00:00Clearly there's been a slight uptick. I don't think that in itself is anything to be overly
00:05concerned about. The direction of travel according to the OBR's forecast will still be back down
00:10to target in time. But what I do worry about is the way this government has very early on started
00:17to give out some pretty high wage increases across the public sector, 22% for doctors with no
00:25requirement for productivity improvements. That will be something that the Bank of England will
00:29watch very closely because that could feed into greater inflationary expectations around wages
00:35and that would mean potentially interest rates staying higher for longer than would otherwise
00:39be necessary. So a bit concerned about the government on wages and inflation. I think
00:46it's increasingly as I've just identified likely to be around wage push inflation. So they've given
00:5322% to junior doctors. There are other negotiations going on at the moment and I think to the extent
00:59that the government just simply concedes increases in wages with no commensurate requirement for
01:05productivity improvements, that in itself will be an inflationary pressure and I think will lead to
01:11interest rates being higher for longer which is going to hurt mortgage holders, businesses and
01:16people up and down the country. That is the risk.
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