00:00salami slicing incremental pushing and when they discover if there's not
00:06sufficient pushback they keep pushing and what I think they found in relation
00:11to the Philippines is that there hasn't been enough pushback there's been a
00:18conscious decision under Xi Jinping to adopt a more muscular and assertive kind
00:26of international behavior and we've seen it all over the world we've seen it in
00:33relation to the waters of the Philippines we've seen in relation to
00:37Taiwan we've seen it in relation to Australia we've seen it in relation to
00:42Canada we've seen it in relation to any number of the Sino-Indian border so it's
00:48part of a general notion that you know China's time has come and we've got the
00:54weight we can throw it around and I don't think they really care about the
01:00the international pushback and or the bad the bad PR look because internally
01:10the dynamic is show how tough you are show how strong you are I think that
01:14explains the thuggish behavior of some Chinese diplomats for example or so and
01:20in terms of a chance of a war I think China will push until somebody pushes
01:27back forcefully my own feeling is the greatest risk is not of a premeditated
01:32war but of an accidental clash or incident that becomes hard to control
01:38because passions are running so high in in Washington and attitudes are so
01:43hardened in Washington and Beijing and elsewhere yeah just two or three thoughts
01:49on that I think because you asked about the likelihood of a war and I would say
01:54that that a war over Taiwan maybe you can say something after that is for the
02:00next few years is very unlikely for several reasons I mean the one thing is
02:04the price they would pay or that she would pay is really very high and and he
02:10knows this and from what I observe she is not a Putin second thing is second
02:17thing is that the PLA the People's Liberation Army is apparently not in a
02:22very good condition I mean there's constant reports about
02:25worsening corruption and and some some people even assessing they say we're not
02:31so sure how how function how if this army can still function properly and and
02:37win over Taiwan the second thing is when and there I agree with Mike the risk is
02:42an accident or something and I think this risk of an accident is more likely
02:47in the South China Sea especially the Philippines I mean we've seen that last
02:51week and we're more or less seeing it regularly with water cannons and so on
02:56and so the risk that something will will happen there is more likely than
03:01something will happen about Taiwan I think.
