:21This is a game again.

01:23I think the Chiefs are going to drop 30 plus.

01:24I think they're going to cover.

01:25I think they're going to win by 20 plus overall.

01:27This is a Chiefs game.

01:28This is a time for them to finally get right.

01:30They had a road game against the Buffalo Bills, you know, last week.

01:33Maybe last week was a bit of a look ahead spot where they're looking ahead to a division

01:37matchup on a holiday slate, a short week, a primetime game, whatever you want to call

01:41today.

01:42Then I'm going to turn to Isaac Pacheco for a TD at plus 115.

01:45Again, kind of one of the main points that I'm making today is it's, we're going to see

01:48Pacheco and Kelsey both score.

01:50I like Pacheco's odds again at plus 115.

01:53He gets into the end zone, keep it as simple as possible.

01:56And then if the Chiefs are doing all this scoring, where does the other side come in?

01:58That's going to be Brock Bowers over 61 and a half receiving yards for the Raiders.

02:02This is also sitting at minus 110.

02:04He leads the team in target share at 23.7%.

02:06He has at least 10 targets in five of his last seven games when it comes to the Chiefs.

02:10They've allowed 797 receiving yards specifically to opposing tight ends.

02:15That is the worst in the NFL.

02:16So Chiefs get out and score.

02:18And then the player who's been targeted the most for the Raiders will rack up some yards.

02:23Doesn't matter if it's garbage time, doesn't matter when it happens, where it happens.

02:26Brock Bowers, who is having an awesome record-breaking year for the Raiders, will pick up the yards

02:31for them.

02:32Yeah.

02:33I'm a Bowers fan.

02:34Not to mention is that when you're looking at getting those gritty third down conversions

02:37or fourth down conversions, if you don't have a reliable running back, then your best friend

02:41is your tight end.

02:42Dave, what do you make of these two SGPs of the day?

02:46I love them both.

02:47I really do.

02:48I know I'm not allowed to say that.

02:50I really, I really, I really, really like them both.

02:54This is, I mean, look at Tom's again.

02:56I don't know which one gets you.

02:59The odds are right.

03:00I mean, if the Chiefs don't score over 27 and a half points, I'll be very surprised.

03:05But Chad goes back.

03:06They're going to try to get him the ball.

03:09And the Bowers is the only offensive weapon that the Raiders have, and they got a new

03:14quarterback playing.

03:16So that one's that, that worries me a little bit, but he should get that case.

03:22I love what you did here.

03:23I love what you did.

03:25You took Kelsey down.

03:27If he don't get 40, we got nothing to talk about later.

03:32Hopkins don't get 25 plus.

03:35I can't believe that's only minus two 45.

03:38And then you took your shot.

03:40You made this a gamble with Noah Gray and you put plus three 40.

03:45So a regular three team parlay normally pay six and a half to one.

03:49You found your way to get there.

03:51Casey, no matter what anybody says with the houndstooth or not, it is your day.

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