Biden, Harris hit campaign trail as two-month sprint to vote begins

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00:00Two months to go until the US presidential election.

00:04Yesterday's US Labour Day traditionally marking the start of what's known as

00:08the final stretch of the race.

00:10Both the Trump and Harris campaigns focusing on some key swing stays

00:14that will likely decide the outcome.

00:16It is then a frenetic nine-week sprint to a November 5th voting day

00:21that many regard as perhaps the most consequential election

00:24in modern memory.

00:25The state of the presidential race though in early September

00:28often seen as a pretty decent indicator of where things are likely to end up

00:33at the polls on election day.

00:35Well, international affairs commentator Doug Herbert

00:37is joining me here on set.

00:38So Doug, nine weeks to go.

00:40Would you believe it?

00:41Where do we stand?

00:42Yeah, nine weeks goes like that in American politics, Stuart.

00:46Look, I think the danger here is oversimplifying things.

00:50The narrative has been an amazing bolt out of the starting blocks

00:55for Kamala Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, in the past few weeks.

00:59And the momentum has been with them.

01:01And yes, she has done what Biden was unable to do,

01:05which is to start in some national polls pulling away from Trump.

01:09That is solidifying her lead on the national level.

01:13Now, I need to say I'm going to show our viewers and you some poll numbers

01:17from the latest poll ABC News and Ipsos conducted August 23rd to 27th

01:22after the DNC.

01:23I'm going to tell you why we need to take those poll numbers with a grain of salt.

01:27And they come with a big asterisk.

01:29So you see this all registered voters.

01:31Kamala has a four-point lead, 50% to 46%.

01:35Among likely voters, perhaps a more important number,

01:37those voters actually say, yeah, not only am I registered,

01:40but I'm also going to go to the polls.

01:42That's a six-point lead, 52% to 46%.

01:45Now we could take that down and I will say why you should really,

01:49if not disregard that, take it with a grain of salt.

01:51We know about the Electoral College, right?

01:53We have done reports on the Electoral College.

01:56It was devised in the U.S. as the system,

01:58the intent being to give small, often mostly rural states as much weight,

02:05if not more weight than more populous ones,

02:07the ones with the urban centers and the dense media markets.

02:10A lot of critics of the Electoral College say that the result is that

02:14you are giving way too far representation to areas that have almost no one in them

02:20at the expense of big cities and metropolitan areas in the U.S.

02:23That said, given that, when you ask me where things stand today,

02:27the picture is much tighter in the so-called battleground states.

02:31And Stuart, when I speak about battlegrounds today,

02:34I really divide it into two fronts.

02:36You have the so-called Rust Belt states where the working class bastions are

02:40in Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

02:43And Pennsylvania is where Kamala and Joe Biden jointly appeared for the first time yesterday.

02:48Talk about that in a second.

02:50Then you have the so-called Sun Belt states, which are in the Sun Belt, right?

02:54The Arizona, the Nevada, the Georgias, the North Carolinas.

02:59Now, Harris, according to these most polls, remember,

03:02we're talking about averages of polls, has slim lead, very modest,

03:07very modest in the Rust Belt in those three northern states.

03:12She has – it's razor thin with Trump slightly leading in the Sun Belt right now.

03:17And if you look at the overall picture in these battlegrounds, as of today, Stuart,

03:21the overall picture is Trump has a lead, a very slight one, in four of the seven battleground states,

03:27which is why I say those numbers need to be taken in that larger context.

03:32You talked about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden appearing together for their first joint campaign.

03:36At Pennsylvania, it was union stronghold.

03:39Let's have a listen to Kamala Harris, what she had to say.

03:44Because unions helped build America, and unions helped build America's middle class.

03:52For generations in Detroit and across our nation, the brothers and sisters of labor

03:58have stood together to righteously demand fair pay, better benefits, and safe working conditions.

04:08And let me say, every person in our nation has benefited from that work.

04:15Kamala Harris there really saying how good unions have been for the U.S. and continue to be.

04:21And how important are they in this election?

04:23And I suppose the answer to that, Stuart, is very important, not important.

04:28And what do I mean by that?

04:30About one in ten American workers of voting age are members of unions.

04:35That's ten percent.

04:36Now, from a European perspective, that's nothing, right?

04:38So unions are talked up in general election campaigns.

04:41They do have big, perhaps outsized political influence, especially in these rust belt states

04:46where the working middle class are major constituencies.

04:49But on the national map, unions are not as important, for better or for worse.

04:54That said, the Democrats historically have done very well with unions, right?

04:58They're supposed to be the party of unions.

05:02Way back in 1992, Bill Clinton won the unions by over 30 points.

05:06Back in 2020, how did Biden do?

05:09Well, he won the unions by not as well as Clinton did, a little over 20 points.

05:13Did better than Hillary Clinton did.

05:15The problem is the narrative's been changing.

05:18Whereas historically you said, well, it's a no-brainer.

05:21Of course, the Democrats are the working class party.

05:23They're for the unions.

05:24The Republican Party has managed through its strategists, through its narrative,

05:29to rewrite that script and to start to bring more and more unions

05:32and working class voters to their sides,

05:34flipping these former so-called sort of blue states more in their favor.

05:38So now you have what some say is a paradox of a billionaire candidate

05:44who the Democrats say has never in his career championed the worker,

05:49all of a sudden drawing a lot of sympathy and support

05:52from some pretty big influential working middle class union groups,

05:56including the Teamsters Union,

05:58which hasn't explicitly endorsed Donald Trump and the Republicans,

06:01but has a dalliance with him and may do so.

06:05So the Republicans have been siphoning support on the union front.

06:10The unions are no longer a sure bet for the Democrats.

06:13That's what's interesting about this narrative.

06:15A lot of people would say, how is that possible?

06:17The Republicans have never been the party of the working class or the middle class.

06:20But in this election, all bets are off,

06:22which is why you see Kamala Harris, Joe Biden fighting tooth and nail

06:26for every union vote they can get.

06:28And what about Trump?

06:29Him and J.D. Vance scheduled to campaign together later on in the week.

06:33But Trump's been having some difficulties on the campaign trail.

06:36Yeah, Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance.

06:38Now, like you said, these are difficulties that they minimize downplay,

06:41say are artificial difficulties fabricated by their rivals,

06:44their Democratic rivals.

06:45But a big one in the past week or so, which we've reported on,

06:48is what was called a political stunt by the Democrats at Arlington National Cemetery,

06:54one of the most solemn institutions in America,

06:57a cemetery where military veterans are buried.

07:00And in one of the most sacred, sacrosanct parts of that cemetery,

07:04Section 60, as it's called,

07:06Trump had a campaign stop with family members of some of the 13 troops

07:12who were killed during the messy American withdrawal from Afghanistan

07:16at Abbey Gate and Kabul Airport.

07:18And there was an incident in which Arlington Cemetery and the Army says

07:24a cemetery worker who tried to say you're not allowed to campaign

07:27in Arlington National Cemetery, it's against the rules, it's against federal,

07:30it's a federal violation, that there was apparently a scuffle

07:33and that the aid at the cemetery was somehow manhandled

07:38or harassed by one of the Trump campaign people.

07:42Trump denies it, but hasn't released any footage to prove what happened in the incident.

07:47It has left a bad taste, but some of the Army people who were there with him

07:51at the cemetery have signed a statement supporting Trump,

07:53saying he's the real one who sticks up for military veterans,

07:56even though he has denigrated them on many, many occasions

08:00and is seen by the Democrats as a total hypocrite

08:02when it comes to honoring America's military veterans.

08:05This has left a sour taste, staging a political campaign in Arlington National Cemetery.

08:10He's not the first one to do it, but he's the first one to have this angry reaction

08:13to criticism of doing so.

08:15J.D. Vance on the campaign trail has also been caught out time and again

08:21for what are perceived as misogynistic statements

08:24and not seeming too human in his everyday reactions with people on the campaign trail.

08:30Also, the Trump campaign this week postponed what was supposed to be a gala fundraiser

08:35for his New Jersey golf course for people who participated in the January 6, 2021

08:41Capitol insurrection, the storming of the Capitol, defenders of those people.

08:45That was postponed for unknown reasons.

08:48The campaign didn't give a reason.

08:49Perhaps it will still take place, but if so, only after the election.

08:53So he's been a little bit on the defensive, even though if you speak to the Trump campaign,

08:56they say they're in poll position, they're doing fine, nothing to see here, move on.

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