00:00 You know, we've been talking the last week or so.
00:03 I don't know if you were listening.
00:04 We talked about the Ackman bottom, right?
00:07 Just getting farther and farther away from that.
00:11 But it's easy to look back and say,
00:14 oh yeah, that was a bottom.
00:16 Now we've had this rally.
00:17 Now, as a trader or investor, if you miss this move,
00:21 you gotta be much more, I mean, what do you do?
00:23 Do you chase and chase and chase?
00:25 And then when you get the pullback, add some more.
00:28 So if you wanna talk to TLT,
00:30 we can talk to TLT or talk to bonds,
00:32 but let's move forward.
00:33 Like we've had the move now.
00:35 Now, how should traders and investors approach it?
00:38 - Well, you know, just like Dennis was saying a minute ago,
00:42 people are continuing to buy the dips.
00:44 And so for me, I have to think about
00:48 what timeframe I'm looking for,
00:51 how long am I gonna hold?
00:53 So I'm of the mind that this is a reflexive move.
00:58 It's being brought on by the bond market,
01:01 which is of course much bigger than the stock market per se.
01:06 And the bonds are having that push up on this notion that,
01:12 hey, he's gonna have to cut rates.
01:18 And so by him saying, hey, let's just take a peek
01:22 at what's going on.
01:24 Let's watch these interest rates.
01:26 We're ahead of the curve.
01:28 Let's watch these interest rates leak into the market.
01:33 We're running pretty well.
01:35 No need to raise again.
01:37 Let's just have a peek and take a look at this.
01:40 Remember, the goal is to break the back of inflation.
01:44 So if the stock market comes out and expands dramatically,
01:52 that's going to create buying after people say,
01:57 hey, I made a bunch in the market here.
02:02 I'm gonna turn that to cash and I'm gonna buy X.
02:06 And what that ends up doing is keeping the rate of buying
02:11 things in the economy much higher.
02:15 And so what we're doing is feeding into something
02:19 that's eventually gonna eat itself.
02:21 So my thought is this, think about your timeframe.
02:25 If you're looking for, hey, I wanna hold on
02:28 for the long haul, wait for the aggressive buying to stop
02:33 and look for a retrace into a higher low.
02:41 And that might be, I'm like you, Joel.
02:43 I love the monthly charts.
02:45 I start with the monthly charts every day.
02:49 I look at them and I go, hmm, where am I in relation-
02:52 - You got a monthly chart right up here.
02:53 I look at the month, I talk about the monthlies
02:56 all the time, but you brought something back here.
02:59 You brought me back to my ninth grade geometry days
03:02 with Mr. Cisco and I was good at algebra,
03:05 but I wasn't very good at geometry.
03:07 Could you just go a little bit more in depth here
03:10 as far as the reflexive property and the components,
03:14 the bond market, the other factors
03:16 that are playing into this?
03:18 - Okay, so I see reflexive motion as any motion
03:23 that has a tremendous amount of speed on it.
03:29 So not geometry, but physics in terms of,
03:32 I'm gonna throw a ball with a certain amount of speed
03:35 against a wall, it's gonna hit that wall
03:39 and outside of any force that's sitting on that wall,
03:44 I'm gonna have another bounce in the equal
03:46 and opposite direction, all else the same.
03:50 And so what it tells me is these macro voices
03:53 are still saying, listen, we're gonna have a hard landing.
03:56 We're gonna have a hard landing.
03:58 We're gonna have a hard landing.
03:59 And so a lot of people are listening to that
04:02 and they're going short and they're saying,
04:05 these guys are right.
04:06 I think this is going down and they're shorting.
04:09 Sorry about the sun, it's coming in the window there
04:11 and I know it's got my-
04:14 - Sun's always shining on you, Ann Marie.
04:16 (all laughing)
04:20 - So when that move is like that,
04:23 it means people are running for the fire escapes
04:26 if they're short.
04:27 If they're long or if they wanna go long,
04:31 they're terrified of, oh my goodness,
04:33 I'm gonna miss the move.
04:35 So they'll wait for an hourly candle to go by,
04:37 another hourly candle go by and finally they'll go,
04:40 I got a pile in, I might've missed the bottom,
04:43 so I'm gonna go in big and I'm gonna watch it
04:45 until it stops moving higher
04:47 and then I'm gonna try and get out.
04:50 And so all of these personalities
04:52 are moving together in here
04:55 and what we really have to think about is,
04:58 what does a stable move look like?
05:00 And really, I don't even know where we can find
05:03 a stable move per se, but if we just look at Spy into 2020,
05:09 when we hit that bottom and it began to lift
05:13 off of that March low, that April low,
05:17 we had, if we take a look at the weekly chart,
05:21 we can see that, or even the monthly, that works fine,
05:25 we can see that we have a V bottom on the month,
05:29 but if we look at the weekly chart,
05:32 we can actually see that there's a bottoming formation
05:35 or even the daily, it shows us that.
05:37 There's a little bit of a bottoming formation
05:41 when it comes into there and it stops heading lower.
05:44 Just like Dennis said a minute ago,
05:46 which is absolute wisdom, how to buy a dip
05:51 is that you wait for that wick to start showing up
05:55 on those lower levels where the chart
05:58 has stopped heading down
06:01 and it begins to make these higher lows
06:03 because that's where buying pressure comes from, underneath.
06:06 Buying pressure always comes from underneath.
06:09 It's selling pressure that comes from above.
06:11 And so as we watch this, we can see, wait a second,
06:15 I did pull back and try to make a higher low
06:19 because there are people, a lot like me,
06:22 that are sitting going, is this real?
06:27 Is this a real look for a swing trade?
06:31 And my contention is that it isn't.
06:33 It's great motion for buy the dip.
06:38 And I know you said this a couple of days ago on Twitter,
06:40 Dennis, I saw you.
06:42 You said, hey, listen, buy the dip
06:44 is really continuing to work.
06:47 And until it doesn't, if we're intraday traders,
06:51 that's what we're gonna have to do.
06:53 So my thought is, listen,
06:55 if it holds the close of the prior day,
06:57 whatever chart you're looking at, it's in a buy zone
07:00 and you manage your risk from there,
07:03 depending on where the last level
07:05 of old resistance, new support sits.
07:08 And that's really moving into that tactical place of,
07:13 okay, I'm gonna wait for the shallow pullback
07:15 and I'm gonna buy.
07:16 And as long as it makes a higher high,
07:19 and as long as it makes a higher low,
07:21 say on your 30 minute or hourly candlestick,
07:24 you stay in the trade until the market tells you
07:27 that you're wrong.
07:29 - Love it.
07:30 - Don't look for the top here.
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