00:00So what next in the big NVIDIA scandal?
00:03How will it impact U.S.-China's AI race?
00:06And what could happen to NVIDIA itself?
00:10The big company that's at the heart of this gathering storm.
00:15Joining me now, Brian Wong, non-resident honorary fellow,
00:19Center for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
00:22Joins us from Hong Kong.
00:23Raymond Vickery, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Commerce,
00:26is joining me from Washington, D.C.
00:29and John A. Blank, former advisor to President Biden
00:31from the National University of Singapore.
00:34Good to have all of you on the show.
00:36Brian Wong, you go first.
00:38What do you think are the immediate implications
00:40with everyday fresh revelations coming out in this scandal
00:45that perhaps even as a hint, more than a hint, of Chinese espionage?
00:51Well, thank you very much.
00:52I think it's imperative that we differentiate the signal from the noise.
00:56And as with all of these salacious scandals surrounding celebrities,
01:00especially high-profile figures in the tech space,
01:03there's a tendency to mix myth, fact, half-myth and half-fact altogether.
01:08One thing that we know for sure is that regardless of whether or not
01:11the espionage allegations are in fact, you know, to be substantiated,
01:15are in fact voracious, one thing that we can know for sure is that
01:18there's going to be a push for greater securitisation
01:20from both Beijing and also Washington.
01:22And by that, I mean restrictions upon export of advanced models
01:25and chips and technologies from Beijing,
01:28but also, of course, a tightening of access to information,
01:31access to cutting-edge technologies, to chips, hardware, software,
01:35you name it, coming from Washington.
01:36And so I see these as structural tendencies and forces
01:39that frankly had long really been cooking under the surface.
01:42And yet, of course, with this particular scandal, you know,
01:44those advocating for this position within Washington and Beijing
01:48have gained the upper hand, so to speak, in a political tussle.
01:51So I wouldn't read too much into this scandal,
01:53if I could be honest with you.
01:54You're saying you won't read too much into this scandal,
01:58to be honest, but, John, this is going to have repercussions,
02:02isn't it, particularly in Washington,
02:04given the fact that there are, again, allegations
02:06that members of the Trump administration were informed by the CIA
02:10of potential allegations of Chinese espionage,
02:14of Alice Wang being used, in a way, by the Chinese
02:18to acquire sensitive information
02:21and possible chip technology transfers?
02:24That's right.
02:25The reports are that Mr. Trump was briefed on this
02:31over a year ago and took no action,
02:34and that he was reminded by his secretary of state in May,
02:37and then after that brought Jensen Huang with him to Beijing
02:41and took no action apart from reportedly selling over a million dollars
02:47of NVIDIA stock,
02:49and that his commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick,
02:52was at least highly suspiciously open
02:58to the idea of shipping a lot of very sensitive chips to China.
03:03So, the Democrats will be probing all of these things,
03:08but the real big picture here is what it means
03:11for the mad race towards ever more powerful AI,
03:16and hopefully that is where this may toss some cold water
03:21on a very dangerous pursuit.
03:24Where is that race going, Raymond Vickery?
03:26Because this Chinese-America AI race,
03:30many believe, is the defining race of the 21st century.
03:34Do you believe that this now makes that race
03:37even more competitive
03:39and possibly leads to even greater battles
03:46taking place between the two countries?
03:51Well, yes, I do.
03:52I think that this shows the ill wisdom,
03:58the problem of outsourcing American foreign policy
04:04to a corporate executive.
04:07The NVIDIA organization controls about 90%,
04:1280% to 90% of the world's advanced chips
04:17in this particular area.
04:19It's the lifeblood of artificial intelligence.
04:24And unfortunately, President Trump
04:27and the Trump administration,
04:29particularly Secretary Lutnik over at my old agency
04:34at Commerce,
04:35have been content really to follow
04:38a transactional great man theory
04:41of international relations,
04:44much like a real estate deal,
04:46where you have the great people
04:48who are CEO types
04:50and they decide
04:51and then you go forward from there.
04:54That's a completely inadequate way
04:57to wage peace and prosperity in the world.
05:02And I would submit
05:04that the ripple effects of this
05:06are going to be very, very wide
05:10because it's not a case
05:11of just being able to replace
05:14an ordinary CEO.
05:16President Trump and his administration
05:19have founded the U.S. investment
05:23in data centers
05:25really with this company.
05:28And this company has centralized
05:31all the power within John Wong.
05:35He has some 60 direct reports to him,
05:38where the average corporate report,
05:41the direct reports,
05:42would be some 12.
05:44So this is a serious matter
05:46and it's going to have dislocation
05:49immediately in Washington.
05:52And hopefully,
05:54as saner heads are going to prevail,
05:56we're going to get back
05:57to some semblance of order
05:58and institutional responsibility.
06:03You know, that's a Washington perspective.
06:05What about the Beijing perspective, Brian?
06:08You're in Hong Kong.
06:09Do you believe...
06:10How will China respond?
06:12There's a meeting, of course,
06:13between the Chinese president
06:15and President Trump
06:16scheduled next week
06:17at the APEC summit.
06:18But will issues like this at all,
06:20will the AI race at all be raised?
06:22And how will Beijing in general
06:23look at these allegations
06:25of Chinese espionage?
06:28Well, thank you very much.
06:29I cannot claim to speak
06:31on behalf of Beijing
06:32and nor have the intention
06:33to do so.
06:34But if I could be very blunt with you,
06:36the primary focus
06:37of the Chinese leadership,
06:38as far as I'm aware,
06:39is to focus on domestic applications
06:40of AI to revitalise economic growth
06:43amidst how sluggishly
06:45it's performed,
06:45given longstanding challenges
06:47with total factor productivity
06:48and over-ossified
06:49state-owned enterprise sector.
06:51And of course,
06:52concerns with its ageing demographics.
06:54The preoccupations with AI
06:56are thus largely internally oriented.
06:58They're not, as a country,
06:59on a whole,
07:00interest in dominating global AI,
07:02reaching ASI,
07:03or achieving all these
07:04sort of interesting,
07:05sort of far-fetched,
07:07outlandish goals
07:08that are hypothetically conjured
07:10and imagined
07:10by a very small minority of folks
07:12in the Silicon Valley
07:13as the Holy Grail.
07:14And in all honesty,
07:15for 99.99% of the populations
07:17in both China and the US
07:19and the world beyond,
07:20I don't think the AI question
07:21is a race.
07:22Because what good
07:23is this super frontier,
07:24super Zervantik AI model
07:26for the average Joe
07:28who just needs to figure out
07:29an answer to the question
07:30or to find the easiest shortcut
07:32to the hospital
07:33and medical healthcare services,
07:35which frankly are not,
07:36you know, widely available
07:37or indeed affordable
07:38in many countries around the world.
07:40So I just don't think
07:41there's a race
07:42that we should be looking at here,
07:43even if certain politicians,
07:44certain tech pros,
07:45and of course,
07:46certain members
07:46of the security apparatus
07:47would like to have us believe
07:48that this is a binary,
07:49Manikian struggle.
07:50That's a story.
07:51That's a narrative.
07:52But let's not let them get away
07:54with telling us that story
07:55and shoving it down our throats.
07:57Sir, so very quickly,
07:58are you saying therefore
07:59that the Chinese
07:59will just ignore
08:01these allegations
08:01that are made?
08:03Well, I think if the Chinese
08:04were wise,
08:05they'd understand
08:06that the best means
08:07of proving critics wrong
08:08is not to be,
08:09you know,
08:10deeply vociferous
08:11and boisterous
08:12and castigating these rumours,
08:14but instead
08:14to prove them wrong
08:15with facts.
08:16And facts often speak louder
08:18than protesting rhetoric.
08:21John A. Blank,
08:22you know,
08:23the recent elections
08:24in America
08:25saw a public reaction
08:27against what was described
08:28as corporate greed.
08:29Do you believe
08:30all these allegations
08:31are only going to
08:32sort of strengthen
08:33the belief
08:34that corporates
08:35are unaccountable,
08:36that their CEOs
08:37have much too much power,
08:40and therefore,
08:41it's time to sort of
08:42in some way
08:43control them
08:44and their access
08:45to political power
08:46as well?
08:48Yes, I do.
08:49I think the bigger issue
08:51is the one that
08:52Brian has quite rightly
08:54noted.
08:55The American
08:56elite narrative
08:57is that
08:58we must
08:59charge ahead
09:01to create
09:02the most dangerous
09:03AI technologies
09:04ever imagined,
09:06because if we don't,
09:08then China will.
09:08And that narrative
09:10was wrong yesterday,
09:12and it's been proven
09:13wrong today.
09:14China never was
09:16as intent
09:17on forcing
09:18the frontier forward,
09:19in part because
09:21they're more concerned
09:22concerned with actually
09:23delivering products
09:25from AI,
09:26but also because
09:27they know that
09:28whatever American labs
09:29come up with,
09:30it's much easier
09:32for them simply
09:33to take the product
09:34than to re-engineer
09:36the whole thing.
09:37They can do it
09:37through espionage,
09:38as they appear
09:39to have done
09:40with Jensen Wong.
09:40They can do it
09:41through a variety
09:42of other methods,
09:44and that helps
09:45explain why
09:46this entire narrative,
09:47we have to
09:49accelerate the
09:50robot apocalypse
09:50because China will
09:51do it if we won't,
09:52is a false narrative
09:54and really needs
09:55to be put in
09:56the graveyard.
09:58Raymond Vickery,
09:5920 seconds.
10:00I know that's a
10:01short time,
10:01but in the world
10:02of AI,
10:02we can do that.
10:03If you had to
10:04just sum it up,
10:06what happens next
10:07very quickly?
10:09I think what happens
10:11next is
10:12the United States
10:13has to fall back
10:15and really figure out
10:17whether it's going
10:18to have a policy
10:19strategy
10:20and partners
10:21based on principles
10:23going forward
10:24rather than just
10:25relying on
10:27high-tech executives
10:29to make policy.
10:30Okay.
10:31Very well put there,
10:33Raymond Vickery.
10:33Great to have
10:34three very fine voices
10:35joining us on this
10:37NVIDIA scandal
10:38as fresh revelations
10:40come in by the day.
10:42Thank you all very much
10:43for being here
10:44on the news today.
10:45Good to have you.
10:47Thank you for having us.
