00:00Hello, welcome to the Met Office
00:0110-day trend.
00:03We're going to see some big changes
00:04with the weather over the next 10
00:06days.
00:07Good news if you don't like the
00:08rain.
00:09This is a fairly typical scene on
00:11Wednesday, but the change isn't
00:13happening immediately.
00:13So for the next few days, we can
00:15expect more showers and the
00:17weather to remain on the cool side.
00:19But then, especially through
00:21the weekend, we are expecting
00:22things to turn a lot drier,
00:24sunnier, and
00:26eventually things warming up a
00:28little bit. We're not promising
00:29much heat at this stage, just
00:30temperatures getting back closer
00:32to or a bit above average
00:34as we go through next week.
00:35But it will be significant because
00:36it has been on the chilly side
00:38for a while now.
00:40What's going on?
00:41Well, simply, we're shifting
00:42pressure patterns, low pressure
00:43dominating through Wednesday.
00:45Fast forward to Monday and
00:47it's high pressure sitting across
00:49the UK.
00:50Show you those again.
00:51Low pressure on Wednesday.
00:52Weather front's bringing rain
00:53isobars close together.
00:55It's blustery, it's gusty, and
00:57it's cool by the time we get to
00:58Monday. High pressure, not as
01:00many isobars.
01:01The winds will be lighter, high
01:02pressure bringing dry weather and
01:04probably a fair bit of sunshine
01:06too.
01:07That's next week.
01:09Before then, we've still got low
01:10pressure dominating on Thursday,
01:12bringing cool and showery
01:13conditions across the East Coast,
01:15particularly across Northern
01:16England early on.
01:17But it should dry up a little bit
01:19here. Heavy showers from Northern
01:20Ireland through Wales, the
01:21Midlands, across Southern England
01:23too. Some sunny spells,
01:25but no great warmth.
01:27We might get into the teens across
01:29the South. Temperatures again
01:30across much of Scotland, despite
01:31some dry and bright weather, only
01:33nine or 10 Celsius.
01:34So it's still on the cool side.
01:37The low pressure does ebb away
01:38during Thursday, but it's not
01:40immediately replaced by that
01:41high. We've got another low to
01:43contend with drifting across the
01:44South during Friday night.
01:46That could bring some heavy rain.
01:48Notice it's not a particularly
01:49intense low.
01:50There's not a lot of isobars with
01:51it. And that's because it's not
01:53really developing much.
01:55We're not calling it an
01:56intensifying area of low pressure.
01:58And the reason for that, well, we
01:59have to look high up in the
02:00atmosphere at the jet stream.
02:02Now, this is the picture for the
02:04next couple of days.
02:05We're on the northern side
02:06of the jet stream, the cooler
02:08side. Here's that low that's moving
02:10in for Friday and Saturday.
02:12And notice the jet's not
02:13particularly strong.
02:15The pink colour is the core of the
02:17jet, not especially
02:19dominant. So that's why that low
02:20isn't really intensifying as it
02:22moves across the UK.
02:23Where the jet does get really
02:25lively through the next few days is
02:27out in the Atlantic.
02:29And this is kind of triggered by
02:30the severe storms that's going on
02:32across the US at the moment.
02:33But look at the jet stream by
02:34Saturday. It's really driving south
02:36and some brighter pinky purpley
02:38colours there, the core of the jet
02:39intensifying.
02:41And what happens is the jet dives
02:42south and that amplifies,
02:45as we say, the jet and pushes it
02:46northwards to the west
02:48of the UK and eventually then
02:50arches over the UK.
02:52And we're in an upper ridge
02:54where on the warmer side of the jet
02:56by Sunday and it's in this
02:58upper ridge area, whereas at the
03:00surface we're going to see that high
03:01pressure starting to move
03:03in. So the high pressure taking
03:05control through the weekend.
03:07So we're really expecting this
03:08changeover during the weekend.
03:09Saturday, still a fair few showers
03:11around some sunshine.
03:12The showers fading through the day
03:14and generally most places
03:16set for a fine day on Sunday with
03:18some sunshine, but it doesn't warm
03:20up immediately. It takes a while.
03:21So gardeners, well, still take note.
03:23Frost's possible, especially so on
03:25Sunday morning.
03:26Yes, that warming process is going
03:28to take a while. The cold air still
03:29in place during Saturday.
03:31But let's build the high pressure
03:32in through Sunday and Monday and
03:34notice how those blue colours
03:36disappear.
03:37But the yellow and orange colours
03:39don't really swamp the UK.
03:41Still some tinges of green there by
03:42Monday. So we're only really at this
03:44stage looking at temperatures
03:45getting back closer to
03:47average, especially so in the
03:49east.
03:50Then what happens next week?
03:51Well, that high pressure should
03:53stick around.
03:54It looks like it's going to
03:55dominate.
03:56There are weather fronts out in the
03:57Atlantic and some uncertainty about
03:59how far they will push in the
04:00threat of some bringing some rain
04:02across the northwest.
04:03But for most places, that high
04:05pressure promises a lot of dry
04:07weather next week.
04:08Many places seeing sunny spells
04:10by day.
04:11Big question mark, how much will we
04:13warm up?
04:14And for that, well, day by day
04:15variations on the position
04:17of the high and the exact
04:20direction of the wind.
04:21Well, that will have a big impact
04:23on what we see temperature wise.
04:25Will it really warm up that much?
04:26Well, the continent at this stage
04:28hasn't warmed up.
04:29So even if we get the winds from
04:30the continent, not necessarily
04:32looking at temperatures rocketing,
04:33but it should certainly feel quite
04:36a bit warmer than it has done for
04:37the past few days.
04:39And how long will the high pressure
04:40last? Well, it looks like most of
04:42next week. This graphic
04:44telling us that the high pressure
04:45will dominate for a while.
04:47Now, don't worry too much about the
04:49numbers. It's mostly about the
04:50colours.
04:51These are the computer runs over
04:53recent days and these are the
04:54forecast days going along
04:56the top. So the weekend is here
04:59and you can see the blue colours
05:00dominating for the next two or
05:02three days. Blue means low
05:04pressure. And as we've seen, that's
05:05what we're expecting low to stick
05:07around. But then the high pressure
05:09builds in and it probably will
05:10last. It looks like well into
05:12next week and
05:14only some uncertainty as we get
05:15towards right towards the end of
05:17next week, as you'd expect.
05:19That is eight or nine days
05:21away. So for the majority,
05:23dry weather will dominate
05:24throughout next week.
05:25We should see some sunshine and
05:26we'll probably see those
05:27temperatures rising a little bit
05:30at this stage.
05:31As always, with the 10 day trend,
05:33things can vary day on day.
05:35So make sure you keep up to date
05:36with the very latest forecasts by
05:38sticking with the Met Office and
05:40going to our website, downloading
05:42an app or following us on social
05:44media.
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