Musim Laporan Keuangan Dimulai, BBCA Catat Laba Semester I-2024 Tumbuh 11%

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"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Kamis (25/07/2024) dengan Tema Musim Laporan Keuangan Dimulai, BBCA Catat Laba Semester I-2024 Tumbuh 11%".

Transcript

00:00And to discuss more about the current market conditions,

00:03it has been connected via LINE ZOOM with Mr. Gembong Swito,

00:06Director of Education and Investment, Sahamology.

00:09Mr. Gembong, thank you very much for joining us today.

00:14Thank you, Mr. Fajar.

00:15Yes, Mr. Gembong, before we dig deeper,

00:17there was one of the emittents that seemed quite interesting

00:19related to the release of the financial report.

00:21But let's start with IHSG first.

00:23Mr. Gembong, yesterday IHSG was finally closed

00:25unable to reach the level of 7,300 again.

00:28And now it's at 7,262.

00:30What is the current position of IHSG?

00:34Okay, if we talk about IHSG,

00:36for the past year, it's been an anomaly.

00:40Usually, IHSG is an all-market operator.

00:45Like Big Bank, Telkom, Astra.

00:48But this year, IHSG operators are more on the side of conglomeration.

00:53For example, BP Group and others.

00:55That's why the movement of IHSG is very anomalous.

00:58If we talk about the current target of IHSG at 7,300,

01:04the target for this year, for example, in 2024,

01:07may be in the range of 7,500,

01:12maybe at the end of the year.

01:14But if the potential decline,

01:16especially in the sector of conglomeration companies,

01:20that can lower IHSG to the level of less than 7,000.

01:25Okay, the level of 7,000.

01:29And also yesterday, we learned that some securities

01:32broke the target of IHSG.

01:34It seems not as optimistic as at the beginning of the year.

01:36With the release of financial reports from a number of emittents,

01:39what will IHSG be like in the future,

01:41especially by the end of the year, Mr. Gembong?

01:43Okay, if we talk about the release of financial reports,

01:46thank God, it started from the king of BCA.

01:51That's a very good position.

01:53The big bank will also be positive.

01:55But when the big bank goes up,

01:58if the conglomeration companies, especially BP Group, go down,

02:02IHSG will go down because of the market cap.

02:06Okay, so the main movement from the conglomeration

02:09is that the market cap is quite large.

02:11And a number of emittents have been mentioned by Mr. Gembong.

02:15We start from BCA first, which was also mentioned earlier.

02:18It turns out that the growth is quite good.

02:21In the first semester of 2024, the market cap went up by 11.1%.

02:25Does this become a positive sign

02:28or a positive signal for the BCA itself?

02:32Okay, from the point of view of BCA itself,

02:35why is it called a wonderful company?

02:38Because this company always grows,

02:42especially on the bottom line, which is EPS or Earning Percent.

02:47The market cap goes up every year,

02:50even though the valuation is expensive.

02:54With BBV, for example, 5 per 2-3 is expensive.

02:57But why can this continue to grow?

02:59Because indeed, in business, in energy,

03:02it continues to require growth.

03:04For example, in Q2 2024, it was released earlier at 11.1%.

03:10That's very good.

03:12Why? Because if a company can grow,

03:15for example, in double digits, above 10%,

03:18it's already very good.

03:20And it's not easy.

03:21With the market size, BCA can still grow,

03:25it's already very good from a company's point of view.

03:27But in terms of price,

03:29now BCA is at least Rp10,000, the highest is Rp10,400.

03:33Based on the analysis consensus,

03:38this year it's around Rp11,000.

03:41But the current area, Rp10,000, is consolidative,

03:44which forms resistance.

03:47The position may move sideways first.

03:51If with this good financial report,

03:54it should be able to all-time high at Rp10,500.

03:58Something like that.

03:59But one thing we have to pay attention to

04:03is in terms of inflow,

04:06how consistent it is in or outflow.

04:09Right now, the outflow is still not too big.

04:13So, the movement of BCA itself will still be sideways

04:17in the area of Rp10,000, Rp9,800, up to Rp10,500 all-time high.

04:24The movement of BCA will still be sideways.

04:27This is what Mr. Gemoh said earlier, Rp9,800 up to Rp10,500.

04:31And this is a level that you can appreciate.

04:34But I'm also interested,

04:36Mr. Gemoh, can we review a little more about BCA's performance?

04:39The rate is increasing, the credit outflow is also increasing.

04:42This is in the first semester, 15.5% annually.

04:46Is this also a positive sign for BCA's fundamental performance?

04:50If the fundamental performance is very good,

04:53especially from the perspective of banking capital,

04:56especially in the credit outflow,

04:58it can grow 15.5%.

05:01In the big bank, BCA can achieve a target of 15.5%.

05:08This is very good.

05:09Especially in the current condition,

05:11where the BNKM segment,

05:13then the corporation with high relations,

05:16can still pass, can still grow 15.5%.

05:20This is very good in terms of the fundamental performance of the company.

05:23Okay, for the NPL, it's still quite safe, right?

05:26NPL at 2.2% is very safe.

05:29Compared to smaller industries,

05:31compared to other big banks,

05:33it's already above 3%.

05:35So with the NPL quality in BCA,

05:37I think it's very good at 2.2%.

05:39It's still safe.

05:40It's still quite safe from a fundamental perspective.

05:43Earlier, the level was actually mentioned by Mr. Gemoh,

05:46for the BCA stock.

05:47But actually, what can be recommended

05:50for IDF Channel friends for BCA?

05:53Okay, at the moment,

05:55of course, again,

05:57the price movement will be different

06:00with valuation or energy.

06:02If the current price is more likely to be corrected,

06:07healthy correction.

06:08Why?

06:09Because globally,

06:11both in America and in Asia,

06:14this morning, it was mostly opened negative.

06:17So, of course, the impact from the regional will also be affected.

06:23Especially from the big bank side,

06:25it will be more likely to be corrected or down.

06:28Okay, so some indicators can be observed.

06:32As for my friends or viewers,

06:34they always pay attention to the speed or movement of the BCA stock.

06:38But if we look at Mr. Gemoh,

06:39the BCA stock, as mentioned earlier,

06:41from the energy side or from the speed of the stock,

06:44does this make a difference for other big banks?

06:46Or is there a different side for other big banks?

06:50Well, this is interesting.

06:51Since 2024, the release of the P1 report,

06:55there is a statement.

06:56BCA can grow by double digits.

06:59While three other big banks,

07:02BRI, Mandiri, BNI,

07:05it only grows by single digits.

07:08Even today, the release of BRI,

07:11BRI can only grow 1.13%.

07:18Very thin.

07:19Although in terms of value,

07:21one semester is equivalent to 29.9 trillion.

07:26So if the growth analysis expectation,

07:30for example, I want to grow by double digits,

07:34this is not achieved in BWMN,

07:37especially the big banks in the first semester.

07:40In the second quarter, it's the same.

07:45They will mostly be positive,

07:48only the growth rate is thin.

07:51Single digit.

07:52And it started from BRI, which is 1.13%.

07:57This will burden them in terms of price.

08:00Okay, we can compare the growth

08:03between Big Cap 1 and others.

08:06But for BRI itself,

08:08with the growth that was only thin,

08:10is the stock itself still interesting, Mr. Gembong?

08:13If in terms of valuation,

08:15fundamental or energy,

08:17this is very interesting.

08:19Why?

08:20First, the average consensus analysis

08:22is at the level of Rp5,900 to Rp6,000

08:25for the next 12 months.

08:27But what happens?

08:29The price movement on the BRI side

08:32is outflow or inflow.

08:35Since mid-March 2024,

08:42foreign investors in 2.5 months

08:45continue to sell or outflow.

08:48This is what pushes the BRI down

08:51from the highest level of Rp6,450

08:54at the time of March,

08:56to the lowest of Rp4,090.

09:00Today, the BRI is around Rp4,700.

09:05Yesterday, it was Rp4,900.

09:08But because of the financial report release,

09:11if we talk about growth or not,

09:13but the expectation of the analysis

09:15is usually higher than that,

09:17below the consensus.

09:19This is what causes the BRI position

09:21to be relatively prone to correction.

09:24In addition,

09:25from the financial report,

09:27there is a trend for non-performing loans,

09:30or NPL.

09:32From Rp1 to Rp3.2,

09:35currently Rp3.4.

09:37If that becomes the focus of the investor,

09:40then the tendency of the BRI will be more corrective.

09:44Okay, what is your recommendation for the BRI, Mr. Gembong?

09:47Gradually.

09:48We talk about the valuation,

09:50it's quite interesting.

09:51Fundamentally, it's okay.

09:53But this is a temporary corrective.

09:57At Rp4,600, Rp4,700,

10:01we have started to recommend

10:03gradually.

10:05Or DCA.

10:07Okay, gradually.

10:09That was Mr. Gembong's recommendation.

10:12But once again,

10:14we will return the decision to each of you.

10:18Apart from the bank,

10:19Mr. Gembong, what financial reports

10:21can we discuss?

10:23But later, after the break,

10:25we will continue to discuss,

10:26and the auditors will stay with us.

10:27We will be right back.

10:33Thank you.

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