Today is Sunday 8th November 2015 and we are going to briefly discuss silver price predictions for the next 5 years.
Many of our listeners know that long term we are bullish on gold and silver. They also know that when we discuss these commodities, we are taking a 10+ year view on gold and a 20+ year view on silver, though obviously this does not mean we do not see prices rising before then, but that we are warning, do not seriously place large amounts of capital into these commodities unless you can wait that period of time without having to sell them. Naturally, we are speaking about purchasers of the physical as opposed to paper contracts which behave and trade on very short time periods. Now many gold and silver bulls believe that both gold and silver are going to rise very soon and very dramatically.
However, short of a most serious International crisis, few of the mainstream experts support this view. Now we are aware that conspiracy theorists claim that the reason for this, is that every major institution is in it together, and are deceiving the public. Well, all we can say from first-hand experience of working with people at the top of the UK Banking system, is that much of our time was spent on how to outsmart and ‘beat’ our banking rivals and competitors, after all we wanted our company share price to rise and our individual banks to prosper. This meant that when we sent our traders loose on the market, they knew that they were in the arena buying and selling, in order to make a profit, and for every buyer there is a seller and for every seller there is a buyer – and we ask you not to forget that. Bearing in mind, that it is the institutions that are mainly buying and selling, if they all thought exactly the same way, then no trade would take place, and therefore if they were ‘in it together’ then there would be no market in which to trade.
So who is predicting what and when? Please bear in mind these two criteria; (1) prices are valued in US dollars; and (2) assuming no global black swan or hyper-inflation event takes place.
Let’s look at silver and those who are quite bullish:
Gary Christenson of the deviant investor.com predicts that by 2020 silver is priced at $35 - $50
Christopher Aaron of the Silver-phoenix500.com forecasts $50 per oz
Consensus economics.com foresees prices around the $21 level
Now those who perhaps are more mainstream and less bullish:
The EIU - The Economist Intelligence Unit – forecasts $18.80 for 2020
The World Bank - $16.40
The Economy Forecast Agency and independent organisation predict an average of between $9.50 and $11.50 for 2020.
So there we have it. We have left out the extremists like the major pumpers who are quoting hundreds of dollars and also the major doom and gloom merchants like Harry Dent who are predicting very low single figures – as these guys are all forecasting major economic collapse or severe deflation.
Our view, generally falls in line with the Silver Institute when they pronounced last year, that based on current silver demand and supply conditions, they could not see silver rising above the $20 level for a number of years yet. We believe that silver will rise to $20 as peak supply will have been reached by 2018 and then a squeeze will evolve, however, should world economic conditions deteriorate further then this will restrict silver’s price rise and should they improve then this will aid its price.
Many of our listeners know that long term we are bullish on gold and silver. They also know that when we discuss these commodities, we are taking a 10+ year view on gold and a 20+ year view on silver, though obviously this does not mean we do not see prices rising before then, but that we are warning, do not seriously place large amounts of capital into these commodities unless you can wait that period of time without having to sell them. Naturally, we are speaking about purchasers of the physical as opposed to paper contracts which behave and trade on very short time periods. Now many gold and silver bulls believe that both gold and silver are going to rise very soon and very dramatically.
However, short of a most serious International crisis, few of the mainstream experts support this view. Now we are aware that conspiracy theorists claim that the reason for this, is that every major institution is in it together, and are deceiving the public. Well, all we can say from first-hand experience of working with people at the top of the UK Banking system, is that much of our time was spent on how to outsmart and ‘beat’ our banking rivals and competitors, after all we wanted our company share price to rise and our individual banks to prosper. This meant that when we sent our traders loose on the market, they knew that they were in the arena buying and selling, in order to make a profit, and for every buyer there is a seller and for every seller there is a buyer – and we ask you not to forget that. Bearing in mind, that it is the institutions that are mainly buying and selling, if they all thought exactly the same way, then no trade would take place, and therefore if they were ‘in it together’ then there would be no market in which to trade.
So who is predicting what and when? Please bear in mind these two criteria; (1) prices are valued in US dollars; and (2) assuming no global black swan or hyper-inflation event takes place.
Let’s look at silver and those who are quite bullish:
Gary Christenson of the deviant investor.com predicts that by 2020 silver is priced at $35 - $50
Christopher Aaron of the Silver-phoenix500.com forecasts $50 per oz
Consensus economics.com foresees prices around the $21 level
Now those who perhaps are more mainstream and less bullish:
The EIU - The Economist Intelligence Unit – forecasts $18.80 for 2020
The World Bank - $16.40
The Economy Forecast Agency and independent organisation predict an average of between $9.50 and $11.50 for 2020.
So there we have it. We have left out the extremists like the major pumpers who are quoting hundreds of dollars and also the major doom and gloom merchants like Harry Dent who are predicting very low single figures – as these guys are all forecasting major economic collapse or severe deflation.
Our view, generally falls in line with the Silver Institute when they pronounced last year, that based on current silver demand and supply conditions, they could not see silver rising above the $20 level for a number of years yet. We believe that silver will rise to $20 as peak supply will have been reached by 2018 and then a squeeze will evolve, however, should world economic conditions deteriorate further then this will restrict silver’s price rise and should they improve then this will aid its price.
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