00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast with the news that the world has woken up to,
00:07at least in this part of the world, India, is that Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh has been killed.
00:14Now this, what does it mean? What does it mean not just for Gaza and Palestine,
00:20for the better ongoing war in Israel as well, but the global dynamics too, how they are going to get
00:28impacted. To discuss this further, allow me to welcome Mr. Atul Aneja, foreign and strategic
00:34affairs expert and also a veteran senior journalist. Always a pleasure to speak to you, Mr. Aneja.
00:40Welcome, Pankaj.
00:41Thank you. So looking at these scenarios evolving as of now with Ismail Haniyeh, a name that had
00:50become synonymous to, I would say, terror, quote unquote, on October 7th, when the fighters of
00:59Gaza, Hamas, launched a daring attack on Israel and since then things haven't been the same.
01:06In your opinion, what would be the first reaction and impression and how would the world see it?
01:14Well, it's a big strike, Pankaj, and I think Israel has crossed a red line today by killing
01:20Haniyeh, who in a way was the political face of Hamas, not necessarily the military one.
01:28Senwar is the one who's leading the military side, but he was a political face of Hamas and
01:36his killing assassination would mean that now the supporters of Hamas cannot be quiet. I mean,
01:48it's a straightaway something which has happened in Tehran and that is important because the
01:54Iranians straightaway come into the picture now. So it's not only an attack on the Hamas, it's
02:00frankly an indirect attack on Iran and that's where the escalation comes in because if it is
02:08the provocation to Iran, now what is Iran going to do and it has to do something. They've come
02:15into Iran's lair and killed Haniyeh in their protected zone. I mean, they were supposed to
02:21protect Israel. So at this time, the Iranians will be under tremendous pressure to retaliate.
02:29The question is, how do they retaliate? When do they retaliate? But I think the escalation has
02:34come now because the Iranians will do something, whether it can come through northern Israel area,
02:41that is Lebanese border, which is Hezbollah opening up over there. And yesterday itself,
02:48it's still not confirmed, but an attack on a house in southern suburbs of Beirut by Israel,
02:56which again killed a senior commander, though the Hezbollah says that he escaped. But
03:00nevertheless, that side of the border is already red hot. So what happens there? Will the Iranians
03:08come through Hezbollah? Or what happens inside Gaza, Pankaj? Because he was a Gazan, essentially,
03:19that is, he studied there, he grew up there, he has his notes of influence inside Gaza.
03:26And if they're studying inside Gaza, can we, I don't think it'll be unexpected,
03:31the Israeli bombing start inside Rafah, close to the Rafah border, or throughout Gaza. And that
03:37could mean many more civilian casualties, etc. So there are ways, but I think essentially,
03:44if you see the big picture, it's Israel says Iran at the next level, at a new level,
03:50and the escalation in the entire region, not just locally inside Gaza, or just Israel.
03:57Absolutely. You're right. Mr. Aneja, when we talk about this particular assault,
04:04Iran would see it as an assault on its own, you know, land, and whether Israel would be able to
04:14be ready to be prepared for a blowback from Iran remains to be seen. Hamas, meanwhile, has said that
04:22Israel won't achieve what it desires, even after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. So
04:29that also is a territory that is not relinquishing, that is not giving up. In your opinion,
04:35sir, when we look at this particular strike, till now we had seen the proxy war of Iran going on in
04:41Lebanon and its fighters engaging in war with Israel, saw attacks on Golan Heights, then
04:46retaliatory attacks on Lebanese territory. Do you fear or do you sense the role of United States too
04:56becoming stronger after this attack when Iran comes into picture more prominently?
05:03You see, I think the green light for something like this,
05:09not so much in specifics, seems to have come when Netanyahu visited Washington,
05:17and he addressed the Congress, he met Trump, he met Biden. So you see, he met Kamala Harris.
05:24So I think he came back, you know, emboldened with a line from the Americans that don't
05:32invade Lebanon after what happened at the football ground attack inside Golan Heights.
05:39But short of that, you can go ahead. I think that seems to have been the understanding and
05:45that's where the assassinations come in. And when you talk about Washington, yes,
05:51I think that element is there because without that, I doubt they would have done this.
05:57And now comes the Iranian factor, the escalation to come in. I think right now there's a lot of
06:03conversations at various levels going on between Mossad and CIA, between State Department and
06:08Foreign Ministry. And, you know, the intelligence community, the militaries as well, about
06:18repercussions that might follow Hania's killing. Iran has already done missile attack,
06:24attack as serial missiles, most of it did not work because of the Israeli defenses. But there
06:30were certain missiles which did go through and hit an airbase in the Negev Desert. And those are
06:37hypersonic missiles. So that was a warning which came that no air defense or missile defense is
06:43going to stop such. And the Iranians have actually warned that, you know, we deliberately
06:49targeted to a non populated area, but we can do that to populated areas as well. So it's not that
06:56Iran is toothless right now. Of course, attacking a country as small as Israel
07:03and populated area would immediately cause, I mean, huge escalation again, but then I think
07:11these are tempting the Iranians to do that. So the Americans would be very, very involved
07:17in now, so called damage control following what has happened by killing of Hania.
07:25And this is going to stay for some more time. One more point, we saw some process of de-escalation,
07:31at least hopes to that going on. The talks were going on, I think in Egypt for the hostage deal
07:38to take place. I think that's off the radar now. The Chinese had got both the Palestinian factions,
07:44that is the Fatah and the Hamas in Beijing to get them together for some with the possibility
07:52of a reconciliation dialogue or negotiations. So I think with the attacks, I think Israel
07:57and Netanyahu has made up, I mean, has sent that message that we will not go for talks.
08:03We are not going for talks. And we are going for this ultimate option of erasing Hamas
08:13from Gaza. We are striking their leadership. So it's that particular process seems to have
08:20also been killed with the killing of Hania. Thank you for your questions.
08:27Right. Nice, sir. Indeed, indeed. Well, well received. One final question, sir. I mean,
08:33if I have to knock at the cost of either militarizing the whole situation or sensitizing
08:39or trying to boost it here, but I remember the times of 1913, 1914, when the world was at the
08:48brink of world war, but there was one trigger, the killing of our Duke Ferdinand. That parallel
08:55is being drawn by several international media as we speak, that this could be one of, because as
09:01you rightly mentioned, the kind of figure Ismail Hania was, at least revered in Gaza, now involving
09:08Iran. In this sort of possibility, sir, because with a war going on between Russia and Ukraine
09:14as well, and now in the Middle East, this sort of dynamics, do you think Iran would be weighing
09:21on these options also before thinking of anything before striking back? No, because Iran is not
09:28strong enough right now. I mean, if it is a one between Israel and Iran, the symmetry is still
09:34there between Israel and Iran speaking. So this can come in only if Iran has a green light from
09:42the Russians, let's say, or from the Chinese, that they were going to back them up. And then
09:47they will be emboldened to do something and escalate it big time. Right now, that's not
09:51coming. You see, the Russians are involved in Ukraine. Unless that war winds up, the Russians
09:55won't have enough to divert it here. So that, I do not see the, and the Israelis would have
10:01calculated that before going in for this. So that's, you know, of our Duke Ferdinand and that
10:09being the trigger, I don't think is there because the alliances are not there. I mean,
10:14the Israelis may have, and then again, America's going inside into their election mode. And there
10:20are strong Palestinian factions and supporters as well. And beyond a point, they cannot alienate
10:26them, especially the Democrats can't alienate them, and Trump may take a certain position.
10:30So there will also be exercise some constraint on Israel not to go abroad. So I don't think it's
10:37going to trigger into that. But now comes the proxies will come into picture, the Hezbollah
10:42will come into the picture. Because this is also assassinations, terror, it's not full scale wars,
10:47which are going on. And then you're going to see the Houthis, I think the Swiss cannot be able to
10:53watch that space. What happened to international shipping? How are they going to respond to that?
11:00So I think this is also, and then we're going to have the stock markets reacting to this
11:07development. I don't know what the price of oil would be after what is happening. You know,
11:12it's the energy security into picture over there. So it's still going to be wars by war,
11:18by escalated war through proxies. Mr. Raneja, thank you so much for bringing us up to speed
11:23and putting things into perspective as far as the assassination, the killing of Ismail
11:28Fania is concerned, the Hamas chief. And we really appreciate your input. We hope to have
11:35you more on One India also. Thank you so much. You're welcome.
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