France's political deadlock: Why has Macron still not chosen a PM?

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00:00Still no white smoke, and after a week of there being, well, a daily

00:05assumed favourite candidate being put forward here in France as

00:08Emmanuel Macron's potential choice for the country's new Prime

00:11Minister, well, it appears we could all be back to square one.

00:14Macron has, throughout the week, received a series of different

00:17potential candidates in his attempts to find a consensus

00:20possibility that could possibly bring the French Parliament into

00:23some kind of working situation.

00:26But so far, he seems to have failed.

00:28That's why international affairs commentator Philip Turrell is

00:31joining me here on set.

00:32Good to have you with us, Philip.

00:33I mean, it is now, isn't it, the longest period since the creation

00:37of the Fifth Republic back in 1958 that France has been without a

00:40head of government.

00:42Why so long?

00:4451 days already.

00:4651 days without a Prime Minister.

00:48Well, we have got a Prime Minister, that's Gabriel Atalba.

00:50He's a caretaker Prime Minister because he no longer has a

00:53majority in the National Assembly with his party, Renaissance,

00:56that's Emmanuel Macron's party.

00:58So the search is on to find a replacement for him.

01:02And it is turning out to be a nightmare scenario for the

01:05president because every candidate he has in mind, that

01:09candidacy is shot down by the opposition who say, well, if that

01:12candidate does become prime minister, then we are going to

01:15immediately set up a vote of no confidence in the National

01:18Assembly and the prime minister and the government will fall

01:21because there will be enough support for that vote of no

01:23confidence to be accepted.

01:25So that is the predicament that Emmanuel Macron is in.

01:28We haven't seen anything like this for years and years in

01:31France. Normally, it's just a formality that once an election

01:34is taken over, the president will name a new prime minister

01:37and that prime minister will then form a government.

01:39The problem here is that no one has a majority.

01:41289 is that magic figure, Stuart, that you need the number

01:45of seats you need to be able to form a majority in the National

01:48Assembly. No party has it.

01:49The NFP, which is the La France Insoumise, France en Barde,

01:53far left party, the socialists, the Greens and the communists,

01:56they have 193.

01:57That's 100 seats short of that majority.

02:00And then you have the government Renaissance.

02:03They have 166.

02:04Still not enough.

02:05The National Rally of Marine Le Pen as a single party, they have

02:08the most seats, but only 142.

02:10So they can't form a government and neither can the traditional

02:13right wing, the Republicans.

02:15They only have 47 seats.

02:16That's their worst showing since the Fifth Republic.

02:20So we're in a situation where there is horse treading going on.

02:22There are arguments going on, almost insults being traded,

02:26because Emmanuel Macron has said he will not govern either with

02:30the left wing France en Barde or with the far right National

02:34Rally of Marine Le Pen.

02:36He would like to take a more consensual candidate in the middle.

02:38But both of those parties have said, well, if you take a consensual

02:40candidate in the middle, we will veto that and there will be no

02:43government. Most of this week, Philip, we've had two main potential

02:46candidates, haven't we, that everyone's been talking about.

02:48This is Bernard Kasnav and Xavier Bertrand.

02:50Tell us about that.

02:51OK, so there are in fact three right now.

02:54The first two, Bernard Kasnav, he is 61.

02:58He was a former socialist prime minister, so he's been there and

03:00done that and knows what he's going to do if he gets named.

03:04But he quit the Socialist Party in 2022 when they struck up an

03:08alliance with the far left and created his own movement called

03:11La Convention. So he is seen as a figure who doesn't really toe

03:15the line as far as the socialists are concerned today.

03:17They're saying he's an odd person out.

03:19And also the far right has said they will veto his candidacy.

03:22Second person, Xavier Bertrand, a lot of hope was given

03:25towards his candidacy.

03:27He's 59, he's a current regional council president of the

03:30Hauts-de-France, the northern French region.

03:32He was a former employment minister under Nicolas Sarkozy,

03:35but he quit the Republicans, the Conservative Party, and then

03:38rejoined it to try to become presidential nominee.

03:40He didn't manage that, but he's an arch enemy of Marine

03:44Le Pen, who also has a bastion in northern France.

03:46And she said, if he gets named, I'm going to veto that candidacy

03:49straight away. There's another one now, and that's Michel Barnier,

03:53who was a former agriculture minister in France.

03:58He's also been foreign minister, but he was best known as being

04:00the Brexit negotiator and a commissioner in the European Union.

04:03If he's taken on, he's 73, he will be the oldest candidate.

04:08But he could be more consensual because he comes from the EU

04:11and maybe someone who is well respected as well

04:15could be a candidate that would fit the bill.

04:17But even that is not sure right now.

04:19And we don't know if Michel Barnier wants to actually do the job,

04:22because there's a saying in France that when you become prime minister,

04:24you walk in to the prime minister's office on your two feet

04:27and you come out carried feet first because the work is so

04:32incredibly difficult and you're just in the crux of arguments all the time.

04:36There are two important issues that need to be solved urgently in France.

04:40The first one is the budget.

04:41It has to be presented to parliament by the end of September.

04:45No sign of that happening.

04:46And there's an increase in France's debt, which has been announced.

04:51And also a big row going on about the overall reform of the pension

04:55bill, which came into effect last year, pushing the pension age up to 64.

04:59Practically unanimity through the opposition that that bill is going to be

05:03shot down if they take power.

05:05That's something Emmanuel Macron doesn't want.

05:08Last point, a lot of people are saying,

05:10why doesn't Emmanuel Macron resign and call fresh presidential elections

05:14that will lead to new legislative elections could solve the problem.

05:17Emmanuel Macron should stay in office till 2027 and he is not moving.

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