00:00Some of the estimates and yesterday we came up with an estimate from the damage from Milton
00:06We did and all of these think about all these
00:10Personal tragedies that the survivor spoke about in that sound clip there so many people have lost
00:17So much and we're thinking about all the people that have been impacted in that
00:20Very profound way beyond all those personal impacts when you sum up the economic damage
00:26We're talking about a preliminary estimate of a hundred and sixty to a hundred eighty billion dollars in total damage and economic loss
00:32This is another huge number with one of Florida's most destructive hurricanes
00:38Yeah, take a look at the billion dollars disasters here. So that puts Milton in
00:43conversation with Helene in
00:45And deputy as well. Yeah, it's not good company
00:49You know here that was always like to put we always like to put the individual storms into context
00:54So you can see how it compares to other disasters and you see Milton's 160 to 180 billion dollars in total damage and economic loss
01:01A bit underneath Ian, of course, which is a major storm with that catastrophic storm surge across, Florida
01:08and then of course Helene 225 and 250 billion dollars a lot of this there was not a
01:15Flood disaster in the southern Appalachians as there was with Helene
01:18But still lots of wind damage lots of storm surge damage and all that heavy flooding rainfall
01:24Means that Milton goes down in the record books as yet another major hurricane hit and damage producer in, Florida
01:30You know when the season before the season started we were so concerned about
01:34Hurricanes that would have the ability to be a strengthening hurricanes as they went toward the coast and we've seen that with a number of
01:41Hurricanes this year and it's it's getting awfully expensive the damage we've seen this year
01:46It is escalating fast and we were concerned about that with this season and take a look at what's just happened in the last three weeks
01:54Helene and Milton combined add up
01:59Billion dollars in total damage economic loss
02:02That's almost half a trillion or another way to look at that is 2% of the United States gross domestic product
02:09You know
02:09There are some economists that are forecasting some growth of about 1 or 2 percent in US GDP this year
02:15Because of lot of these losses that may not happen or it may be challenged
02:23Here quickly and we we don't have a lot of time so we'll go over this quickly here, but
02:27Already, we're sounding the alarm
02:29Listen, you know me. I'm an avid person on X formerly Twitter
02:34I've already getting tons of questions how in the world can you say this so early?
02:39Well, there's our moderate risk John. Let's go to what I always refer to as basic meteorology
02:46That's right an area of high pressure
02:48Building high pressure delivering cool air here into the eastern part of the United States
02:53It's got a flood in but look underneath that area of high pressure. That's pattern recognition for trouble
02:59Yeah, because what happens is you'll get a frontal boundary down there
03:01You'll probably get some showers and thunderstorms and then the easterly flow tries to bring in tropical moisture in so the question is is okay
03:09You have showers and thunderstorms there doesn't mean you're gonna get development
03:13The one limiting factor this time of the year is wind shear, right?
03:18Sure is and so we typically look at where those unfavorable winds changing with in the atmosphere might be and we see none of it
03:26Limited wind shear. So all those things put together that's pattern recognition in our minds that goes
03:32This is an area that we're gonna have to watch for tropical storm development
03:35Now the question is John. All right, you get tropical development. Where is it gonna go now?
03:41obviously, it's very early in the game and certainly where it develops will make a
03:48Big impact on where it's going because it's a large area. It could be in the Northwest Caribbean
03:53It could be down in the Southwest Caribbean
03:55We're also tracking a dip in the jet stream across the Rockies
03:58But there are some things that we can let people know about now, right?
04:02It looks like there'll be two potential paths something that forms further south is more likely to go into Central America
04:07something that forms further in the Northwest Caribbean Sea is
04:10likely to get drawn up into the Gulf of Mexico and
04:13Odds would favor that heading back toward Florida right that type of situation because it looks like there's gonna be
04:19Protection for much of the central and western Gulf Coast and climatology when you look at storms in October
04:25Where do they go? They don't go into the central Gulf Coast. They don't go to Texas. They typically go toward, Florida
04:31So we're early in the game here, but like we do with Helene like we did with Milton
04:36We want to give people extra time because once this develops landfall could be quick
04:42That's how you weather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter Accuweather early continues after this
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