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John Maynard Keynes, figure singulière du XXe siècle, est sollicité pour négocier les clauses du traité de Versailles en 1919. Compte tenu des réparations exigées, il présage de conséquences catastrophiques sur l'Allemagne. Perçu comme une penseur de l'économie en situation de crise, ses théories seront mises en pratique lors des crises financières de 2008 et de la Covid-19.
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00:00:16A longa, nós serão todos mortos.
00:00:19Os economistas se dão uma tâcha tão fácil e tão inútil,
00:00:23se, em uma hora orada, eles se contentam de dizer que,
00:00:27quando a tempestade é passada, o océano se devia calme.
00:00:38O 30 maio 1919, John Maynard Keynes é à Paris,
00:00:43com a delegacia britânica chamada de negociar os acordos de paix de Versailles,
00:00:47mas enfim à a Primeira Guerra Mundial.
00:00:50Keynes é afaibido por a gripe espagnole,
00:00:52que a tuado 50 milhões de pessoas.
00:00:57Keynes survit,
00:00:58e a colera profunda que lhe inspire o traité de Versailles
00:01:01l'incite à écrire o best-seller
00:01:03Les conséquences économiques de la paix.
00:01:11Selon lui,
00:01:12as réparations exorbitantes
00:01:14imposées à l'Allemagne e à l'Autriche
00:01:16ne peuvent conduire qu'à la destruction de leur économie
00:01:19et à une nouvelle guerre.
00:01:23Il écrit à sa mère
00:01:24qu'il n'a jamais vu tant d'imbéciles réunis
00:01:27en un seul et même endroit.
00:01:33A la fin de la guerre,
00:01:35chacun devait à tous les autres d'immenses sommes de monnaie.
00:01:39L'Allemagne doit beaucoup aux Alliés,
00:01:42les Alliés à l'Angleterre
00:01:45et l'Angleterre aux États-Unis.
00:01:49Toute cette situation
00:01:50est au plus haut point artificiel,
00:01:52trompeuse et contrariante.
00:01:55Nous ne pourrons plus jamais nous remuer
00:01:57si nous ne délivrons pas nos membres
00:01:59de ces entraves de papier.
00:02:00C'est-à-dire qu'il n'a pas été appelé
00:02:12l'économique conséquence de la guerre.
00:02:14C'était la première guerre
00:02:16qui a été appelé à l'économique
00:02:20à l'économique.
00:02:21Il n'a pas été appelé
00:02:23à l'économique.
00:02:23Il n'a pas été appelé
00:02:24à l'économique.
00:02:25Il n'a jamais été un homme de gouvernement
00:02:29n'aurait pas été appelé
00:02:32à l'économie de l'affaires
00:02:34de la manière dont il n'a jamais été
00:02:36dans le 19e siècle.
00:02:40Nous ne pouvons pas quitter ce sujet
00:02:42en ayant l'air de croire
00:02:43qu'il ne dépend que de nos engagements
00:02:45ou de phénomènes économiques.
00:02:49Une politique qui réduirait à la servitude
00:02:52toute une génération de l'Allemagne,
00:02:54qui avilirait la vie
00:02:56de millions d'êtres humains,
00:02:57qui priverait de bonheur
00:02:59toute une nation serait odieuse
00:03:01et abominable.
00:03:03Même si elle nous enrichissait.
00:03:06Même si elle ne se met pas la ruine
00:03:07de la vie civilisée de l'Europe entière.
00:03:11Certains la préconisant au nom de la justice.
00:03:15Au milieu des grands événements
00:03:17de l'histoire humaine,
00:03:18au milieu du déroulement
00:03:20du destin complexe des nations,
00:03:22la justice n'est pas si simple.
00:03:25Et à supposer qu'elle le soit,
00:03:27les nations ne sont pas autorisées
00:03:29par la religion ou la morale naturelle
00:03:32à punir les enfants de leurs ennemis
00:03:34des crimes de leurs pères
00:03:35ou de leurs maîtres.
00:03:36Les conséquences économiques de la justice
00:03:40de la justice
00:03:40sont encore extraordinaires
00:03:43relevant.
00:03:44C'est une remarquable book.
00:03:45C'est l'unique économique
00:03:47qui a, pendant 100 ans,
00:03:50restait en publication.
00:03:52Les leaders de Versailles
00:03:54ont été déterminés,
00:03:55si vous voulez,
00:03:56à l'extrait de l'eau
00:03:58de l'eau
00:03:58de la stone
00:03:59que c'était germain.
00:04:00Et il a dit,
00:04:01qu'elle ne peut pas faire ça.
00:04:02La capacité de l'Europe
00:04:03est non-existante.
00:04:04Et ce qu'il faut faire,
00:04:06c'est aider à l'Allemagne
00:04:07et à l'Europe
00:04:08et à l'État
00:04:09et à l'État
00:04:10et à l'État
00:04:10et à l'État
00:04:11pour les récovers.
00:04:12Mais il n'a pas
00:04:13à persuader les leaders
00:04:15de ça.
00:04:15Il était très enlevé.
00:04:18Si nous visons délibérément
00:04:19à l'appauvrissement
00:04:20de l'Europe centrale,
00:04:22la revanche,
00:04:22nous pouvons le prédire,
00:04:24ne se fera pas attendre.
00:04:27Il a eu un propos
00:04:28vraiment brillant
00:04:31pour permettre
00:04:33de financer
00:04:34pour renuncer
00:04:35a accélération
00:04:38d'Europe
00:04:39pour financer
00:04:40le remuner
00:04:41qui n'a pas besoin
00:04:44pour protéger
00:04:45un bond
00:04:46pour des gros
00:04:47euros
00:04:48aux années
00:04:49et
00:04:51un bond
00:04:52en début d'origine
00:04:54de l'Union
00:04:55par les calculats
00:04:56des Français
00:04:58de l'Union
00:04:58mais les autres
00:04:59aux Hauts-Unis
00:05:01Guaranteed by the United States, Britain and France.
00:05:05The key thing about the bond would be
00:05:08that it would be prioritised over all other German obligations.
00:05:14And that was its great flaw
00:05:16as far as President Wilson and his advisor, Thomas Lamont,
00:05:22who was a Wall Street banker,
00:05:24that Germany would prioritise repayment of the bond,
00:05:27which was now guaranteed, if you like, by public authority
00:05:31over the repayment of private bonds issued by Wall Street.
00:05:36And so Thomas Lamont wrote President Wilson's rejection of the idea.
00:05:42And as a result, Germany was not given the finance needed.
00:05:47La lettre insiste sur la nécessité de faire passer les crédits d'après-guerre
00:05:51par les canaux privés habituels.
00:05:55J.P. Morgan a massivement augmenté les prêts aux États étrangers pendant la guerre.
00:06:00Cette banque américaine ne peut prendre le risque
00:06:02que leur remboursement soit reporté
00:06:04ou qu'il passe après le financement des obligations souveraines.
00:06:07La défaite de Keynes face à Wall Street mène au retour de l'étalon or,
00:06:11système où la valeur d'une devise est basée sur un poids en or.
00:06:15Les intérêts privés règnent sur les marchés financiers,
00:06:17la dette, les taux de change et les taux d'intérêt.
00:06:39Keynes démissionne du trésor britannique
00:06:41et écrit un livre où le président Wilson apparaît comme un homme
00:06:45à la pensée plus théologique qu'intellectuel.
00:06:49Quant à Lloyd George, il le qualifie de démagogue.
00:06:53« Monsieur le Premier ministre,
00:06:56je tiens à vous avertir que samedi,
00:06:58je m'éclipserai de cette scène de cauchemar.
00:07:02Je ne peux plus être d'aucune utilité ici.
00:07:05J'ai continué à espérer,
00:07:07même au cours de ces dernières semaines qui ont été épouvantables,
00:07:10que vous trouveriez un moyen de faire du traité
00:07:13un document juste et efficace.
00:07:16Mais désormais, il semble qu'il soit trop tard.
00:07:19La bataille est perdue. »
00:07:23« À la conférence du Traité de paix de Versailles,
00:07:51Keynes est profondément ému par la description
00:07:54que fait Karl Melchior des souffrances de l'Allemagne.
00:07:57En secret, il aide le conseiller allemand à négocier un meilleur accord
00:08:01qui stipule que l'Allemagne livrera sa flotte marchande
00:08:05en échange d'une aide alimentaire.
00:08:11Keynes tient également à ce que l'Autriche conserve ses vaches
00:08:15pour fournir du lait aux enfants.
00:08:17Certains observateurs et historiens
00:08:19l'accusent d'avoir trahi les intérêts britanniques
00:08:22et dénoncent un traité excessivement favorable à l'Allemagne
00:08:25qui n'aurait en réalité payé que très peu de réparations.
00:08:34Il était très, très, très moraliste.
00:08:39Il croit en bien et en mal.
00:08:42Et il croit que notre travail dans ce monde
00:08:46était de créer plus de bonnes.
00:08:50Et un des principaux symptômes de mal
00:08:55dans son vie, la guerre et l'économie massuelle.
00:09:02Et ce sont des choses qu'il pensait pas nécessaires.
00:09:06Et si vous aviez un sens correct moral
00:09:09et une intelligence suffisante,
00:09:12vous pourriez s'en sortir de l'eux.
00:09:16Si la première grande contribution internationale de Keynes
00:09:20a été d'élaborer un plan pour sauver le monde
00:09:22de la dépression économique,
00:09:25il a par la suite rendu un service inestimable à son propre pays
00:09:28en mettant au point un plan de financement
00:09:31de la Deuxième Guerre mondiale.
00:09:33À certains moments,
00:09:35le Royaume-Uni a frôlé la capitulation
00:09:36faute de moyens pour financer la guerre.
00:09:40La idée clé est que les économies capitaliste
00:09:46s'éloignent,
00:09:47ils vont à la dépression
00:09:49et ils ne reprennent automatiquement.
00:09:52Et donc, le gouvernement a dû s'éloigner
00:09:55et s'assurer qu'ils reprennent.
00:09:59C'est-à-dire qu'il s'éloignent,
00:10:27l'ancienne doctrine,
00:10:34L'économiste Tom Butler-Bowden résume la pensée de Keynes.
00:10:39Au lieu de relancer une économie en berne,
00:10:41la flexibilité des salaires enrichit simplement les riches
00:10:44et appauvrit les pauvres.
00:10:45On a alors une économie entraînée
00:10:47non par les salaires,
00:10:48mais par les capitaux.
00:10:50Si ces actifs demeurent entre les mêmes mains,
00:10:52il n'y a ni dynamisme,
00:10:53ni mobilité sociale.
00:10:57Ce qu'on a touché ici,
00:10:58c'est la nature de l'argent.
00:11:01Et ce que j'ai vraiment pensé sur Keynes,
00:11:03c'est qu'il comprenait l'argent.
00:11:05Il comprenait l'argent
00:11:07comme un constructeur social,
00:11:10une technologie sociale.
00:11:11C'est-à-dire qu'il comprenait l'economiste,
00:11:15orthodoxe,
00:11:15monétariste économistes,
00:11:17pensent de l'argent comme un commodité.
00:11:19Si vous pensez de l'argent comme un commodité,
00:11:21vous pensez de l'argent comme un souci.
00:11:25C'est finit.
00:11:27C'est comme l'or ou le verre.
00:11:29Il y a seulement ça beaucoup.
00:11:31Si vous comprenez l'argent comme un constructeur social,
00:11:34vous comprenez que l'argent est une chose que nous avons inventé.
00:11:38C'est un arrangement social,
00:11:39un arrangement, si vous voulez,
00:11:40un obligation à payer en la future,
00:11:43un promise à payer.
00:11:48One needs to start with his parents.
00:11:51They were very supportive,
00:11:54immensely supportive of him.
00:11:56They idolised him in a way.
00:11:58They saw that he was very, very clever to start with.
00:12:01His father, in particular,
00:12:04took a very, very strong interest
00:12:06in all the phases of his development.
00:12:09and his father's diaries express
00:12:12the wonder of the father
00:12:15at this burgeoning son.
00:12:17One result of that
00:12:18was that Keynes was never a rebel
00:12:21against his family.
00:12:23He loved them
00:12:25and he understood what they had done.
00:12:28He understood what their place was
00:12:29in the scheme of things.
00:12:31He was very close to my parents.
00:12:33He used to work at my father's study.
00:12:35My father and mother were not advanced in any way.
00:12:37They were not sort of avant-garde.
00:12:40But they were sober citizens.
00:12:42My mother was a public character.
00:12:44She became mayor of Cambridge.
00:12:47My father was an administrator
00:12:48in the university.
00:12:50He was also, of course, an economist.
00:12:52So the people we had to come,
00:12:53we came to the house
00:12:54were intellectual people.
00:12:56Philosophers would come
00:12:56and have discussions sometimes.
00:12:57We ate lunch and so on.
00:12:59We remained to join in, of course.
00:13:00I just didn't know the first thing about them.
00:13:03A plusieurs reprises,
00:13:05Keynes fait appel à ses parents
00:13:07pour surmonter de grosses pertes financières.
00:13:12Cette certitude
00:13:12qu'une relance économique personnelle
00:13:14est toujours possible
00:13:15avec l'aide de proches solidaires,
00:13:17ingénieux et fortunés,
00:13:19a probablement inspiré
00:13:20ses réflexions macroéconomiques.
00:13:27Son père et sa mère
00:13:28lui ont tous deux survécu.
00:13:31Keynes came from
00:13:32a very, very solid
00:13:37Victorian middle class family.
00:13:40But they were what you would call
00:13:41chapel and trade.
00:13:43They weren't aristocracy.
00:13:45They weren't even
00:13:46upper middle class.
00:13:48They'd made money
00:13:49and one part was religious,
00:13:52non-conformist,
00:13:53another part ran a business,
00:13:56a medium-sized business.
00:13:58And so they were solidly based,
00:14:00but they weren't part of the traditional British ruling class.
00:14:07And he went to Eton as a scholarship boy.
00:14:11And Keynes, in the end,
00:14:13was what you'd call
00:14:15part of the intellectual aristocracy
00:14:18of Britain,
00:14:20which then merged in his life
00:14:23with the social aristocracy
00:14:24because he became Lord Keynes of Tilton.
00:14:28So his parents were wonderful
00:14:30in supporting him.
00:14:33From his father,
00:14:34he got a very high intellectual,
00:14:36idea of high intellectual standards
00:14:38because his father
00:14:39was an eminent academician
00:14:41or logician in his own right.
00:14:43From his mother,
00:14:44a strong sense of moral obligation
00:14:47because her family were Baptists.
00:14:50His grandfather was a Baptist preacher.
00:14:55Devenu membre du groupe de Bloomsbury,
00:14:57un cercle d'intellectuels,
00:14:59d'écrivains et d'artistes,
00:15:01Keynes entretient une liaison passionnée
00:15:02avec l'artiste Duncan Grant
00:15:04et affiche ouvertement son homosexualité.
00:15:07Ses aventures homosexuelles,
00:15:09nombreuses dans sa jeunesse,
00:15:11l'entraînent hors de son milieu social étriqué.
00:15:17À Eton et Cambridge,
00:15:19Keynes multiplie les conquêtes masculines.
00:15:22Après Cambridge,
00:15:24il aborde fréquemment des hommes dans la rue.
00:15:26Il consigne dans son journal
00:15:28l'américain de Victoria Street,
00:15:31le soldat des bains,
00:15:33le soldat français,
00:15:34le jeune homme dans le parc
00:15:35et bien d'autres.
00:15:38Mais le peintre Duncan Grant
00:15:40reste le grand amour homosexuel de sa vie.
00:15:56Il est également l'amant de Francis St. George Nelson,
00:16:00dont il a fait la connaissance
00:16:02alors que ce dernier posait pour Duncan Grant
00:16:04à l'âge de 17 ans.
00:16:07Tous deux ont une liaison
00:16:08particulièrement scandaleuse pour l'époque
00:16:10avec une certaine Madame Anderson.
00:16:13Après une partie à trois chez cette dernière,
00:16:16Keynes et Nelson sont rejoints
00:16:17par un autre jeune homme
00:16:18qu'ils viennent de rencontrer
00:16:19et s'adonnent à des ébats à deux,
00:16:21à trois et à quatre.
00:16:26Certains feront plus tard le lien
00:16:28entre la vie amoureuse débridée
00:16:29du jeune Keynes
00:16:30et la libéralité de ses idées économiques.
00:16:34Margaret Thatcher professe notamment
00:16:36une aversion marquée
00:16:37pour les théories keynésiennes.
00:16:43La vie intime de l'économiste
00:16:45est totalement bouleversée
00:16:47par sa rencontre
00:16:48avec la danseuse classique russe
00:16:49Lydia Lopokova.
00:16:52Il retourne soir après soir
00:16:53la voir danser sur scène.
00:16:55Il vient de tomber amoureux
00:16:57d'une femme extraordinairement talentueuse.
00:17:05À la surprise de tous ceux
00:17:07qui le connaissent,
00:17:09Keynes épouse Lydia,
00:17:10une ancienne maîtresse
00:17:11du compositeur Stravinsky
00:17:13que Picasso a dessinée
00:17:14à de nombreuses reprises.
00:17:16Le couple manifeste même
00:17:18un désir d'enfant
00:17:19qui n'aboutit jamais.
00:17:22C'est ce que j'aime
00:17:23de la relation
00:17:24c'est que c'est qu'ils sont
00:17:26que c'est qu'uninhibit.
00:17:28Et Keynes, en particulier,
00:17:30c'est qu'uninhibit.
00:17:31Il était uninhibit
00:17:32dans son vie de la vie
00:17:33et dans son sexuel.
00:17:35Et il m'a aimé
00:17:36ce qu'il y a d'autres.
00:17:38Elle, aussi,
00:17:39c'est qu'uninhibit
00:17:41et spontané.
00:17:43Et je pense que
00:17:44ce qui est magnifique
00:17:45c'est qu'ils ont
00:17:47c'est qu'ils ont
00:17:48c'est qu'ils ont
00:17:50de voir les choses
00:17:50comme elles sont
00:17:51plutôt que comme elles
00:17:53se sont.
00:17:53Donc il y a eu
00:17:54une tremende tension
00:17:55entre elle
00:17:56et les Blumesbury-Sets,
00:17:58les poches
00:17:58Virginia Woolfs
00:18:00de ce monde.
00:18:01Et je pense que
00:18:01ça vient dans
00:18:02leur relation.
00:18:03Et ça vient
00:18:04dans le courage
00:18:06et sa peurlissage
00:18:08dans la pensée
00:18:09de nouvelles idées
00:18:10et dans le déclencher
00:18:12et le déclencher
00:18:12des idées anciennes.
00:18:15Lydia Lopokova
00:18:16a fait une carrière
00:18:16exceptionnelle
00:18:17dans les ballets russes
00:18:18où elle a dansé
00:18:19entre autres partenaires
00:18:21avec Václav Nijinsky.
00:18:24The supposition
00:18:25is that
00:18:26she couldn't
00:18:27have children
00:18:30not that
00:18:31he was sterile.
00:18:33He wanted
00:18:33to continue
00:18:34the dynasty
00:18:35but in the end
00:18:36he had to make
00:18:37do with nephews
00:18:38and nieces
00:18:39and he would
00:18:40have loved children.
00:18:41He would have
00:18:42been a wonderful
00:18:44father I think
00:18:45because he liked
00:18:46company of the young
00:18:48and they all
00:18:49they adored him.
00:18:52Les membres
00:18:53du groupe
00:18:53de Bloomsbury
00:18:54réservent à Lydia
00:18:55un accueil réticent
00:18:56à l'exception
00:18:57de T.S.
00:18:57Elliot
00:18:58et H.G.
00:18:59Wells.
00:19:00I.M.
00:19:01Forster
00:19:01écrira plus tard
00:19:02en guise d'excuse
00:19:03nous l'avions
00:19:04tous sous-estimé.
00:19:08Ménard
00:19:09et Lydia
00:19:09Keynes
00:19:10forment
00:19:11un couple
00:19:11remarquable.
00:19:12Ils correspondent
00:19:13quotidiennement
00:19:14tout au long
00:19:15de leur mariage.
00:19:17Lady Violet
00:19:18Bonham Carter
00:19:19écrit à leur sujet
00:19:21C'était une des unions
00:19:22les plus parfaites
00:19:23qu'il m'était donné
00:19:24de connaître.
00:19:25Jamais deux êtres humains
00:19:26n'ont formé contraste
00:19:28plus saisissant
00:19:29ni procuré à l'autre
00:19:30plus grand bonheur.
00:19:34Existe-t-il la moindre
00:19:35ressemblance
00:19:36entre toi et moi ?
00:19:37Non.
00:19:38Si différent
00:19:39que ça en devient
00:19:40attirant.
00:19:41Je veux m'enrouler
00:19:42autour de toi
00:19:43et t'offrir
00:19:43l'abondance
00:19:44de mes sentiments.
00:19:47J'ai certes
00:19:48une affection
00:19:48orageuse pour toi.
00:19:50Ménard me traverse
00:19:51l'esprit
00:19:52dès le petit matin
00:19:53et jusque tard
00:19:54dans la nuit.
00:19:55Lydia
00:19:57What united them
00:19:59which I think
00:20:00was very very important
00:20:02is Keynes's
00:20:03reverence for artists.
00:20:05He really did think
00:20:06the arts were superior
00:20:08to economics
00:20:08or to practical
00:20:10practical wisdom.
00:20:11He thought
00:20:12artists were the gods
00:20:14of humanity.
00:20:17Lydia Keynes
00:20:18soutient son mari
00:20:19dans toutes sortes
00:20:20de projets
00:20:21en particulier
00:20:22la création
00:20:23de l'Arts Theatre
00:20:23de Cambridge
00:20:24pour lequel
00:20:25tous deux se passionnent
00:20:26dans les dernières années
00:20:27de l'économiste.
00:20:28Beaucoup de comédiens
00:20:29britanniques célèbres
00:20:30ont décroché
00:20:31leur premier grand rôle
00:20:32dans ce théâtre
00:20:33financé par les Keynes.
00:20:35Y compris
00:20:35Peter Hall
00:20:36Trevor Nunn
00:20:38John Barton
00:20:39Toby Robertson
00:20:41Jonathan Miller
00:20:42Derek Jacobi
00:20:43et Ian McKellen
00:20:47Converti par Lydia
00:20:48à la danse classique
00:20:49Keynes fonde
00:20:50le Royal Ballet
00:20:51avec Dame Ninette
00:20:52de Valois.
00:20:55He just threw himself
00:20:57heart and soul
00:20:58into the branch
00:20:59of the English theatre
00:21:01that his wife
00:21:02had sprung from
00:21:02in Russia
00:21:03and between them
00:21:05they certainly gave me
00:21:06a great deal of help.
00:21:08I regard them
00:21:08as the two greatest friends
00:21:10I ever had
00:21:11in the theatre world.
00:21:17Les idées
00:21:18justes ou fausses
00:21:19des philosophes
00:21:20de l'économie
00:21:21et de la politique
00:21:22ont plus d'importance
00:21:24qu'on ne le pense
00:21:24généralement.
00:21:26À vrai dire
00:21:27le monde est presque
00:21:28exclusivement
00:21:29mené par elles.
00:21:31Les hommes d'action
00:21:32qui se croient
00:21:33parfaitement affranchis
00:21:34des influences doctrinales
00:21:35sont d'ordinaire
00:21:36les esclaves
00:21:37de quelques économistes
00:21:38passés.
00:21:44Il y a de l'économie
00:21:44There's a,
00:21:45if I may read
00:21:46a quote
00:21:47from the general theory,
00:21:50if the treasury
00:21:51were to fill
00:21:52old bottles
00:21:53with banknotes,
00:21:55bury them
00:21:56in a disused coal mine
00:21:57filled up
00:21:59with town rubbish
00:22:01and then get them
00:22:02dug up again,
00:22:03there need be
00:22:04no more unemployment.
00:22:06If you get people
00:22:07to work
00:22:08and do things
00:22:10and pay them
00:22:12for it,
00:22:13they will spend money
00:22:14and it doesn't really
00:22:14matter that much
00:22:15what they did,
00:22:17but they will create
00:22:18more purchasing power
00:22:19in the economy
00:22:20and that will cause
00:22:21the wheels of industry
00:22:22to start turning again.
00:22:24Of course,
00:22:25he went on
00:22:26to say
00:22:26it would be much
00:22:27better if they
00:22:27build houses
00:22:28and sort of
00:22:29useful things,
00:22:31but if they can't,
00:22:32if the imagination
00:22:33of the government
00:22:34is too poor
00:22:35to, you know,
00:22:37think of anything
00:22:37useful they can do,
00:22:39digging up holes
00:22:40and filling them up
00:22:41again is better
00:22:42than just paying
00:22:43them to do nothing.
00:22:45Les idées
00:22:46si laborieusement
00:22:47exprimées ici
00:22:48sont extrêmement simples
00:22:50et devraient être
00:22:51évidentes.
00:22:52La difficulté n'est pas
00:22:53de comprendre
00:22:54les idées nouvelles,
00:22:55elle est d'échapper
00:22:57aux idées anciennes
00:22:58qui ont poussé
00:22:59leur ramification
00:22:59dans tous les recoins
00:23:01de l'esprit
00:23:01des personnes
00:23:02ayant reçu
00:23:03la même formation
00:23:04que la plupart
00:23:04d'entre nous.
00:23:06Le fait est que
00:23:07Keynes est
00:23:08déprimé aujourd'hui
00:23:09comme par rapport
00:23:11à la taxe et
00:23:12de l'argent,
00:23:12à la politique fiscale,
00:23:14à la finance publique.
00:23:15Et en fait,
00:23:16il était très
00:23:17non-interessant
00:23:18à la politique fiscale.
00:23:20Ses préoccupations
00:23:21étaient avec
00:23:21la politique monétaire,
00:23:22avec la rate
00:23:23d'interesse,
00:23:24avec le système financier.
00:23:25«Fix ça ! »
00:23:27il lui a dit,
00:23:27et il n'y a pas
00:23:27de la politique fiscale.
00:23:30Donc il était
00:23:31obsédé par,
00:23:32vous savez,
00:23:32c'est la théorie
00:23:33de l'emploi,
00:23:34de l'argent,
00:23:35et de l'argent.
00:23:35Ce n'est pas
00:23:36la théorie
00:23:37générale
00:23:37de la taxe
00:23:38et de l'argent.
00:23:39Le fait que Keynes
00:23:41a été éclaté
00:23:42à être
00:23:43exclusivement
00:23:44sur la politique fiscale,
00:23:46et le fait
00:23:46que la politique fiscale
00:23:47a été
00:23:48l'étonnement
00:23:50dominante
00:23:50de la narrative
00:23:52de l'économie,
00:23:53semble à me
00:23:54une bêtrière
00:23:55de ce qu'il était
00:23:56vraiment.
00:23:58Les principaux
00:23:59ouvrages publiés
00:24:00par Keynes
00:24:00après les conséquences
00:24:01économiques de la paix
00:24:02sont
00:24:03« Traité des probabilités »
00:24:05en 1921,
00:24:06« La réforme monétaire »
00:24:07en 1923,
00:24:09« Un traité sur la monnaie »
00:24:10en 1930,
00:24:11qui introduit le concept
00:24:13du multiplicateur,
00:24:14et « Théorie générale
00:24:16de l'emploi,
00:24:16de l'intérêt
00:24:17et de la monnaie »
00:24:18en 1936.
00:24:23Ceux qui préconisent
00:24:24le retour à l'étalon or
00:24:25ne se rendent pas toujours compte
00:24:27que nos pratiques actuelles
00:24:28nous ont entraînés
00:24:29sur des voies bien différentes.
00:24:32Si nous rétablissons
00:24:33l'étalon or,
00:24:34reviendrons-nous aussi
00:24:35à la conception
00:24:36d'avant-guerre
00:24:37du taux de la banque,
00:24:38permettant aux marées
00:24:39de l'or
00:24:40de se jouer
00:24:40à leur guise
00:24:41du niveau
00:24:41des prises internes ?
00:24:44Ou bien
00:24:45continuerons-nous
00:24:45à développer
00:24:46les innovations
00:24:46empiriques
00:24:47de notre politique
00:24:48actuelle,
00:24:49ignorant la réserve
00:24:51proportionnelle
00:24:51et autorisant,
00:24:52si cela est nécessaire,
00:24:54l'amoncellement
00:24:55de l'or
00:24:55bien au-delà
00:24:56de nos besoins ?
00:24:57En vérité,
00:24:59l'étalon or
00:25:00est déjà
00:25:00une relique barbare.
00:25:06I think the first
00:25:09break,
00:25:10if you like,
00:25:11with conventional
00:25:12thinking
00:25:13was
00:25:14the
00:25:16tract on
00:25:17monetary reform
00:25:201923,
00:25:20when he broke
00:25:21with the
00:25:22orthodox policy
00:25:23of restoring
00:25:24the gold standard
00:25:25because he thought
00:25:26that for England
00:25:28to go back
00:25:29to the gold standard
00:25:30at the rate
00:25:31that they wanted
00:25:32to go back
00:25:33to it,
00:25:33which was
00:25:34the pre-war rate,
00:25:35would inflict
00:25:38deflation
00:25:38and unemployment
00:25:39on Britain.
00:25:41En 1931,
00:25:42le Royaume-Uni
00:25:43finit par abandonner
00:25:44l'étalon or
00:25:45pour son plus grand
00:25:46bénéfice,
00:25:46comme l'avait
00:25:47prédit Keynes.
00:25:58le Royaume-Uni
00:26:01n'est-ce qu'il n'est-ce qu'il n'est
00:26:18poids up again
00:26:20that they must not
00:26:21allow anyone
00:26:22to put them
00:26:23back in the gold cage
00:26:25where they have been
00:26:27pining their hearts out
00:26:28all these years.
00:26:29But he thought of the
00:26:30stimulus really
00:26:32at that time
00:26:33in terms of
00:26:34monetary policy
00:26:36and particularly
00:26:37interest rate policy,
00:26:38but then he developed
00:26:40a theory
00:26:40in the early 30s
00:26:42that the interest rate
00:26:43might be stuck
00:26:44e no curso de desenvolvimento, ele também desenvolveu a ideia de multiplicar.
00:26:51Se um governo gastar um bilhão,
00:26:56então o impacto na economia seria maior do que um bilhão,
00:27:01mais do que um bilhão ao nível nacional.
00:27:08Sua influência na política,
00:27:12uma influência decisiva na política,
00:27:15começou apenas na Segunda Guerra Mundial,
00:27:18depois que a teoria generalizada foi escrita,
00:27:20e nos budgets de Kingsley Wood,
00:27:24desde 1941 até 1941.
00:27:31O chômage n'est pas du tout de même nature qu'il y a un an.
00:27:35Il n'est plus causé par un déficit de la demande,
00:27:38il n'y a plus d'excédent potentiel de l'offre sur les biens que nous voulons.
00:27:45La transition vers le plein emploi est entravée par deux obstacles.
00:27:49Le premier est dû à la difficulté de déplacer la main-d'oeuvre vers les points où elle est requise.
00:27:55Le second, et à l'heure actuelle le plus important,
00:27:59est causé par les difficultés,
00:28:00autres que la pénurie de main-d'oeuvre,
00:28:03qui empêchent la demande existante de devenir effective.
00:28:11Keynes comprend que l'inflation va devenir problématique
00:28:14avec l'envolée de la production de guerre.
00:28:17Plutôt que de relever les taux d'intérêt de façon conséquente,
00:28:20il préconise une hausse des impôts.
00:28:23Tout l'inverse de la politique menée au Royaume-Uni face à la récente inflation,
00:28:28qui a consisté à augmenter à la fois les taux d'intérêt et les impôts,
00:28:32combinant sans doute le pire des deux approches.
00:28:37Donc, ce qu'il a fait, c'est qu'il a fait un échec sur comment payer pour la guerre.
00:28:41Et ce qu'il pouvait voir en 1938 et 1939,
00:28:45ce qu'il ne pouvait pas voir,
00:28:47c'est que très bientôt,
00:28:48l'économie de l'économie de l'économie
00:28:50allait être à plus de capacités.
00:28:52Nous devrions avoir à construire toutes ces armaments
00:28:55et, vous savez,
00:28:56tout ce que nous avons besoin
00:28:58pour combler la guerre.
00:28:59C'est-à-dire que l'économie.
00:29:02C'est-à-dire que l'économie.
00:29:04Et quand les gens soient complètement emploiés,
00:29:06quand vous avez utilisé toutes les nurses,
00:29:09toutes les doctors,
00:29:10tous les gens que vous avez besoin pour combler la guerre,
00:29:12les ingénieurs, et ainsi de suite,
00:29:15et très bientôt, vous seriez à un point de filling.
00:29:17L'économie serait en tant que demande,
00:29:20que les salariés s'augmentaient.
00:29:21Les salariés s'augmentaient,
00:29:22ce qui signifie que les salariés s'augmentaient
00:29:26les salariés,
00:29:27voulaient à consulmer,
00:29:29voulaient à dépenser leur argent.
00:29:31Mais il y a une shortage de salariés
00:29:34car la plupart des salariés
00:29:35sont producés pour détruire,
00:29:38pas pour consulmer.
00:29:42Et ce qu'il a proposé,
00:29:43c'est qu'il a besoin d'avoir des salariés
00:29:45de ces salariés.
00:29:46Mais aussi,
00:29:47ce qu'il a venu,
00:29:49c'est qu'il a besoin de limiter la consommation.
00:29:52Et en tant qu'on parle de salariés
00:29:54de salariés,
00:29:55en d'autres mots,
00:29:56il a dit que les travailleurs
00:29:57devraient à salariés
00:29:59compulsorily,
00:30:00plutôt que consulmer les salariés.
00:30:02Il a donc changé ça
00:30:04à des salariés.
00:30:06C'est une idée très imaginative.
00:30:08Il pourrait vraiment créer
00:30:10la base de fonds pour le Welfare State.
00:30:13Mais il n'a pas été adopté.
00:30:14Mais c'était une grande influence
00:30:17sur la façon dont le budget
00:30:18arithmétique
00:30:19était fait.
00:30:20La situation pour la Seconde World War
00:30:23n'a pas été adoptée.
00:30:25C'était très clair
00:30:26que l'inflation
00:30:27est causée
00:30:28non par trop d'argent
00:30:30chasing trop d'argent,
00:30:31mais par trop d'argent
00:30:33pour une meilleure
00:30:36supplye d'argent.
00:30:37C'est un autre point important
00:30:38sur Keynes.
00:30:39Il n'a pas été
00:30:42juste un fou
00:30:44inflationiste
00:30:44qui croit que
00:30:45il n'a pas d'argent
00:30:46et qu'il n'a pas d'argent
00:30:47pour les prix.
00:30:48Il était très conscient
00:30:49des problèmes de prix.
00:30:50Il voulait
00:30:51du pouvoir
00:30:52d'argent
00:30:52du pouvoir
00:30:53de l'argent
00:30:55de l'argent
00:30:55en plus
00:30:59de l'argent
00:31:00de la ressource
00:31:01du pays.
00:31:04Na parte externa, você tinha que pagar os Américos para pagar
00:31:09para os importações extrares que a Brita tinha que ter.
00:31:14Então, ele pegou os Américos, ele voltou para organizar Lend-Lease.
00:31:21Lend-Lease era uma ideia americana, e era uma ideia americana muito gênhosa,
00:31:26mas Keynes estava lá para arrumar alguns dos termos para isso.
00:31:30L'étape décisive dans le financement de la guerre,
00:31:33c'est la création par Roosevelt du pré-bail.
00:31:36L'accord de pré-bail négocié avec les Américains
00:31:39sur une réserve de matériel quasi limitée et gratuite
00:31:42permet à l'effort de guerre britannique de se poursuivre.
00:31:47Peu de gens comprennent qu'il ne s'agit ni d'un prêt ni d'une location,
00:31:51mais d'un cadeau assorti de conditions.
00:31:59Não é para manter a guerra americana, mas para manter a guerra americana.
00:32:05Nós devemos dar Presidente Roosevelt a poder
00:32:07para sete em motion um industrialismo de guerra
00:32:11que fará possível para England
00:32:14para brácar Hitlerismos do mundo do mundo.
00:32:18E então, todo o caminho a partir,
00:32:21o problema de getting finance para a Brita
00:32:24da U.S. foi a major preocupação.
00:32:28Durante o Segundo World War, Keynes faz uma série de longas visitas
00:32:35para os Estados Unidos,
00:32:36para negociar com a U.S. Treasury
00:32:40em um monte de questões que são de importância.
00:32:45Ele é mantido por as ministrias
00:32:48de sua espécie incrível,
00:32:49de sua espécie incrível e incrível, Lydia.
00:32:53Ele é, durante esse tempo,
00:32:58cronicamente forte
00:33:00da doença de sangue,
00:33:01e ele fez uma decisão
00:33:03que ele quer fazer o melhor que ele pode,
00:33:07porque ele acha que ele pode fazer melhor que qualquer outro,
00:33:09e ele aceita claramente que isso vai costar a sua vida.
00:33:14Keynes é, com Harry Dexter White,
00:33:16o funcionário do Trésor americano,
00:33:18o principal arquiteto dos acordos econômicos de l'après-guerre,
00:33:21signado em 1944 à Bretton Woods.
00:33:25A conférence de Bretton Woods crée
00:33:27o Plan Marshall,
00:33:29a Banco Mundial e o FMI.
00:33:32Em outros termes,
00:33:33a superstructure do mundo moderno,
00:33:36que, à la fin da Segunda Guerra Mundial,
00:33:38conduira a uma reprise econômica
00:33:40tão completa e dinâmica.
00:34:10representantes de 28 países, com Lord Halifax
00:34:11que nós podemos ser agradecidos
00:34:14que a história que nós estamos fazendo
00:34:17do mundo moderno,
00:34:18não é outro capítulo
00:34:19no final da quase endless chronicle
00:34:21da guerra e estripe.
00:34:24da guerra e estripe.
00:34:25Ours é uma missão de paz,
00:34:27não apenas de serviço
00:34:29para os ideais de paz,
00:34:31mas de acción,
00:34:34concrete acción,
00:34:37designed
00:34:38para estabilizar
00:34:39os fundamentos econômicos
00:34:40fundamentos de paz,
00:34:42e estripe,
00:34:43na parte da verdadeira
00:34:45cooperação internacional.
00:34:46Isso foi colocado muito mais
00:34:48no plan americano
00:34:50do que no plan britânico,
00:34:52mas os americãos
00:34:55assumiram o suficiente
00:34:57do Keynes,
00:34:59para perceber que
00:35:01os países
00:35:02que estavam no balance
00:35:04de paz e dificuldades
00:35:06deviam ter um apoio
00:35:08temporário.
00:35:09o abandono do bancor,
00:35:11uma economia internacional
00:35:12hipotética
00:35:13proposada por Keynes
00:35:14como solução alternativa
00:35:15ao FMI
00:35:17é uma das grandes ocasiões
00:35:18manquas da finança internacional.
00:35:21Pósito,
00:35:22o FMI
00:35:23e a Banco Mundial
00:35:24operarão como
00:35:25agentes dos Estados Unidos
00:35:27e dos países ricos,
00:35:28ao detrimento
00:35:28considerável dos países
00:35:29mais pobres.
00:35:33Keynes
00:35:34que o inégalidade
00:35:35das relações
00:35:36comerciales entre
00:35:37países ricos e
00:35:38pobres
00:35:38faz obstáculo
00:35:39à la croissance
00:35:40economica.
00:35:42Ele comprena também
00:35:43que o excedente
00:35:43comercial de uma nation
00:35:45não pode existir
00:35:46que dependendo
00:35:47do déficit de uma outra.
00:35:51Ele propõe de compensar
00:35:53esse desequilíbrio
00:35:54em transferir
00:35:55os balanços
00:35:55positivos e
00:35:56negativos
00:35:56a uma nova banca
00:35:57central
00:35:58e de penalizar
00:36:00os excédentes
00:36:00comerciais
00:36:01não dispensos
00:36:02par des tais
00:36:02d'intérêt
00:36:03elevados.
00:36:06Ele entend
00:36:07assim facilitar
00:36:08uma forte expansão
00:36:09do mercado mundial.
00:36:10do mercado mundial.
00:36:11Mas os americanos
00:36:12não querem saber
00:36:13nada.
00:36:14O crescimento
00:36:15e irreversível
00:36:16da potência britânica
00:36:17deserre as ideias
00:36:19de Keynes
00:36:19sem contar
00:36:21a vontade
00:36:21americana
00:36:22de impover
00:36:22o dólar
00:36:23como moneia de
00:36:23reserva
00:36:24internacional.
00:36:53da potência
00:36:53africadência
00:36:54africadência
00:36:55africada
00:36:55deputando
00:36:55africada
00:36:56as pessoas
00:36:57no plantãoтом
00:37:02têm
00:37:02visto como
00:37:03eles estão
00:37:04para
00:37:05os produtos para
00:37:05os Estados experimentos
00:37:08não pedecer
00:37:09porque eles têm alcançado
00:37:11do mercado para
00:37:11o resto de jas
00:37:12comum do
00:37:13Então, nós vemos que o propósito Harry Dexter White foi muito dançando, não só para o resto do mundo, mas
00:37:22também para os Estados Unidos.
00:37:24E Keynes'a política solucionaria esse problema, mas foi derrotado.
00:37:29O que o World Bank era originalmente para fazer, foi chamado o Internacional Bank de Reconstrução e Desenvolvimento.
00:37:37E foi designado para canalizar dinheiro investido para restaurar as economias de países do mundo do mundo do mundo.
00:37:47Foi uma fundação de reconstrução, como era inicialmente concebido.
00:37:51De novo, a parte do dinheiro veio da América, mas não era uma taxa temporária, era um investimento.
00:37:59As decolonização começou, onde foram esses países de novo independente para conseguir o dinheiro?
00:38:05Eles não tinham o dinheiro, o dinheiro não tinha o dinheiro, o dinheiro tinha que chegar de fora.
00:38:11Você não podia simplesmente deixar o dinheiro para bancários para circularem o dinheiro, porque eles não poderiam circularem o dinheiro.
00:38:20E isso foi o que o IMF foi setado para fazer, para canalizar dinheiro surpreendido em um tempo temporário,
00:38:27para países em balance de pagamento de dificuldades,
00:38:30muito mais ambiciosos do que Keynes' ideia de permanente eliminar surpreendido e deficiência.
00:38:39Então, o Bretton Woods Agreement foi um acordo entre Estados Unidos e Britain,
00:38:46e, em particular, entre Keynes, representando Britain,
00:38:50e Harry Dexter White, representando a US Treasury.
00:38:55E aí, ele era um outro, porque agora sabemos que Harry Dexter White também era um agente soviético,
00:39:03e esperava, realmente, que o mundo mundo post-war seria dirigido por América e Rússia juntamente.
00:39:11Bem, isso não aconteceu, como você sabe, mas você conseguiu esse acordo financeiro.
00:39:15Harry Dexter White tinha um grande respeito para Keynes,
00:39:18Mas a posição de pagamento de pagamento de pagamento de prensa foi muito mais menor,
00:39:22porque Keynes tinha um baguencia de prensa,
00:39:26e a América, você sabe, tinha um papel de dinheiro.
00:39:31Depois da guerra, a situação financeira britânica parece problemática.
00:39:37O primeiro-ministro Clemente Attlee e Keynes évoquem um Dunkerque financiero.
00:39:42O Reino Unido deve contrá rodar um capital financeiro aupar dos Estados Unidos.
00:39:46Ele ocorre à novo o risco de uma penuridade de liquidez e de um lourde déficit na balança dos pagamentos.
00:40:16Mas ele percebeu que quando a britânia estava lendo aos seus alunos e ela não estava repaidido por seus alunos,
00:40:25ele tentou fazer os Estados Unidos entender que tinha que ter uma formula de balança no final da guerra para
00:40:33permitir que todos os países se recuperassem, para permitir que os Estados Unidos se recuperassem. E eu acho que ele
00:40:40falhou nisso.
00:40:41Qualquer pessoa que pode manter um filho de cinco bobos por semana é capaz de fazer miracles, e a maioria
00:40:47dos nós não.
00:40:48Eu acho que eles são miseráveis. Uma das primeiras coisas que o governo do trabalho tem que fazer é colocar
00:40:53eles em um nível de defensação.
00:40:56Em 1946, os Estados Unidos acorde ao Royaume-Uni um prédio strict, conditionné à l'abandon de la préférence impériale
00:41:03e à la mise em place de la convertibilidade em dollars des balances sterling.
00:41:08Keynes, tudo como Staline para o U.R.S.S., reclamou uma subvenção ou, a desfaut, um prédio sem interesse.
00:41:17Keynes, entendendo que, para o Brasil para recuperar, ela precisa de uma grantia, não só.
00:41:24E é um pouco como 1919, quando Keynes compreendeu que, para o uso dos Estados Unidos, o Brasil e o
00:41:32França,
00:41:34a Alemanha e a Europa deveriam ser ajudados para recuperar.
00:41:37A Alemanha e a Europa não tinha capacidade de recuperar.
00:41:40Ela tinha desplazado todos os seus recursos para lutar a guerra.
00:41:44E a maioria dos recursos, a maioria dos produtos e os recursos gerados, foram destruídos.
00:41:49Ainda mais, ela tinha homens e mulheres mortos.
00:41:54Então, você sabe, havia um resultado negativo, se você quiser, de essa investimento.
00:41:58E os Estados Unidos não parecem entender isso.
00:42:02E, claro, Truman não era Rousseffeld.
00:42:06Esse é o problema.
00:42:07Truman não tinha simpática e não comparação do relacionamento que existia entre os Estados Unidos e a Britão para lutar
00:42:17a guerra.
00:42:17E era, na verdade, hostilizado.
00:42:20Truman compreendeu que a Britão é fortaleza e que os Estados Unidos agora estão em posição de maior poder,
00:42:27e agora demandam acesso aos mercados que a Britão tem acesso exclusivo.
00:42:34Truman não reconheceu os sacrifícios que os Estados Unidos fizeram.
00:42:39Os Estados Unidos restam inflexibles.
00:42:42Eles fixam o taux de interesse a 2%.
00:42:46Os Estados Unidos estão longos e difíceis,
00:42:49com um Maynard Keynes acabado na frente da Seine.
00:42:54Esse prédio terminou de ser remboursado em 2006.
00:43:00Agora, você pode dizer que Keynes estava sendo idealista.
00:43:04Você pode dizer que ele era naiva, e que ele era naiva, e que ele era naiva em 1919,
00:43:10quando ele não entendia o papel de Wall Street e o papelão entre ele e Wall Street,
00:43:17em um propósito que foi feita.
00:43:19E aí você pode dizer que ele era naiva em 1946
00:43:23sobre o fato de que a Britão se tornou extraordinariamente fortaleza por guerra
00:43:28e que havia um novo poder no bloco.
00:43:31Eu quero dizer, é um pouco...
00:43:33É um pouco diferente da situação que nós temos agora,
00:43:35onde os Estados Unidos estão perdendo seu poder e o China está crescendo,
00:43:40e você está recebendo o tipo de reação que você vê no Estados Unidos agora,
00:43:44de que está sendo deslodido, se você quiser, de que, de seu pedestal.
00:43:48A Britão tinha sido deslodido de seu pedestal.
00:43:51Agora, Keynes argumentou que, sim, isso poderia ser o caso,
00:43:54mas a Britão tinha feito isso por uma razão altruística,
00:43:58e isso era para derrotar o fascismo,
00:44:01e, portanto, dar ao todo o mundo, a toda a economia, a toda a economia do mundo,
00:44:06a possibilidade de um futuro.
00:44:07E o fato de que os Estados Unidos não conseguiam ver isso
00:44:10foi, para ele, deprimente e despoirante.
00:44:16Aucun de nos contemporâneos não era mais inteligente que Keynes.
00:44:20Aucun n'a feito menos esforço para dissimá-lo.
00:44:25Nós somos todos Keynesis hoje.
00:44:30O que é o idealismo, por um lado,
00:44:33mas é um meio realismo, realmente, porque a América sofreu.
00:44:37O fato da questão é que, quando a Britão e a Alemanha não se recuperavam,
00:44:42e isso foi muito tempo depois da guerra,
00:44:45para esses dois países se recuperam o despoirante do despoirante,
00:44:48e assim, a América não tinha ninguém a vender todos os produtos do,
00:44:53e isso tinha sido operado em full capacidade durante a guerra,
00:44:57e, de repente, não, não, e isso cortou a produção dos Estados Unidos.
00:45:01Keynes queria que o todo o mundo tivesse tínhado para todos.
00:45:06E foi extraordinariamente importante para Keynes's inner strength
00:45:10para ter passionate fidelidade
00:45:14para certos grandes lugares,
00:45:17como Henry James chamou-se de eles.
00:45:19Uma de elas era King's College, Cambridge,
00:45:23onde ele tinha as ruas mosto de sua vida.
00:45:26O outro era o Bloomsbury Square,
00:45:29onde ele e o Bloomsbury set lived.
00:45:31O terceiro era a farm que ele leased
00:45:36de Lord Gage beneath the Sussex Downs.
00:45:39Tilton, que eu vivi em 20 anos,
00:45:42era uma muito boa farmhouse.
00:45:45Não era uma grande casa.
00:45:48Era uma moda,
00:45:50uma moda,
00:45:50uma famosa,
00:45:51uma famosa,
00:45:53uma famosa,
00:45:54com algumas famosas.
00:45:56Um,
00:45:57um,
00:45:57até o quanto a vida dele,
00:46:00um,
00:46:00um,
00:46:00que ele era,
00:46:01um,
00:46:02um,
00:46:04um,
00:46:04um,
00:46:05um,
00:46:15um,
00:46:16um,
00:46:17um,
00:46:17que devem ter sido um jornalismo em sua voz
00:46:21era imensurável para ele.
00:46:26Ele cherished a landscape, ele cherished a vida da vida.
00:46:30Foi justamente na rua de Charleston,
00:46:33a casa onde alguns dos outros membros de Bloomsbury
00:46:37viviam.
00:46:39E ele tomou parte em coisas como bombas
00:46:43e comunidade eventos lá.
00:46:46Eles importaram a ele de uma forma que não se pode colocar em palavras.
00:46:54A influência de Keynes se ameaça depois de 1970.
00:46:58A inflação causada pela alta alta do preço do pétrole
00:47:01e pelas impostas massas ligadas à a guerra do Vietnã,
00:47:04favorece o sucesso dos economistas monetários.
00:47:08Os outros contestam a eficácia das teorias keynesianas
00:47:11e precomendam de jogar na massa monetária.
00:47:14a quantidade de dinheiro em circulação.
00:47:21O que aconteceu em 1971 é que as propostas de Breton Woods
00:47:27foram tiradas à Breton Woods.
00:47:46e o que foi feito pelo que foi feito no sistema de precoção,
00:47:48e não queria o sistema de precoção.
00:47:51E o sistema de precoção,
00:47:52capital control era um essencial parte
00:47:54da Breton Woods system.
00:47:56It was what's called finance was repressed and this again reflected Keynes's view
00:48:05let finance be primarily national. And the second thing that happened was that Keynes began to be
00:48:13talked about as being about fiscal policy. His main preoccupation was not with resolving fiscal
00:48:21policy but with preventing financial crisis by focusing on monetary policy and the financial
00:48:28system and in particular the central banks, the currency but also the rate of interest. He
00:48:35regarded the rate of interest as being causal of crises and not the consequence of crises.
00:48:42That is all lost. So gradually it was all eased up and that led to the collapse of the fixed
00:48:48exchange rate system in 1971. The Keynesian ascendancy sort of reverted to business as usual.
00:49:01L'amour de l'argent en tant que possession, par opposition à l'amour de l'argent en tant que
00:49:07moyen de goûter au plaisir et aux réalités de la vie, sera reconnu pour ce qu'il est,
00:49:13c'est-à-dire une affection morbide assez répugnante, un de ces penchants semi-criminelles,
00:49:20semi-pathologiques que l'on confie en frissonnant aux spécialistes des maladies mentales.
00:49:27Cain's was very clear. He changed Marx's formulation of labour versus capital into labour and industry
00:49:35versus finance. And he argued that if you let the finance sector and the financial system spin out of
00:49:43control, if you give them all the power, forget labour and industry. Both are going to be hurt by that.
00:49:50And furthermore, he said, it leads to what we had pre-1914, obscene levels of inequality.
00:49:58It's obscene the levels of wealth that the one percent enjoy. And he argued if you do that,
00:50:05you are going to disempower society.
00:50:10Cain's worked very well for the period 1945 to 1970. That's about 25 years of post-war period,
00:50:18which was the golden age for western capitalism. Because it was then, with the help of the
00:50:24government, delivering on higher, ever higher standards of living, two, three percent growth
00:50:29every year, real growth, higher wages, very low inflation, no unemployment. And it was a golden age,
00:50:37golden age for the working class. Cain's and full employment policies were commitments,
00:50:44which no governments had ever made before to maintain full employment. If the private sector
00:50:52couldn't provide the jobs, somehow government would fill the gap. But of course the hard-nosed people
00:51:00would say, of course it couldn't last. It was a bit of a fool's paradise that you'd go on
00:51:04having all this in perpetuity forever and ever. But of course, I think it could have gone on with better,
00:51:15more management, and the Americans needn't have got into the Vietnam War.
00:51:31This war is instead the very logical end of the American system that we built,
00:51:38the very logical end of the American way of living.
00:51:42the American way of living. You know, if you, if when you're already at full employment, you pile on
00:51:46extra, extra government spending and don't raise taxes, you're going to get inflation. I mean, Cain
00:51:53said that in, in 1940 in his pamphlet, How to Pay for the War. And the American legislative system,
00:52:01somehow, didn't allow for taxes to, you know, be put on in time to stop a really big rise in
00:52:10prices,
00:52:10and that spilled over into the rest of the world because, you know, they, they, they were, it was
00:52:16very much a dollar, dollar dominated world. So the system came crashing down.
00:52:24And of course, a lot of people have always argued from, from that, that Cain's is, Cain's is not all
00:52:32right for normal times. Cain's is good for emergencies like wars or COVID-19 epidemics,
00:52:39but not good for normal times. But for Cain's ideas to have some traction,
00:52:45it would have to defeat finance. We would have to defeat Wall Street in the city of London,
00:52:51to put it crudely. And he was also quite discreet about it. He was perfectly well aware that he was
00:52:58hated by the, by the city of London. He was perfectly well aware that when he spoke about the euthanasia
00:53:05of the rentier, that that really annoyed the finance sector. And, and, and, and Roosevelt makes
00:53:12a speech, a very famous speech in which he says, I know that Wall Street hates me. I know they'd
00:53:17like
00:53:17to kill me. I don't care. Right. Roosevelt adopts a lot of Cain's ideas and moves power from Wall Street
00:53:26into the democratically elected treasury, a department, right, of, of run by a democratically
00:53:33elected, uh, president. And the idea that, you know, from 2010 till now, we still have austerity,
00:53:40and austerity is dominant in Europe would have horrified Cain's because he would have recognized
00:53:46that when the financial system craters the economy, when it blows up the economy,
00:53:52the very least a government that's been reluctant to manage the financial system should do is to help,
00:53:59you know, fill the crater, to help revive activity. Cain's would have said, um, you know,
00:54:05we have to manage the system. You can't let it spin out of control. I have to tell you that
00:54:10we've allowed
00:54:11the credit system, the financial system to spin out of control. Lorsque dans un pays, le développement
00:54:18du capital devient le sous-produit de l'activité d'un casino, ils risquent de s'accomplir en des
00:54:24conditions défectueuses. We have something called shadow banking. We have a financial system which
00:54:33operates, if you like, in the stratosphere, not on the high street, where there is no regulation, where
00:54:38governments and central banks don't interfere in their activities, right. And so we've allowed,
00:54:45if you like, the massive expansion of debt. This is excessive credit creation, excessive production,
00:54:52excessive consumption and excessive extraction of the earth's finite resources.
00:55:00Keynes savait que le capitalisme devait être amélioré et humanisé pour ne pas succomber à un cocktail
00:55:06d'événements économiques, de mécontentements populaires et parfois même de révolutions. On a vu les
00:55:15politiques économiques contemporaines puiser dans l'œuvre de Keynes, en particulier pendant la pandémie de
00:55:20Covid-19. Au moment de la crise de 2008, le premier ministre britannique Gordon Brown et d'autres ont utilisé
00:55:30les
00:55:30théories keynésiennes pour sortir le monde de la débâcle.
00:55:35Keynes n'a jamais parlé de la croissance. Il a parlé des niveaux d'activité. Il était concerné à voir
00:55:42si le niveau de l'emploi
00:55:45de l'emploi de l'emploi de l'emploi de l'emploi, est-ce que c'est plus normal ?
00:55:48Et il était de peu
00:55:49l'emploi de l'emploi ? Est-ce que c'était trop fort ? Est-ce que les autres ont
00:55:56dû produire ? Ou est-ce que les autres ont dû
00:56:15A mesma regra autodestrutiva do calculo financeiro
00:56:18regia cada aspecto de existência.
00:56:21Nós destruímos a beleza das campanhas
00:56:23porque as splendidas de uma nature
00:56:25que não pertence a ninguém
00:56:27não têm nenhuma valor econômica.
00:56:29Nós seríamos capazes de te dar o sol e as estes
00:56:32porque eles não têm nenhum dividendo.
00:56:45Ou o mundo vai chegar a um fim.
00:56:48O problema com os crenças de crescimento
00:56:49é que o ecossistema, o planeta,
00:56:53tem apenas tanta capacidade.
00:56:56Nós todos sabemos que há apenas tanta atmosfera,
00:56:59há apenas tanta água,
00:57:00há apenas tanta terra.
00:57:02E se você expande a extração e a exploração
00:57:07dos recursos finais,
00:57:09você vai destruir o planeta.
00:57:12E isso é o que nós estamos fazendo no momento.
00:57:13E nós chamamos de crescimento.
00:57:16É muito extraordinário.
00:57:18É como se derrubar em uma guerra
00:57:20e dizer que nós não podemos fazer nada
00:57:22para reubrir o que nós destruímos.
00:57:24E ainda podemos facilmente fazer isso
00:57:26sabendo que o sistema monetário que nós temos.
00:57:31Keynes foi convidado
00:57:32que as economias nasionais
00:57:34deveriam trabalhar para o bem de todos.
00:57:36Ele tinha a coração a comunidade
00:57:38do capitalismo
00:57:39destinado a permitir que as pessoas
00:57:41de mener uma existência criativa
00:57:43e bem amplia.
00:57:45Ele colocou as ideias em prática
00:57:47através de muitos engajamentos culturais
00:57:49e de a criação do Conselho
00:57:51e do Conselho dos Artes
00:57:52em 1946.
00:57:54Então, nós temos que sermos um corpo permanente.
00:57:58Independente na Constituição,
00:58:01livre da tape de rádio,
00:58:03mas financiado pela Treasury
00:58:04e ultimamente responsável pelo Parlamento.
00:58:08Nosso nome é
00:58:09para ser
00:58:10o Conselho de Arte do Great Britain.
00:58:13Eu espero que você nos chamasse
00:58:15o Conselho de Arte do Short.
00:58:25O Conselho de Arte do Short
00:58:47de Keynes,
00:58:49o Economist,
00:58:50que sofra de surmenage
00:58:51e de graves problemas cardiaques,
00:58:53a donné sa vie
00:58:54para o país
00:58:54como se ele era
00:58:55tomber
00:58:56sobre o campo de batalha.
00:59:00O dicê
00:59:01que sem os sois
00:59:02constantes
00:59:03e a joia de viver
00:59:04de sa femme,
00:59:05ele não teria
00:59:05nem participado
00:59:06à Bretton Woods.
00:59:10John Maynard Keynes
00:59:11s'est eitin
00:59:12no matin de Pâques 1946.
00:59:16Ses teorias
00:59:17sobre a criação
00:59:18de monnaies,
00:59:19a fiscalidade,
00:59:20a valor econômica
00:59:21dos tais do intérêts
00:59:22e a importância
00:59:23de fazer en sorte
00:59:24que a vida econômica
00:59:25funciona para todos,
00:59:27restam no centro
00:59:28do debate econômico
00:59:29contemporâneo
00:59:29e das soluções
00:59:31necessárias
00:59:31as muitas dificuldades
00:59:32que afronta hoje
00:59:33nosso mundo.
01:00:02A CIDADE NO BRASIL
01:00:31A CIDADE NO BRASIL