Ken's Betting Philosophy for NL ROY

Ken Barkley the Awards GOAT breaks down his process for betting on Rookie of the Year in Major League Baseball and what bettors can look for.

Transcript

00:00I guess I want to just do my philosophy here real quick, just because it relates to everything

00:03Jake's been saying. This sounds, if you're listening to this and you like awards because

00:08you follow the show and you're waiting for that great opportunity to come in and make a lot of

00:12money, this might all sound like a lot of bad news, right? It sounds, oh man, thought we were

00:17going to have something. If you like awards, you want situations where long shots can win.

00:22And maybe in the AL, maybe you get a little bit of that. I don't know if you're going to get,

00:26I think in both Cy Young markets, you have a chance to get some of that for sure still.

00:29And in the rookie, this sounds like, ah, like bad news, just nothing going on here. I think

00:34if you're looking for a bright spot, a piece of good news, and this was my betting philosophy a

00:37couple of weeks ago when we talked about this award market, where I say like, you don't have

00:41to bet into this right now because here's the good news. Maybe Skeens is unbelievable. Maybe

00:46he's ledger. Maybe he wins Cy Young. Maybe just goes nuts in every single start. If he's ever bad,

00:52like you will get the warning sign. He will have a bad start. It will happen. Like if it happens,

00:57you can see the bad start. You can get that information and the market is going to be so

01:03in love with him anyway. You're going to have a great opportunity to make a bet. I mean,

01:06we are so overweight on Skeens money and Skeens support in this market. If he does fall apart,

01:12even for one start and you're like, well, finally, at least it's like a crack in the armor.

01:16Like if you even get that start, he's always minus 350. I bet he has a bad start. I bet he's

01:21minus 280 like the next day or like minus 250. Great betting opportunity at that point because

01:27now the wheels are coming off. Now the war projections are going down and now you can

01:31come in and bet the position. So you get, it's actually kind of the best of both worlds. Like

01:35you can do nothing now and you don't lose any money and you can get information and it's not

01:40going to get into the market very much because everybody's going to love Skeens still and you're

01:44going to know better. You're going to be like, well, it actually crushes him statistically

01:47because of six earned, seven earned in a start. That's a big deal. He just hasn't done it yet.

01:51So the good news is you can wait and just wait for the bad start. And the best time to bet

01:56against Paul Skeens is actually going to be after the bad start because everyone's still going to

02:00think he's going to win anyway. And I think that's actually some good news in this market.