- 2 years ago
Nilai tukar rupiah masih dalam tren melemah dan kembali mencapai level di atas Rp16.200 per dolar AS. Gubernur Bank Indonesia Perry Warjiyo menyampaikan bahwa bank sentral akan terus memastikan stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah. Perry menyampaikan bahwa ekonomi Indonesia termasuk salah satu negara emerging market yang kuat dalam menghadapi dampak rambatan global akibat ketidakpastian penurunan Fed Fund Rate (FFR) dan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik di Timur Tengah.
Hal ini ditopang oleh kebijakan moneter dan fiskal yang prudent dan terkoordinasi erat. Perry mengatakan, untuk memperkuat ketahanan eksternal, komitmen kuat BI untuk stabilitas nilai tukar menjadi bagian penting. Oleh karena itu, upaya stabilisasi, melalui pengelolaan aliran portfolio asing yang ramah pasar, termasuk operası moneter yang pro-market dan terintegrasi dengan pendalaman pasar uang akan mendukung ketahanan eksternal ekonomi Indonesia.
Hal ini ditopang oleh kebijakan moneter dan fiskal yang prudent dan terkoordinasi erat. Perry mengatakan, untuk memperkuat ketahanan eksternal, komitmen kuat BI untuk stabilitas nilai tukar menjadi bagian penting. Oleh karena itu, upaya stabilisasi, melalui pengelolaan aliran portfolio asing yang ramah pasar, termasuk operası moneter yang pro-market dan terintegrasi dengan pendalaman pasar uang akan mendukung ketahanan eksternal ekonomi Indonesia.
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00:00The value of Rupiah exchange is still in a weak trend and again reached a level of more than 16,200 Rupiah per US dollar.
00:16Bank Indonesia ensures that it will continue to maintain the stability of the value of Rupiah exchange,
00:21and this is supported by a prudent monetary and fiscal policy and also coordinated.
00:30The value of Rupiah exchange is still in a weak trend and again reached a level of more than 16,200 Rupiah per US dollar.
00:39Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Wardjo said that the Central Bank will continue to ensure the stability of the value of Rupiah exchange.
00:47Perry said that Indonesia's economy, including one of the countries with a strong emerging market,
00:53will face a global slowdown due to the uncertainty of the decline in the Fed Fund Rate
00:59and the increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
01:03This is supported by a prudent monetary and fiscal policy and also coordinated.
01:10The value of Rupiah exchange is still in a weak trend and again reached a level of more than 16,200 Rupiah per US dollar.
01:18Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Wardjo said that the Central Bank will continue to ensure the stability of the value of Rupiah exchange,
01:25and this is supported by a prudent monetary and fiscal policy and also coordinated.
01:34Perry added that to strengthen external resistance, the strong commitment of the Central Bank for the stability of the value of Rupiah exchange is an important part.
01:43Therefore, the effort to stabilize through the management of foreign portfolio trends, including pro-market monetary cooperation and integration with the deepening of the financial market.
01:56From Jakarta, Rahar Jopatmo, IDX Channel
02:03We will discuss today the impact of the weakening of the value of Rupiah exchange,
02:07which has been connected through Zoom with Mr. Ariston Chandra, who is a financial market observer.
02:12Good morning, Mr. Ariston.
02:14Good morning, Mr. Prasetya.
02:16How are you?
02:17I'm fine.
02:19Thank you for your time and attention.
02:21This is interesting to talk about the geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, which is getting hotter in the last few weeks.
02:28What is your opinion as a financial market observer?
02:36What are the impacts that can be felt?
02:39And how big is the possibility that this can affect the value of Rupiah?
02:46Thank you, Mr. Prasetya.
02:48As we know, the conflict in the Middle East is still hot.
02:52It affects the strengthening of the US dollar not only to Rupiah, but also to the value of other countries.
03:00Okay.
03:01So, this is an external factor, not from Indonesia's internal factor, which is causing the weakening of Rupiah currently.
03:11Because this is incidental.
03:18Okay.
03:19As a market observer, this conflict is likely to subside later in the day.
03:30So, this may not be compared to the weakening of Rupiah in 1998, where there was also a global monetary crisis,
03:42the strengthening of the US dollar against other exchanges.
03:46Okay.
03:47Because this is incidental, the market is still observing how far this conflict will still occur or heat up.
03:58If it will shrink or decrease, Rupiah can shrink again later in the day.
04:05Okay.
04:06So, the weakness that occurred in the last few times for the value of Rupiah against the US dollar,
04:11as you can see, is this only temporary or while looking at the conditions of the war that is likely to happen openly between Iran and Israel?
04:24Yes, the conflict is still heating up. The market is still observing how far Iran or Israel responds to the previous attacks.
04:36Okay.
04:37So, if this is still going on, the market will be more worried and Rupiah can shrink.
04:44Okay.
04:4516,200 Rupiah, if we look at the movement of Rupiah currently.
04:49Is this something that worries entrepreneurs or companies that have debt exposure, especially in the eyes of the US dollar?
05:01Yes, of course. Because the weakness of Rupiah has almost reached the highest level in 1998.
05:10Okay.
05:11So, this is a psychological level. If this is suppressed until it is more resistant, there is a possibility that Rupiah can continue to weaken more wildly.
05:24This will certainly damage the domestic economy.
05:29Okay.
05:30If it's about debt, of course, the payment of debt will be more and more difficult in the future.
05:36Well, talking about what you said earlier, there is a level of resistance that is likely to be achieved for the movement of Rupiah.
05:43Where will it potentially go?
05:46Yes, the level is not too far from here.
05:49From 16,800 to 17,000 Rupiah per dollar.
05:54As long as it is still hot, the opportunity to go there is still open.
05:58Oh yes.
06:00Okay. What will we see the negative impact if Rupiah can finally reach the level of resistance at 16,800, even up to 17,000 Rupiah?
06:13Will this have a tremendous impact on the industry sector?
06:19Yes, of course, the imported raw materials, of course, the cost will increase.
06:29Okay.
06:30The company cannot directly increase the selling price.
06:34If it is increased, it can cause the demand to decline, so it will interfere with the company's finances.
06:43Well, what are the other factors that make Garuda's eyes tensed?
06:49Do you see a global factor that dominates?
06:52Or in fact, even in the country, we are also experiencing a little pressure, for example.
06:59Yes, there is a little pressure from the current account.
07:02Back to the deficit from the second quarter of 2023.
07:07But overall, Indonesia's economy is still good, because economic growth is still above the average of other countries.
07:14Then inflation, although it rose a little in March, 3.05%, but still within the BII limit, which imposes a limit of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
07:27So, in terms of economic data, Indonesia is still good.
07:32The PMI manufacturer is still positive, still above level 50, still expanding.
07:36The level of public confidence is still high.
07:39The level of consumer confidence in Indonesia's economy is still quite high, still above level 100 according to the BII survey.
07:47So, fundamentally, Indonesia's economy is not bad, but rather good.
07:53Maybe it can maintain the confidence of investors or market players about Indonesia's economy
08:02and still want to invest or put the capital into Indonesia so that the rupiah can grow again.
08:11Okay, well, Governor BII has just said that it will maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate,
08:17but this also gives a sense of comfort to the public and business players in Indonesia.
08:21How do you see the policy stance of the Central Bank?
08:25Yes, of course, the Central Bank and the government have also complied with the prevention of fraud against the rupiah exchange rate.
08:35But because the nature of the BII is not only Indonesia that is affected, the whole world is also affected.
08:41So maybe what can be done in the short term is to intervene directly to the currency market
08:46so that the rupiah weakness is not wild and penetrates the psychological levels of the market.
08:55Well, if we look at the current conditions, what steps may need to be taken by the government?
09:01Because according to our theme, it is to reduce the weakness of the rupiah exchange rate.
09:05Yes, the government must continue to give confidence to the market players that Indonesia is a strong country economically.
09:15Not like other countries.
09:18Thus, in the future, after this conflict is resolved, the market players have no doubt to enter Indonesia again.
09:28So the rupiah can grow again.
09:32But in the long run, because the global economic problem is quite influential to Indonesia.
09:41Like yesterday, El Nino, then the supply disruption caused high inflation.
09:48Then the economic slowdown in several countries also caused the demand for commodities to decrease.
09:56So this is what must be targeted by the government to be able to restore the trust of the people.
10:07Global trust to Indonesian citizens.
10:10Okay, interesting if we look at it, it means that you said earlier that fundamentally our economy is still in good condition.
10:19This is an invention from our manufacturing industry which is above 50 points.
10:23This also shows that we are still quite strong.
10:25And as you said earlier, from the consumer trust index, Indonesia is still quite okay.
10:30The weakness that occurs is not just the rupiah.
10:33In the Asian region, there is also the Singapore dollar, which fell 0.19 percent.
10:37Taiwan dollar, minus 0.47 percent.
10:39South Korean won also fell 1.26 percent.
10:42Peso, the Philippines fell 0.62 percent.
10:45Then, Yuan China also fell 0.05 percent.
10:49Do you see how big it is?
10:51Not only Indonesia, but also many countries affected by the war.
10:55Do you see how the rupiah itself, the current rupiah position,
10:59among friends from other countries who are also under pressure from the currency?
11:04Yes, if you look at the statistics earlier, Indonesia is not the worst.
11:09That's right.
11:10In fact, Japan is the country that has a deep weakness,
11:15more than 8 percent, until yesterday, early 2024.
11:21It can be seen from the Japanese economy which was reported to be in recession.
11:29So, the fundamental economy of a strong Indonesia can prevent a deep weakness.
11:34Okay.
11:35Singapore itself, the current currency is actually surplus.
11:39Singapore, Thailand is also a surplus currency, unlike Indonesia.
11:44They are also weak.
11:46But they have a problem in the economy, which is far below Indonesia, which is only 1 percent.
11:51So, Indonesia can survive in a situation like this.
11:58Okay.
11:59So, if it can be said, the impact of the war conditions in the Middle East,
12:05is it significant enough to put global pressure on Asia and Indonesia in the future?
12:11Yes, if it's getting hotter.
12:13Because it's an accumulation.
12:15Before, there was Russia, Ukraine.
12:18That caused a disruption to the economy, to the whole world.
12:23And suddenly there was another attack from Hamas to Islam.
12:28Because Islam aggressively entered Gaza.
12:32The market is worried that the conflict will heat up.
12:34If it's true, Iran will attack Israel.
12:39In the future, if there is another conflict like this, people's reaction will be more...
12:45Okay.
12:47So, what are the steps to anticipate that need to be prepared by the government?
12:51We will discuss it in the next segment.
12:53Mr. Aliston, we will take the opportunity and Mr. Mirza, stay with us.
13:01IN THE NEXT EPISODE
13:13Yes, Mr. Mirza.
13:14We will continue this interesting discussion with Mr. Aliston Cendra,
13:17a financial market observer.
13:18Mr. Aliston, what will we do next?
13:21What will be the impact of the weakening of the Rupiah exchange rate?
13:25If it's true that it has potential, it's a long term.
13:28Are you worried that it will spread not only to Iran and Israel,
13:34but also to other countries?
13:36Because Lebanon is also under attack.
13:38There are also other countries. Syria is also under attack.
13:42Mr. Aliston.
13:44Yes, I am worried that this conflict can continue to spread.
13:49So, the dollar as a statistic, as a step that happens.
13:53Okay.
13:54Okay.
14:05Is it important to protect the value?
14:08In order to adapt to the current condition,
14:10as it should be done by the company,
14:12or maybe because there are other costs that must be paid
14:15in order to protect the value,
14:18in the end, it doesn't become a priority policy, for example, Mr. Aliston.
14:22Yes, if the dollar needs a lot in that company,
14:25of course, the value protection is very important.
14:29Okay.
14:30In that company.
14:31In order to prevent the movement of Rupiah that is not desired, as it is now.
14:39Okay, that's it.
14:40So, in your opinion, value protection can be one of the efforts.
14:44But is this more to the company,
14:46or what is it like if you look at the current condition?
14:50What must be done, for example?
14:52Yes, for companies that have high dollar needs,
14:55such as payment of debts that are out of time.
14:59Okay.
15:00Yesterday, there was also a publication by the Ministry of Finance
15:07to prepare dollars for this debt payment.
15:11Okay.
15:12The country must also pay attention to
15:19the structure of the debt.
15:21I mean, if the dollar is quite a lot,
15:25maybe it can be replaced by Rupiah.
15:27Okay.
15:28Switching to Rupiah.
15:30But if we look at the current government debt composition,
15:34it is largely dominated or owned by domestic investors.
15:39What do you think about this?
15:41Yes, that's right.
15:42So, this is quite helpful.
15:45Helping a country that is unable to pay its foreign debt.
15:52But still, Indonesia's foreign debt needs are quite large
15:57because there is a budget deficit that needs financing
16:02because Indonesia continues to build in the future.
16:05Also, the new government will also implement programs
16:10that require quite high costs.
16:12So, this foreign debt can still compensate for the future Rupiah.
16:19Okay.
16:20What about the deficit reserve?
16:22Can it guarantee the condition of liquidity,
16:26dollar needs, for example, or Rupiah in Indonesia?
16:30Yes.
16:31Compared to 1998,
16:34which was only tens of billions of dollars,
16:37now it's hundreds of billions of dollars.
16:42So, it's quite large.
16:44And indeed, since last year,
16:46the deficit has been decreasing
16:48because the BI intervened by using the deficit reserve.
16:53But it seems that it is still strong enough
16:56to protect Rupiah for now.
17:02There needs to be a collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies
17:06to ensure that our economic condition is stable
17:09and the value of Rupiah is also stable there.
17:13Mr. Arislam.
17:14Yes, that's right.
17:15So, what the BI has done
17:18must be consistent with what the government has done or vice versa.
17:21Maybe the government can no longer resist
17:25to borrow in the US dollar as before.
17:30And also, the government must maintain a collusive condition in Indonesia
17:35so that investment from abroad can continue to enter Indonesia.
17:41So that investors can continue to increase in Indonesia.
17:45Okay.
17:46That's a glimpse of the deficit of Rupiah.
17:49Is there any side that benefits from the deficit of Rupiah?
17:52Is it imported?
17:54Or how?
17:55In other words, the condition of the goods there
17:57or is it exported that benefits?
17:59Because we know we can expect the dollar
18:03with a price that may be better
18:06if we do a faster export there.
18:09Yes, I think there is a positive.
18:12The positive is that goods in Indonesia are considered cheaper
18:15if they are bought from the US dollar.
18:18So, exporting is benefited from this.
18:22Like exporting mining goods.
18:26Okay.
18:27Maybe the demand can increase
18:31because of the increase in the dollar.
18:33Manufacturing goods that are exported
18:37are also helped by the deficit of Rupiah.
18:41But on the other hand,
18:43importers or companies that import goods
18:47such as textiles,
18:50or livestock feed,
18:52or fertilizer,
18:54are still affected by the deficit of Rupiah.
19:06But overall, the deficit of Rupiah is more negative for the country
19:14because it reduces the trust of investors
19:20on the fundamental condition of Indonesia's economy in the future.
19:24Okay.
19:25What will the financial market be like in the future
19:27if you look at the global and domestic events?
19:34Yes.
19:37Of course, countries around the world will protect their own currencies
19:43so that they are not too weak against the US dollar.
19:47Because this will invite the future.
19:52Okay.
19:53Investors do not hesitate to enter Indonesia
19:56so that economic delays in the future will occur.
20:00Yes. And can this currency swap be a solution
20:03in the current situation?
20:06If we look at the dominance of the dollar,
20:08the dominance of the dollar is still quite large.
20:10According to the IMF report,
20:12it is still around 60% of the world's currency.
20:15Okay.
20:16According to the Bank of International Settlements,
20:19the transaction of forex to the dollar is still 88%.
20:23Okay.
20:24So, it has to be done.
20:26But so far, it has not had a significant impact
20:30to reduce the dependence of countries on the US dollar.
20:34Yes. But there are already many countries,
20:36including Indonesia,
20:37who choose to use other currencies other than the US dollar.
20:40So, the dominance has begun to be reduced.
20:42According to you, the policy that has been implemented
20:44for the past few years,
20:46can it be felt as a benefit
20:48in the current weakening of the Rupiah dollar?
20:52Yes, on a small scale, it is quite beneficial.
20:55We don't have to look for dollars anymore.
20:57Okay.
20:58But globally,
21:01it still cannot reduce the dominance of the US dollar in the world.
21:07The US dollar is still an obstacle for international trade.
21:13Okay.
21:14So, in order to reduce the dependence on the US dollar,
21:19it seems quite difficult.
21:21It is done by many countries,
21:23even though the currency swap,
21:25the cooperation between countries
21:27by using their own currencies
21:29for international trade transactions
21:31does not seem quite optimal, Mr. Arslan.
21:34Yes.
21:35But it has to be done.
21:37If not, when will it start?
21:39Okay.
21:40Maybe slowly, in the future.
21:42It takes time.
21:44So that the use of the dollar can be reduced
21:48both domestically and internationally.
21:50Okay.
21:51Is there any difficulty internationally?
21:53Do we really have to replace the switching,
21:56as you said, when it comes to money?
21:59Yes, because of the use.
22:01The use is still massive, still a lot.
22:03So, there needs to be a special approach for traders.
22:07They just sell things in the US dollar.
22:10Okay.
22:11Foreign currency.
22:13It has to be converted to the US dollar first.
22:16And is there any other option?
22:18Maybe when we want to do business with trade,
22:21we use the currency, for example,
22:23just rupiah, or maybe another currency.
22:27Is this possible?
22:29For the current global conditions,
22:32there is no limit anymore.
22:36Yes, it is possible.
22:38But maybe the scale is still small.
22:41It needs to be closer to the traders.
22:44Okay.
22:45Because they also have to convert rupiah.
22:47How much does rupiah cost?
22:49They have to convert it back to the dollar.
22:51Okay.
22:52It's the same.
22:53Yes.
22:54Okay.
22:55So, there are challenges if we do switching
22:58or currency swap,
23:00both government and traders.
23:02Okay, Mr. Ariston.
23:03Thank you very much for your time and sharing.
23:06As you said, Mr. Mirsa,
23:07to address the weakness of the rupiah exchange rate
23:10against the US dollar.
23:11And we hope it won't have a long-term impact.
23:15Thank you.
23:16Congratulations on your activities in Bali.
23:18Stay healthy, Mr. Ariston.
23:20Thank you, Mr. Prasetyo.
23:21Good morning.
23:22Good morning.
23:23Okay, Mr. Mirsa.
23:24I've been with you for an hour in Market Review.
23:26I'm Prasetyo Iwo.
23:28Thank you and see you next time.
23:58Thank you.
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