Betting the best games in college football Week 6

Ryan and Brad break down the best games of Week 6 in college football and how confident they are in it cashing

Transcript

00:00From that big spread let's go to the SEC matchup. Maybe a letdown spot for the Tennessee Volunteers.

00:06They're on the road in Fayetteville taking on, woo, Pig Sui and the Arkansas Razorbacks.

00:14Tennessee laying 13 and a half right now at BetMGM. Orvat, what is your confidence to cash?

00:22Yeah, I feel like the metrics and the numbers will tell you Tennessee is a good bet probably,

00:26especially under two touchdowns. But I took the points with Arkansas. This is almost like a little

00:31mini-fade of my Tennessee futures and my Nico Heisman, which to be honest doesn't really look

00:36good after Jalen Milrow, what he did last week. But my concern here would be Tennessee's defensive

00:42front, that pass rush, which is one of the best in the country. Their run game, which is averaging

00:46220 rushing yards against Arkansas' run defense. They could be able to run clock. They're going to

00:51hit explosive plays. This could get ugly. I'll take the points with Arkansas. I think this could

00:55be a potential look-ahead spot. Tennessee's schedule is going to get much tougher. My concern

00:59though is Taylon Green, the quarterback for Arkansas. He's already thrown five picks this

01:04season to just five touchdowns. Hell of a playmaker, man, but he's just sloppy with the football. This

01:08could get ugly. You can't turn the ball over against Tennessee. But I took the points with

01:12Arkansas here. There's going to be an upset. I hope it's not here, but I could see this being

01:16a sleepy spot for Tennessee. So I'm going to go with Arkansas. I'm guessing the model is going

01:19to disagree with me though. Muy interesante. Numbers near and says Tennessee, number nine,

01:24EPA per play offense, numero uno in the country. EPA per play defense, Arkansas 63 in offense,

01:3160 in defense. The projection at College Football Insiders, volunteers, 39.58. Hogs,

01:3816.41 for a difference of 23.17. Lay the chalk, says the EPA data out there at College Football

01:48Insiders. But Horvat says he's taken Arkansas plus the points. All right. Maybe the game of

01:54the weekend, Washington laying two and a half against the University of Michigan.

02:00Are the Wolverines going to be humbled here or Horvat your confidence to cash?

02:05Yeah. I wanted to make this my sledgehammer special man, but the number just got out a little,

02:09a little out of hand. I didn't expect to see the Huskies as a three point favorite. I think that

02:13the number's about right. It makes sense. I just took the money line and I would still do so.

02:17Hell, I would even lay the three. I know. Okay. So we had Max on and he made a good point.

02:21Washington last year, that was the best offensive line. One of them in the country.

02:25They had to replace that offensive line with five new starters. They struggled a little bit to hold

02:29up against the pass rush. And that's where Michigan's awesome. 10th overall, I believe

02:34in run defense grade, number one in pass rush grade, fourth in the country in sacks. I just

02:40wonder, like, is this a game where Josiah Stewart and Derek Moore and Mason Graham and Kenneth

02:45Grant, like all those guys, are they going to look to get natural pressure? Are we going to get

02:48wink Martindale looking to blitz 60% of the dropbacks against Will Rogers. I trust Will

02:53Rogers in the spot, not to turn the ball over. He's getting rid of the ball in 2.48 seconds.

02:58So he's going to get rid of the ball quickly. And then if I'm Washington on the defensive end,

03:01I'm stacking eight, nine in the box. And I'm going to say, Alex orgy beat us with your arm,

03:05man, because Michigan's run the ball on 65% of their plays over the last two weeks,

03:09the second highest rate and power for, uh, so I'm going with Washington. I think they

03:14win this game outright. All right. Projection is, uh, Michigan 21.90 Washington 21.49 advantage

03:23Wolverines, but I agree. Uh, I'm going to lay the chalk. They're Washington. They spring.

03:28It's not even an upset. They cover the two and a half there in the end. All right.