- 1 year ago
The planet's predominant superpower prides itself on its rules-based order and a constitution that codifies and sets in stone the transfer of power through the ballot box; a model and values that the United States tries to impose on the world scene. But for all the laws, all the rules, there is also Mao's line about political legitimacy, that "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."
With the election of Donald Trump and the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol, America deviated from the traditional left versus right divide. Now, five days out from an election that's too close to call, could that model change again? We ask about the security and legitimacy of a process that has already begun, with 60 million ballots cast in early voting. Could the model of governance really change inside the nation that's home to Wall Street and Silicon Valley, that has kept the peace inside NATO, that defends South Korea and patrols the Pacific? If so, what's the plan for the rest of the planet? Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elena Colonna and Ilayda Habip.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
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With the election of Donald Trump and the January 6, 2021 storming of the US Capitol, America deviated from the traditional left versus right divide. Now, five days out from an election that's too close to call, could that model change again? We ask about the security and legitimacy of a process that has already begun, with 60 million ballots cast in early voting. Could the model of governance really change inside the nation that's home to Wall Street and Silicon Valley, that has kept the peace inside NATO, that defends South Korea and patrols the Pacific? If so, what's the plan for the rest of the planet? Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elena Colonna and Ilayda Habip.
Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
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NewsTranscript
00:00The planet's predominant superpower prides itself on its rules-based order and a constitution
00:17that codifies and sets in stone the transfer of power through the ballot box, a model and
00:24values the United States tries to impose or at least sell on the world scene.
00:29But for all the laws, all the rules, there's Mao's line about political legitimacy, that
00:35power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
00:38With the election of Donald Trump and the January 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol,
00:44America deviated from the traditional left versus right divide.
00:47And now, five days out from an election that's too close to call, could that model change
00:53again?
00:54We'll ask about the security and the legitimacy of a process that's already begun in the U.S.,
01:00some 60 million ballots cast so far in early voting.
01:04Could the model of governance really change inside the nation that's home to Wall Street,
01:09Silicon Valley, that keeps the peace inside of NATO, that defends South Korea and patrols
01:15the Pacific?
01:16If so, what is the plan for the rest of the planet?
01:20Today in the France 24 debate, we're asking if U.S. democracy is under duress.
01:25With us from Washington is correspondent Fraser Jackson.
01:29Thanks for being with us.
01:33From Irvine, California, he's a co-founder of the Lincoln Project, Republicans who've
01:37broken with Trump's brand of politics.
01:39Mike Madrid, senior fellow at the University of California, Irvine's School of Social Ecology.
01:45Your latest book, The Latin Century.
01:47Thank you for joining us.
01:49Thank you so much for having me.
01:51From Haarlem in the Netherlands, former member of the European Parliament, Marietta Schakke-O'Fella
01:56at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center and Institute for Human Centered Artificial Intelligence.
02:03Great to see you.
02:04Good to see you.
02:06Craig Capetis is contributing editor to The Daily Beast.
02:08Welcome.
02:11Your reactions on the hashtag F2 for debate.
02:14Before we go to our panel, let's go to Craig Capetis' native Pennsylvania, the swing state
02:18that clinched Joe Biden's win in 2020.
02:21France 24 correspondent Jessica LeMesselier reports on a race that's as tense as it is
02:27close.
02:30In the battleground state of Pennsylvania at Luzerne County Courthouse, Republicans
02:35hurl insults at Democratic lawmakers.
02:38Fascist.
02:39Shame.
02:40On the agenda, a legal dispute over drop boxes, locked structures where voters can deliver
02:46their mail-in ballots.
02:47Statistics from the 2020 election show that Democrats are twice as likely to vote by mail
02:53than Republicans.
02:55Trump supporter T.J. Fitzgerald pushes a misleading claim about illegal immigrants voting using
03:00drop boxes.
03:01Let's have some integrity and make sure that only United States citizens can vote and make
03:08sure that our votes count and no illegals do.
03:12Non-citizen voting is illegal and extremely rare.
03:16After the 2016 election, the Brennan Center surveyed local election officials in 42 jurisdictions
03:22with high immigrant populations and found just 30 cases of suspected non-citizens voting
03:28out of 23.5 million.
03:31That's just one vote in a million.
03:34Multiple analyses have shown that it's more likely someone will be hit by lightning than
03:39commit mail ballot fraud.
03:41There is no problem with drop boxes.
03:44There's no problem.
03:46No, you're the problem.
03:47Excuse me.
03:48Hey.
03:49Sorry.
03:50No, you're not sorry.
03:52There have been issues with the vote in previous elections in Luzerne County.
03:56In 2022, for example, the ballot machines ran out of paper, but this was due to human
04:01error, not a conspiracy to rig the vote.
04:04Amongst the Trump supporters, MAGA influencer Scott Pressler.
04:10He was a foot soldier in the Stop the Steal campaign that spread the false claim that
04:14Trump won the 2020 election and culminated in the January 6th insurrection.
04:19Scott was on the Capitol grounds that day.
04:22He's part of a push to register Republicans to vote.
04:25Trump's daughter-in-law invited him on stage at a rally for the former president to thank
04:29him for his efforts.
04:30Pennsylvania, you have the power to change the world.
04:35Scott is not from Luzerne County, but he's moved here so that he can vote in Pennsylvania,
04:39a crucial swing state.
04:41We are going to turn Pennsylvania blood red, peacefully, and elect Donald J. Trump as the
04:4947th president of the United States.
04:51Thank you very much.
04:54He streams his activities on social media.
04:57I think the Democrats are going to pull any trick out of the book to try to stop Donald
05:02Trump, whether that's trying to imprison him, shoot him, or stop him from winning this November,
05:07as we've seen.
05:09Milda Crocomo, the woman in charge of elections here in Luzerne County, is not having any
05:13of it.
05:14Words that are used at the meeting, something to the effect about red blood or something
05:19like that, that's a little troubling.
05:22There was a post of a mock-up of the character from V for Vendetta.
05:28The meme casts Scott as the vigilante hero in P for Pennsylvania in a reworking of a
05:34poster from a film which is about the violent overthrow of a government.
05:38That particular individual has come to our bureau and tried to disrupt the staff, which
05:44I have no time for, but he didn't impress me.
05:48Ramilda has received threats.
05:50She's concerned her electoral bureau might be targeted.
05:53She's not taking any chances.
05:55The drop boxes are bolted to the floor.
05:59There are surveillance cameras and boulders around the building to prevent vehicles from
06:03ramming into it.
06:05This political climate, it's beyond hate.
06:09It's venom.
06:10It's frightening.
06:11I think we're a microcosm of what's happening in the country and we are on the front lines.
06:17The vote has already started.
06:19All the talk over the risk of fraud has made some people nervous.
06:22I didn't believe in the integrity of the election in the previous one and this one's extremely
06:26important so I feel that it was better to come in person and do it.
06:31TJ is part of the grassroots drive to register voters.
06:35In Pennsylvania, the vote could be decided on tiny margins.
06:38We have multiple places throughout the county that we put a desk, we put a tent up and we
06:42get them to convert from Democrat to Republican or vote or register for the first time.
06:48In 2016, Trump flipped Luzerne County, which had long been a Democratic stronghold and
06:53won the state of Pennsylvania by a narrow margin.
06:56In 2020, Trump won the county again but lost the overall vote in Pennsylvania to Biden.
07:02TJ believes Trump won the previous election.
07:05He's convinced the Democrats cheated.
07:08They want to screw us over, they want us to shut up and they want to take our country
07:12and we are saying no more, no more.
07:16We are going to shout, we're going to scream, we're going to vote and we're going to take
07:21our country back.
07:22Voter fraud is extremely rare in the United States.
07:25An Associated Press review of the six battleground states Trump disputed in the 2020 election
07:30found only 475 potential cases of voter fraud, which would not have changed the result in
07:36any state.
07:38Efforts to sow doubt in the integrity of US elections is really about trying to undermine
07:45faith through repetition.
07:46It is about getting attention on the claims of doubt and not about actually trying to
07:51address security of the vote.
07:52I think what is likely is incidences of like stochastic terrorism, where you have incidences
07:58of violence across the country in various places.
08:01Democrats are going door to door in Luzerne County because here every vote will count.
08:05They say the Republicans are spreading lies, laying the groundwork to contest the outcome
08:10if Trump loses.
08:12It's psychological warfare.
08:13It's a blatant attempt to spread propaganda, to spread disinformation among Democratic
08:20voters.
08:21I think that it probably will turn into somewhat of a lengthy court battle.
08:26On a street a few blocks down, a pro-Trump household.
08:30A neighbour has made her own sign in response.
08:33I looked across the street and I saw these, like, Democrats are pedophiles and Democrats
08:40are terrorists and I'm not a Democrat.
08:42I'm a registered independent, but I am voting straight blue.
08:48I don't understand there are so many that still believe the lies.
08:52If there's any fraud, I would say it would be on the other side, or maybe planning fraud.
08:57He's got a sign over that says fight, fight, fight.
09:00I say vote, vote, vote.
09:03Officials hope that disinformation and distrust won't lead to a nightmarish scenario on or
09:08around election day.
09:14Craig Capitas, based on your Pennsylvania experience, elections are not for the faint
09:18of heart.
09:19There's always tense moments, but when you look at those images of those two houses across
09:26the street from one another, what's your reaction?
09:31My reaction is that perhaps the most common of all follies is to passionately believe
09:38in the palpably not true.
09:40You know, this is the chief occupation of Trump cultists and his enablers, the jellyfish
09:46of the Republican Party.
09:50What can one say at this point?
09:54Information is not truth.
09:57And ignorance is now the lodestar for what's ailing America.
10:03And boy, isn't that dangerous to say.
10:06You're calling the American people, the people of Pennsylvania ignorant.
10:09No, I'm not.
10:11What I'm saying is that they are undereducated.
10:14They are ill-informed.
10:16And if you look at U.S., the most important statistic you can get out of the United States
10:20government right now is that 52 percent of adult Americans cannot read beyond a sixth
10:28grade level.
10:30That's 11 years old.
10:33This is why we're seeing this.
10:35And I will leave it to others to parse all the specific reasons, the sociological reasons
10:41for this.
10:43But it's ignorance on a massive scale.
10:47As one of the characters in the in the story said, it's propaganda.
10:54And you know, Trump's favorite billionaire, his pet billionaire, Elon Musk, is certainly
10:59doing a lot of the peddling here.
11:02But it's it's it's it's it's this ignorance.
11:06Mike Madrid, how would you characterize it?
11:08Well, I would characterize it a little bit differently.
11:11I'd say it's willful ignorance.
11:13This is not just a problem endemic to the poorly educated.
11:17This is a problem that is endemic to a part of the country, half of the country that wants
11:22to see a different vision of America and wants to find the information that confirms their
11:28existing biases.
11:30I don't believe that's entirely a problem of being poorly educated, although that's
11:35part of it.
11:36The other part is just willful ignorance.
11:38It's a desire to excuse data, excuse evidence, excuse facts, so that it comports to your
11:44reality, comports to the reality that you want to see.
11:47That doesn't make it any less dangerous, by the way.
11:49In many ways, that makes it more dangerous, because what we are seeing is an entire political
11:54party setting up the predicate that this election is going to be a fake election or that it
11:59will be stolen.
12:00It's a very sophisticated strategy of a number of different tactics, including flooding the
12:07zone with what we call flooding the zone with bad polling, showing Trump winning.
12:12Some of our main media outlets on the right saying that it's virtually impossible for
12:16Kamala Harris to win, convincing millions and millions of Americans that there's no
12:21way he can possibly lose, holding rallies in blue states to create the imagery that
12:28even Democrats are coming over and we're on the verge of an enormous landslide victory,
12:33so that in the great possibility that when Kamala Harris wins the election, they will
12:38have the groundwork to mobilize millions and millions of America in an angry, chaotic fashion.
12:46Is it a question of, I'll put it to you, Marietta Shaka, is it about the message that's being
12:52put out or is it about the way it's being put out?
12:56Gone are the days when an entire nation would get its news from the eight o'clock television
13:03broadcast bulletins.
13:06Now a lot of people want their news feeds to comfort what they already believe.
13:11Well, but I think we've not yet mentioned the elephant in the room, which is that Donald
13:17Trump himself is feeding a narrative that if he were to lose this election, as he has
13:23four years ago, that there must be foul play.
13:27So it's not just people behind their computers trying to find information or talking in groups
13:32of people of like-minded convictions.
13:34It is a political leader that is playing with fire.
13:38And I think that that is really dangerous.
13:40And we've seen Elon Musk spreading this same lie on X, the platform that he owns, but that
13:46he's also using as a mouthpiece for the Trump campaign, where he basically says, if Kamala
13:52Harris wins, there must be fraud in the elections, where, as was mentioned in your report earlier,
13:59there is no evidence of tampering or of any wrongdoing in the previous elections.
14:06There is not now.
14:07And so it is important to keep assessing any claims, because everybody has their democratic
14:15rights that should be respected.
14:17But it is incredibly dangerous playing with fire on the part of Donald Trump and his supporters
14:23who are willfully spreading lies.
14:26And it's a combination of the content.
14:28So lies around the elections, other disinformation, drumming up violence, lies, including through
14:35manipulated images, and the way in which social media companies, with their data-based targeting
14:41of advertisements and messages, are actually tools in this propaganda machine.
14:49Tools in this propaganda machine, and as we're speaking, the Harris campaign rejecting fresh
14:54claims by Donald Trump of election fraud in Pennsylvania.
14:59Mike Madrid, when is it, could there be such a thing as too much, where at one point there
15:07is a backlash?
15:11Too much in regards to the information or the messaging that's coming through?
15:14The messaging.
15:15I mean, we're still waiting for it.
15:19It's been going on for many, many years now.
15:21I think what was just described is exactly right.
15:25It's the repetition of propaganda.
15:26And what I'm seeing now with a lot of Republican activists is, again, as I mentioned, is willful
15:30ignorance.
15:31People will even acknowledge that it's propaganda, but they're okay with it because it comports
15:35with their reality.
15:37So no, I'm not seeing, there certainly won't happen, that backlash won't happen on a grand
15:41scale.
15:42People are choosing to lean into the propaganda.
15:45They're choosing to follow somebody that they know is not being truthful.
15:49People are choosing to follow somebody who will acknowledge that they're not telling
15:54the truth.
15:55That they'll say, you know, maybe there is no truth to the immigrants eating cats and
15:59dogs and pets story, but at least now we're talking about the issue that we want to talk
16:03about.
16:04By any other standard, this would have, you know, this candidacy would have been dismissed
16:09years ago.
16:11So no, if there is a backlash, we're talking about the margins here.
16:15And I do believe incidentally that there will be a higher number of Republican defections
16:21specifically in Pennsylvania, which is the state where we had the highest number of Republican
16:26defections in 2020.
16:28We will have a higher number this election cycle, but we're talking about maybe nine
16:32to 11%, 10% range.
16:35We're not talking half or 60% of Republicans breaking the fever dream and saying, oh, you
16:40know what?
16:41Maybe I'm tired of the nonsense.
16:42Maybe I'm tired of being lied to.
16:44We're talking very, very marginal movements on the fringes of this thing.
16:48Yeah.
16:49And the way it's being covered in this homestretch has also been divisive.
16:55Campaigns drive ratings thanks to fervor and outrage.
16:59Since this week began, let's see, there's been the outrage of Puerto Rico being described
17:03at a Trump rally in New York as a floating island of garbage.
17:07Joe Biden calling Trump supporters garbage, which provoked a backlash.
17:12Trump seizing the moment at the wheel of a garbage truck Wednesday at a rally in Green
17:17Bay, Wisconsin.
17:22Joe Biden's comments were the direct result of Kamala's decision to portray everyone who
17:28isn't voting for her, which is a lot of people, as evil and subhuman.
17:34And we know it's really what they believe because look at how they've treated you.
17:40They treat you like garbage.
17:41They treat our whole country like garbage with open borders, with all of the horrible
17:45things they've done to hurt our country, inflation that should have never happened.
17:50And we know we have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald
17:58Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other.
18:05That is who he is.
18:08This is someone who is unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance, and
18:18out for unchecked power.
18:21Craig Capitas, she made those statements in Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania.
18:27How does that resonate with Pennsylvania voters, her message?
18:30Well, I think it does.
18:32I think there's going to be a big surprise in Pennsylvania.
18:35I think viewers should be aware when you hear Bucks County.
18:39Bucks County is a suburb of Manhattan that has nothing to do with Pennsylvania, despite
18:44what you might hear on American cable channels.
18:48I think what it's going to come down to in Pennsylvania, and this is just my gut instinct,
18:55is that the women of Pennsylvania are going to put Donald Trump in his grave, his political
19:02grave, not the men.
19:05This, I think, is the most important thing.
19:06There are 90 million women voters, from what I understand.
19:1070% of the women in the United States are registered.
19:13So if the women get out in Pennsylvania, let alone the other states, I think it's going
19:19to put Harris over the top.
19:24But I don't think the American media, not this show.
19:26We cover it differently here in France.
19:29But I think the American media, for the past 10 years, has normalized the tyrant.
19:34They don't know how to cover this clown stick.
19:40Things like, for instance, fact-checking in real time during debates, it kind of doesn't-
19:44How boring.
19:45How boring.
19:46You know?
19:47The problem with describing Trump accurately as the leader of the turd Reich is that ridicule
19:56is a shield.
19:58It's not a weapon.
20:02And as much as the satirist in me, the writer in me, wants to ridicule Trump, I don't think
20:09we can afford to do it anymore.
20:11This man is a tyrant.
20:14And if the women don't get out to vote, the world is going to be stuck with him for another
20:21four years.
20:22And God help us, we're going to be whistling past the graveyard.
20:26Maria Turcheca, this sort of blurring of lines, isn't there, between what is fact, what is
20:34entertainment?
20:35As Craig was just mentioning, a lot of the news, the way people are getting informed
20:42now is by looking at comedians and satirists on both sides.
20:46What does that tell you about the age we live in?
20:49Well, what we're seeing in the United States is that reality is stranger than fiction.
20:53And it's a very dangerous reality.
20:55Craig mentioned that the women need to come out to vote.
20:58And this is, of course, because women's rights are under pressure.
21:01They're being taken away.
21:03The need to have an abortion is removed as a choice for women, which is putting women's
21:09lives at risk.
21:11Reproductive health rights are under pressure at the hands of the Republicans.
21:15So I really hope that this is not just a male versus female issue, where females have to
21:20come out to defend their own rights, but that there will be masses of Americans who will
21:25say we do not want to go back in time.
21:28We want to not surrender the rights that we have fought for for decades and sometimes
21:34centuries.
21:35And of course, what Donald Trump and the Republican Party are doing with their vile comments about
21:40immigrants is scapegoating the most vulnerable people in a society, in the margins of a society.
21:47And it's a deliberate strategy.
21:49And that's how it should be seen.
21:50So this whole entertainment value, to me, it's it's you know, it's horrifying.
21:55I don't see how this can be entertaining.
21:57And I think it is it is a tragedy that he was able to build a fan base, a popularity
22:06through entertainment, television and then step into politics and really, you know, still
22:11sort of seeing it as one big game show, it seems, whereas what is at stake is democracy.
22:17And indeed, with huge ripple effects around the world, including here in Europe.
22:21Yeah.
22:22And so, Marietta, when you talk about it being truth being stranger than fiction right now,
22:27we're seeing, by the way, those are live images from New Mexico of Donald Trump at a rally.
22:34Do you have the sense that the United States is no longer what it was?
22:41Of course, this is very clear.
22:42I mean, it's not a reliable partner.
22:45A lot of countries are preparing and probably should be preparing more intensely for a Trump
22:52victory.
22:53We've already heard J.D.
22:54Vance, his vice presidential candidate, threatening Europeans with the U.S. stepping out of NATO
23:00if the EU were to regulate Elon Musk's companies.
23:05How do you explain it?
23:07Why is there this nativist withdrawal from its role as the keeper of the global Pax Americana?
23:15Well, because Trump is ultimately playing internationalist sentiments and everything
23:23is a bargain for him and his supporters.
23:27So they're perfectly fine to start trade wars to alienate Europe if, you know, if it gets
23:33him to the vote first or if it can support Elon Musk, whose dollars they're now very
23:39interested in.
23:40And of course, Elon Musk must be supporting Trump and Vance because he hopes that his
23:46businesses will benefit or that some regulations will be weakened vis-a-vis the tech sector.
23:53It's all instrumental.
23:55And I think that that is the tragedy.
23:57There's hardly any principle left.
23:59There's hardly any appreciation of history in the broad sense of the word, whether it
24:03is the post Second World War world order that actually America has built or whether it is
24:10an appreciation for how easily democracy can be destroyed by people who are attacking it.
24:18And I think historic lessons should probably inform people as they go to the vote in the
24:23United States.
24:24So Donald Trump, as you heard Kamala Harris say in that clip, may be aggrieved.
24:29But there are legitimate grievances among his supporters.
24:33And let's take a look at the U.S.'s place on the globe in statistics.
24:37The U.S. share of the world economy has grown in the past year to a whopping 26 percent.
24:43But that's not taking into account huge inequality.
24:45What you're looking at is if you adjust a GDP per person regarding purchasing power
24:51parity, the U.S. falls behind China and the European Union to 15 percent of the world's
25:00growth, not 26 anymore.
25:06So Mike Madrid, is Donald Trump tapping into something real?
25:12Yeah, there's no question.
25:15This is not all entirely a facade.
25:17There's a lot of it.
25:19To dismiss the realities of what is happening with our non-college educated working class
25:26would be just as dangerous as just dismissing it outright or saying that this is entirely
25:31just fraud.
25:32There is absolutely something real driving this.
25:35And I don't believe that it is being addressed or hasn't been addressed.
25:38My area of expertise is with Latino voters.
25:41It's the fastest growing segment of the electorate, and it's the one that is moving the furthest
25:45to the right the fastest.
25:48And poll after poll will show that there is severe economic stress and a lack of confidence
25:55in the rule of the Democratic Party to handle the economy.
26:00And there's a lot of data backing up that that is a very real, very valid sentiment.
26:05And what they have been hearing from this administration is the stock market's doing
26:09great.
26:10Everybody's retirement accounts are doing wonderfully.
26:13Jobs are up.
26:14Wages are up.
26:15But the affordability problem that is severely hampering our middle and lower classes is
26:21truly extraordinary.
26:23The tripling of interest rates that happened during this administration, the devaluation
26:27of our currency by 25 percent.
26:30This is a working class person's, I don't want to say a nightmare, but pretty darn close.
26:35And there has to be some acknowledgment that these problems are being fed by something
26:41very, very real, because they are.
26:43You heard Craig Kopitas at the beginning of our conversation describe the underfunding
26:47of education, the problems that ail middle and working class voters in the United States.
26:56Is it not the result seen from Europe, it looks like it, of decades of the gutting of
27:02public services in the United States, the fact that the government's been undermined
27:08in its efforts?
27:09Sure.
27:10Look, I'm not in the business of fixing the blame here.
27:15I'm in the business of finding the solutions.
27:19There's plenty of blame to go around in this country.
27:20I'm not pointing it out to the right or to the left.
27:23I'm saying we have a very serious problem that needs to be addressed.
27:26But my question is, why this isn't more the center of the conversation at this point?
27:31That I think is one of the great challenges of our time.
27:34You have both parties that are entirely consumed by cultural issues, entirely.
27:38You just heard the conversation talking about abortion rights and reproductive rights.
27:43I'm not going to dismiss that.
27:44I support those.
27:45But that is not the driving issue of the electorates.
27:48It is for a very small sliver of voters, especially those that have higher college education levels.
27:54What we're hearing over and over is the number one issue has been the economy.
27:59But both parties are speaking overwhelmingly to cultural issues.
28:03And that's a function, I think, of a broken political system that speaks just to the extremes
28:08of its own base, as opposed to trying to speak to the vastest growing segment of the electorate.
28:13All right.
28:14While the U.S. votes, war continues in the Middle East.
28:20And there is this sense of an interregnum, what with, it looks like at this hour, a plan
28:29to get a ceasefire for Lebanon that seems to be falling through.
28:34Meanwhile, you're seeing those images there.
28:37U.S. allies in Ukraine and South Korea huddling in Washington.
28:42Our correspondent Fraser Jackson joins us now.
28:46Fraser, earlier in the conversation, Marietta Shaka is talking about how the whole world
28:50is watching this election.
28:53And there's this kind of wonder.
28:56Is the U.S. in a sort of a vulnerable period during this interregnum where you have an
29:01outgoing president and we're not sure which side is going to win the election?
29:09Well, I think any country is in a vulnerable position when there's a transfer of power
29:17going on.
29:18That is obviously when any democracy is at its most vulnerable.
29:21And I heard from a source inside the British government that that was part of the reasoning
29:24behind why they had their elections when they did, was because they were slated to be around
29:29the same time as the American election.
29:31And there wasn't, they didn't see much benefit in having two of the Western powers going
29:37through this vulnerability period at the same time.
29:39Of course, it's one thing I hear mostly from my European colleagues here in the U.S. is
29:44obviously the worry about what the future looks like for NATO, for Ukraine.
29:51But also the Middle East is a big issue, which is also taking up a lot of political oxygen
29:55in the United States among the electorate as well.
29:58So it is a very, very touchy time at the moment.
30:02I think a lot of people are just kind of holding their breath, waiting to see what will happen
30:06one way or another.
30:08But of course, that amount of uncertainty is arguably something that could be hijacked
30:13and could be weaponized in some sense by some of the American foes and the foes of other
30:20Western nations as well.
30:22Mike Papadopoulos, just a short while ago, the U.S. Defense Secretary saying there are
30:28now 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk province near Ukraine's border.
30:35And we've had an intercontinental ballistic missile test by Pyongyang this Thursday.
30:41The U.S., again, we talk about the Pax Americana, they're the keepers of, they're key to security
30:48for so many countries.
30:50Is that what they told you?
30:53We're the key to giving countries money to secure themselves more or less now.
30:57I mean, I don't, you know, all those years I spent in Russia and the past three years
31:05covering this conflict in Ukraine, I don't know what to say anymore.
31:11This thing is going to go on and on.
31:13It's starting to, your question's a logical one.
31:17It's a reasonable one, Francois.
31:19But the Ukraine situation there, no matter who they bring in, the North Koreans, it's
31:25starting to reflect what's going on in the Middle East, which has been going on since
31:29biblical times.
31:30In the age of deterrence, during the Cold War, would the North Koreans have been able
31:34to do that?
31:35No way.
31:36Look, I can guarantee you, because I knew these people in the Reagan administration,
31:42the Bush one administration, if anyone, former government official like Trump had been having
31:52private conversations with the leader of Russia, they would have been prosecuted immediately.
31:59They would have been arrested.
32:01They would have been questioned.
32:03And this points to what I think Bob was saying about everyone's responsible here.
32:10The Democrats are feckless, gormless.
32:14They've got no guts whatsoever.
32:18This never, whether you were a Republican or a Democrat, this kind of nonsense, I guarantee
32:24you would never have taken place during the Reagan or Bush administration during the Cold
32:30War.
32:31It just wouldn't have happened.
32:34So I don't know what to say anymore, because my knowledge base of how governments, the
32:40U.S. government specifically, is supposed to react to an incursion of North Korean troops
32:46on NATO's western frontier, I don't have the data for that.
32:52That's not in my workbook anymore.
32:54Marietje Schaake, do you feel as though the U.S. is lacking leadership when it comes to
33:03issues like Ukraine?
33:05Well, the war in Ukraine has been allowed to go way too far, and there's been too much
33:11relying on the Ukrainians themselves without giving them the arms that they need.
33:15But what I think is another point of international politics that is really hitting home in the
33:20United States is, of course, the war in the Middle East, the situation in Gaza.
33:26And we just saw how close called some state elections will be.
33:30And I am really watching Michigan, for example, in the United States to see what impact the,
33:36in my opinion, very, very misguided U.S. support for Netanyahu's actions in Gaza and Lebanon
33:43will mean for domestic politics.
33:45So this whole idea that you can withdraw within your own country and then withdraw from the
33:51world is also not playing out.
33:53The domestic and the foreign affairs are very much intertwined.
33:56And the whole situation in Israel, Gaza, Lebanon really underlines that once more.
34:01Coincidence with the calendar, the election in the U.S. is next Tuesday.
34:05And guess who's hosting an EU summit next Thursday?
34:09That's right.
34:10It's the most Trump-friendly leader of the bloc of 27, Viktor Orban's Hungary.
34:16The man who said he'd pop open champagne bottles if Trump wins was earlier in Vienna to congratulate
34:24the new Putin-friendly far-right speaker of Austria's parliament.
34:29Marietta Schacke, you look at Viktor Orban, you think Hungary's a small nation inside
34:36of the European Union.
34:41This is just a bit of gesticulation.
34:45Or that summit in Budapest next week could be one where he pushes the EU to congratulate
34:54Donald Trump.
34:55Well, we'll have to see.
34:57But Viktor Orban and his Trumpian policies in the EU are unfortunately not just confined
35:03to his small country.
35:05The relatively small country that I'm sitting in, the Netherlands, has a government with
35:10a far-right party that won the largest segment of the vote in our country.
35:14It is a growing voice in our democracies, and it is really something to worry about.
35:21Democracy is under pressure globally, but also from within.
35:24And there used to be a time where the Orbans of this world were fighting to leave the European
35:28Union.
35:29Now they're celebrating the extent to which they're changing it from within.
35:33I think a summit will be merited after the U.S. election, no matter the outcome.
35:37So European leaders must come together and see what the implications are for the continent.
35:43But the whole idea that Orban or the Hungarian people or anyone in Europe would benefit from
35:48a Trump victory is, of course, is absurd.
35:52And the idea that the nationalism in the U.S. would somehow benefit his nationalism in Hungary,
35:59you know, it's all symbolic.
36:01Just very briefly on this, Mariette, as our Brussels correspondent Dave Keating points
36:05out in his Substack column, the far right is on the march throughout Europe.
36:08You just mentioned it.
36:10We can maybe call up a map that shows these are how far right nations have done throughout
36:16the continent.
36:17And Fraser will be happy to see we're including the U.K. in that, and countries where the
36:24far right is leading, is in government or leading the government, of course, the biggest
36:31one there being Italy in a coalition.
36:35Mariette, is this the Trump model that's being exported or are we giving Donald Trump too
36:42much credence?
36:43Well, Orban was there in politics a long time before Donald Trump was.
36:49The nationalists are working together.
36:51They are copying from the same playbook, which includes lies, which includes scapegoating
36:57immigrants, which really includes this illusion of bringing back control to within the borders.
37:06But it's unfortunately very popular.
37:07And I think it's related to the earlier point made that a lot of grievances are under addressed.
37:14But it's also related to the phenomenon that it doesn't even matter whether claims are
37:19true anymore.
37:21The sentiment is now what matters most.
37:24And in that kind of environment, lies are reigning.
37:30And it is very, very depressing to see how successful that strategy has been, both in
37:36the U.S. and in Europe.
37:37And it's important that people who care about the rule of law and the future of democracy
37:42stand up and say, we won't accept this.
37:44Corinna Peters, last year you went to, you got to see Donald Trump up close and personal.
37:51The people that were around him, this was in West Palm Beach.
37:55We had dinner.
37:56We had dinner together.
37:57At his base.
37:58People around him, they're clear eyed.
38:03For them, is it transactional?
38:04Yeah, it's totally transactional.
38:06I mean, you know, I was with him for two hours at a table having dinner.
38:12You know, you walk into this thing and, you know, they play music when he walks in.
38:16And you think you're going into the Burger Brau Keller of 1923, you're going to see some
38:21kind of push going on.
38:22But what it really is, it's like going to a North Korean dinner party with Kim Jong-un.
38:27You know, everyone stands up, they nod their heads.
38:31No one contradicts him.
38:35And what you leave with, you know, this is a guy who just wants people to pay attention
38:42to him.
38:43He will not let anyone get in a word edgewise.
38:46He asks insipid questions.
38:50You know, this thing where they played the Potemkin village people song, you know, YMCA.
38:58It's it's it's silliness and they nod.
39:00And if anyone some of the people at the table I was at with him, there are about six of
39:04us.
39:05A few of the people at the table I was with had disagreements with him on Ukraine.
39:12And Trump came down on them like the prince of friggin darkness.
39:18And everyone else at the table and those standing around the table listening to our conversation
39:23just nodded their heads, nodded their heads.
39:27And Mike Madrid, that's just kissing the ring so you can get what you want?
39:33I think so.
39:34I think one of the really dark parts of this chapter in American history, when we look
39:38back, will be how the enabling class.
39:40It was the enablers that allowed this to kind of grow and grow, grow, get out of control.
39:45There have always been these peculiar, strange, dangerous elements in society.
39:49There always will be.
39:51But the there's always also been filters that were people of courage and principle have
39:56stood up and said, this is not right.
39:58We're not going to allow this to grow anymore.
40:00There's a sense of national shame about these things.
40:03There are certain norms that you do not break.
40:07Donald Trump has surpassed all of those, not just doing it himself through sheer force
40:11of will, but by surrounding himself with a multitude of enablers who will do as the gentleman
40:17just said, just nod their heads at the absurdity.
40:20Nobody will say the emperor has no clothes.
40:23And until somebody does, it will continue to kind of proceed the way that it does.
40:27And unfortunately, it gets more difficult to stop it the larger it grows.
40:33And that's kind of where we find ourselves in this country of five days before an election.
40:38The problem here is, is if people with money vote for Trump, there's a good chance he's
40:44going to win again.
40:46Because one of the things that you go away with after sitting with him and his his friends
40:51and I you know, this wasn't a story, I was a private guest, but watching watching this
40:55and listening to it is that this group of people as wealthy as they are, when Trump
41:02says something like I'm going to eliminate income taxes 100% and we're going to make
41:07all our money off of tariffs, they believe him even though they should know better.
41:12That's the whole thing.
41:13Their eyes get wide.
41:15There's a yeah, there's a remarkable, remarkable to witness.
41:20There's a lot of magical thinking, Fraser Jackson going around.
41:25I know that you're everybody's wondering, looking for signs for try to read tea leaves
41:32at this point.
41:33So I'm going to put you on the hot seat and give you the final word.
41:37What's the mood where you are five days out?
41:41Honestly, Francois, who knows?
41:45It's been the last two weeks.
41:48Everybody is it's it's this is the closest election.
41:52I mean, in my relatively short life, this is the closest election I've ever seen.
41:56That is the same sentiment that is shared by pollsters who've been doing this for decades.
42:01Analysts who I talked to have been doing this for decades.
42:03One of my most beloved colleagues here at the White House is covered six presidents
42:08now.
42:09He's never seen anything like this before.
42:11It honestly is unprecedented is a word that gets banded around nowadays, but it is truly
42:15unprecedented.
42:16We've not seen anything like this in American political history, at least on a modern political
42:20history.
42:21And right now, everyone is trying to read into every small vote, every small poll that
42:26comes out.
42:27And honestly, the fact of the matter is, I think we're just going to have to wait till
42:29Election Day and see what happens.
42:31That is as that's as that's as acute as sharp as my political insight gets.
42:36So far.
42:37All right.
42:38Well, the France 24 debate is coming your way.
42:39We'll have special editions next week and of course, coverage on election night here
42:44on France 24.
42:45I want to thank you, Fraser Jackson.
42:46I want to thank Mike Madrid for being with us from Los Angeles.
42:49Marietje Schaake from Haarlem in the Netherlands.
42:51Craig Kopitas, thank you for being with us here in the France 24 debate.
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