00:00 Ukraine is fighting Russia on many fronts.
00:03 And just as progress on the battlefield is hard won, so too these days are its diplomatic
00:08 gains.
00:09 Since Russia's invasion last year, Western support for Kyiv has remained largely strong.
00:15 But cracks are beginning to form in the pro-Ukraine alliance.
00:19 The United States is Ukraine's greatest supporter by a long way, allocating more than
00:24 $110 billion (£8.9 billion) in military and economic support.
00:30 Yet over the weekend, Congress ditched plans to give Ukraine another $6 billion in a bitter
00:36 internal battle over how to fund the federal government.
00:39 Some Republicans think support for Ukraine should be curbed, others think it should be
00:44 provided only if President Biden spends more on U.S. border security.
00:49 Mr Biden has promised Ukraine another $24 billion soon, but that may now be vulnerable
00:55 to internal U.S. politics.
00:58 On the other side of the Atlantic, Ukraine may be about to lose another ally.
01:03 In Slovakia, elections saw Robert Fico's SMUR party win most seats, although he still
01:08 needs to form a coalition.
01:10 The populist former prime minister is widely seen as pro-Moscow and anti-Kyiv, having campaigned
01:17 on a promise to end military support for Ukraine.
01:20 "People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine," he said.
01:25 That means, alongside Viktor Orban's Hungary, there are now two European Union countries
01:31 ready to veto further collective EU action to support Ukraine.
01:35 Neighbouring Poland is also holding elections soon, and there too, doubts about supporting
01:41 Ukraine have been aired.
01:43 The ruling Law and Justice Party has promised to halt the import of cheap Ukrainian grain
01:48 that Polish farmers oppose.
01:50 The president, Andrzej Duda, has described Ukraine as a "drowning man" dragging down
01:55 his rescuers.
01:57 Prime Minister Mateusz Mrajecki said Poland was no longer transferring any weapons to
02:02 Ukraine, although this was later reversed.
02:05 So electoral politics are beginning to bite into Ukraine's support.
02:09 So too are other issues, whether the global cost of living crisis or the climate emergency.
02:14 At the United Nations General Assembly recently, it was noticeable how Ukraine was no longer
02:20 automatically at the top of the agenda.
02:23 President Volodymyr Zelensky's first in-person speeches to the UN Assembly and the Security
02:28 Council did not command the same attention as before.
02:32 Diplomats noticed the sheen had come off the Ukrainian delegation as leaders from the Global
02:37 South pressed their own agendas.
02:39 All of this is what strategists in the Kremlin have been long been hoping for.
02:43 Diplomats believe Vladimir Putin wants to wait out the West, keeping the fighting going
02:48 until Ukraine begins to lose international support and seeks a political settlement.
02:54 Western leaders insist they have the stamina to stay the course and show more strategic
02:58 patience than Russia expects.
03:01 Not for nothing did the UK foreign secretary, James Cleverley, tell the House magazine this
03:07 weekend that international fatigue with the war was a big thing and something we have
03:11 got to deal with, acknowledging it was putting pressure on countries all over the world.
03:16 His counter-argument was that if Western support for Ukraine diminished, then those pressures,
03:22 whether economic or political, would only get worse.
03:26 This is tough and this is painful.
03:28 But it will only be more tough and more painful if we falter.
03:32 To counter that impression, EU foreign ministers visited Kyiv on Monday, meeting there collectively
03:37 for the first time in a demonstration of support.
03:41 Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, told the BBC that the EU would maintain its
03:47 military backing, so far worth more than a negation 5bn, a pound 4.3bn.
03:55 One thing is clear, for us Europeans, the war of Russia against Ukraine is an existential
04:00 threat and we have to react according to that, he said.
04:04 But he admitted he was worried about Congress's decision to block further aid.
04:08 The counter-argument diplomats are making is that more than the fate of Ukraine hangs
04:13 in the balance on the battlefield.
04:15 They say countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America are beginning to warm to this argument.
04:21 Before, some of those countries dismissed the fighting as a European regional war that
04:25 had little to do with them.
04:27 But Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its attacks on Ukrainian
04:32 grain silos have made it easier for Ukraine and the West to argue that the global south
04:37 has a stake in the fight.
04:39 Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kulib, told reporters, "What is at stake in Ukraine
04:45 is much bigger than just Ukraine.
04:47 It's about the stability and predictability of the world.
04:50 So Ukraine is playing a long game."
04:53 Key figures within the government have long anticipated that Western support might soften
04:57 over time.
04:59 They have been ready for the vagaries of transatlantic electoral cycles.
05:03 And they know the real test of Western unity may come later at two key moments.
05:07 First, if Donald Trump is re-elected president next year and curbs US support, then Ukraine
05:14 will face a big decision about how long it can continue fighting.
05:18 And second, if there is some kind of end to the conflict, then allies may find it hard
05:23 to unite around the compromises that might be needed to reach a political settlement.
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