00:00So, we're down to the final four candidates to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative leader.
00:05So John and I thought we would rank them in terms of who's going to win.
00:10Well, Robert Jenrick is currently the favourite.
00:14Then we've got Kemi, where is she, she's over here, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverley and Tom
00:22Tugendhat.
00:23Now what's going to happen is they're going to engage in a sort of beauty contest at Tory
00:29party conference in Birmingham.
00:30They each get to speak for 20 minutes to put their case to the members.
00:36But actually, it'll be the MPs who vote first to reduce them to two.
00:40And then the last two names get put to the party members who will decide.
00:45So what's it going to be?
00:46Well, first of all, John, I think you're being very kind and calling it a beauty contest.
00:51Dare I remind you that this is politics, which is your business for ugly people.
00:58I think what's going to happen is that we're going to see, like you say, a parade and we're
01:04going to see quite a lot of these four people over the next couple of weeks.
01:10And can they change the fortunes of both themselves and their party?
01:17Or are they just going to end up with the front runner, and I think you and I disagree
01:24over who the front runner is, with the front runner taking the crown?
01:28Well, yes.
01:29I mean, at the moment, the bookies say that Robert Jenner is the front runner, although
01:34it started off with Kemi in the lead.
01:38I still think Kemi might make it in the end.
01:42But the really interesting question before we get there is all the sort of tactical considerations
01:47among Tory MPs as to who the final two are going to be.
01:52Because James Cleverley did extremely well in the first round, not so well in the second
01:56round of voting.
01:59And there was a lot of talk about how he was the stop Jenrick candidate for the MPs who
02:04don't like Robert Jenrick.
02:07But I think they're actually going to coalesce behind Kemi as the stop Jenrick candidate,
02:12because I think she's got the best chance of beating Robert Jenrick in the final round.
02:17So if we think, and I think we do, that these two are edging towards the top, do we both
02:28think that these two are going to be going out once the MPs have had their votes?
02:35Yes.
02:36Or is there a chance that there might be a late rally?
02:38Well, I mean, Tom Tugendhat, I think he's already too far behind.
02:42I think he's in fourth place.
02:44He doesn't have enough of a reason for people to vote for him.
02:48The big question is, because normally, this divides into sort of right versus left, who's
02:54going to be the most right wing candidate in the final two.
02:59James Cleverley is considered to be a centrist, you know, on the left of the party, although,
03:04you know, he's, you know, he was Home Secretary, he voted Leave, well, they all voted Leave,
03:10apart from Tom.
03:13And, you know, the big question is, which of these is going to be considered to be more
03:17right wing by the party members?
03:19Yes, I think you're right.
03:21And I think that's fascinating.
03:23So at the start of this competition, an awful lot of people thought that there would be
03:26a candidate from the right, and there would be a One Nation candidate, and that that would
03:31probably be somewhere between Tom Tugendhat, very much a standard bearer of the right,
03:38could James Cleverley pick up enough One Nation.
03:43But I think what's happened really, is that Tory MPs are interested in jobs.
03:49And so we have seen quite a lot of people go behind, not necessarily who they would
03:55agree with ideologically, but who they would agree with, because they're probably going
03:59to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
04:01Absolutely.
04:02There's been quite a bit of, well, I mean, let's be blunt, careerism, Victoria Atkins,
04:11One Nation, former Health Secretary, came out for Robert Jenrick, because she thinks
04:17Robert Jenrick's going to win, not because, as you say, not because she agrees with him.
04:22But I mean, the question is, I mean, right and left, very difficult terms in the modern
04:27Tory party.
04:28Which of those is the more right wing?
04:29I mean, it's hard.
04:30It's hard to say.
04:31Right.
04:32We're getting, we're getting rid of the One Nation tendency in the party.
04:36Is that the, is that the end of One Nation?
04:39I don't think so.
04:40I think the One Nation tendency is just going to, they're going to go off, they're going
04:45to lick their wounds, and they're going to wait, and they're going to stage a comeback.
04:51But this is a tendency within this party that has a long, a long and respected history.
04:59It isn't going away anytime soon.
05:01And to be honest, there are people from that side of the party who think that this is their
05:07party, and that it being dragged to the right by some of the more extreme people is not
05:14the party they joined.
05:15And both of these candidates are presenting themselves as unity candidates who can bring
05:21the One Nation side of the party with them.
05:24Which is really important.
05:25So they know that that's an important side that they've got to appeal to.
05:28And I think that unlike Liz Truss, who, you know, I expected her to move towards the centre
05:35ground once she won the leadership, and she didn't, which was absolutely disastrous.
05:39I think either of these two will move towards the centre ground of politics, because that
05:44I think is where, where elections are won and lost.
05:47That's interesting, because I was going to ask you who you thought Keir Starmer should
05:52want to go up against.
05:54He should want to go up against Robert Jenrick, because, you know, I mean, Robert Jenrick
05:59just looks like another white male politician, whereas Kemi looks different and sounds different
06:06and is different.
06:07I mean, she actually has, she does believe in stuff and has said some quite outrageous
06:12things.
06:13I mean, the only thing that I think can stop her is if she blows up her own campaign.
06:17If you're listening to Robert Jenrick, he does just sound exactly like Rishi Sunak.
06:23And Keir Starmer was able to dispatch Rishi Sunak quite easily at PMQs every week.
06:30So I think if you were looking from the Labour Party's point of view, I think you would probably
06:36want Robert to win.
06:38Kemi, it is them.
06:40And what we should say as well is whoever does win inherits quite a difficult...
06:48A very, very difficult situation.
06:49A very difficult situation.
06:51So you may think to yourself, goodness, this competition has been going on for quite a
06:56long time.
06:57And the truth is, because it has, and what's going to happen when we eventually get a winner
07:03is that it will be announced on November 2nd, which is really important for two reasons.
07:08One, it's just before we get the result of the United States election and we find out
07:15whether Donald Trump is president or not.
07:17So it will be difficult for this person to make their mark.
07:22November 2nd this year is also the Day of the Dead, which just shows you the kind of
07:30poison chalice that the person who takes over has.
07:33They have very few MPs now.
07:35They have a very difficult challenge to win in five years' time.
07:38Can they resuscitate this party after being elected on the Day of the Dead?
07:43Well, quite.
07:45History would suggest that whoever the next Tory prime minister is, it's not going to
07:50be any of these people because they may have to go through another one.
07:53But we'll see.
07:55Which of these potential leaders causes the most problems for Nigel Farage?
07:59Well, I mean, that's got to be their pitch, I think, to the party members rather than...
08:06I mean, it's the final pitch is that they've got to be the leader that will take back those
08:10votes from reform that they lent to reform.
08:16And that's why Robert Jenrick makes so much of immigration.
08:22As former immigration minister, he can argue that the previous government got it wrong.
08:29He will try to associate Kemi Bainock with the previous government, although he was part
08:34of it too.
08:35I mean, he resigned fairly late on.
08:39But I think it's all about authenticity, and Kemi Bainock's going to make the case
08:45that she is a proper conservative.
08:49She wants control of immigration too.
08:52She just doesn't go along with some of the wilder theories about withdrawing from the
08:56European Court of Human Rights.
08:58I think I agree with you.
08:59And I think it's because, and this is the double-edged sword for Kemi Bainock, is she
09:04is unpredictable if you're a member of the public or if you're another politician like
09:09Farage.
09:10And I think she will keep him on his toes.
09:13The problem is sometimes the things that she says unpredictably actually don't go down
09:18as well as she is expecting, and that can prove difficult for her.
09:22But I think Farage could easily outflank Jenrick, and that would be the problem that he would
09:31have, whereas Kemi would keep him on his toes.
09:35Well, I think Kemi would keep anybody on their toes.
09:38That's why I think she's their secret weapon.
09:40Right, so we're agreed that Tom's going to go out probably first.
09:47I think James Cleverley will then go out just leaving these two.
09:53You think he's going to win.
09:54I think she's going to win.
09:55We shall wait and see.
09:57Whoever does win, I think, will tack towards the centre in order to try and cause Labour
10:05the most difficulties in the next general election.
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