Golf Best Bets: PGA Tour BMW Championship Predictions

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00:00live right here on the early line on sports grid. Our

00:06producer, Joe Friso, if you could, I'm not sure what our

00:10technical capabilities are at this moment. Are we good? We

00:15are good. Alright. You tell me, Joe. I think we're ready to go.

00:18Keith Stewart joins us live right here from the Mountain

00:21Time Zone in Denver, Colorado for the BMW Championship this

00:26week. The second leg of the PGA Tour playoffs. That is the

00:29FedEx Cup playoffs as we keep it rolling. Keith, as always,

00:33we appreciate the time. Last week in Memphis, this week out

00:36in the Rocky Mountain State, we appreciate the time here on the

00:39early line. Ben, it is a beautiful morning out here in

00:43Colorado for the BMW Championship. Let's talk a

00:46little golf. We got two weeks.

00:52Now, BMW 250 guys. I think we're Keith, our apologies. I

00:57believe we're having a couple of technical difficulties here

01:00on the early line on this Tuesday. Just keep us abreast

01:05as we try to get this thing rolling. Alright, we'll keep

01:09firing through. Keith, let's look back at Memphis last week

01:12and the Saint Jude Championship before we go forward to this

01:15week in the BMW Championship. The opening leg of the FedEx

01:19Cup playoffs. It wasn't easy for Hideki Matsuyama on Sunday

01:23but he did hold on to win the Saint Jude Championship to

01:27start off the FedEx Cup postseason. What did you make

01:30of Hideki's performance last week in Memphis? I tell you

01:34what, Ben. Hideki, it was really, it was really

01:37something because you have to consider how he started his

01:40week. The story surrounding him and his team, the fact that he

01:43didn't have his regular caddy there, the fact that he didn't

01:45have his coach there because they had gotten robbed over in

01:49London when they had stopped over from Paris heading to

01:51Memphis and those guys lost their visas and their passports

01:55in order to come to America. So, Hideki with a new caddy

01:59goes out and he wins and holds on on Sunday. An impressive

02:02performance and you know what? A good course fit and a good

02:05course fit again this week. We've seen a lot of multiple

02:08winners over the years in the playoffs. I think Hideki's still

02:11pretty alive this week, guys. Keith, the top 50 move on here

02:16to the advance to the next round but let me take a look at

02:18some of the guys that didn't finish there particularly in

02:21Rory McIlroy. Back-to-back 74s on the weekend. What happened

02:25to his game and not advancing? Well, that's an upset right

02:28there. DRS, how about the bottom of that leaderboard? You

02:31got T68, you got two guys, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy

02:36and then 70th place Max Homa. I mean, three huge names and

02:39these guys are well out of form. I don't see how they, you

02:42know, they even get it back. I mean, I was there all week.

02:46Rory was hitting the driver everywhere. It was one of the

02:48worst ball striking weeks of his career and I just don't see

02:52how he flips the switch which is a shame because out here at

02:54Castle Pines, par 72, 8,130 yards on the scorecard. It's a

03:00perfect fit for Rory. Jack Nicklaus golf course, he loves

03:03those two but man, I tell you, it looked rough last week and

03:09not so much just the game, Donnie. It was his body

03:12language. He looked like he was just done for the year. He

03:15actually looks like he's been done since Pinehurst and he

03:17walked out of that scorer's tent and didn't want to talk to

03:20the media anymore. I think Rory needs a reset, boys. A

03:25difficult performance in Memphis but it should be stated

03:28that Rory McIlroy is still there at the BMW Championship.

03:32He ranks fifth in the FedEx Cup standings, did enter the

03:35postseason at third overall. Scottie Scheffler still in

03:39front. Hideki Matsuyama makes the big move up the board to

03:42number three in the FedEx Cup standings and Xander Shoffley,

03:45the two-time major champion this year, checks in at number

03:49two. So, as we see these odds, this is not for this week's

03:52event at the BMW Championship but just the FedEx Cup winner

03:56when all is said and done. Keith, how do you evaluate

03:59these odds at the moment? Scottie is for sure still the

04:03man to beat. You can't forget guys that next week when we

04:06take the top 30 to the Tour Championship, we have that

04:09staggered scarts. So, Scottie's not only going to be in first

04:13place but he's gonna get a couple extra strokes on the

04:15field. You know, last week, he wasn't great with the putter

04:18but everything else was. He finishes T4. This week, he's

04:22coming to a place where we're not on Bermuda gas greens

04:24anymore. So, I feel like the putter's gonna work a little

04:27bit better but it's a ball striker's paradise. You have to

04:30cover the fact that I'm at 6400 feet of elevation here at

04:34Castle Pines Golf Club. There's a huge adjustment to be made.

04:37Seven and a half percent of carry. So, that means when

04:40Donnie's hitting his driver 300 out here, he's hitting 23. So,

04:45all of a sudden, that 8100-yard golf course, he gets

04:48down to 7500 yards, four par fives. This is the perfect

04:52spot for Xander and Scottie. I think Scottie still easily

04:55maintains his lead going in and with a brand new redesigned

04:59Eastlake, I'm not sure that Xander has as much of an

05:02advantage over Scottie like he would anyone else. We take a

05:06look at the FanDuel Sportsbook here for the odds for this

05:08weekend's BMW Championship. No stranger, it's Scottie Sheffler

05:11to plus 330 price followed by Xander Shoffle to plus 550 but

05:14how about this? Rory McIlroy, third in line at a 12-1 price

05:18followed by Morikawa, Cantlay, and Matsuyama. Give us some

05:21looks here at the top of the leaderboard for this weekend

05:23here, Keith. I think the big two are really impressive. You

05:27just go to Xander. He won at Valhalla, the PGA Championship,

05:31his first major of his career and the first major of his two

05:34this year. That's a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course.

05:37Big golf course just like this one that I'm at this week and

05:40of course, you have Scottie who's still striking the ball

05:42unbelievably. He doesn't like to putt on Bermuda. We're back

05:45on Poa, Bentgrass, Greens. I feel like Scottie's going to

05:48have a little bit of a bounce back. Both of those guys are

05:51going to be a huge part of this conversation. I won't bet them

05:54at single odds. I'll have to wait till the live market. I did

05:57bet Scottie on Sunday morning in Memphis when he was seven

05:59back because he was over 10-1. I mean, I'm betting Scottie

06:02anytime live, he goes over 10-1 and he's not in the jail cell,

06:06guys. I mean, he is that good and he's that impressive. So at

06:09the end of the day, I think that either one of those guys,

06:13they're a live bet play. I would not bet them pre-tournament

06:16at six or three-to-one. Scottie Scheffler still finishing in

06:20fourth in Memphis in the opening leg of the FedExCup

06:23playoffs. Andrew Schauffele firing a seven under in his

06:26final round on Sunday. Keep the top 30, make it to Atlanta and

06:30Eastlake for the Tour Championship for the guys on

06:33the horizon of getting to the third and final stop in the

06:36FedExCup playoffs. Give us some names to pay attention to this

06:39week out in Denver. All right, my early leans on the early

06:43line. Victor Hovland, he's back from the dead. He won the BMW

06:46last year. He was great last week. Top five and approach. Top

06:49five off the tee and we know the guy can score and the other

06:53guy is a hometown hero, Wyndham Clark. Yes, he's from Denver. If

06:57you're talking about a guy who knows all about altitude

07:00adjustments, here's your guy. He played very well last week.

07:03T-7 there at the St. Jude. So I love Wyndham Clark. He bombs it

07:07off the tee and he'll understand about these greens.

07:11Jack Nicklaus, all sorts of levels. It's going to be one of

07:13those complicated courses to score. Keith Stewart, we

07:18appreciate the time. Enjoy the week at altitude. More on the

07:21early line up next.

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