00:00Another team that really, really needs a win, Tim.
00:04I mean, their end of their schedule is rough.
00:06You look at LSU sitting there at six and three.
00:09They'll be welcoming in Texas.
00:11Death Valley at night.
00:13LSU lay in four.
00:15Texas with a nice win last week, looking pretty darn good.
00:20And this line has moved.
00:22It has even grown.
00:23The points total, however, has shrank and shrank considerably,
00:27opening at 54 and a half.
00:29Right now, you can see it at 46 and a half.
00:33Is there a side that you like in this?
00:35I mean, this is a desperate LSU team at home.
00:38You know, they lose this.
00:39They may end up being seven and five, because I believe they have Tennessee
00:44coming up after this.
00:45Yeah.
00:46Yeah, this reminds me of two games so far this year.
00:50It reminds me a little bit of Notre Dame-Miami of last week,
00:52and it reminds me of Ole Miss at Texas.
00:55And what that game, as we talked about it on this show,
00:59it was like, why is Texas a three-and-a-half-point favor?
01:02Remember that week it was Sark's got to go, and Arch is, you know,
01:07going to transfer.
01:08It was all this pressure on Texas going into that game, and they delivered.
01:14Now, I know it got a little murky late in that one.
01:16They scored a late touchdown to win by seven and cover.
01:20And then you think back to Notre Dame-Miami last week.
01:22What did we say going into that game?
01:24This is a must-have for Notre Dame.
01:26There's no ifs, ands, or buts about it.
01:27They have to win this game.
01:29And that's what I see on Saturday night, right?
01:32They get punked, LSU being they, last week against Alabama.
01:36And now the folks down in Baton Rouge are not happy, right?
01:40They were thrilled to go get Lane Kiffin.
01:42They were thrilled to get rid of Brian Kelly.
01:44And now they're six and three.
01:46And they're like, well, we could have been six and three under Brian Kelly, right?
01:49This is a desperation spot for LSU.
01:52And I'm not saying that Texas is going to go in there saying,
01:56yay, we don't have to win this game.
01:57Of course they do.
01:58They want to keep improving their resume as well.
02:02But at night, desperation, backs against the wall.
02:06I think the line's telling you the story here.
02:09And I do think, even though they did not perform well last week on the scoreboard,
02:15let's look inside that box score a little bit, LSU and Alabama.
02:19They outgained Alabama 457 to 285.
02:23They missed four fourth downs.
02:27They are minus two in the turnover margin.
02:30And if LSU cleans it up, and I know that's a big if,
02:33if they clean it up, they take care of business here.
02:35So you guys know me.
02:37I've been doing this all year with you guys.
02:39I don't like to lay points all that much.
02:41I'm in on LSU here.
02:42I think this is a must-have spot.
02:44As you mentioned, Bobby, they got to win this game.
02:47And then their eyes turn to going to Tennessee next week.
02:51So, you know, I've said it before, the points spread sometimes tells you a story.
02:55This line isn't going down towards three.
02:57It's going up.
02:58So, I laid three and a half.
03:01There's some three and a halves out there.
03:02There's a four out there.
03:04I think LSU wins this game and gets a big one on Saturday night in Baton Rouge.
03:09Am I a coward for just going money line?
03:11I don't know what it is about that four and a half.
03:13This game screams like win by a field goal.
03:16I don't know what it is.
03:17I'm having trouble trying to pick it.
03:20You're not.
03:21I mean, look, you know, you'll get the gambling.
03:24If you put this out there on Twitter, you'll get the gambling people coming at you.
03:29You know, long term, you're not going to win laying big money lines.
03:32And I understand that.
03:33But, you know, college basketball is underway.
03:36Let's just, as an example, steal.
03:38If I have like a two and a half or three point favorite that I like, I never lay that.
03:44I'm always looking at the money line because weird things happen at the end of games.
03:48You got, I think there was a game over the weekend, Nevada and St. Mary's.
03:52I think Nevada hit a, or St. Mary's hit like a three at the buzzer.
03:56And the point spread was one and a half and lost by one.
03:58So, no, if you want to lay the money line, I certainly would not push back against that.
04:04But, you know, there's a reason those money lines are a little bit more expensive.
04:08So, that's up to your bankroll and what you want to do with it.
04:11But you are definitely not a coward for thinking that laying the money line is a safer proposition.
04:17It's just, it's more of a painful loss if Texas does go in there and win.
