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Uruguay | First results place broad front and national party in runoff
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1 year ago
In Uruguay, the first results are coming in after the general election held this Sunday. To expand our analysis, teleSUR talks to international law expert, Dra Ivonne Tellez. teleSUR
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00:00
In Uruguay, the first results are coming in after the general election that was held Sunday.
00:06
According to the first official results, the leftist-front coalition's candidate, YamandĂș
00:10
Orsi, reaches the 44 percent of the votes, while the National Party candidate, Ălvaro
00:16
Luis Delgado, reaches 27 percent of the votes.
00:19
For its part, the Colorado Party obtained 15 percent of the ballots.
00:23
If this trend is confirmed, as the vote continues its counting, Orsi and Delgado would face
00:30
each other in the November 24th runoff.
00:32
Also both consultations that accompanied the election day have not met the approval requirements.
00:45
And now, to expand our analysis regarding Uruguay's election day, we welcome international
00:50
law expert Dr. Yvonne TĂ©llez.
00:52
Yvonne, to first point out, how are you?
00:56
Welcome to From the South.
00:58
Thank you, Belén.
00:59
Delighted to be here.
01:01
It's a pleasure to have you.
01:02
Now, to begin the analysis, we would like to ask you about the context, really, that
01:08
brings Uruguayan people to this election day.
01:11
What do you think are the main topics, the main challenges, to really put in context
01:15
this election day in terms of an international perspective?
01:19
Perfect.
01:20
Well, the upcoming election in Uruguay poses a choice about the country's future regarding
01:31
whether to continue this slight shift toward more market-oriented policies and private
01:40
enterprises that were initiated by the current government, or to return to a focus more to
01:47
strengthen the role of the state in the economy, the social protection, and the idea of the
01:53
welfare state that was characterized between 2000 and 2015 with the other left governments.
02:03
What we have here are three main topics that bring Uruguayans to the ballots, and that's
02:10
crime, child poverty, and the aging population.
02:15
Those seem to be the main concerns, the primary concerns that voters are facing, taking into
02:22
account that Uruguay is one of the most stable democracies.
02:30
Maybe what this vote over here, this election, come in a time when Uruguay stands a model
02:38
of political and economic stability in the region, but we have those three topics that
02:47
are main concerns.
02:48
Also what we see is a probable sort of decision regarding which kind of model Uruguayans want
03:02
to preserve, either to go back to this idea of the welfare state, as I was saying before,
03:08
or to turn into a more neoliberal, more market-oriented country.
03:16
Okay, so just to go over the first results, according to these first results that are
03:25
coming in, and also confirming what some analysts were expecting, apparently the Broad Front
03:32
Coalition and also the National Party will be heading to a runoff on November 24th.
03:37
The Broad Front has had a significant difference in these first results, but how do you think
03:43
that the forces could realign in the lead to this runoff?
03:46
What can we expect in the coming weeks for these parties?
03:51
Okay, well, we have to consider as well that those topics have been a common point between
04:00
the candidates.
04:02
There are rising concerns, for example, about violent crime, drug gangs, drug dealing, corruption
04:09
that has been more in the right-wing discourse more than the left one, and the left one has
04:17
been more regarding, for example, the insecurity issues.
04:23
So what I'm saying here is that there are some topics that have been common between
04:28
those candidates, as they have said as well that they will not face like a real or a strong
04:38
opposition between lines because they have some points that have a coincidence.
04:47
However, if the trend continues, this possible victory of the opposition could or will occur
04:59
amid a scenario of significant negotiation, and maybe if they don't achieve this parliamentary
05:07
majority, that will be the first time that the Broad Front could govern in this way.
05:13
So that means that some of these proposals, I think more regarding the economy more than
05:20
political ones, could have an impact if we take into account as well that there have
05:27
been some strong points of difference, for example, in those civil liberties or regarding,
05:33
for example, what is being discussed regarding the plebiscite, the social security plebiscite,
05:43
or the other one regarding the possibility of those overnight searches.
05:51
So that could maybe represent a difference between both parties.
05:59
However, as we've seen in their discourses, I think that the main issue will be how, for
06:10
example, Uruguay will face those negotiations with China.
06:15
As the Broad Front has said, they will prefer rather to continue those negotiations, for
06:21
example, using the Mercosur organization and not just a direct one.
06:27
So maybe those trends we can see, if they don't achieve this parliamentary majority,
06:33
we can see some difficulties regarding their governability in this sense.
06:40
So you were just addressing the international aspect of this possible victory of the Broad
06:47
Front, and I would like to go a little bit deeper in the international repercussions
06:52
of this election.
06:53
What do you think that a potential win of the Broad Front could affect Uruguay's relation
06:58
with other countries in the region, or in the other case, what continuities could we
07:03
expect from a win of the national party?
07:06
What can we expect in terms of regional integration for Uruguay?
07:11
The common neighbors, the nature neighbors of Uruguay, talking about Argentina and Brazil.
07:24
This left-wing trend that we have, I'm talking about those, I mean Colombia, Brazil, with
07:31
Lula, with Petro, Chile as well, with Boric, could possibly reflect a deeper integration,
07:43
of course, because we're talking about this left-wing ideology.
07:48
However, one difficult thing will be negotiations with a natural neighbor such as Argentina.
07:54
However, Uruguay has been marked by a commitment, an historical commitment, to regional integration,
08:01
to the democratic values, to diplomacy, and in a way also Uruguay has positioned itself
08:08
as a natural mediator and a voice for cooperation within the region.
08:14
So I think what we can see if, for example, we have the Broad Front achieving the next
08:23
presidency could be to strengthen the Mercosur membership.
08:28
If we consider that Uruguay is a founding member of Mercosur and has been a strong advocate
08:35
for this economic integration, what we can see is maybe strengthen these lines and these
08:40
global south lines in the southern corn.
08:45
Maybe we can, I think we can think about this relationship with Brazil and Argentina, as
08:52
I was saying, maybe kind of attention regarding, for example, Argentina's new points with,
09:03
for example, with Mercosur or with these natural ties.
09:08
Maybe also we can see or we can foresee, for example, this participation in UNASUR and
09:15
CELAC.
09:16
I think, I mean, what I'm trying to say is that UNASUR, CELAC, Mercosur could be this
09:25
strong and natural scenarios for Uruguay's usual position towards a regional integration
09:33
and could be strengthened.
09:36
Maybe if we don't see the Broad Front coming to the presidency, what we're going to see
09:45
is a natural trend just to move away from this original integration and maybe try just
09:51
to do a direct kind of negotiation with new partners, such as the BRICS, such as China
10:00
that is turning into this big, big new partner for the region.
10:08
I don't think that this progressive diplomacy and human rights position that Uruguay has
10:16
upheld during this time will be changed or moved by either one of the candidates.
10:27
But what we can foresee is this trade diversification efforts regarding which way Uruguay is going
10:38
to prefer, even, I don't know, more diversified trade agreements, more liberal ones, or maybe
10:49
more traditional ones, regional integration in a way to strengthen this welfare state.
10:58
Okay, so that is interesting as you were saying that we could be looking at a stronger participation
11:06
from Uruguay in the integration mechanisms, such as you were mentioning, so we will be
11:10
following on that trend.
11:13
So before we finish, IvĂĄn, I would like to ask you also during this election day, Uruguayans
11:18
also voted on two different consultations, and for the looks of the first results, both
11:26
were voted no.
11:28
So I would like to ask you if there were any opinions on your part on what could indicate
11:33
what led to this decision, and also to better understand how these consultations came into
11:39
place in this election day.
11:43
Of course, well, the plebiscite on social security emerged as a response to a recent
11:52
law passed by the government, by the current president, Lacayo Pou, what he did was to
11:59
erase the retirement age from 60 years to 65 years old, and to extend this individual
12:07
savings system managed by the pension fund administrations.
12:11
So this reform generated a strong reaction from some sectors of society, not all of them,
12:20
particularly those of this labor union sector, but there was a minority that moved this plebiscite,
12:31
they just reunited the 10% of the electorate, they collected the signatures of the 10% of
12:37
the electorate, that was the necessary or the requirement to bring the reform to a public vote.
12:43
So what Uruguayans were choosing today was three main elements, three main issues regarding
12:54
the Uruguayan pension system.
12:56
The first one, to reduce the retirement age again to 60, to align the minimum pensions
13:03
to the national minimum wage, and to eliminate those funds, those trust funds, because according
13:12
to the initiative, in a way, is like, if they try to avoid any profit, any additional
13:22
profit for the pension system.
13:25
So maybe what could be thought of the result regarding the no, not more, one of them was
13:38
that the initiative, as I said before, was just generated by a small group from the population.
13:49
And this means that they had to make like a stronger change and regarding the law, okay,
14:01
and the three candidates, the running candidates or the principal candidates, they were expressing
14:07
again, like a strong opposition to this reform.
14:12
Maybe what could be explained regarding the result, the no result, is that this was promoted
14:23
by the current candidates.
14:30
And what also one strong voice was former President Mujica that was saying that to agree
14:40
on the plebiscite reform could bring kind of a chaos to the pension system.
14:46
So maybe this was a concern, this was an economic concern.
14:52
That was one thing.
14:54
The other one was the constitutional reform proposing to revise one of the constitution
15:01
articles, and that is that the home and houses and homes are inviolable sanctuaries, right?
15:14
And no one can enter at night without the head's consent.
15:19
So one of the arguments here also was to try to just eliminate this restriction regarding
15:30
the night prohibition to enter into the house or to enter into homes because or in a way
15:41
to control insecurity, to control drug dealing, to control other possible crimes that could
15:50
happen overnight.
15:53
But that means that this has to be a constitutional reform.
15:59
And I think one of the strongest arguments against it was that it was not necessary to
16:06
just make a constitutional reform, but this can be done without this strong reform.
16:14
Because first of all, the possibility, for example, to combat microtraffic, to combat
16:24
drug dealing, to combat this insecurity could be done when, I mean, entering, for example,
16:31
into storage facilities or secure storage facilities overnight.
16:38
Also because, I mean, microtrafficking could happen within the homes of people, but the
16:46
big drug and the big crimes or the main drug dealing points is not happening within houses
16:57
or homes of normal people, but they just can be happening, for example, in those secure
17:03
storage facilities or this other kind of places.
17:08
And as according to the current laws, they can enter, I mean, security forces and the
17:16
government could and state could enter into those storage facilities without reforming
17:22
constitution.
17:23
I think also one of the concerns could be that this is, in a way, a measure to overcome
17:32
or to facilitate an unlawful use of force that could bring some other risks regarding,
17:40
for example, just the normal civil liberties of people.
17:43
So that could be a concern regarding, for example, the past dictatorships and what Uruguayans
17:52
have faced before regarding the constriction of civil liberties.
17:57
So I think that will be a concern and maybe that's not the best way to deal with this
18:03
insecurity problems or these drug dealing problems at this time.
18:08
Thank you, Yvonne, for joining us in from the South and really helping us understand,
18:15
better understand what is happening today in Uruguay and we'll be sure to follow closely
18:20
on this country in the coming hours and days.
18:27
Pleasure is all mine.
18:30
That was Dr. Cheles, international law expert on Uruguay's general election.
18:35
That is underway today.
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